Name: Reform or decline? The harsh reality facing Germany’s government | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-30T16:57:50.000Z
Duration: 9 min 16 s

Here's the situation: wars in Ukraine and Iran, the rise of the far right, and

情況是這樣的：烏克蘭和伊朗的戰爭、極右勢力的崛起，以及

a government coalition that, so far, has been unable to agree on reforms.

一個到目前為止都無法就改革達成共識的聯合政府。

What's it going to be for Germany: reform or decline?

德國的未來會是怎樣：改革還是衰退？

Berlin needs to enact social and economic reforms.

柏林需要頒布社會和經濟改革。

But does Germany have the strength to overcome the many obstacles?

但德國有沒有力量克服這些重重障礙呢？

Time for a quick reminder of what most experts agree is needed: pension system reform, health care system reform, and

該快速提醒一下大家，大多數專家認為需要做什麼了：終身俸制度改革、醫療保健制度改革，還有

This man has taken center stage in the past days.

這位男士近幾天成為了眾人矚目的焦點。

He might be the key to unlocking the door to reforms.

他可能是解鎖改革大門的關鍵人物。

Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the Social Democrats, together with his colleague Babel Bass, who is more left-leaning than he is.

他是社民黨的聯合領導人 Lars Klingbeil，和他那位比他更偏左的同事 Babel Bass。

Their party is in trouble after key state elections.

他們的政黨在關鍵州選舉後陷入困境。

In the most recent state election in Rheinland-Palatinate, the SPD lost almost 10 percent of the vote and also its mandate to govern the state.

在最近一次萊茵蘭-普法爾茨的州選舉中，社民黨失去了近一成的選票，也失去了執政權。

And earlier, in the state of Baden-Württemberg, the SPD barely made it into parliament.

而在更早的巴登-符騰堡州選舉中，社民黨僅僅勉強進入議會。

These losses appear to have convinced Klingbeil that he needs to move to the center.

這些失利似乎讓 Klingbeil 確信他需要向中間靠攏。

A recent speech of his attracted a lot of attention in Germany because of statements like this: "And when I talk about fundamental changes, that also means we as a society will have to work more overall.

他最近的一場演講因為這類發言而引起了德國的廣泛關注：「當我談論基本變革時，這也意味著我們整個社會必須整體上更努力地工作。

I want us to have a debate about the labor market, but

我想讓我們針對勞動市場展開辯論，但

I want us to have it based on facts, not on populism." He wants Germans to work more.

我想讓我們的辯論基於事實，而不是民粹主義。」他希望德國人能更努力地工作。

Only a couple of years back he was contemplating the four-day workweek for certain professions.

就在幾年前，他還在考慮讓某些職業實施四天工作週。

Now he appears to be aligning with the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

現在他似乎正與德國總理 Friedrich Merz 靠攏。

And that could unlock possibilities for compromise.

而這或許能為妥協打開可能性。

But will it be enough to push through urgent reforms?

I checked in with Professor Thomas Pogundke, a political scientist and expert on political parties.

我聯繫了政治學家、也是政黨專家的 Thomas Pogundke 教授。

I wanted to know his take on the state of the coalition, despite Klingbeil's recent rapprochement.

我想知道他對現況的看法，儘管 Klingbeil 最近有所緩和。

"When you look at the present coalition, they are actually not very close together politically.

「看看目前的執政聯盟，他們在政治上其實差距很大。

If you would measure the distance between the more economically liberal wing in the Christian Democratic Party and the left of the Social Democratic Party, this is going to be a difficult attempt.

如果你測量基督教民主黨中較偏向經濟自由派的陣營，與社會民主黨的左派之間的距離，這將會是一項艱難的嘗試。

So there is going to be an intense conflict over the question: either raising more money or saving more money." An internal SPD fight seems almost inevitable, and

所以，在『要麼增加收入，要麼節省開支』這個問題上，將會有一場激烈的衝突。」社民黨內部的鬥爭似乎幾乎不可避免，而

a lot rides on the question whether the party can resolve it.

這一切都取決於該黨能否解決這個問題。

Let's say the SPD manages to overcome its differences.

There are still many other obstacles, one of them being time, because there's not much of it.

還有許多其他障礙，其中之一就是時間，因為時間所剩不多。

Germans are increasingly growing impatient.

Take a look at this poll: 71 percent of Germans want reforms, and fast.

看看這份民調：百分之七十一的德國人希望進行改革，而且要快。

The coalition appears to agree their goal is to get everything on track until the next state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.

執政聯盟似乎同意，他們的目標是在薩克森-安哈特下次州選舉前讓一切步上正軌。

Here you can see the state capital, Magdeburg.

在這裡你可以看到州首府馬格德堡。

Voters will go to the polls here on September 6.

Very little time to implement the number of reforms that appear to be needed.

這些畫面跟這個情況很有關係。

The far right AfD has reason to celebrate, making major gains in both state elections this year so far.

極右的 AfD 有理由慶祝，今年到目前為止在兩場州選舉中都大有斬獲。

All other parties rule out forming a government with them.

其他所有政黨都排除與他們組成聯合政府的可能性。

But in Saxony-Anhalt, according to the polls, an absolute majority is within reach.

但在薩克森-安哈特，根據民調顯示，他們有機會贏得絕對多數。

If they were to achieve this, the AfD would, for the first time, govern in a German federal state.

如果他們真的做到了，AfD 將是第一次在德國聯邦州執政。

Confidence is high in the far right party.

Of all times, it is precisely now that no reforms can be expected anymore because the SPD finds itself weakened and in decline.

在這個時候， SPD 發現自己變得軟弱且持續衰退，是以預期將無法再進行任何改革。

It is no longer the party of workers and employees.

它已經不再是勞工和受薪階級的政黨了。

這現在是「德國選項」的代表。

數據很大程度上支持了這個說法。

Can the governing coalition change that perception fast enough?

執政聯盟來得及改變這種看法嗎？

Now, the assumption is that enacting reforms before the next elections will weaken the AfD.

現在的假設是，在下次選舉前頒布改革措施，會讓德國選項黨變得更弱。

But it's not that easy, because despite the willingness of a majority of Germans to enact reforms, there's also a majority that doesn't want to sacrifice anything for those reforms.

但事情沒那麼簡單，因為雖然大多數德國人都願意推動改革，但也有多數人不希望為這些改革犧牲任何東西。

Okay, 33 percent said yes, but 55 percent of those asked said no to significant sacrifices.

好的，33% 的人說可以，但有 55% 的受訪者表示不願意做出重大犧牲。

That spells trouble for the reform plans.

這對改革計畫來說是個壞消息。

In this context, is it realistic to believe that the governing coalition will be able to enact reforms in the short time until the next state, or as they're called in German, Bundesland elections?

在這種情況下，我們能實際相信執政聯盟能在下次州選舉（也就是德語裡的 Bundesland 選舉）前，有時間頒布改革措施嗎？

the government should have really started earlier before that, because last year was quiet in terms of land elections.

政府應該早點開始，因為去年的州選舉很平靜。

Germany's always troubled, if you like, by consecutive land elections, which make it difficult to concentrate on policymaking.

德國一直以來都因為接連不斷的州選舉而感到困擾，這讓他們難以專注於政策制定。

And now we have about 160 days until the next land elections.

而現在，距離下次州選舉，我們大約還有 160 天。

As if all that wasn't enough, there's also, well, the world.

好像這些還不夠似的，還有，嗯，世界局勢。

Two wars, a full-blown energy crisis, and very difficult transatlantic ties.

兩場戰爭、嚴重的能源危機，以及非常困難的跨大西洋關係。

All of that is eating away at Germany's projected slim growth.

這一切都在侵蝕德國預期的微薄成長。

So the government needs to handle all of this while trying to enact reforms at the same time.

所以政府必須在處理這些事的同時，還要試圖頒布改革。

And as you can imagine, that costs a lot of time.

而你可以想像，這會花費很多時間。

Klingbeil, who is also finance minister, has started spreading the unpopular message that there's a big hole in the federal budget and that the state of the world is making everything even harder.

Klingbeil，他同時也是財政部長，已經開始傳達不受歡迎的訊息，說聯邦預算有個大洞，而且世界局勢讓一切變得更加困難。

His coalition partner, the German Chancellor, who was elected on the promise of reigniting the German economy, has been singing the same tune.

他的聯合夥伴，德國總理，他當初是以重振德國經濟的承諾當選的，現在也唱著同樣的調子。

His message to the Germans now: "I hear you." There's the war in the Middle East.

他現在對德國人民傳達的訊息是：「我聽到你們了。」中東有戰爭。

So much uncertainty coming from the outside all at once has been rare.

這麼多來自外部的不確定性同時出現，這很不尋常。

And so many challenges on the inside all at once have also been rare.

而這麼多內部的挑戰同時出現，也很少見。

And given this background, it is more than understandable that the population is unsettled.

有鑑於此，人民感到不安是可以理解的。

We have a task to fulfill here in Berlin and in the federal states, to give the population back the certainty that the coalition knows what they are talking about and doing, and

我們在柏林和各州都有任務要完成，要讓人民重拾信心，相信聯合政府知道自己在說什麼、做什麼，並且

they make these decisions in the greatest possible agreement.

他們能盡可能達成最大共識來做這些決定。

And that is something I have been working toward for almost 10 months within the coalition.

這也是我過去十個月來在聯合政府裡一直努力的方向。

Of course, there's another reason why Germans' uncertainty has been growing.

當然，德國人越來越感到不安還有另一個原因。

Expectations in the government have obviously not been met yet.

顯然，政府的期望還沒有完全實現。

Now, you might be thinking Germany is still a really wealthy country.

現在，你可能會想，德國仍然是一個非常富裕的國家。

But this wealth is at stake at the moment, and

但這種財富目前正處於危險之中，

the next months may very well decide the fate of the country for years to come.

接下來幾個月很可能會決定國家未來多年的命運。

But Professor Pogundke thinks there is still ground for optimism.

但 Pogundke 教授認為，仍有樂觀的空間。

But generally, German elites are committed to a consensus and a compromise.

但總的來說，德國的菁英階層致力於共識與妥協。

So I think Germany has the strength to do that, but it's difficult times ahead.

所以我認為德國有能力做到，但未來會是艱難的時刻。

Difficult times because of painful reforms.

艱難的時刻是因為痛苦的改革。

But in the end, the alternative: further decline, in all likelihood, would be much worse.

但最終，另一種選擇：進一步的衰退，極有可能會糟得多。