Name: 伊朗是否正滑向區域全面孤立？| DW 新聞 (Is Iran sliding into total isolation in the region? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T17:05:53.000Z
Duration: 12 min 2 s

Iranian politics in the Gulf used to look like this.

過去波灣地區的伊朗政治看起來是這樣。

Following the joint Israeli and US attacks on Iran, the Islamic Republic lashed out and struck its neighbors.

在以色列和美國聯手攻擊伊朗後，伊斯蘭共和國發動攻擊，打擊鄰國。

All the Gulf nations also referred to as GCC countries.

所有波灣國家，也就是海灣合作委員會國家。

Many places it hit host US bases or military facilities.

許多被擊中的地方都有美軍基地或軍事設施。

Even so, those retaliation strikes have not only done actual damage, they've also done significant diplomatic damage.

儘管如此，這些報復性攻擊不僅造成實際損害，也造成了重大的外交損害。

That was made clear by the Qatari Prime Minister in an exclusive interview with Sky News 10 days into the war.

戰爭進行到第十天，卡達總理在接受 Sky News 獨家專訪時，清楚地表達了這一點。

What happened is really a huge shake up for the trust in the relationship that we have with Iran.

發生的一切，真的讓大家對我們與伊朗的信任關係，產生了巨大的動搖。

Iran's response greatly increased the cost of the war economically by pushing up oil and gas prices and politically too, because instead of three countries countries being involved, Iran, Israel and the US the war now directly affects more than a dozen countries in one way or another.

伊朗的回應，透過推升油氣價格，在經濟上大幅增加了戰爭的成本，政治上也是如此，因為戰爭不再只是伊朗、以色列和美國三個國家參與，現在直接影響到十幾個國家，或多或少。

They are working on the assumption that if I'm going down, you're all going down with me.

他們抱持著一種假設，就是「如果我要沉下去，你們所有人也都要跟我一起沉下去」。

The conflict has the potential to shake the region to its core.

這場衝突有潛力讓整個區域動盪不安。

To understand why, we need to look at a couple of dynamics.

為了了解原因，我們需要看看幾個關鍵因素。

A few years ago the Islamic Republic had started to draw up agreements with the Gulf states.

幾年前，伊斯蘭共和國開始和海灣國家擬定協議。

And one reason for that is in Yemen, the militant Houthi rebel group there is a proxy of Iran and designated a terror group by the us.

其中一個原因是，在葉門，那裡的胡塞叛軍是伊朗的代理人，並被美國列為恐怖組織。

The Houthis had been attacking ships and oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

胡塞叛軍一直在攻擊沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國的船隻和油田。

Their agreement with the Saudis and the UAE both had previously launched air campaigns during the Yemen civil war in support of Sunni backed forces.

他們與沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋的協議，都曾在葉門內戰期間發動空襲，以支持遜尼派支持的勢力。

Those Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE made those countries look to Iran for answers.

胡塞叛軍對沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯酋的攻擊，讓這些國家轉向伊朗尋求答案。

The Islamic Republic managed to create anxiety across the Gulf that if you do not normalize relations with us, we're going to attack.

伊斯蘭共和國成功地在海灣地區製造了焦慮，讓大家覺得如果不跟我們正常化關係，我們就要攻擊。

One way or another, we're going to hurt you, which they've done.

他們總會想辦法讓你不好過，他們也確實這麼做了。

Sara Basubandi is a researcher on Iran and the GCC countries.

Sara Basubandi 是研究伊朗和海灣合作委員會國家的一位研究員。

She has decades of experience on security and peace in the region.

她在該地區的安全與和平方面有數十年的經驗。

Some Gulf states decided to deal with Iran not because they had a lot in common, but

一些海灣國家決定與伊朗打交道，並非因為他們有很多共同點，而是

The UAE and Iran made a sort of gentleman's agreement to refrain from inflicting pain on each other.

阿聯酋和伊朗達成了一種君子協定，避免互相造成傷害。

Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic even agreed to restore ties and reopen embassies.

沙烏地阿拉伯和伊斯蘭共和國甚至同意恢復關係並重開大使館。

So there was some functioning unwritten security agreements between them.

所以他們之間存在一些運作中的、不成文的安全協議。

And I wouldn't say that they were closed by any stretch of imagination.

而且，我絕不會說這些協議已經終止了。

They were not cooperating in any sense, but

他們並非在任何意義上進行合作，但是

they just had some sort of understanding that they wouldn't have each other Iran hoped this would end up affecting trade relations and boost its economy, which has been suffering under sanctions.

他們之間達成了一種默契，就是不會互相傷害，伊朗希望這能影響貿易關係並提振因制裁而受苦的經濟。

They were embarking on huge projects to move their economies away from oil to something more sustainable.

他們正著手進行大型計畫，希望將經濟從石油轉向更永續的發展。

They needed peace in order to foster the images they wanted of being vibrant, safe havens for commerce, tourism and technology.

他們需要和平，才能塑造出自己想要的形象，成為商業、觀光和科技充滿活力又安全的避風港。

Jordanian air defense crews recently intercepted a cluster of Iranian one way attack drones headed to Amman.

約旦的防空部隊最近攔截了一批飛往安曼的伊朗單向攻擊無人機。

Bahrain's air defense forces shot down an inbound drone approaching Manamah's maritime infrastructure, protecting both their population and critical shipping lanes.

巴林的防空部隊擊落了一架接近馬納馬海上基礎設施的來襲無人機，保護了他們的人民和重要的航運通道。

Saudi Patriot batteries stopped a salvo of ballistic missiles aimed at energy facilities near Dhahran.

沙烏地的愛國者飛彈陣地攔截了一批針對德罕附近能源設施的彈道飛彈。

The UAE neutralized multiple drones targeting Abu Dhabi's industrial zone, demonstrating speed and precision.

阿聯酋擊落了數架針對阿布達比工業區的無人機，展現了速度和精準。

Qatari fighters for the first time have shot down two Iranian bombers that were en route to their location.

卡達戰機首次擊落了兩架飛往當地空域的伊朗轟炸機。

Those Iranian attacks went everywhere, but it would seem for different reasons.

那些伊朗的攻擊無處不在，但似乎有不同的原因。

Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had some relations with Iran, they were important hosts for the US military, like Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base.

雖然沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國與伊朗有些往來，但他們是美國軍隊的重要駐地，就像沙烏地阿拉伯的蘇丹王子空軍基地一樣。

In 2024, over 2,300 US soldiers were in Saudi Arabia.

2024年，有超過2,300名美軍阿兵哥駐紮在沙烏地阿拉伯。

The UAE is home to the Al Dhufra Air Base, an important hub for the US Air Force.

阿拉伯聯合大公國是美軍空軍重要樞紐——阿爾達夫拉空軍基地的所在地。

These military assets seem to have turned the countries hosting them into targets, regardless of whether the US used them to launch attacks against Iran.

這些軍事資產似乎讓駐紮的國家變成了目標，無論美國是否利用它們來攻擊伊朗。

It is not officially clear that these bases were used or not.

目前還不清楚這些基地是否被使用。

Various countries in the region, specifically including the United Arab Emirates that have been now hit hard by the Iranian attacks announced that they are not interested in letting the United States to use their airspace or their bases or to attack Iran.

該地區的許多國家，特別是那些現在遭到伊朗攻擊重創的阿拉伯聯合大公國，都宣佈他們不希望美國使用他們領空或基地來攻擊伊朗。

The UAE in particular was targeted by a lot of missiles and drones, almost as many as were fired against Israel in the first 24 hours.

特別是阿拉伯聯合大公國，遭到大量飛彈和無人機攻擊，數量幾乎與最初24小時內針對以色列發射的飛彈和無人機一樣多。

但這些攻擊不只針對軍事目標。

They also hit airports and civilian sites, including hotels and oil and gas infrastructure.

它們也波及機場和民用設施，包括飯店以及石油和天然氣基礎設施。

Islamic Republic wants to demonstrate it to their regional leaders that you are vulnerable even with the U.S.

伊斯蘭共和國想向區域領導人展現，即使有美國撐腰，你們仍然很脆弱。

so you better join our quote unquote team and forget about cooperation and security alliances with the United States because they can't defend you anyway.

所以你們最好加入我們所謂的「陣營」，忘掉跟美國的合作與安全聯盟，因為他們根本保護不了你們。

These two countries were closer to Iran before the war.

在這場戰爭開打前，這兩個國家跟伊朗的關係更為密切。

Qatar shares a huge gas field with Iran and its capital Doha was home for years to high ranking members of Hamas.

卡達跟伊朗共享一個巨大的天然氣田，而且它的首都杜哈多年來一直是哈瑪斯高層成員的所在地。

That's the Iranian proxy group in the Gaza Strip.

哈瑪斯是加薩走廊的伊朗代理組織。

Classified as a terrorist organization by the EU and the US it carried out the October 7 attacks on Israel.

它被歐盟和美國列為恐怖組織，並在10月7日對以色列發動攻擊。

Even so, Qatar has been under attack Qatar has largely intercepted the missiles and drones Iran has been firing against it.

即便如此，卡達在遭受攻擊時，大部分都成功攔截了伊朗發射過來的飛彈和無人機。

But the government was forced to halt liquid natural gas production after an attack on industry infrastructure.

不過，政府卻因為工業基礎設施遭到攻擊，被迫暫停液化天然氣的生產。

The attacks have driven a wedge between their politicians, as a readout between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aradchi and his Qatari counterpart shows.

這些攻擊讓他們的政治人物之間產生了嫌隙，伊朗外交部長阿巴斯·阿拉奇與卡達外交部長之間的聲明就顯示了這一點。

Every paragraph started with the Qatari foreign minister categorically rejected the claims of Mr. Arafchi.

每一段都以卡達外交部長斷然駁斥阿拉奇先生的說法開頭。

Arafchi said, we did not attack civil infrastructure.

阿拉奇說，我們沒有攻擊民用基礎設施。

Qatari side said, no, this is absolutely incorrect.

卡達方面說，不，這完全是錯誤的。

我們確實攻擊了民用基礎設施。

It hosts a smaller US Military presence than the other Gulf states, but

雖然阿曼的美國軍隊駐紮人數比其他海灣國家少，

still Iran has not exempted the country as a target.

但伊朗並沒有是以將這個國家排除在外，作為攻擊目標。

It hit an oil tanker in the waters off Muscat, Oman's capital.

它擊中了阿曼首都馬斯喀特附近海域的一艘油輪。

This despite Oman having served as a mediator in the U. S.

儘管阿曼在美國方面扮演了調解人的角色，

Iranian nuclear talks as recently as February of this year.

I'm sure Arawchi and Foreign Minister of Oman could pick up the phone any minute and speak to each other.

我確定伊朗總統和阿曼外交部長隨時可以拿起電話互相交談。

And perhaps the Omani government has really raised concern and said, this is not on.

或許阿曼政府確實表達了擔憂，並說這不行。

You know, you cannot really alienate everybody around you because that is going to work to your detriment.

你知道，你不能真的疏遠你身邊的每個人，因為那樣會對你不利。

That diplomatic role might save Oman from significant Iranian attacks.

那個外交角色或許能讓阿曼免受伊朗的重大攻擊。

When the fighting stops, Iran will need someone to help broker peace.

當戰鬥停止時，伊朗將需要有人來協助斡旋和平。

So who better than Oman, who has the track record of having done these mediations before?

那還有誰比阿曼更適合呢？他們過去就有協調的經驗。

But right now, mediations and peace seem far away.

不過現在，調解與和平似乎還很遙遠。

US President Donald Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social.

美國總統唐納·川普在他的社群媒體 Truth Social 上寫道。

The Iranians seem to be equally maximalist.

伊朗人似乎也同樣採取極端立場。

we don't see any reason why we should negotiate with the US when we negotiated with them twice and every time they attacked us at the middle of negotiations.

我們看不出有任何理由要跟美國談判，因為我們跟他們談了兩次，每次他們都在談判中途攻擊我們。

Indeed, their positioning would seem to be supported by their religion.

事實上，他們的立場似乎也受到宗教的支持。

The Islamic Republic has this very ideologically driven concept that is emerging from the Shia theology and that is victory through fear, which means you have to cause enough fear in your adversary that they would give up from even starting to fight and to confront you.

伊斯蘭共和國有一種非常意識形態驅動的概念，源自於什葉派神學，那就是「透過恐懼取得勝利」，這意味著你必須讓對手產生足夠的恐懼，讓他們放棄與你對抗或開戰。

And the Gulf states seem to be a crucial part of this strategy.

而海灣國家似乎是這項策略的關鍵一環。

Iran cannot hit the US Directly, so it's hitting them instead.

伊朗無法直接攻擊美國，所以他們選擇攻擊美國的盟友。

The strategy would seem to be one of inflicting pain, economic pressure and social disruption on the Gulf states to show the US And Israel that their attacks come at a high price.

這個策略似乎是透過對海灣國家造成痛苦、經濟壓力以及社會動盪，來讓美國和以色列知道，他們的攻擊是有代價的。

That's a risky strategy that some say could backfire.

這是一個有風險的策略，有些人說可能會適得其反。

This miscalculation by the Iranians to attack the Gulf countries has destroyed everything the Iranian president did Apologize to those neighbors his country had attacked.

伊朗誤判情勢攻擊海灣國家，毀了伊朗總統先前為修補與鄰國關係所做的努力。

But this was swiftly retracted and the attacks continued.

但這項提議被迅速撤回，攻擊也持續不斷。

Perhaps a sign of internal Iranian divisions where the side wanting to make amends was shot down.

這或許顯示了伊朗內部存在分歧，想要修補關係的一方被壓制了。

This left the Gulf State states no more secure.

這讓海灣國家變得更加不安全。

If I was sitting in Abu Dhabi, if I was sitting in the Yar and watching these developments, there would be two thoughts going on in my head.

如果我坐在阿布達比，坐在葉門，看著這些發展，我腦中會有兩個想法。

One would be that the United States started something, they better end it well.

第一個想法是，美國既然挑起了這件事，就應該好好收尾。

The second thought would be that how could we possibly trust the Islamic Republic after what they've done so far?

第二個想法是，在他們做了這麼多之後，我們怎麼可能還信任伊斯蘭共和國？