Name: 海灣國家面臨兩難！伊朗與美國、以色列戰火升級，分析師：無論如何都「難逃一劫」！ (Gulf states ‘damned either way’ in escalating US–Israel war on Iran, analyst says)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T21:33:25.000Z
Duration: 6 min 56 s

Huge explosions have been heard in different parts of Tehran.

Millions of people in the Iranian capital are struggling with toxic air and rain after the US And Israel attacked oil storage and refining facilities for the first time overnight.

在美國和以色列連夜首次攻擊油料儲存和煉油設施後，伊朗首都數百萬民眾正飽受有毒空氣和雨水的侵擾。

The Israeli military has warned it will target anyone who replaces Iran's assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

以色列軍方已警告，將鎖定任何接替伊朗被暗殺的最高領袖阿里·哈梅內伊的人。

The warning comes as Iran's clerical body is set to meet to decide who will succeed Khamenei.

此警告發出之際，伊朗的宗教機構即將召開會議，決定誰將繼任哈梅內伊。

He was killed in a US Israeli airstrike just over a week ago.

他在一週多前遭美以空襲身亡。

In Lebanon, 18 people, including children have been killed during an Israeli attack.

在黎巴嫩，有18人，包括兒童，在以色列的攻擊中喪生。

In the south, the Israeli military has been issuing threats to residents of southern Lebanon to leave their homes.

在南部，以色列軍方一直在威脅南部黎巴嫩的居民離開家園。

Now then, a special meeting of the Arab League Council has been held to discuss the conflict in the Middle east and the implications for the broader region.

接著，阿拉伯國家聯盟理事會召開了一場特別會議，討論中東的衝突及其對更廣泛地區的影響。

Qatar's Ministry of Foreign affairs has released this statement.

It says the meeting discussed the Iranian attacks on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of several Arab countries which constitute a flagrant violation of international national laws and charters as well as the principles of good neighborliness.

聲明指出，會議討論了伊朗攻擊多個阿拉伯國家主權和領土完整的問題，這構成對國際法規和憲章以及睦鄰友好原則的公然違反。

It also addressed the serious risks these actions posed to the security and stability of Arab states and the region.

會議也探討了這些行動對阿拉伯國家及區域安全與穩定的嚴重風險。

And the Omani Foreign Minister, that's Badr Al Musaidi who mediated the U. S.

還有阿曼外交部長，也就是巴德爾·阿爾穆薩伊迪，他曾居中協調美國

Iran talks before the war also released a statement following the meeting.

在開戰前與伊朗的談判，也在會後發表了聲明。

And he said the action taken by Israel and the US Against Iran is both immoral and and illegal.

他表示，以色列和美國對伊朗採取的行動，既不道德也不合法。

But the retaliation by Iran against its neighbors is also deeply regrettable and unacceptable.

但伊朗對其鄰國的報復行動，也同樣令人深感遺憾且無法接受。

I call for restraint on all sides, a cease fire and an urgent return to diplomacy.

我呼籲各方保持克制，停火並緊急重啟外交協商。

Then we have the King of Bahrain who has condemned what he called Iran's unprecedented and unjustifiable attacks against his country as well as other Gulf states.

接著，巴林國王譴責了伊朗對其國家及其他波灣國家，他稱之為前所未有且無理的攻擊。

King Hamad bin Issa Khalifa also praised the support and solidarity felt from the other Gulf countries.

哈瑪德·賓·伊薩·哈利法國王也讚揚了其他波灣國家提供的支持與團結。

The communications that we have received from brotherly and friendly nations from all around the world confirming and stressing their full support to the kingdom and stability, expressing their wishes, their good wishes.

我們收到了來自世界各地兄弟般友邦的訊息，他們確認並強調對王國及其穩定的全力支持，並表達了他們的祝願。

Bahrain with the help with the grace of Allah would be steadfast on wisdom and moderate treading forward with confidence, meeting its commitments to the its Arab neighborhood and the international community.

在真主阿拉的幫助和恩典下，巴林將堅定地以智慧和適度的步伐前進，履行對其阿拉伯鄰國和國際社會的承諾。

Okay, let's take this on with Dania Thafer who is Executive Director of the Gulf International Forum of Think Tank based in Washington D.C.

好的，我們來連線請教華盛頓特區海灣國際智庫論壇執行董事 Dania Thafer。

For the Gulf states to get on the front foot on this without escalating isn't is very difficult.

海灣國家要在不升級衝突的情況下採取主動，這非常不容易。

They're right now trying to balance between all the parties.

他們現在正試圖在各方之間取得平衡。

You know, from their perspective, there are two bullies in the region, Israel and Iran.

你知道，從他們的角度來看，該地區有兩個霸凌者，就是以色列和伊朗。

And then their greatest ally, the US supported this war.

而他們最大的盟友美國卻支持這場戰爭。

So it's a very difficult balancing act for the Gulf states.

所以對海灣國家來說，這是一個非常艱難的平衡之舉。

Right now, as I mentioned, not all the Gulf states were attacked equally.

正如我剛才提到的，並非所有海灣國家都遭受了同等的攻擊。

And so also not all the Gulf states want to respond equally.

所以並非所有海灣國家都想做出相同的回應。

So their threat perception is different, I guess.

所以我想他們的威脅認知是不同的。

Their threat perception is different and then therefore their response to that would be different.

他們的威脅認知不同，那麼他們的回應也會不同。

And that means there's not a united front on how to respond other than having a defense posture and also trying to de escalate.

這意味著，除了採取防禦姿態並試圖降溫之外，並沒有一個統一的應對戰線。

I think that's the lowest common denominator the Gulf states have right now.

我認為這就是海灣國家目前最低的共同點。

As far as you know, are there any channels of communication between the Gulf states and the Iranian leadership, such as it is?

就你所知，海灣國家與伊朗領導層之間是否有任何溝通管道，儘管伊朗領導層現況如此？

Well, yes, there has been communication, I think back and forth.

嗯，是的，我認為一直都有來回的溝通。

I have heard of some calls between, for example, the Qatari foreign Minister and Prime Minister with Iran Iranian leadership.

我聽說過，例如卡達外交部長和總理與伊朗領導層之間有過一些通話。

And so yes, there has been communication, but

所以，是的，一直都有溝通，但

I think most of that communication is to share their frustration with the situation and try to find a solution to this situation and deter any more attacks on the Gulf states.

我認為大部分的溝通都是在分享他們對現況的沮喪，並試圖找到解決辦法，同時阻止對海灣國家發動更多攻擊。

We have this statement from the Revolutionary Guard saying that if attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure don't stop, they're going to respond with similar action in the region.

我們看到革命衛隊發布聲明，說如果對伊朗能源基礎設施的攻擊不停歇，他們將在中東地區採取類似行動。

That would be of course, a great concern to Gulf states.

這當然會讓海灣國家非常擔憂。

That is a major concern for the Gulf states.

這對海灣國家來說是個重大的擔憂。

Of course, the energy infrastructure is important to the economic well being of the Gulf states, but

當然，能源基礎設施對海灣國家的經濟福祉很重要，但

it's also equally important to the global international economy and therefore an escalation on Gulf energy infrastructure is an escalation with the international community.

它對全球國際經濟同樣重要，是以，攻擊海灣能源基礎設施就是與國際社會為敵。

On top of that, Iran has targeted a desalination plant in Bahrain, which is very problematic for the Gulf states because Gulf states are, I believe, between 60 to almost 100% dependent on water desalination for everyday water use.

此外，伊朗還攻擊了巴林的淡化廠，這對海灣國家來說問題很大，因為我認為海灣國家日常用水有 60% 到將近 100% 都依賴海水淡化。

And therefore that is also a major threat for the Gulf states.

是以，這對海灣國家來說也是一個重大威脅。

The fact that the US struck desalination plants in, in Iran does put the Gulf states unfortunately in a bad situation.

美國攻擊伊朗的淡化廠，這不幸地讓海灣國家處於一個不利的局面。

And the fact that US is striking oil facilities in Iran is putting the Gulf in a bad situation as well.

而且美國攻擊伊朗的石油設施，這也讓海灣國家陷入了不利的局面。

Finally, Daniel, can you see a situation where the Gulf states would have no option other than to go on the offensive?

最後，Daniel，你認為海灣國家有沒有可能別無選擇，只能採取攻勢？

I think the situation that would cause that is if the attacks and the damage is equivalent to what they would do if, you know, if they joined the war, then there's no incentive to not join the war.

我認為會造成這種情況的，是如果攻擊和造成的損害，等同於他們加入戰爭時所做的，那他們就沒有理由不加入戰爭了。

The other thing is, you know, some, some Iranian thought leaders I, if you would want to call them that, they are trying to say that the US Is launching from the Gulf attacks on Iran, which is completely not true.

另一件事是，有些伊朗的意見領袖，如果你想這麼稱呼他們的話，他們試圖說美國是從海灣地區對伊朗發動攻擊，這完全不是真的。

And I think if Iran keeps making that argument and using that as a legitimate reason to attack the Gulf states, then the Gulf states will eventually say, okay, let the US Attack from here.

我認為如果伊朗繼續提出這種論點，並以此作為攻擊海灣國家的正當理由，那麼海灣國家最終會說，好吧，就讓美國從這裡攻擊吧。

Because it's the same if, if you do or don't.

So damned if you do, damned if you don't.

這是一個非常微妙、脆弱的局面。

Daniel Thafer, appreciate your expertise.

Daniel Thafer，感謝你的專業見解。

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海灣國家面臨兩難！伊朗與美國、以色列戰火升級，分析師：無論如何都「難逃一劫」！ (Gulf states ‘damned either way’ in escalating US–Israel war on Iran, analyst says)

perception

equivalent

situation

delicate