Name: 伊朗戰爭：為什麼新領導人穆什塔巴·卡梅內伊的演說引發質疑？ | DW 新聞 (Iran war: Why new leader Moshtaba Khamenei's speech raises questions | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T23:08:38.000Z
Duration: 13 min 45 s

情態副詞

Iranian state TV has aired what it called the first address from Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Moshtavi Khamenei.

伊朗國家電視臺播出了據稱是伊朗新任命的最高領袖 Ayatollah Moshtavi Khamenei 的首次演講。

基礎被動語態

But the broadcast has raised questions about whether he's actually the author of the message and what his condition might be after he was injured in US And Israeli attacks that killed his father.

但這則廣播引發了疑問，他是否真的是這則訊息的作者，以及在他父親在美以襲擊中喪生後，他的狀況可能如何。

As previous supreme leader, the son of Ali Khamenei does not appear on camera.

作為前任最高領袖，Ali Khamenei 的兒子並未露面。

The message vowing revenge for Iranian deaths and a lasting cutoff of Gulf oil supplies was read by a TV presenter.

這則誓言為伊朗死亡事件報仇並長期中斷波斯灣石油供應的訊息，是由一位電視節目主持人朗讀的。

Well, for more on this statement, we can speak now with Dr. Rowena Binti Abdul Rasak.

好的，關於這份聲明，我們現在可以請教 Dr. Rowena Binti Abdul Rasak。

She's a lecturer in London specializing in Middle East Northern history.

她是倫敦一位專攻中東北部歷史的講師。

Rowena, what do you make of the statement from Iran's new supreme Leader?

Rowena，你對伊朗新任最高領袖的這份聲明有什麼看法？

It's quite an interesting statement, especially from someone we cannot see and we cannot hear.

這是一份相當有趣的聲明，特別是來自一個我們看不見也聽不見的人。

It's a very strong statement and in many ways very much symbolic of the new hardline government that seems to be in place and that seems to be taking, you know, seems to be taken that much represents.

這是一份非常強烈的聲明，在很多方面都象徵著新上任的強硬派政府，而這個政府似乎已經掌權，並且代表著很多事物。

So even though he is not present, it is very much a statement that would have come from the more hardline elements in the government.

所以即使他本人沒有現身，這份聲明也很能代表政府內部的強硬派。

He has very strong links with the IRGC and the IRGC as well as the assembly of Experts who are filled with more conservative and strong handed members of the government, probably are behind, behind this statement.

他與 IRGC 有著非常緊密的聯繫，而 IRGC 以及由更多保守和強硬派成員組成的專家會議，很可能就是這份聲明的幕後推手。

So even though he himself didn't deliver it, it's more of a symbolic delivery of the system and the government that's in charge at the mom under Khamenei, I mean, Khamenei Jr.

所以即使聲明不是他本人發表的，更像是現任政府在 Khamenei，我是說，Khamenei 兒子領導下的體系和政府的一種象徵性發聲。

是的，看起來像是一個家族王朝。

Now, can we be sure that the statement really is from Mojtabah Khamenei?

那麼，我們能確定這份聲明真的是來自 Mojtabah Khamenei 嗎？

He hasn't been seen since the war started and there is speculation that he's maybe in a coma or possibly even dead.

自戰爭開始以來他就沒有出現過，有人猜測他可能處於昏迷狀態，甚至可能已經過世了。

He, to begin with, Mojtaba was quite an enigmatic figure to begin with.

首先，Mojtaba 本來就是一個相當神祕的人物。

He never held public office, so he was not someone who was in the public eye anyway.

他從未擔任過公職，所以他本來就不是一個公眾人物。

He was quite, you know, a mysterious figure.

他本來就是一個相當神祕的人物。

Although we do know that he held a lot of power behind the scenes.

雖然我們知道他在幕後掌握了很多權力。

He was very much the gatekeeper to his father's, to his, to his, to the, to the, to his father back then when the father was alive.

在他父親還在世的時候，他就是他父親的守門人。

He also had very strong links with the IRGC and the Basij.

他也和 IRGC 和 Basij 有很深的聯繫。

So we know that he was very much a behind the scenes person.

所以我們知道他非常是一個幕後人物。

And even if the statement didn't come from him directly.

即使這份聲明不是他本人發出的。

It seems to be quite, quite in line with how he was doing things anyway, very much behind the scenes, which in this context seems very strange because, you know, the Supreme Leader is very much a public figure and needs to be seen.

這似乎也和他一貫的行事風格非常一致，就是非常低調，這在這種情況下顯得很奇怪，因為，你知道，最高領袖是非常公開的人物，需要被看見。

It's very hard to say whether the statement came from him directly, but I reckon that, and

很難說這份聲明是不是他本人發出的，但我認為，

I believe that the statement was actually a collective effort, not just from him, but

我相信這份聲明其實是集體努力的成果，不只是他，而是

from the more hardline elements in the government, as I said, like the IRGC and so on.

來自政府中更強硬的派系，就像我說的，像是 IRGC 等等。

There are lots of rumors of whether he's actually even alive, whether he's in a coma, how injured he is and so on.

關於他到底還活不活、有沒有昏迷、傷勢有多重等等，有很多傳言。

And the fact that he hasn't been produced on TV speaks to the fact that either he is incapacitated in some way or that they are very worried because there were lots of threats against his life.

而他沒有出現在電視上，這說明他可能因為某些原因無法理事，或者他們非常擔心，因為有很多人威脅要他的命。

And the US has said that he was not Trump's choice.

Israel has said that they would kill any Supreme Leader that comes to power.

以色列曾說他們會殺掉任何上任的最高領袖。

So I think there is also a security element to him, him not appearing, but

所以我認為他不出面也有安全上的考量，

it doesn't breed much confidence among the government and its people.

但這並沒有讓政府和人民之間建立太多信心。

What sort of reaction are you seeing so far from Iranians to this?

到目前為止，你看到伊朗人有什麼樣的反應？

散居海外的伊朗人又是怎麼回應的？

It's a disappointing appointment in many ways.

這在很多方面來說，都是一個令人失望的任命。

He represents a dynasty, which is ironic because there's a lot of.

他代表著一個王朝，這很諷刺，因為有很多人。

There were, there were a lot of calls for the monarchy to return, Reza Pahlavi to return.

當時有很多人呼籲君主制回歸，Reza Pahlavi 回歸。

And yet here now, we have a clerical dynasty in charge in Iran.

但現在，伊朗卻由一個教士王朝掌權。

So it's kind of a disappointment to many.

所以這對許多人來說，有點令人失望。

It's very hard to say what Iranians in Iran are really feeling.

真的很難說伊朗國內的伊朗人到底在想什麼。

I mean, there were lots of state television videos showing, you know, the support that Mujtaba has.

我的意思是，有很多國家電視臺的視頻顯示，你知道，Mujtaba 所受到的支持。

But at the same time now with the blackout on the Internet in Iran, it's very hard to know exactly the truth, you know, to know exactly how people are feeling.

但同時，現在伊朗網路被封鎖，要確切知道真相，你知道，確切知道人們的感受，真的非常困難。

Iranians at the moment are very displaced in Iran.

目前伊朗人都在伊朗境內流離失所。

The United nations reckons about 3.2 million people are displaced in Iran.

聯合國估計，伊朗約有 320 萬人流離失所。

And I'm sure that a lot of people just want the war to be over.

我確定很多人只想戰爭趕快結束。

And at the moment, Mojtaba is not, not promising that.

而目前，Mujtaba 並沒有，並沒有承諾這一點。

So I'm sure there's a lot of worry and concern that the war under him might, might just continue.

所以我確定很多人擔心，在他領導下的戰爭可能會，可能會一直持續下去。

The diaspora, of course, are not happy with his appointment because he continues in that hard line streak as his father.

當然，海外的伊朗人對他的任命並不高興，因為他繼承了他父親的強硬路線。

So a lot of people won't be necessarily happy with the direction that Iran seems to be going, more isolated, continuing in the hard line manner, not just in terms of the war, but

所以很多人可能不會對伊朗似乎走的方向感到高興，更加孤立，繼續採取強硬路線，不只是在戰爭方面，

所以我們聽到了強硬的訊息，但是

we haven't seen the new Supreme Leader ourselves or heard his voice.

我們還沒有親眼見到新的最高領袖，也沒有聽過他的聲音。

Can we still assume that the chain of command from the Supreme Leader on down is still intact?

我們還能假設從最高領袖往下，指揮系統仍然完好嗎？

Or could parts of the Revolutionary Guard, the irgc, be operating pretty much on their own?

還是革命衛隊，IRGC 的一部分，可能已經在獨立運作了？

The irgc, they have a new commander, Ahmad Vaghidi, who was the former Minister of Defence and he is known to be also very strong handed, not just abroad but also in the country.

IRGC 有了新指揮官 Ahmad Vaghidi，他曾是國防部長，而且眾所周知，他不僅對外，對內也是強硬派。

He used quite a lot of force against protesters, for example.

例如，他曾對抗議者使用了相當大的武力。

And the IRGC in a way kind of acts on its own accord, as we can see.

而且我們可以看到，IRGC 在某種程度上是自行其是的。

You know, we have statements from the President, Pezesh Kyan, who is trying to calm the situation, he's trying to calm down the Gulf neighbors, especially to say that, you know, this is not against them.

我們聽到了總統 Pezesh Kyan 的聲明，他試圖緩和局勢，他試圖安撫海灣鄰國，特別是想表達這不是針對他們的。

They've threatened to continue to hit at US bases and so on.

他們威脅要繼續攻擊美軍基地等等。

So in terms of statements, you know, they continue in this very hard line, but

所以就聲明而言，他們仍然延續這種非常強硬的路線，但是

at the same time, the chain of command has taken quite a hit.

同時，指揮系統已經受到了相當大的衝擊。

Lots of the military men have been killed.

The Minister of Defense, just one day after his appointment was also killed.

國防部長，在他被任命一天後也陣亡了。

At the moment, I don't believe that Iran even has a minister of Defense.

目前，我不認為伊朗還有國防部長。

So the command structure is a little bit broken in some ways.

所以指揮系統在某些方面有點被打亂了。

But we do have strong leadership from Mojtabh, if he is alive in the background, and

但我們確實有來自 Mojtabh 的強有力領導，如果他在幕後還活著的話，而且

also the IRGC with Ahmad Vahidi who is still in the background, and so on.

還有 IRGC 的 Ahmad Vahidi，他還在幕後，諸如此類。

So I think even though the chain of command is broken, the top echelons of power is still intact.

所以我認為，即使指揮鏈斷了，權力的最高層仍然完好無損。

We still have the precedent, we still have the assembly of Experts, we still have the Guardian Council.

我們仍然有先例，我們仍然有專家會議，我們仍然有憲法監護委員會。

So they are continuing, you know, continuing behind the scenes.

所以他們還在繼續，你知道的，在幕後繼續運作。

But I will say that we are seeing kind of two strands emerging.

不過我會說，我們確實看到有兩條路線正在浮現。

One more moderate, calling for, you know, negotiations, calling for, to make sure that, you know, that relations with the Gulf states are not broken and another hand that still wants to continue the conflict.

一條比較溫和，呼籲進行協商，呼籲確保與海灣國家的關係不會破裂；另一條手則仍然想繼續衝突。

Rowena, thank you very much for speaking with us today.

Rowena，非常感謝您今天接受我們的訪問。

That was Rowena Binti Abdul Razak, lecturer in the history of the Middle east and Africa in London.

這是倫敦中東及非洲歷史講師 Rowena Binti Abdul Razak。

For more on Iran's leadership change, we can now speak with Simon Mabon.

關於伊朗領導層變動的更多資訊，我們現在可以請教 Simon Mabon。

He's a professor of international politics at Lancaster University in the uk.

他是英國蘭卡斯特大學國際政治學教授。

Simon, what do you make of that first statement?

That's attributed to Iran's new supreme leader?

那是伊朗新任最高領袖發表的嗎？

嗯，我認為這告訴了我們兩件事。

One, it tells us that there is a very clear message that this is business as usual from the regime.

第一，它告訴我們，政權傳達了一個非常明確的訊息，那就是一切照舊。

And it tells us that the regime is trying to project this narrative that it is Ayatollah Mojtab Al Khamenei who is the supreme leader.

而且這也告訴我們，這個政權正在試圖傳達一個說法，那就是阿亞圖拉·穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊是最高領袖。

But it also raises questions because it is not the supreme leader who is reading this message, ostensibly his own message.

但這也引發了一些疑問，因為讀這份聲明的人並不是最高領袖，聲明據稱是他自己的。

It does raise the question about what condition is he in?

這確實讓人質疑他的狀況如何？

他真的適合 live 出現在電視上嗎？

所以這引發了好幾個問題，但是

at the same time, it does send that narrative, that message of defiance to Israel, to the United States, and

同時，這也確實傳達了那種對以色列、對美國的挑戰訊息，

to other powers in world politics, that Iran is still going to continue on its trajectory.

以及對世界政治中其他強權的訊息，那就是伊朗將繼續沿著自己的軌跡前進。

So Khamenei the Younger has not been seen since the war started, and

所以年輕的哈梅內伊自戰爭開始以來就沒出現過，而且

there's speculation that he's in a coma or maybe no longer alive.

有人猜測他可能昏迷了，或者可能已經不在人世了。

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伊朗戰爭：為什麼新領導人穆什塔巴·卡梅內伊的演說引發質疑？ | DW 新聞 (Iran war: Why new leader Moshtaba Khamenei's speech raises questions | DW News)

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