Name: 專家：伊朗政權非鐵板一塊！部分關鍵勢力已喊出「改變典範」！ (Analyst: 'Iran’s regime is not a monolith — some major elements call for a paradigm change')
Uploaded: 2026-01-10T17:07:20.000Z
Duration: 12 min 27 s

Unrest continues to grow in Iran with street demonstrations raging across the country.

伊朗的動盪持續加劇，街頭示威席捲全國。

情態副詞

Protesters are publicly calling for the end of the Islamic Republic.

抗議者公開呼籲結束伊斯蘭共和國。

分詞構句

The son of the last Shah has sent words of encouragement to the protesters, saying the country's supreme leader is trembling in fear.

末代國王的兒子向抗議者傳達了鼓勵的話語，表示國家最高領袖正因恐懼而顫抖。

But so far, authorities have not backed down.

但到目前為止，當局並未退讓。

The Internet is still cut off, with rights groups alleging more and more deaths and reports of overwhelmed hospitals.

網路仍然被切斷，人權組織聲稱死亡人數不斷增加，並有醫院不堪重負的報導。

Unrest in Iran is intensifying, quickly approaching the two week mark despite mass repression.

伊朗的動盪正在加劇，儘管遭到大規模鎮壓，已迅速接近兩週。

Videos posted on social media show anti government demonstrators turned out in large numbers in Tehran on Friday.

社群媒體上發布的影片顯示，週五德黑蘭有大量反政府示威者走上街頭。

They are calling to overthrow the Islamic regime.

The exiled son of the former Shah of Iran called on his supporters and opponents of the Iranian government to stage more targeted protests.

流亡的前伊朗國王之子呼籲他的支持者和伊朗政府的對手發起更多有針對性的抗議。

I ask all of you today and tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday, to come onto the streets with flags, images and symbols of our nation and to claim public spaces as your own.

我今天和明天，週六和週日，請求大家帶著國家的旗幟、圖像和象徵走上街頭，奪回屬於你們的公共空間。

To the youth of Iran and to all armed and security forces who have joined us, I further slow down and disrupt the machinery of repression so that on the appointed day, we can completely shut it down.

我進一步放慢並幹擾鎮壓機器，以便在指定之日，我們能徹底關閉它。

The current protests were sparked by the dire economic situation in Iran, which has steadily worsened.

目前的抗議活動是由伊朗嚴峻的經濟狀況所引發，這個狀況一直在惡化。

The situation has escalated into a nationwide confrontation between protesters and the state, with an Internet blackout, mass arrests and a rising death toll, according to rights groups.

人權組織指出，局勢已升級為示威者與國家之間的全國性對峙，伴隨著網路封鎖、大規模逮捕和不斷上升的死亡人數。

US President Donald Trump again warned the US Will strike Iran very hard if protesters are killed.

美國總統唐納·川普再次警告，若有示威者被殺，美國將嚴厲打擊伊朗。

I've made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved.

我已非常強硬地表明，如果他們像過去一樣開始殺害人民，我們將介入。

We'll be hitting very hard where it hurts.

我們將會重擊他們最痛的地方。

And that doesn't mean boots on the ground, but

it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts.

意味著我們會重擊他們最痛的地方。

So European countries have also explicitly supported the protesters.

是以，歐洲國家也明確支持了示威者。

The leaders of France, Germany and the UK Urged Iran to exercise restraint and condemn the violent suppression.

法國、德國和英國的領導人敦促伊朗保持克制，並譴責暴力鎮壓。

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has said the clerical regime won't back down, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said safeguarding Iran's security was a red line.

最高領袖哈米尼表示，神權政權不會退縮，而伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊則說，保衛伊朗安全是紅線。

Iran's streets remain tense, with neither the protesters nor the state showing any sign of retreat.

伊朗街頭氣氛依然緊張，示威者和政府都看不出有任何退讓的跡象。

Farah Sejas is a Middle east expert at the London School of Economics.

法拉赫·塞賈斯是倫敦經濟學院的中東專家。

Let's pick up first on this open threat by Donald Trump against the Iranian regime.

我們先來談談川普總統對伊朗政權發出的公開威脅。

Well, I mean, you really have to speculate to read Donald Trump's mind.

嗯，我的意思是，你真的得猜測才能讀懂川普總統的心思。

He says he will hit the Iranian leadership where it hurts the most.

他說他會重擊伊朗領導層最痛的地方。

And if you ask me to speculate, he really means assassinating Iran's top leaders and attacking strategic targets of the revolutionary gods.

如果問我猜測，他其實是指暗殺伊朗最高領導人和攻擊革命衛隊的戰略目標。

But at the end of the day, what we need to understand is that Donald Trump is cynically exploiting the legitimate grievances of the Iranian people.

不過說到底，我們需要明白的是，唐納·川普正在惡意利用伊朗人民正當的不滿。

And my answer to your question is that Donald Trump does not really have any moral authority to really side with the internal protesters in Iran.

而我對你問題的回答是，唐納·川普其實沒有任何道德權威可以真正支持伊朗的內部抗議者。

Look what he's doing in the United States.

I mean, he is cracking down against the Senate.

我的意思是，他正在鎮壓參議院。

He's violating international law and the U.S. constitution.

他正在違反國際法和美國憲法。

He's turning the United States into more and more, into an authoritarian state.

他正把美國越來越變成一個威權國家。

Leave the Iranian people alone to decide their own future and their own internal affairs.

讓伊朗人民自己決定他們的未來和內部事務吧。

Well, I think what we have seen in the past two weeks, I think we're seeing the protesters or the protest spreading to more cities and towns.

嗯，我認為我們在過去兩週看到的情況是，我認為我們看到抗議者或抗議活動正在擴散到更多城鎮。

Despite the Internet, the blackout, The Internet, Internet blackout and the threats by the revolutionary gods.

儘管有網路、網路封鎖，以及革命衛隊的威脅。

I think what distinguishes this wave of protest, you know, than previous protests is that it's demographically more diverse.

我認為這次的抗議浪潮，跟過去的抗議活動很不一樣的地方是，它的參與人口組成更多元。

You have students, you have middle class people, you have professionals, you have merchants, you have working class people.

你有學生、有中產階級、有專業人士、有商人、有勞工階級。

And I think what we need to understand now is that Iran is really facing a perfect storm.

我認為我們現在需要了解的是，伊朗真的面臨著一個完美風暴。

Severe internal challenges and also threats by both the United States and Israel.

嚴重的內部挑戰，以及來自美國和以色列的威脅。

So the question is, will the Iranian leadership be able to overcome not only the external threats, but

所以問題是，伊朗領導人能否克服不只外部威脅，

also the grievances, the internal economic and social and political grievances of millions of Iranians?

還有數百萬伊朗人內部的經濟、社會和政治不滿？

And do you believe the son of the last Shah, living in exile in the US has popular support in Iran?

你認為流亡美國的前伊朗國王的兒子，在伊朗有民眾支持嗎？

Well, I mean, first of all, we don't really have any surveys, we don't really have any polls about the popularity of the son of the Shah.

嗯，我的意思是，首先，我們其實沒有任何關於前伊朗國王之子的受歡迎程度的調查或民意測驗。

But if you ask me, knowing what we know about the Iranian people and their hopes and aspirations, I don't think the Iranian people want the Shah regime to return to Iran.

但如果問我，基於我們對伊朗人民及其希望與渴望的瞭解，我不認為伊朗人民希望前伊朗國王政權回到伊朗。

What we need to understand about what's happening in Iran is that it's leaderless, unlike previous waves.

我們需要了解的是，伊朗現在發生的事是沒有領導者的，這和過去幾波情況不同。

So the son of the Shah now comes in and yes, some Iranians respond.

所以前伊朗國王的兒子現在出現了，是的，有些伊朗人有所回應。

But at the end of the day, I think what the Iranians want, they want genuine change.

但歸根究柢，我認為伊朗人民想要的是真正的改變。

They want transition from authoritarianism to pluralism as opposed to democracy at this particular stage.

他們想要從威權轉向多元化，而不是在這個特定階段追求民主。

At the end of the day, I have no doubts in my mind that is the Iranian people and some elements of the government, because, remember, the regime is not really a monolith.

歸根究柢，我對伊朗人民以及政府內部某些派別毫無疑問，因為請記住，這個政權並非鐵板一塊。

We're not just talking about the regime versus the people.

我們不只是在談論政權對人民的對抗。

You have some major elements within the Islamic Republic who call for a paradigm change.

在伊斯蘭共和國內部，確實有一些重要人物主張要徹底改變現狀。

A paradigm change that takes Iran from its current terrible situation economically and socially and politically into a much more, you might say, forward looking and inclusive society.

這種徹底改變，是為了讓伊朗擺脫目前糟糕的經濟、社會和政治困境，走向一個更具前瞻性和包容性的社會。

Dwellami 加入我們，他來自 DW 波斯語服務。

What point have these protests now reached?

這些抗議活動現在進行到什麼階段了？

Although nationwide Internet blackouts remain in place now for more than 40 hours, there were some videos coming out showing the protests are continuing in Tehran and and other cities.

雖然全國性的網路封鎖已經持續了 40 多個小時，但還是有一些影片流出，顯示德黑蘭和其他城市的抗議活動仍在繼續。

To be honest, I was up all night following the development and what I'm hearing and seeing is that the crowd are dramatically different from previous waves of protests both in scale and in intensity.

說實話，我一整晚都在關注事態發展，我聽到和看到的是，這次抗議的人潮，無論是規模還是強度，都與之前的幾波抗議截然不同。

So the number of people involved is unprecedented compared to past years.

所以這次參與的人數，跟過去幾年比起來，真的是前所未有。

And the government's crackdown have been significantly more more violent.

而且政府的鎮壓行動，也比以往更加暴力。

So many disturbing videos showing people killed in different cities have been widely circulated in social media and human rights organizations report at least 79 people killed so far.

網路上流傳著許多令人不安的影片，顯示不同城市都有民眾遭到殺害，人權組織也報導，目前至少有 79 人死亡。

But there is another report that Time magazine has reported that a doctor in Tehran confirmed 270 deaths caused by live ammunition were registered on Thursday night alone across six hospitals in Tehran.

不過，有另一份報導指出，《時代》雜誌報導，德黑蘭的一名醫生證實，光是週四晚上，德黑蘭就有六家醫院登記了 270 起實彈射擊造成的死亡案例。

But however, due to severe communication restrictions, verified death toll remains extremely difficult to get, to calculate and to obtain.

但是，由於嚴重的通訊限制，要確認死亡人數仍然非常困難，難以計算和取得。

By the sounds of it, the government's not backing down.

聽起來，政府似乎沒有要退讓的意思。

The scale of official threats have been extremely high.

官方的威脅程度，已經到了極高的地步。

Authorities openly warn people that if live ammunition is used they they should not complain and and protesters have been labeled as terrorists and agents of foreign enemies.

當局公然警告民眾，如果使用實彈，他們不應該抱怨，而且抗議者被貼上了恐怖分子和外國敵人的標籤。

That's what I have never seen or heard like this.

這是我從來沒有見過或聽過的情況。

But what we are seeing suggests that fear is no longer working the way it used to.

不過，我們看到的情況顯示，恐懼似乎已經不像過去那樣奏效了。

Despite these warnings and increasingly violence crackdown people are still coming out.

儘管有這些警告和越來越嚴厲的鎮壓，人們還是走上街頭。

For many Iranians the sense of injustice and desperation now outweighs the fear of repression.

對許多伊朗人來說，現在的不公和絕望感已經蓋過了對鎮壓的恐懼。

Is there any indication yet that the exiled son of the Shah has any sway on demonstrators and the situation in Iran?

有沒有跡象顯示，流亡的前伊朗國王的兒子對示威者和伊朗的局勢有任何影響力？

Given his support base and the current situation in Iran, yes, today anyone who can have an impact on the protest carries weight.

考量到他的支持基礎和伊朗目前的局勢，是的，今天任何能對抗議產生影響的人都很有份量。

So Reza Pahlavi has the support of a significant portion of people inside Iran.

所以，禮薩·巴列維得到了伊朗境內相當一部分人的支持。

But it is important to stress that not all protesters are his supporters.

但重要的是要強調，並非所有抗議者都是他的支持者。

However, estimating how many people truly see him as an alternative to the regime in Iran is extremely difficult and only possible through free and open polls.

不過，要估計有多少人真正視他為伊朗政權的替代選項，是非常困難的，只能透過自由開放的民意調查來得知。

But one key reason for Pahlavi slogans stand out is that monarchists have a public figure while other opposition forces do not.

但巴列維的口號之所以脫穎而出，一個關鍵原因在於，君主派有公眾人物，而其他反對勢力則沒有。

And at the same time, like being outside Iran does not mean that he can remain passive.

同時，身在伊朗境外，並不代表他就能袖手旁觀。

So he's under strong pressure now from inside the country, from outside to act and support protesters.

所以，他現在面臨來自國內和國外的巨大壓力，要求他採取行動支持示威者。

It is also worth remembering that opposition leadership inside Iran often means prison, exile, or death.

也值得記住的是，伊朗國內的反對派領袖，往往意味著牢獄之災、流亡或死亡。

So at this stage, many different opposition groups, including those critical of monarchy, are focused less on political differences and more on ending the Islamic Republic.

是以，在這個階段，許多不同的反對派團體，包括那些批評君主制的團體，都較少關注政治分歧，而更專注於結束伊斯蘭政權。

So differences will re emerge after regimes fall, but

所以，政權垮臺後，分歧會再次出現，但

that is normal and essential part of any democratic transition, I guess.

我猜，這也是任何民主過渡的正常且必要的一部分。

Yeah, well, we're not talking about a democracy here, so where do you see this going?

是啊，嗯，我們這裡談論的不是民主，所以你認為這會走向何方？

Considering that you say these are bigger, more intense, these protests and the government more violent than ever, yeah, there is a long pass through democracy.

考量到你說這些抗議活動比以往更大、更激烈，政府也比以往更暴力，是的，要走向民主還有很長的路要走。