Name: 【佛瑞德扎卡瑞亞觀點】川普與核子穩定性的崩潰！ (Fareed Zakaria’s takes on Trump and the collapse of nuclear stability)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T16:53:20.000Z
Duration: 24 min 23 s

other MAGA luminaries often proclaim that the grave danger facing the west is civilizational erasure, which they claim is happening in Europe.

其他 MAGA 名人經常宣稱，西方面臨的嚴重危險是 civilizational erasure，他們聲稱這正在歐洲發生。

Through its dangerous and misguided approach toward identity and immigration, Europe is destroying the West's distinctive legacy.

歐洲透過其危險且錯誤的 identity 和 immigration 方法，正在摧毀西方 distinctive legacy。

But the West's defining character has not been tribal or religious solidarity that describes most of the world.

但西方最鮮明的特質並非描述世界上大多數地方的 tribal solidarity 或 religious solidarity。

The West's precious, almost unique achievement has been the limitation of state power.

西方寶貴、幾乎獨一無二的成就是 limitation of state power。

Since Magna Carta in 1215, the west gradually placed constraints on rulers through rights for citizens, independent courts, a sovereign church, and

自從 1215 年的 Magna Carta 起，西方透過 rights for citizens、independent courts、sovereign church，以及

sanctity of private property，逐漸對統治者施加 constraints。

That inheritance is what made the west democratic and prosperous.

那份 inheritance 才讓西方 democratic 且 prosperous。

這也是它之所以能 stable 的原因。

Citizens could dissent, businesses could invest, and civil society could flourish because power was bounded by law.

人民可以表達異議，企業可以投資，公民社會也能蓬勃發展，因為權力受到法律的約束。

The second Trump administration has moved sharply to erode these traditions.

第二任川普政府已大幅度地侵蝕這些傳統。

In Minneapolis, two people exercising their First Amendment rights were shot dead.

在明尼阿波利斯，兩位行使憲法第一修正案權利的人被槍殺。

There and elsewhere, federal officers have been operating masked, often in unmarked vehicles, making arrests without judicial warrants.

在那裡和其他地方，聯邦官員蒙面行動，常乘坐無標誌的車輛，在沒有法院授權令的情況下逮捕人。

The optics and the felt reality are of authoritarian policing state power that is unbounded.

這視覺呈現和實際感受，都像是未受約束的威權警察國家權力。

This administration has used its powers in stunningly aggressive ways, often slow walking, its obedience of court rulings delaying them so much as to be sometimes defying them de facto.

這個政府以令人震驚的侵略性方式行使權力，經常拖延，對法院判決的服從延遲到有時形同違抗。

The Trump administration has declared war on civil society media, universities, non governmental organizations, law firms, and

川普政府已對公民社會媒體、大學、非政府組織、律師事務所，以及

The Justice Department's plans to investigate organizations like George Soros Open Society Foundations, with the president describing it as racketeering, signals something dark the criminalization of disfavored groups.

司法部計畫調查像喬治·索羅斯的開放社會基金會這類組織，總統形容這是敲詐，這預示著一個黑暗的趨勢：將不受歡迎的團體刑事化。

It is the logic of Hungary and Russia imported into American politics.

這是把匈牙利和俄羅斯的邏輯，引進美國政治。

You don't rebut critics, you investigate them.

你不是反駁批評者，而是調查他們。

When the government threatens law firms through security clearances, access to federal buildings, and

當政府透過安全許可、聯邦建築物的使用權，以及

the insinuation that representing the wrong client carries consequences, it's telling the country quietly but unmistakably, the protections of due process are conditional if you choose a firm that the state does not like.

暗示代理不對的客戶會付出代價來威脅律師事務所時，這是在悄悄但明確地告訴全國，如果你選擇一個國家不喜歡的律師事務所，正當程序的保障是有條件的。

Universities, too, have been frontally attacked and investigated on an unprecedented scale.

大學也遭到前所未有的大規模正面攻擊和調查。

You do not have to love the modern American university to see the danger here.

你不一定要喜歡現代美國的大學，才能看到這裡的危險。

The state is using funding to compel political concessions from independent institutions.

國家正利用資金，強迫獨立機構做出政治讓步。

The press, always the early warning system of a free society, has faced what can only be described as relentless intimidation.

媒體，永遠是自由社會的預警系統，已經面臨只能被形容為無情恐嚇的對待。

Media outlets are sued and regulatory powers used publicly in an apparent attempt to coerce owners to toe the party line.

媒體機構遭到訴訟，監管權力被公開使用，明顯是想脅迫業者遵守黨的路線。

In August, a federal judge found that the Trump administration's Federal Trade Commission investigation into the left wing group Media Matters likely violated the group's First Amendment rights and looked like political retaliation, not neutral regulation.

八月時，一位聯邦法官裁定，川普政府對左翼團體 Media Matters 的聯邦貿易委員會調查，很可能侵犯了該團體的憲法第一修正案權利，看起來像是政治報復，而非中立監管。

The administration is expanding state power within the economy less as a rule setter than as a deal maker and disciplinarian.

政府擴張經濟中的國家權力，與其說是規則制定者，不如說是交易撮合者和紀律執行者。

There's a world of difference between industrial policy that works through published criteria and competitive grants and a system where CEOs are summoned to the White House, punished, rewarded, or encouraged to comply.

透過公開標準和競爭性補助來運作的產業政策，與執行長被召喚到白宮、受到懲罰、獎勵或鼓勵遵守的制度，有著天壤之別。

When regulators hint that routine approvals, renewals, or reviews may depend on whether companies adopt or abandon certain policies, capitalism stops being a competitive arena and starts resembling a patronage system.

當監管機構暗示例行性的準許、續約或審查，可能取決於公司是否採納或放棄某些政策時，資本主義就不再是競爭的競技場，而開始像個恩庇體系。

And then hovering over all of this is the administration's appetite for using security state tools not on extremists, but

而這一切之上，還籠罩著政府利用國家安全工具的胃口，但對象不是極端分子，

Consider the push to designate some antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations, a concept so vague and ill defined that even national security experts warn it could become a catch all.

試想一下，將某些反法西斯團體指定為外國恐怖組織的推動，這個概念如此模糊不清，甚至國家安全專家都警告，它可能變成一個萬能的標籤。

Under existing law, knowingly providing material support for a designated foreign terrorist organization can carry up to 20 years in prison, and

根據現行法律，明知故犯地為指定的外國恐怖組織提供實質支持，最高可判處 20 年監禁，

support can be construed broadly enough to include trivial assistance.

而支持的定義可以非常廣泛，甚至包含微不足道的協助。

That is how democracies decay, not by announcing that dissent is illegal, but

這就是民主國家如何衰敗，不是透過宣佈異議非法，

by reclassifying dissent as something else.

而是將異議重新歸類為其他東西。

The administration talks about the west as if it were a heritage museum.

政府談論西方，彷彿它是一個傳承博物館。

But the West's real genius is institutional law that binds all, the strong and the weak.

但西方真正的天才在於約束所有人、強者和弱者的制度性法律。

Liberty protected not by benevolent leaders but by constrained ones, a civil society robust enough to oppose the state without fearing that opposition will be treated as a criminal act.

自由受到約束而非仁慈領導者的保護，公民社會夠強大，足以反對國家，而不必擔心這種反對會被視為犯罪行為。

It is a bargain, power constrained, rights protected, coercion accountable.

它是一種協議，權力受到約束，權利受到保護，強制受到問責。

The greatest threat to the west is not that it is becoming too tolerant or too concerned about individual rights.

對西方最大的威脅不是它變得過於寬容或過於關注個人權利。

It is it is the expansion of state power making the west just like every other society in history, with a strong rule, the weak.

而是國家權力的擴張，讓西方變得跟歷史上其他社會一樣，強者統治弱者。

When seen in that light, we can say plainly that civilizational erasure is indeed happening.

從這個角度來看，我們可以很清楚地說，civilizational erasure 確實正在發生。

It is here, where the American government grows comfortable with unbounded power and the country grows accustomed to living with it.

而是在這裡，美國政府對不受約束的權力感到安逸，國家也習慣了與之共存。

We all sense that the world is entering a more uncertain phase of alliances feel shakier, trade is fragmenting, and

我們都感覺到世界正進入一個更不確定的階段，同盟變得不穩固，貿易正在瓦解，

But beneath these visible shifts lies something less discussed and more dangerous the slow collapse of nuclear stability.

但在這些明顯的轉變之下，存在著一個較少被討論且更危險的現象——核子穩定性的緩慢崩潰。

For much of the Cold War, people were terrified that a world with nuclear weapons would inevitably lead to proliferation and that wars would end up nuclear.

在冷戰時期的大部分時間裡，人們都害怕擁有核武的世界最終會導致核武擴散，戰爭也會變成核戰。

After all, rarely in human history has a weapon sat unused in arsenals.

畢竟，在人類歷史上，很少有武器會被長期閒置在軍火庫裡卻從未使用。

The arsenals remained, but they were bound by treaties, habits and doctrines about restraint.

軍火庫依然存在，但它們受到條約、習慣和剋制原則的約束。

戰略武器限制協議限制了數量。

Deterrence relationships were relatively clear.

Proliferation was constrained, if imperfectly, by norms and pressure.

雖然不完美，但規範和壓力約束了擴散。

It was not a safe world, but it was a stable one.

這不是一個安全的が、但卻是一個穩定的世界。

The clearest marker was the expiration this week of New Start, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia.

最明顯的標誌是「新戰略武器裁減條約」本週到期，這是美國和俄羅斯之間僅存的核軍備控制條約。

There are now no legally binding limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than 50 years.

這是 50 多年來，世界上兩個最大核武庫首次沒有法律約束力的限制。

Some hope this will be a brief interregnum, and efforts have begun to find a successor agreement.

有些人希望這只是一個短暫的過渡期，並且已經開始尋找繼任協議的努力。

But the broader context is not encouraging.

When New Start was signed in 2010, it reflected a different world.

2010 年簽署「新戰略武器裁減條約」時，它反映的是一個不同的世界。

China's nuclear arsenal was small and oriented toward what was called minimum deterrence.

中國的核武庫規模不大，而且是為了所謂的最低限度威懾而建立的。

Now, as Eric Edelman and Franklin Miller write in Foreign affairs, that world no longer exists.

現在，正如 Eric Edelman 和 Franklin Miller 在《外交事務》雜誌上所寫的那樣，那個世界已經不復存在。

Russia has modernized roughly 95% of its strategic nuclear forces, at least according to President Vladimir Putin.

至少根據 Vladimir Putin 總統的說法，俄羅斯已經更新了約 95% 的戰略核武庫。

More worrying, Moscow has built a vast regional nuclear arsenal.

更令人擔憂的是，莫斯科已經建立了一個龐大的區域性核武庫。

Experts estimate some 1500 tactical weapons deployable from land, air and sea.

專家估計約有 1500 件戰術武器，可部署於陸海空。

These systems fell outside New Start altogether during the war in Ukraine.

在烏克蘭戰爭期間，這些系統完全不在「新削減戰略武器條約」的範圍內。

Putin has repeatedly invoked nuclear threats, engaging in a scary game of nuclear blackmail.

Putin 一再揚言動用核武，進行一場可怕的核勒索遊戲。

China's trajectory may be even more consequential.

中國的發展軌跡可能更具影響力。

When Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China possessed roughly 240 nuclear warheads.

2012 年 Xi Jinping 上任時，中國大約擁有 240 枚核彈頭。

Today it has more than 600 and is on track to reach 1,000 by 2030, according to US estimates.

專家估計，中國目前擁有超過 600 枚核彈頭，並有望在 2030 年前達到 1,000 枚。

China is fielding a full nuclear triad land based missiles, ballistic missile submarines and air launched weapons and moving toward more regular, high alert levels, including the capacity for launch on warning launching while an adversary's missiles are still in the air.

中國正部署完整的核武三位一體，包括陸基飛彈、彈道飛彈潛艦和空射武器，並朝向更常態化、高度戒備的等級邁進，包括「預警即發射」的能力，也就是在敵方飛彈仍在空中時就發射。

The Biden administration sought to slow this buildup through dialogue, pressing Beijing to enter nuclear arms discussions.

拜登政府試圖透過對話減緩這項軍備擴張，敦促北京參與核軍備討論。

China would seriously talk only when its arsenal match more closely that of the US and Russia.

中國表示，只有當其軍武庫存與美俄更為接近時，才會認真展開談判。

As Edelman and Miller note, Beijing views transparency and verification not as confidence building measures, but as vulnerabilities.

正如 Edelman 和 Miller 指出，北京將透明度和驗證視為弱點，而非建立信任的措施。

Arms control is seen as a constraint to be avoided.

軍備控制被視為一種需要避免的限制。

The result is a three sided nuclear competition far more complex than the bipolar standoff of the Cold War.

結果就是一場三方核子競賽，其複雜程度遠超過冷戰時期的兩極對峙。

The Economist captures the shift with a vivid image.

《經濟學人》用一個生動的比喻捕捉到了這種轉變。

What Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, once called two scorpions in a bottle, has become three, the bottle more crowded, the scorpions less predictable.

原子彈之父羅伯特·歐本海默曾稱之為「瓶中的兩隻蠍子」，現在卻變成了三隻，瓶子更擁擠，蠍子也更難預測。

This matters because deterrence grows more fragile as the system grows more complex.

這很重要，因為隨著系統變得越來越複雜，嚇阻力也變得越來越脆弱。

A bipolar nuclear world was dangerous but legible.

兩極核子世界雖然危險，但卻是清晰可辨的。

A tripolar or multipolar one is not Russia and China are cooperating more closely, exchanging technology and conducting joint military exercises, sometimes involving nuclear capable forces.

三極或多極世界則不然，俄羅斯和中國正更緊密地合作，交換技術並進行聯合軍事演習，有時還涉及核武能力部隊。

A bipartisan US Strategic Posture Commission warned in 2023 of the risk of opportunistic aggression or even coordinated pressure across multiple theaters.

美國兩黨戰略態勢委員會在 2023 年警告，存在機會主義侵略甚至多戰區協調施壓的風險。

American nuclear forces, designed for a largely bilateral rivalry, weren't meant to deter two peer adversaries simultaneously.

美國的核武力量是為了應對主要是兩國對抗而設計的，並非同時嚇阻兩個同等級的對手。

The risk of miscalculation rises not just in war, but in crises, exercises or moments of panic.

誤判的風險不僅在戰爭中上升，在危機、演習或恐慌時刻也是如此。

Modern nuclear systems are increasingly entangled with cyber networks, space based sensors and compressed decision timelines.

現代核武系統越來越多地與網路、太空感測器以及壓縮的決策時間線糾纏在一起。