Name: 伊朗戰爭：新任最高領袖為何是對川普的駁斥？| DW 新聞 (Iran war: Why the new supreme leader is a rebuke to Trump | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T23:10:58.000Z
Duration: 13 min 48 s
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程度副詞

Its been just over a week now since the conflict in Iran began.

伊朗的衝突到現在也才一個多禮拜。

And now the regime has a new supreme leader.

而現在這個政權有了新的最高領袖。

基礎被動語態

56 year old Mojtabah Khamenei will take over from his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed last weekend in US And Israeli strikes that started the current war.

56歲的Mojtabah Khamenei將接替他父親，阿亞圖拉Ali Khamenei的職位，他父親在上週末的美國和以色列襲擊中喪生，襲擊引發了目前的戰爭。

In a moment Ben Friedman and I will be discussing what the White House might make of the rise of Khamenei Jr.

稍後，我和Ben Friedman會討論白宮可能會如何看待Khamenei Jr.的崛起。

But first let's look at listen to how Iran State TV announced his appointment.

但首先，讓我們來看看伊朗國家電視臺是如何宣佈這項任命的。

This assembly after thorough and extensive deliberations and by utilizing the authority granted under Article 108 of the Constitution and in accordance with its religious duty and belief in being present before Almighty God.

這個大會經過徹底且廣泛的審議，並運用憲法第108條授予的權力，同時依循其宗教職責和對全能的上帝存在的信念。

In today's extraordinary session based on the decisive vote of the esteemed members of the assembly of Experts appoints and introduces this is Ayatollah Syed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei.

在今天的特別會議中，基於專家大會各位成員的決定性投票，任命並介紹阿亞圖拉Syed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei。

May God preserve him as the third leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

願上帝保佑他，成為伊朗伊斯蘭共和國神聖體制的第三位領袖。

And here's what's known about the new Supreme Leader Mojtabah Khamenei.

關於新任最高領袖Mojtabah Khamenei，我們知道的就這些。

As I said a bit earlier, he's the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed last weekend.

就像我剛才說的，他是已故最高領袖阿亞圖拉Ali Khamenei的兒子，他父親在上週末喪生。

He's a hardliner and until now a mid level Shiite cleric.

他是個強硬派，直到現在都只是一位什葉派中階教士。

He has close ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard and so far has never held public office.

他跟伊朗的革命衛隊關係密切，而且到目前為止從未擔任過公職。

It's great to speak to Ben Friedman, Policy Director at Defense priorities in Washington D.C.

很高興能和華盛頓特區「國防優先」政策總監 Ben Friedman 聊聊。

ben, the US killed the former Supreme Leader only to have him be replaced by his own hardline son.

Ben，美國殺了前任最高領袖，結果卻換上他強硬派的兒子。

What is the White House going to make of this?

It is a strong rebuke and an unsurprising one.

的確是強烈的譴責，而且也不讓人意外。

I think anyone probably including the president, unfortunately.

我想任何人，包括總統在內，都很難過。

But anyone who's surprised that the Iranians have essentially said, you know, we're not going to let you force us to pick someone moderate or more cooperative is delusional.

但任何對於伊朗基本上說「你知道的，我們不會讓你強迫我們選一個溫和或更合作的人」感到驚訝的人，都是自欺欺人。

I mean it's the normal state of affairs that when you bomb a country and make demands of tends to drive support to the government to hardliners.

我的意思是，這很正常，當你轟炸一個國家並提出要求時，往往會讓民眾轉而支持政府和強硬派。

Normal countries are nationalistic and that's what we're seeing here from Iran.

一般國家都會有民族主義，這就是我們從伊朗看到的。

And it's completely unsurprising I think that the White House may well try to kill this supreme Leader too.

我認為白宮可能會試圖除掉這位最高領袖，這點一點也不讓人意外。

And I think unfortunately they don't understand that the more they kill the Iranian leadership, the harder line the Iranian leadership is likely to get.

我覺得不幸的是，他們不明白，殺害的伊朗領導人越多，伊朗領導人就越可能採取強硬路線。

The president doesn't seem to understand that things can always get worse.

總統似乎不明白事情總會變得更糟。

They can always get more anti American and more prone to resistance.

他們總是會變得更反美，更傾向於抵抗。

I just want to pick up on something you said.

It does seem like the new supreme Leader could have a pretty uncomfortable clock hanging over his head.

看起來新的最高領袖頭上可能懸著一把不太舒服的達摩克利斯之劍。

Yeah, I mean, the Israelis, for starters, seemed likely to try to assassinate him.

是啊，我的意思是，以色列人，首先，似乎很可能會試圖暗殺他。

And the president, United States government has shown fealty to the Israelis, unfortunately, in his willingness to sort of go along with what they want and target these regime leaders.

而美國政府，不幸的是，在願意配合以色列的要求並針對這些政權領導人方面，表現出了忠誠。

So, you know, President Trump did say that the supreme Leader's son would be an unacceptable replacement.

所以，你知道，川普總統說過，最高領袖的兒子將是一個無法接受的替代人選。

I hope he doesn't really mean that and he stops with these assassinations.

我希望他不是真的這麼想，而且他會停止這些暗殺行動。

But it doesn't bode well for anyone who's in the job under those circumstances.

但在那樣的狀況下，對任何擔任這個職位的人來說都不是個好兆頭。

What do you think it means now for how the conflict itself progresses?

你認為這對衝突本身如何發展有什麼意義？

Well, I think that it's part of a series of things that are happening, that whether or not they raise the stakes, they show again, predictably, that the Iranians aren't just going to sort of bow down and sign some deal that Trump demands of them, that they're going to resist and they're going to fight.

嗯，我認為這是正在發生的一系列事件的一部分，無論他們是否提高風險，他們都再次可以預見地表明，伊朗人不會就這樣屈服並簽署川普要求的任何協議，他們會抵抗，他們會戰鬥。

And the reaction to being attacked and having these coercive demands made of them is going to be to assert their will and show that they can't be bossed around.

而對被襲擊以及被提出這些脅迫性要求的反應，將是堅持他們的意志，並表明他們不能被頤指氣使。

The Iranians were very clear before the attack began a week ago that they don't like being told, do this or else we're going to bomb you.

在一週前襲擊開始之前，伊朗人非常清楚地表示，他們不喜歡被告知，做這個，否則我們就要炸了你。

And in fact, that they're much less likely to do those things, you know, make cooperative agreements and so forth.

事實上，你知道，他們更不可能去做那些事情，像是達成合作協議等等。

Under those circumstances, I think they were telling the truth and that the United States is simply making things harder for itself.

在這種情況下，我認為他們說的是實話，而美國只是讓自己處境更艱難。

If indeed our goal was to get some sort of deal here by making these demands and bombing to get them, we would have been better off a week ago just signing the deal that the Iranians are ready to sign.

如果我們真的想透過提出這些要求和轟炸來達成某種協議，那一個星期前直接簽署伊朗人願意簽署的協議會更好。

Based on what you've just said, from the Iran regime's perspective, is this appointment a gamble or is the whole situation that the region finds itself in a gamble?

根據你剛才說的，從伊朗政權的角度來看，這次任命是場賭博，還是整個地區的處境才是場賭博？

嗯，我認為在某種程度上確實是場賭博。

I mean, of course, you know, Trump said it's unacceptable to have this guy as leader.

我的意思是，當然，你知道，川普說讓這個人當領導人是不可接受的。

He clearly wants to be able to claim that he got some kind of regime change and got a more placid set of leaders in there, more cooperative set of leaders in there.

他顯然想聲稱他實現了某種政權更迭，並在那裡安插了一批更溫和、更合作的領導人。

But, you know, the Iranians view it as that if they give in to that kind of coercion, they're going to be bullied and coerced forever and that it's unacceptable from a standpoint of pride and I would say domestic politics to be pushed around that way.

但是，你知道，伊朗人認為，如果他們屈服於那種脅迫，他們將永遠被欺凌和脅迫，從驕傲和國內政治的角度來看，被這樣擺佈是不可接受的。

In fact, they'd rather be targeted for death than to give in to the United States and Israel like that.

事實上，他們寧願被鎖定為目標而死，也不願像那樣向美國和以色列屈服。

And so, you know, it may be a gamble, but

所以，你知道，這可能是一場賭博，但是

it's one they've always said they were going to make.

And again, it's just completely unsurprising.

So the new supreme leaders in place, how might the US now try and work with its regional allies to counter what is maybe a more hardline Iranian leadership or as much a hard line as it was before?

所以，新任的最高領袖到位了，美國接下來會如何試圖與區域盟友合作，來應對這個可能比以前更強硬的伊朗領導層呢？

Well, I think that the fact that there's a hard line leader in there, as there was a hard line leader before, doesn't preclude in the future some kind of deal where the Iranians would agree to some of the things that the United States had wanted them to agree to.

嗯，我認為，儘管有強硬派領袖上任，就像之前一樣，這並不排除未來達成某種協議的可能性，讓伊朗同意美國一直希望他們同意的一些事情。

In fact, that they were ready to sign a deal that was better than the Obama Iran deal, the JCPOA a week ago before we decided to bomb them.

事實上，他們在一週前就準備好簽署一份比歐巴馬伊朗協議（JCPOA）更好的協議，就在我們決定轟炸他們之前。

Anyway, the trouble is that now having bombed them for the reasons I was just talking about, I think it's much harder to even get that kind of deal.

總之，問題在於，現在因為我剛才提到的原因轟炸了他們，我認為要達成那樣的協議變得更加困難了。

So we're actually driving away the sort of deal we say we want and making it harder for the Iranians, I think, to accept that.

所以我們實際上正在推開我們聲稱想要的協議，並且讓伊朗人更難接受它。

So I think the United States should continue to hope that we can get a deal.

所以我認為美國應該繼續希望我們能達成協議。

And I don't think this supreme leader is the problem exactly.

而且我認為這位最高領袖本身並不是問題的關鍵。

But probably we're not going to be able to get any deal out of the Iranians in the near future.

但我們可能在不久的將來無法從伊朗人那裡達成任何協議。

And I think we should, the president and everyone else should strongly consider that we should just walk away from this war.

我認為我們應該，總統和所有人，都應該認真考慮我們應該退出這場戰爭。

It's not good for the American interests.

這對美國的利益來說一點好處都沒有。

So I think, you know, the sooner we stop, the better, even if we don't get a thing out of the Iranians.

所以我想，你知道，我們越快停止，就越好，即使我們從伊朗人那裡什麼都得不到。

When you say we don't work for Israel, could you explain what you mean by that?

當你說我們不是為以色列工作的，你能解釋一下你的意思嗎？

Well, I mean, we shouldn't work for Israel is a better way to put it.

嗯，我的意思是，我們不應該為以色列工作，這樣說比較好。

I think the, you know, this president has proven that he's just going to do what the Israelis want him to do.

我認為，你知道，這位總統已經證明瞭他只會做以色列人想讓他做的事。

It's, we thought maybe it wouldn't be the case, you know, within the last few months, but, you know, he's gotten dragged into war here with Iran twice now by essentially by the Israelis, by the White House's and the Secretary of State's own account.

我們以為，你知道，在過去幾個月裡情況不會是這樣，但是，你知道，根據以色列人、白宮和國務卿自己的說法，他已經兩次被捲入了與伊朗的戰爭。

We bombed because we thought if Israel bombed, then our bases would get attacked.

我們轟炸是因為我們認為如果以色列轟炸了，我們的基地就會受到襲擊。

Essentially, the Israelis are just pulling strings and Trump is dancing.

基本上，以色列人只是在操縱，而川普就在跳舞。

I think even domestic, in terms of domestic politics in the United States, it's sort of unnecessary fealty.

我認為，即使是美國的國內政治，這種做法也算是沒必要的效忠。

So, you know, we should not give the Israelis that much support.

所以，你知道，我們不應該給以色列那麼多的支持。

We should tell them, look, you're in charge of your own security.

我們應該告訴他們，看，你們的國防自己負責。

And in fact, if you want to do these aggressive things in the region, we're not even going to give you all the money we give you.

事實上，如果你們想在這個地區做這些侵略性的事情，我們甚至不會給你們像現在一樣多的錢。

But we certainly shouldn't just go to war on their behalf while we also fund their various wars and their military.

但我們絕對不應該在資助他們各種戰爭和軍隊的同時，還替他們發動戰爭。

And I think this sort of ties in, well with something you tweeted a couple of days ago.

我認為這也跟您幾天前發的一則推文有關。

You're saying this lamentable war on Iran is a product of both Trump's military adventurism and a misguided consensus that Iran is a problem that Washington needs to solve.

你說這場令人遺憾的對伊朗戰爭，是川普軍事冒險主義以及華盛頓認為伊朗是個需要解決的問題的錯誤共識所造成的。

Could you explain that a little bit more?

Yeah, I think the going back for decades in American foreign policy, you know, largely because of Iran's nuclear weapons program, you know, we've had this idea that, you know, we need to, at a minimum, get them into a deal where they agree not to build nukes.

嗯，我認為這跟美國幾十年的外交政策有關，你知道，很大程度上是因為伊朗的核武計畫，你知道，我們一直有個想法，就是我們至少要讓他們簽訂協議，同意不發展核武。

And beyond that, you know, maybe the extreme version, which unfortunately is now governing the United States, reform the Iranian regime, the government, do regime change.

更進一步說，你知道，也許極端的版本，也就是不幸現在正在主導美國的版本，就是改革伊朗政權、政府，進行政權更迭。

But, you know, I think Iran really is not a threat to the United States.

不過，我認為伊朗其實對美國沒有威脅。

You could argue that they were in the past to some degree, but

你可以說過去在某種程度上是，但是

I think that even their nuclear weapons program, which of course they didn't, they've never crossed over into weaponization.

我認為即使是他們的核武計畫，當然他們並沒有，他們從來沒有越過武器化的階段。

So I think essentially, the more we threaten them and say we're going to bomb you if you don't have nukes, the more incentive we're giving them to have nuclear weapons.

所以我認為基本上，我們越威脅他們，說如果不發展核武就要炸掉他們，我們就越給他們發展核武的誘因。

And you can see the way we treat countries like North Korea that have nuclear weapons versus the ones that don't, like Libya, where we overthrow the government.

你可以看到我們對待像北韓這種擁有核武的國家，和像利比亞這種沒有核武的國家（我們推翻了他們的政府）的方式有何不同。

So I think we've been essentially pushing them to get nukes and to do other things we don't like in order to deter us, to deter Israel.

所以我認為我們基本上一直在推動他們發展核武，以及做其他我們不喜歡的事情，來嚇阻我們，嚇阻以色列。

And in a sense, we'd be better off in terms of Iran if we just left them alone.

在某種程度上，如果我們就讓伊朗自己發展，對我們來說會更好。

So the threat, I think, is something we've basically manufactured through our own misguided foreign policy.

所以我認為，這種威脅基本上是我們自己錯誤的外交政策所製造出來的。

And it's, I think, not too late to just have at least in the future, to have a relationship with Iran where they're just a normal country where we're not trying to tell them how to defend themselves and how to govern their country.

而且我認為，未來至少還有機會，可以和伊朗建立一種正常國家的關係，我們不再試圖告訴他們如何自衛、如何治理國家。

And we essentially can leave each other alone.

As you say, some of the justifications for starting this war from the perspective of the White House have been shifting over the last week or so.

正如你所說，白宮發動這場戰爭的一些理由，在過去一週左右一直在轉變。

And a couple of days ago, Donald Trump said something to the effect of that Iran was something like two weeks away from developing a weapon.

幾天前，唐納·川普曾說，伊朗大概還有兩週就要發展出核武了。

And, you know, recently, of course, the president was bragging and exaggerating that he had totally decimated and destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons program with the bombing in June.

當然，最近總統還吹噓誇大說，他在六月的轟炸行動中，徹底摧毀了伊朗的核武計畫。

The fact is that we did, along with the Israelis, severely degrade their program, which was even then, even in the spring last year, more than two weeks away, significantly more.

事實上，我們和以色列確實嚴重削弱了他們的計畫，而即使在去年春天，他們的計畫也遠遠超過兩週的發展時間。