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Ready or not, 2020 is here- at least politically.
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It’s important enough that I thought I would wear a tie.
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This cycle will be consumed by the presidential race, but don’t forget about the fight for
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Congress.
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In the Senate, Republicans picked up a couple seats in 2018.
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But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, keeping
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a majority within reach in 2020.
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First of all, we need to be precise about how we talk about the fight for the Senate
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because the number of seats Democrats need to control the Senate depends on the outcome
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of the presidential race.
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Democrats need to gain 4 seats for a majority, but a gain of 3 seats would be enough for
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control of the Senate if there is a new Democratic vice president to break a 50-50 tie.
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The 2020 Senate map is a stark contrast to 2018.
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In 2018, Democrats defended 26 Senate seats while Republican defended just 9.
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In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 seats while Democrats defend 12.
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More targets should be good for the party trying to recapture the majority.
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But 2016 was the first time in history that all of the senate results matched the presidential
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outcome.
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A similar dynamic (and presidential result) in 2020 would produce no net gain for Democrats
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because they would lose Alabama and Michigan while winning Colorado and Maine.
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Using the 2012 presidential results as a guide for the 2020 Senate map, Democrats would gain
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two Senate seats.
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If the 2008 presidential results applied, Democrats would gain three seats.
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The initial list of vulnerable senators is fairly short.
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Just two Democrats are up for re-election in Trump states: Doug Jones and Gary Peters.
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And two Republicans up for re-election in Clinton states: Cory Gardner and Susan Collins.
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But Republicans Martha McSally, Thom Tillis, David Perdue, and Joni Ernst should have competitive
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races and Democrats Tina Smith and Jeanne Shaheen could have competitive races as well.
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Overall, the presidential race will impact the fight for the Senate in multiple ways.
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Eight races will take place in competitive presidential states.
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There are at least two races with incumbent senators contemplating running for president
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(New Jersey and Oregon), and two states with a potential Senate candidate considering running
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for president first (Montana, Colorado).
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Of course it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like, how voters
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will feel about the economy and direction of the country, and whether they’ll believe
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more Democrats are needed in Washington.
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And it’s too early to determine the final scope and size of the Senate playing field,
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which will be partially determined by retirements, recruitment, primaries, and how the presidential
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race plays out.
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Based on the initial map, Republicans should be viewed as slight favorites to maintain
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control, but we’ve got a long way to go, and the margin is close enough that the majority
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should be regarded as in-play.
