Name: 這些談話有多大機會成功？ | DW 新聞 (What are the chances these talks will be successful? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T17:16:06.000Z
Duration: 10 min 50 s

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued a defiant message to the United States saying Washington will not succeed in overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

伊朗領袖阿亞圖拉哈米尼向美國發出強硬訊息，表示華盛頓不會成功推翻伊斯蘭共和國。

The two sides have held a second round of indirect talks in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program.

雙方已在日內瓦就伊朗核計畫展開第二輪間接會談。

基礎被動語態

The Iranian delegation is led by the Foreign Minister, Abbas Arakchi.

伊朗代表團由外交部長阿巴斯·阿拉奇奇領軍。

US Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the US Team.

美國特使史蒂夫·維特科夫和賈裡德·庫許納領軍美國團隊。

President Donald Trump has said regime change would be the best thing for Iran.

總統唐納·川普曾表示，政權更迭對伊朗來說是最好的事。

The US has sent a naval task force to the region, but

美國已派遣海軍特遣隊前往該區域，但

Trump says he hopes to avoid further military action and that he will also take part in these negotiations.

川普表示他希望能避免進一步的軍事行動，而且他也會參與這些談判。

So I'll be involved in those talks indirectly, and

所以我會間接參與那些談判，而且

they'll be very important, and we'll see what can happen.

他們會非常重要，我們將看看會發生什麼。

But typically, Iran's a very tough negotiator.

但通常來說，伊朗是個非常難纏的談判者。

I would say they're bad negotiators because we could have had a deal.

我會說他們是壞的談判者，因為我們本來可以達成協議的。

Instead of sending the B2s in to knock out their nuclear potential.

而不是派 B2 轟炸機去摧毀他們的核潛力。

I hope they're going to be more reasonable.

They're told that a deal is next to impossible.

他們被告知達成協議幾乎是不可能的。

I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal.

我不認為他們想要不達成協議的後果。

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has stepped up his warnings to the US over its military buildup in the Middle East.

伊朗的領袖阿亞圖拉哈米尼，針對美國在中東的軍事集結，加強了他的警告。

The US President keeps saying our military is the strongest military in the world.

美國總統一直說我們的軍隊是世界上最強的軍隊。

But the world's most powerful military can sometimes receive such a slap that it can no longer stay on its feet.

但世界上最強大的軍隊有時候也會挨一記耳光，讓牠站不穩腳步。

They keep saying we have sent warships towards Iran.

他們一直說我們派了軍艦前往伊朗。

Of course, a warship is a dangerous device, but

more dangerous than that is a weapon that can send a warship deep under the sea.

比那更危險的是能讓軍艦沉入海底的武器。

For more, we can speak to Ali Fatullah Najad.

想了解更多，我們可以請教 Ali Fatullah Najad。

He is a director at the Centre for Middle east and Global Order and an Iran expert.

他是中東與全球秩序中心的主任，也是伊朗專家。

What do you make of these very clear statements from Iran's Supreme Leader?

你怎麼看待伊朗領袖這些非常明確的聲明？

He does seem very confident that the US Cannot overthrow the Islamic Republic.

他看起來很有信心，認為美國無法推翻伊斯蘭共和國。

嗯，這些都是慣常的反擊威脅。

From the Iranian part, this is quite business as usual.

從伊朗方面來說，這算是例行公事。

Whenever there is, you know, such a tense situation as we have currently.

每當出現像我們目前這樣緊張的局勢時。

The Iranians, you know, do issue counter threats, for instance, by saying that they're going to target all US Military bases in the region all the way to closing down the Strait of Four minutes.

伊朗方面，你知道，確實會發出反擊威脅，例如，他們說要攻擊該地區所有美軍基地，甚至封鎖「四分鐘海峽」。

In these negotiations and what kind of compromises might they be prepared to accept to reach a deal?

在這些談判中，他們可能準備接受什麼樣的讓步來達成協議？

Well, that's a very good question because we do not know about all details to give a.

嗯，這是個很好的問題，因為我們不知道所有細節，所以無法給出。

What we do know is that the Islam Republic, because of its, you know, domestic and international standing, is seeking to reach a deal with the United States in order to decrease the pressures upon it.

我們所知道的是，由於其國內外處境，伊斯蘭共和國正尋求與美國達成協議，以減輕對其施加的壓力。

And it wants to see, as a result of negotiations, sanctions lifted.

而他們希望透過談判，能夠解除制裁。

And the second most important aim of the Iranian side is to keep the talks focused on, on the nuclear issue only and thereby not to talk and to negotiate about its ballistic missile program and also about its role in the region.

另一方面，伊朗方面最重要的目標是讓談判僅聚焦於核議題，藉此避免討論和談判其彈道飛彈計畫以及在該地區的角色。

You mentioned that the pressures on it domestically, after the mass protests against the regime last month and the brutal crackdown that followed, what do the Iranian people think?

您提到國內的壓力，在人民上個月大規模抗議政權之後，以及隨之而來的殘酷鎮壓，伊朗人民又是怎麼想的呢？

Do people inside the country want the US to make a deal with the Islamic Republic?

國內人民希望美國與伊斯蘭共和國達成協議嗎？

That's precisely the other side of the coin.

So what we have to pay attention to is not only to the U. S.

所以我們必須關注的，不只是美國

Iran conflict, the conflict pitting the United States of America against the Islamic Republic of Iran about which we just talked about, but

伊朗之間的衝突，也就是我們剛才談到的，美國對抗伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的衝突，但

the second most important, equally important, if not more important, is how Iranian society views diplomacy and those negotiations.

第二個同樣重要，甚至更重要的，是如何看待伊朗社會對外交和這些談判的看法。

And I think it's fair to assess that there is a clear majority in Iran who do not want to see any kind of dirty deal that would cement the reign of the Islamic Republic of the regime in Iran to the detriment of Iranian people.

我認為可以公平地判斷，伊朗國內有絕大多數人都不希望看到任何一種骯髒的協議，這種協議會鞏固伊朗伊斯蘭共和國政權的統治，損害伊朗人民的利益。

So, you know, there could be a deal that would end up actually cementing regime stability and security, for instance, via sanctions relief that the rulers in Tehran, as they did in the past, would primarily use for their own purposes of regime stability and the projection of regime strength in the region.

所以，你知道，可能會有一項協議，實際上會鞏固政權的穩定和安全，例如透過解除制裁，德黑蘭的統治者，就像他們過去一樣，將主要利用這些制裁來鞏固政權穩定和在該地區投射政權力量。

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been conducting exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

伊朗革命衛隊一直在荷姆茲海峽進行演習。

And as you mentioned earlier, earlier, Tehran is saying the strait will be partially closed during the maneuvers.

正如你剛才提到的，德黑蘭方面表示，在演習期間，海峽將會部分關閉。

Just give us your interpretation of that.

Well, this is a long standing threat from the Iranian side.

嗯，這是伊朗方面長期以來的威脅。

The Iranians have never ended up actually doing that.

伊朗人從來沒有真正這麼做過。

That is closing down the Strait of Hormuz, for instance, by mining it or similar measures, because they know fully well that the American side would understand such a cutting off as a declaration of war.

也就是關閉荷姆茲海峽，例如透過佈雷或類似措施，因為他們很清楚，美國方面會將這種封鎖視為宣戰。

And we've seen warnings from US centcom, that is the US Military in the Middle east, making very clear that this would not be acceptable to the United States if the Iranians did do that.

我們也看到了美國中央司令部，也就是美國在中東的軍隊發出的警告，非常清楚地表明，如果伊朗人這樣做，美國將無法接受。

And also it would alienate the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

而且這也會疏遠波斯灣的阿拉伯國家。

And last but not least, it would also complicate Iranian energy exports.

最後，這也會讓伊朗的能源出口變得複雜。

So there are a whole range of different risks associated with actually implementing this Iranian threat.

所以，實際執行伊朗的這項威脅，會伴隨著一連串不同的風險。

Ali Fatullah Nejad with the center for Middle east and Global Order.

Ali Fatullah Nejad，來自中東與全球秩序中心。

All right, let's talk about this with Kamran Matin is Associate professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex in the UK welcome to dw.

好的，我們來跟英國薩塞克斯大學國際關係副教授 Kamran Matin 聊聊，歡迎來到 DW。

First of all, what are the chances of success at these talks, would you say?

首先，您認為這次談判成功的機率有多大？

Well, we don't know behind the scenes what sort of talks they had in Oman a few weeks ago, but

嗯，我們不知道幾週前在阿曼舉行的談判，幕後情況如何，但

based on what they have expressed publicly, the positions of Iran and US Remain really far apart.

根據他們公開表達的內容，伊朗和美國的立場仍然相距甚遠。

And I just don't see how without a radical sort of concession from one side, they can reach a deal.

而且我實在看不出來，除非其中一方做出徹底的讓步，否則他們要如何達成協議。

US has demanded a halt, a complete halt to enrichment on Iranian soil, something Iran has always rejected.

美國要求完全停止在伊朗境內的鈾濃縮，這是伊朗一直以來都拒絕的。

Apparently, they are ready to dilute their highly enriched uranium.

顯然，他們準備好稀釋他們的高濃縮鈾。

They might even agree to some sort of suspension of enrichment or enriching at a lower kind of level.

他們甚至可能同意某種程度的暫停濃縮，或是以較低的程度進行濃縮。

But completely stopping enrichment is something which Iran would consider as a national defeat.

但完全停止濃縮，伊朗會認為這是國家的恥辱。

On top of that, we have had in the past, at least, US Demand for limitation to Iran's missile arsenal, stopping sponsoring proxy forces in the region.

除此之外，過去至少美國還要求限制伊朗的飛彈庫存，停止資助該地區的代理部隊。

And Iran has flatly rejected any discussion beyond the nuclear file.

而伊朗則斷然拒絕任何超越核議題的討論。

So on that basis, it's very difficult to see how they can reach an agreement.

所以基於這些情況，實在很難想像他們要如何達成協議。

A second aircraft carrier is being sent to the region, and that takes another week or so.

第二艘航空母艦正要被派往該地區，這還需要大約一週的時間。

So I doubt even if they fail today, there will be immediately a conflict.

所以我不認為即使他們今天失敗，馬上就會有衝突。

But we hear from Iran the idea of actually also offering incentive, economic incentive to us, such as involving US Companies in Iran's oil and gas industry, so that Trump is kind of appeased, so to speak, to benefit from a deal economically as well as politically.

但我們聽到伊朗也提出經濟誘因，像是讓美國公司參與伊朗的油氣產業，這樣川普也會覺得高興，從協議中獲得經濟和政治上的好處。

We just heard the US President essentially saying they really want to make a deal because they don't want to deal.

我們剛聽到美國總統說他們真的很想達成協議，因為他們不想面對。

But what would you say really realistically are the consequences of failure?

但現實一點來說，失敗的後果是什麼？

You just said there probably won't be an immediate conflict, but realistically, what might then happen, actually

你剛說可能不會馬上發生衝突，但現實一點，接下來可能會發生什麼？

the consequences is one of the things which sheds doubt on US Attack, because while US can deliver massive blows to Iran militarily, Trump is unlikely to deploy ground forces, and

後果是讓美國攻擊的可能性降低，因為雖然美國能在軍事上重創伊朗，但川普不太可能部署地面部隊，而且

Islamic Republic is confident it can survive air attacks.

伊斯蘭共和國有信心能撐過空襲。

And in addition to that, it's not clear what happens exactly if somehow US Is willing and able to overthrow Iranian government in terms of an alternative replacement.

此外，如果美國願意且有能力推翻伊朗政府，但卻沒有明確的替代人選，那後果也難以預料。

And those are the kind of issues which I think has been behind the scenes pushing Trump towards pursuing the diplomatic line.

我認為這些就是幕後推動川普走外交路線的原因。

But given what he has said in the past and how much he gives importance to prestige and how it's seen in the international stage, I think one cannot rule out possibility of a sustained aerial attack, even if it doesn't necessarily lead to either Iranian regime's overthrow or getting the kind of concessions Trump wants from Iran.

但考量到他過去的說法，以及他對聲望的重視，以及在國際舞臺上的形象，我認為不能排除持續空襲的可能性，即使這不一定會導致伊朗政權垮臺，或讓川普得到他想要的讓步。

Cameron Matton from the University of Sussex, thank you so much for your time.

來自蘇塞克斯大學的 Cameron Matton，非常感謝你的時間。