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  • TWO DEAL AT SOME POINT DOWN THE

  • ROAD.

  • >> THANK YOU, GARRETT.

  • IT'S BEEN A GREAT YEAR FOR THE

  • U.S. ECONOMY AND THE STOCK

  • MARKET.

  • SO WHAT'S IN STORE FOR 2020?

  • MY NEXT GUEST IS PRETTY

  • OPTIMISTIC AND HIS TRACK RECORD

  • IS PRETTY GOOD.

  • WHITE HOUSE TRADE ADVISOR PETER

  • NAVARRO JOINING ME FROM THE

  • WHITE HOUSE.

  • GOOD TO SEE YOU, HAPPY NEW YEAR,

  • MY FRIEND.

  • >> WHAT A GREAT DAY IN THE

  • SWAMP, IT FEELS LIKE SPRING, A

  • GREAT YEAR AHEAD.

  • DAVID: FEELS GREAT IN NEW YORK

  • AS WELL.

  • JUST LAST AUGUST, AS GREAT AS

  • THINGS APPEAR IN THE ECONOMY,

  • WITH THE STOCK MARKET, ET

  • CETERA, I SAW AN INTERVIEW THAT

  • YOU DID WITH ABC AND YOU HAD TO

  • TALK MARTHA RADITZ OFF A CLIFF

  • AND IT WAS LOOMING AND TURNS OUT

  • YOU WERE RIGHT.

  • WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS FOR

  • NEXT YEAR?

  • >> THE FAKE NEWS AND THE LEFT

  • WING COULDN'T WAIT FOR THAT

  • RECESSION.

  • DAVID: NEVER HAPPENED.

  • >> FOR A GREAT ECONOMY.

  • WHAT I'VE GOT FOR YOU, DAVID,

  • PRETTY CLEAR.

  • WE'RE GOING TO GET REALLY GDP

  • GROWTH, ROBUST.

  • WE'RE GOING TO SEE DOW 32,000 BY

  • THE END OF THE YEAR AND WE'RE

  • GOING TO BREAK 30,000 FAIRLY

  • SOON.

  • I PREDICTED THAT SOME MONTHS

  • AGO.

  • IF, IF WE GOT PASSAGE OF USMCA

  • AND WE GOT THE FED TO LOWER

  • THEIR INTEREST RATES, BOTH OF

  • THOSE THINGS ARE IN PLACE.

  • BUT THE BIGGER FORECAST HERE,

  • DAVID, I'M BASING THAT--

  • I THINK YOU REMEMBER, I USED TO

  • DO THIS IN MY OTHER LIFE AS A

  • MACRO FORECASTER.

  • YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK AT THE FOUR

  • DRIVERS OF THE ECONOMY AND THE

  • GDP ENGINE AND RIGHT NOW THEY'RE

  • HITTING ON ALL CYLINDERS.

  • YOU START WITH THE CONSUMER.

  • THE CONSUMER, BECAUSE

  • UNEMPLOYMENT IS SO LOW, WAGES

  • ARE RISING, OPTIMISM IS HIGH.

  • AND THIS CONSUMER IS GOING TO BE

  • THE ANCHOR OF THE ECONOMY IN

  • 2020, SO THAT'S NUMBER ONE.

  • NUMBER TWO, ON THE TRADE FRONT,

  • WE'VE GOT FIVE TRADE DEALS NOW

  • IN PLACE.

  • FIVE TRADE DEALS COVERING TRADE,

  • WELL MORE THAN HALF OF WHAT WE

  • TRADE IN THE INTERNATIONAL

  • ARENA.

  • JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, CHINA,

  • CANADA AND MEXICO, SO THAT'S

  • GOING TO BE A BOON FOR OUR

  • EXPORTS AND THEN THE SNEAKY

  • LITTLE THING, I'M TELLING YOU,

  • DAVID, THIS IS LIKE -- THIS

  • SEALED THE DEAL FOR A GREAT

  • 2020, WHEN CONGRESS PASSED THE

  • NDAA, THE NATIONAL DEFENSE

  • AUTHORIZATION ACT COUPLED WITH

  • THE APPROPRIATIONS BILL AND

  • BASICALLY GOT GOVERNMENT IS

  • GOING TO BE ONE OF THE ENGINES

  • AND DRIVERS OF GROWTH,

  • PARTICULARLY IN SOMETHING THAT I

  • WORK ON A LOT, THE DEFENSE

  • INDUSTRIAL BASE, AND THEN

  • INVESTMENT, WHICH IS THE FORTH

  • PART OF THE PUZZLE HERE, NOW

  • THAT WE HAVE ALL OF THESE TRADE

  • DEALS IN PLACE AND THIS ECONOMY

  • IS BOOMING, NOW THAT THE

  • AMERICAN ECONOMY IS BY FAR THE

  • BEST PLACE TO BE, INVESTMENT IS

  • GOING TO BOOM.

  • DAVID: TALK SPECIFICALLY.

  • >> I'M LOOKING AT A GREAT YEAR?

  • TALK SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE

  • MEXICAN CANADA TRADE DEAL, USMCA

  • AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.

  • NOT EVERYBODY IS DOING GREAT IN

  • THIS ECONOMY.

  • THERE ARE SOME FARMERS, SOME

  • MANUFACTURERS, WHO ARE HAVING

  • TROUBLE BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS

  • AND THEY WERE -- THEY NOW ARE

  • LOOKING TO THE MEXICAN-CANADA

  • TRADE DEAL AS HELPING THEM

  • INCREASE THEIR PURCHASES, RIGHT,

  • AND THEIR SALES?

  • >> WELL, IT'S ALL OF THE TRADE

  • DEALS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS

  • NEGOTIATED FOR AND THE FARMERS

  • ARE GOING TO LOVE EVERY ONE OF

  • THEM.

  • YOU'VE GOT THE JAPAN DEAL, DON'T

  • FORGET ABOUT THAT ONE, THAT $7

  • BILLION IN NEW TRADE IN

  • AGRICULTURAL GOODS.

  • YOU'VE GOT THE SOUTH KOREAN

  • DEAL.

  • CANADA AND MEXICO ARE REALLY

  • IMPORTANT, BOTH FARMERS AND OUR

  • AUTO INDUSTRY THAT ARE GOING TO

  • BENEFIT.

  • THE CHINA DEAL, WE'RE GOING TO

  • HAVE--

  • CHINA'S PLEDGED TO BUY 200

  • BILLION DOLLARS MORE ABOVE THE

  • 2017 BASELINE OVER THE NEXT TWO

  • YEARS AND ABOUT A FOURTH OF THAT

  • IS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS SO

  • YOU'RE LOOKING AT ROUGHLY THE

  • DOUBLE AMOUNT OF PURCHASES OF

  • 2017.

  • DAVID: LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE

  • CHINA TRADE DEAL.

  • BACK IN MAY WE THOUGHT WE HAD A

  • DEAL WITH THE CHINESE.

  • THEY BROUGHT IT BACK TO BEIJING

  • AND THE FOLKS, THE POLLIT BUREAU

  • RIPPED IT UP, SAID NO GOOD.

  • >> NO, WE'RE ON TRACK.

  • THE ONLY THING HOLDING THINGS UP

  • IS BASICALLY THE CHINESE

  • TRANSLATION OF THE 86-PAGE

  • ENGLISH VERSION OF THE DEAL.

  • AS SOON AS THAT'S DONE, IT WILL

  • BE RELEASED AND THERE WILL BE A

  • SIGNING, BUT LET ME SAY THIS

  • GENTLY BECAUSE I DON'T WANT TO

  • BE CRITICAL, BUT THE REPORTING

  • JUST BEFORE I GOT ON, I WAS

  • LISTENING, WAS WRONG BECAUSE IT

  • SAID THAT THIS PHASE ONE DEAL

  • DIDN'T COVER TOUGH ISSUES LIKE

  • INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THEFT AND

  • CURRENCY.

  • IN FACT, LET ME JUST WALK YOU

  • THROUGH WHAT--

  • >> WE ONLY HAVE BEEN 30 SECONDS.

  • I JUST WANT TO ASK ONE QUESTION

  • THOUGH.

  • >> SURE.

  • DAVID: YOU WROTE A BOOK ONES

  • "DEATH BY CHINA".

  • >> A MOVIE, TOO.

  • DAVID: IN LIGHT OF YOUR VIEWS

  • AND THE PRESIDENT'S VIEWS, DO

  • YOU THINK THAT CHINA IS A BIGGER

  • THREAT THAN IT IS A HOPE OR A

  • PLUS FOR U.S. INTERESTS?

  • >> I THINK WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP

  • HAS DONE TO HIS ENORMOUS CREDIT

  • OVER THE LAST THREE YEARS IS

  • CHANGED THE WAY AMERICANS LOOK

  • AT CHINA AND THAT'S TO THE GOOD.

  • I THINK WE'RE MUCH MORE WARY

  • ABOUT CHINA, BOTH ON CAPITOL

  • HILL AND ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.

  • HE'S CHANGED, THEY SAY THE

  • NARRATIVE ON THIS AND THAT'S

  • GOING TO MAKE US STRONGER.

  • WHAT HE'S DOING IS PROVIDING

  • TOUGHNESS AND THAT'S GOOD FOR

  • THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND GOOD FOR

  • THE HEARTLAND.

  • DAVID: BY THE WAY, YOU HAVE A

  • PIECE IN FOXNEWS.COM RIGHT NOW

  • THAT WE SHOULD ALERT OUR VIEWERS

  • TO ABOUT DRONES AND HOW A LOT OF

  • THESE DRONES HAVE PARTS FROM

  • CHINA THAT COULD BE A SECURITY

  • PROBLEM FOR US, RIGHT?

  • QUICKLY.

  • >> YEAH, QUICKLY, THE DRONES

  • THEMSELVES, THE PROBLEM WITH A

  • LOT OF THE CHINESE PRODUCTS THEY

  • SELL HERE IS ALL OF YOUR

  • INFORMATION GOES DIRECTLY BACK

  • TO SERVERS IN CHINA.

  • WHAT COULD GO WRONG THERE?

  • I'LL LET YOU GO ABOUT THAT, BUT

  • LET'S HAVE A POSITIVE 2020.

  • DAVID: YES, INDEED.

  • >> A BOOM YEAR FOR THE TRUMP

  • ECONOMY, HIGH WAGES, LOW

  • UNEMPLOYMENT, HAPPY NEW YEAR.

TWO DEAL AT SOME POINT DOWN THE

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彼得-納瓦羅談對2020年美國經濟的預測。 (Peter Navarro on predictions for the U.S. economy in 2020)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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