Name: 全球股市暫歇喘口氣 ｜ 晨間速報 (Global stocks take a breather | Morning Bid)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T17:01:04.000Z
Duration: 7 min 11 s

程度副詞

Today, global stock markets catch a break even as oil prices keep climbing on the Middle east crisis.

今天，儘管中東危機導致油價持續飆漲，全球股市暫時喘息。

Plus, Europe worries about another war related energy shock.

另外，歐洲擔心另一場與戰爭相關的能源衝擊。

And China sets its lowest GDP target since 1991.

中國設定了自1991年以來最低的GDP目標。

This is Reuters Morning Bid bringing you unfiltered market news and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom seven days a week.

這裡是路透早報，為您帶來最真實的市場新聞和分析，直接來自路透新聞編輯室，一週七天不間斷。

Well, Mike, the war is continuing to rage.

Oil prices stay elevated, yet markets seem to be steadying a bit.

油價仍然高漲，但市場似乎有點穩定下來了。

Yeah, look, I think we need to couch anything that's happening in this really kind of turbulent week within the framework that everything is being traded almost headline by headline, certainly day by day, if not hour by hour.

是的，你看，我認為我們需要將這動盪的一週內發生的任何事情，都放在這個框架下看待：所有交易幾乎都是逐條新聞、逐日進行，甚至逐小時進行的。

So it's almost like a sequencing of world markets as we go around the 24 hour period.

所以這就像是全球股市在24小時週期內的輪動。

So yesterday about sort of mid morning European time, there was something of a rally in global stocks generally.

所以昨天歐洲時間早上約莫中間的時候，全球股市普遍出現了一波漲勢。

It hinged on this idea that Iran had made some overtures to the United States, a story that's been slightly downplayed since.

這源於一種說法，認為伊朗向美國釋出了善意，不過這個說法後來被稍微淡化了。

However, it was enough just to get everyone taking a pace back, taking a breather if you like.

不過，這就足以讓大家稍微停下腳步，喘口氣。

And it saw Wall street kind of rally through yesterday's session.

這也讓華爾街在昨天的交易時段出現了反彈。

That was enough in Asia today to see a bounce back in some really big losses that they'd incurred.

這足以讓亞洲股市今天出現反彈，收復了之前的一些大跌。

Korea, the obvious one, it's kind of the, the outlier had been the outlier all year, it has to be said, but

韓國，很明顯，今年以來一直都是個例外，不得不說，

at 12%, biggest one day drop ever yesterday is, jumped back almost 10% today.

昨天創下史上最大單日跌幅12%，今天就反彈了近10%。

I think we can, we can, we can say that for sure.

And it seems to me that you have markets making these relatively big moves despite the fact that, as you say, there's not actually that much news to support it.

而且在我看來，儘管如你所說，並沒有太多新聞支持，市場卻出現了這些相對較大的波動。

And that really suggests that investors are essentially grasping at straws at this moment.

這真的顯示出投資人此刻簡直是在胡亂抓救命稻草。

Yeah, and I think there's two points to kind of make on that.

對，我認為有兩點可以提出來說明。

I think one is that as we said in the intro, the crude oil price is continuing to climb.

我認為其中一點是，正如我們在開頭所說的，原油價格持續上漲。

So we're seeing US crude set high for the week, its highest level since last June.

所以我們看到美國原油創下本週新高，是自去年六月以來的最高點。

It's gotta be something that's worrying there for Washington.

這絕對是華盛頓方面擔憂的事情。

I would say that the plans that President Trump laid out during the week to kind of calm the energy markets in particular, the idea of.

我會說，川普總統本週提出的計畫，特別是為了穩定能源市場，那個想法。

Those that didn't seem to have any particular calming effect.

那些似乎沒有什麼特別的鎮定效果。

And as we see from all the headlines, whatever about the actual conflict and the missile strikes across the region, we're seeing oil production coming grinding to a halt pretty much in all the centers there.

從所有頭條新聞中我們可以看到，不管該地區實際的衝突和飛彈攻擊如何，我們看到那裡的幾乎所有中心的原油生產都停滯了。

I mean, I think the concern is that this can really only go on so long, until all of the storage in the region starts filling up and then you really do have to start significantly curtailing production.

我認為大家擔心的是，這種情況不可能持續太久，直到該地區所有的儲油設施都開始滿載，到時候就真的必須大幅削減產量了。

You've obviously seen production already curtailed in terms of gas production in Qatar.

你顯然已經看到卡達的天然氣產量已經受到限制。

You know, a very big producer clearly now just halting any further, can't get the oil out like everybody else.

你知道，一個非常大的生產國，顯然現在就像其他人一樣，無法將石油運出去，只能暫停任何進一步的生產。

So we are in that funny situation where markets are looking to kind of catch.

所以我們現在處於一個有趣的狀況，市場正在尋找機會。

To catch a break and the energy markets are perh.

尋找喘息的機會，而能源市場似乎。

Speaking of energy markets, one of the regions that looks especially vulnerable.

說到能源市場，其中一個看起來特別脆弱的地區。

We've spoken about Asia, but also Europe.

I think when people look at what happened after the Ukraine crisis and energy prices spiked and what that meant in terms of inflation, in terms of rates, people look at where Europe is now and say, oh, are they going to be experiencing the same thing?

我想當大家回顧烏克蘭危機後發生的事，油價飆漲，以及這對通膨和利率造成的影響時，大家看看現在的歐洲，就會想，他們會不會也經歷同樣的事情？

But you wrote a piece today suggesting that that might not actually be the case.

但你今天寫了一篇文章，認為情況可能不會真的如此。

I think Europe had a big intake of breath when this happened because it all felt very like it did in 2022.

我認為歐洲在這次事件發生時，都屏住了呼吸，因為一切都感覺跟 2022 年很像。

The European gas prices, when the Russian invasion actively cut off all those pipelines back in that day, gas prices trebled in the six months after the Ukraine invasion.

俄羅斯入侵、切斷所有管線時，歐洲的天然氣價格在烏克蘭戰爭後的六個月內翻漲了兩倍。

They're up very sharply this week, partly because of the outage in Qatar, but

這週價格飆漲，部分原因是卡達的供應中斷，但

it is about 50% as we stand at the moment.

So it's a burn and it's going to push up energy price for sure, but

所以這確實會推升能源價格，但是

So this is why the duration of this conflict is so important.

所以這也是為什麼這場衝突的持續時間如此重要。

And I think going back to both why stock markets maybe generally, as well as European markets in particular, are not quite as alarmed, maybe as you might think, the spot cruise price would suggest is looking at the futures curve.

我認為，回頭看看為什麼股市普遍，尤其是歐洲股市，沒有像你預期的那麼擔憂，儘管現貨價格飆漲，這其實是看期貨曲線。

So the futures in the energy markets are talking about some normalization of these prices within the next six to 12 months.

能源市場的期貨顯示，這些價格在未來六到十二個月內將會正常化。

Now, that's still a long time and that will have an economic effect.

當然，這仍然是漫長的時間，而且會產生經濟影響。

But in Europe's case, two things are very interesting that people are pointing out.

但在歐洲的情況下，有兩件非常有趣的事情，大家都在指出。

Is actually running below the European Central Bank's target and gives the ECB a bit more room.

其實是低於歐洲央行的目標，讓歐洲央行有更多空間。

And you know, the worry coming into this was the fact that Europe may actually be in a position where it's undershooting that target on a protracted basis.

而且你知道，在這次衝突之前，大家擔心的就是歐洲可能長期達不到這個目標。

So it takes the possibility of the ECB cutting again off the table completely.

所以，歐洲央行再次降息的可能性就完全排除了。

Does it force them into a situation where they need to start hiking again?

這會不會迫使他們開始再次升息？

It's too early to tell on that one, but certainly not at this point.

現在說還太早，但至少目前不會。

And also the second thing that they would be watching very clearly is whether this affects long term inflation expectations.

而且大家也很清楚地在關注的第二件事是，這會不會影響長期的通膨預期。

You know, when we're thinking about Europe and their inflation expectations, China really factors into that.

你知道的，當我們在思考歐洲和他們的通膨預期時，中國確實是個重要的考量。

And one of the things that we got today were new GDP targets out of China.

而今天我們得到的消息之一，就是中國公佈了新的GDP目標。

And there while they might look high for other developed markets for China, they're actually somewhat on the low end.

雖然對其他已開發國家來說，中國的GDP目標可能看起來很高，但對中國來說，其實算是比較低的。

Yeah, well, it's a low since 1991 as the headlines would tell us, is not so four and a half to 5%.

是的，就像新聞標題說的，這是自1991年以來最低的，大約是4.5%到5%。

Yeah, 4.5 to 5% is there is their range now rather than a point target?

是的，4.5%到5%是他們現在的目標範圍，而不是一個確切的數字嗎？

the signaling is interesting and it shows some of the issues, structural issues that China faces and it is relying or has relied on trade, the biggest trade surplus ever last year, 1.2 trillion to generate that headline GDP growth.

這個信號很有趣，也顯示出中國面臨的一些結構性問題，他們依賴或曾經依賴貿易，去年創紀錄的貿易順差，高達1.2兆美元，來創造GDP成長的數字。

And obviously because of the issues they've had with the United States then so much of that needs to be rerouted to other places.

當然，因為他們跟美國之間的問題，所以很多東西需要轉往其他地方。

It's going to other places in Asia, but also a lot of those exports are going to Europe.

這些東西流向亞洲其他地方，但也有很多出口流向歐洲。

For today's recommended read, check out Clyde Russell's column on the huge surge in jet fuel prices.

今天的推薦閱讀，可以看看 Clyde Russell 關於航空燃油價格飆漲的文章。

And for more on any of today's stories, head to Reuters.com or the Reuters app.

想知道今天任何新聞的更多內容，請到 Reuters.com 或 Reuters app。

Follow us on your favorite podcast player.

在您常用的 podcast 播放器上追蹤我們。

And if you're on a smart speaker, just ask for the latest market news from Reuters.

如果您使用智慧音箱，直接說「請播放路透社最新的市場新聞」。

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全球股市暫歇喘口氣｜晨間速報 (Global stocks take a breather | Morning Bid)

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