Name: 川普對伊朗選項不多！NIAC主席這麼說 (Trump doesn't have many options on Iran: NIAC chairman)
Uploaded: 2026-03-23T23:09:53.000Z
Duration: 4 min 7 s

And National Iranian-American Council President Jamal Abdi is here for more.

國家伊朗裔美國人委員會主席 Jamal Abdi 在這裡為我們深入解析。

So what's your reaction to the president saying the U.S.

and Iran have had very good and productive conversations about resolving hostilities while Iran is denying any talks are happening?

和伊朗就解決敵對行動進行了非常良好且富有成效的對話，但伊朗卻否認有任何談判正在進行，你的看法是什麼？

Well I think first of all the fact that the United States is leveraging war crimes talking about blowing up power plants I think demonstrates that Trump does not have very many options here.

嗯，我認為首先，美國利用戰爭罪、談論炸毀發電廠，這表明川普在這裡沒有太多選擇。

And so there's a lot of speculation that he is sort of spinning this to calm the markets and just happens to be saying well I'm not going to commit those war crimes for five days until the market closes and then who knows.

是以，有很多猜測認為他是在操弄這件事來安撫市場，只是碰巧說「我不會犯下這些戰爭罪，直到市場收盤五天為止，之後就不好說了」。

So the fact that the Iranians are saying that there are no talks happening I think there likely has been an exchange of messages.

所以，伊朗方面說沒有談判，我認為很可能已經有訊息交換了。

The question though is is the United States prepared to give up concessions because the Iranians are not going to just open up the Strait of Hormuz unless they get something for it.

但問題是，美國是否準備好讓步，因為伊朗人不會無緣無故地開放荷姆茲海峽，除非他們能得到一些東西。

They believe they're in the position of power on that question.

他們認為他們在這件事上有主導權。

And so it really remains to be seen what is the United States willing to give if these if there really are serious talks being brokered indirectly then I think a solution is possible.

所以我們真的要看美國願意付出什麼，如果真的有透過間接方式促成的嚴肅會談，我認為就有可能找到解決方案。

But Iran does not want this war to repeat itself.

Remember this is the second war on Iran in less than a year.

請記得，這不到一年內對伊朗的第二次戰爭了。

And I think Iran wants to retain this leverage that it's built up by demonstrating that it can inflict a lot of pain on the United States and the world if it's attacked.

我認為伊朗想保留它透過展示如果受到攻擊就能對美國和世界造成巨大痛苦來建立的籌碼。

So those two things are I think going to be in mind in those negotiations if they are in fact happening.

所以這兩件事，我認為會在那些談判中被考慮進去，如果它們真的正在發生的話。

You say there are no good options for continuing the war.

你說沒有好的選項可以繼續這場戰爭。

Well we're looking at putting ground troops into Iran potentially trying to seize Khark Island.

嗯，我們正在考慮派地面部隊進入伊朗，試圖佔領哈爾克島。

We're talking about a couple thousand Marines.

我們說的是幾千名海軍陸戰隊。

That number could quickly spike based on how that goes.

這個數字可能會根據情況發展而迅速飆升。

If you put troops on Khark Island they're sort of sitting ducks there.

如果你把部隊派到哈爾克島，他們在那裡就像活靶子一樣。

The Iranians are not going to stand by idly while that island is occupied.

伊朗人不會在那個島嶼被佔領時袖手旁觀。

So it's really it's a huge investment by the United States to escalate this further and it will make the potential of actually winding this down an even more distant prospect.

所以這確實是美國為了進一步升級衝突而做出的巨大投資，這將使得真正結束衝突的前景更加渺茫。

So I think we're at this fork in the road where Trump has these options but they are not ones that are going to end this quickly.

所以我認為我們正處於一個岔路口，川普有這些選項，但它們都不是能快速結束這場衝突的選項。

And so this diplomatic offer ramp I think looks a lot more attractive bearing all that in mind.

考慮到這一切，我認為這個外交提議的空間看起來更有吸引力。

You also say Iranian protests aren't materializing despite calls from opposition figures.

你也說，儘管有反對派人士呼籲，伊朗的抗議活動並沒有出現。

What happens to that movement if the U.S. pulls out at this stage?

如果美國在這個階段撤軍，那個運動會怎麼樣？

I think Iran is it's it's war torn right now.

我認為伊朗現在正飽受戰爭摧殘。

But I don't think that the stability that the remainder of the Islamic Republic has managed to project is necessarily something that will bear out after a war.

但我不認為伊斯蘭共和國目前所展現的穩定性，在戰後會必然持續下去。

I think there is still you know a lot of frustration from the people.

我認為人民心中還是有很多不滿。

A lot of you know people are still very traumatized by the fact that thousands of Iranians were killed by the Islamic Republic earlier this year.

很多人都還對今年稍早伊斯蘭共和國殺害數千名伊朗人的事情感到非常創傷。

And so potentially there is a negotiation between society and the rulers over what things look like after the war.

所以，社會和統治者之間，或許會有關於戰後局勢的談判。

Potentially though there is you know a crackdown by this government that has become more radicalized because of all the leadership being killed and a more radical group of leaders stepping into the into the fore.

但也有可能，這個政府因為領導層的死亡而變得更加激進，並且有更激進的領導群體取而代之，進而進行鎮壓。

And so I really I fear for what's next for the Iranian people.

所以我真的很擔心伊朗人民接下來的處境。

I hope that this is an opportunity for change that is positive.

我希望這是一個積極改變的機會。

But everything that has happened so far in this war I think has set back hopes that there was potential for positive change.

但我認為，到目前為止這場戰爭所發生的一切，都讓過去對積極改變潛力的希望變得渺茫。

And instead we have a government that has become more radical more entrenched and is unlikely to to treat any dissent with with with restraint.

而我們看到的卻是一個變得更激進、更根深蒂固的政府，而且不太可能以任何剋制來對待任何異議。

National Iranian-American Council President Jamal Abdi thank you.

國家伊朗裔美國人委員會主席 Jamal Abdi，謝謝你。