Name: 以色列如何將美國推向伊朗戰爭：馬萬·比沙拉 (How Israel drove the US into the Iran war: Marwan Bishara)
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T23:03:40.000Z
Duration: 6 min 49 s

Joining us from Doha is Marwan Bashara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst.

在多哈，有半島電視臺資深政治分析師 Marwan Bashara 加入我們。

Last hour we discussed the Gulf, the regional side of this.

上個小時我們討論了海灣地區，也就是這個區域性的部分。

When I say the regional, I mean the Middle East.

當我說區域性的，我指的是中東。

You're also an expert on US Foreign policy, and

你也是美國外交政策的專家，而且

you have tracked very carefully what different presidents and administrations have done, especially in the Middle east, especially with these foreign wars.

你非常仔細地追蹤了不同總統和政府的作為，尤其是在中東，特別是這些外國戰爭。

So I'd like your assessment on day four of why this war was launched in the first place.

所以我想聽聽你在第四天對這場戰爭為何會發生的評估。

We were just discussing with our previous guest that the, you know, the shifting narrative, the shifting stories between Marco Rubio and then Donald Trump and various figures within the administration of why they started this.

我們剛才和上一位來賓討論到，你知道，敘事的轉變，Marco Rubio 和 Donald Trump 以及政府內不同人物之間關於他們為何發動這場戰爭的故事也在轉變。

It's the fact that they're making stuff up as they go along.

They haven't yet agreed on one narrative as to why they are launching one of the most consequential wars of this administration of this decade, perhaps since the beginning of the century.

他們還沒決定一個統一的敘事，來說明為何要發動這場政府任內、這十年來，甚至是本世紀以來最重大的戰爭之一。

This could prove to be worse than the war on Iraq.

這場戰爭可能會比伊拉克戰爭還要糟。

And they still cannot reach a consensus amongst themselves as to why and when and how.

他們之間還是無法達成共識，關於為何、何時、以及如何發動戰爭。

I mean, that's why I'm saying this is the story in the sense that it's not normal.

我的意思是，這就是為什麼我說這是一個故事，因為這很不尋常。

And the problem lies not so much of miscommunication.

It's the fact that they are manufacturing the reason for this war.

他們是在為這場戰爭製造理由。

And as they manufacture it, since there is not one absolute truth about why, it tends to be interpreted different ways, since they are in different places coming at it from different points of views.

隨著他們製造理由，因為對於為何發動戰爭沒有一個絕對真理，這就容易被用不同的方式詮釋，因為他們身處不同位置，從不同的觀點來看待這件事。

And the most controversial aspect of it is the one that the journalists just interrogated, basically, Rubio, on which is the role of Israel, which I which I think is quite important.

而其中最引起爭議的部分，就是記者們剛才質詢的，基本上是 Marco Rubio，關於以色列的角色，我認為這非常重要。

As your previous guest said, it's not necessarily the most, it's not necessarily the driver, but

正如你之前的來賓所說，這不一定是主要的，不一定是驅動因素，但是

it's certainly one of the two most important reasons behind the war, in a sense that, as Rob, you said, the timing had everything to do with Israel.

這絕對是戰爭背後最重要的兩個原因之一，從某種意義上說，正如 Rob 你說的，時機與以色列有很大的關係。

Israel wanted to launch the war as soon as it seemed that there was progress in the negotiations.

以色列希望在談判似乎有進展時，就盡快發動戰爭。

It wasn't because there was a breakdown in the negotiations in Geneva.

並不是因為在日內瓦的談判破裂了。

It was because there was a breakthrough in the negotiations in Geneva.

而是因為在日內瓦的談判取得了突破。

Israel decided to bomb Iran and the United States joined in.

以色列決定轟炸伊朗，美國也加入了。

I'm reminding myself of notes that I had made a couple days ago since this war started, that Israel has attacked three times during negotiations and twice Iran.

我提醒自己前幾天做的筆記，自從這場戰爭開始以來，以色列在談判期間攻擊了三次，伊朗則被攻擊了兩次。

Once they attacked Qatar here in Doha, as Qatar was actively mediating between the U.S. israel and Hamas.

他們攻擊卡達，就在多哈，當時卡達正積極地在美國、以色列和哈瑪斯之間進行調解。

And Israel attacked, and twice they attacked Iran during active negotiations.

以色列發動攻擊，而且他們在積極談判期間兩度攻擊伊朗。

And I would remind our viewers that the Omani foreign minister said just a few days ago, after the last round of.

我要提醒我們的觀眾，阿曼外交部長幾天前才說過，在上一次的。

Of indirect talks between the US and between the US And Iran, he said, actually

美國和伊朗之間的間接談判後，他說，其實

Iran is presenting a pathway that it would never, ever have a nuclear bomb.

伊朗提出了一條道路，表明他們絕不會擁有核彈。

And I think it was the very next day that the US Attacked.

我認為就在隔天，美國就發動了攻擊。

I'm curious for your opinion on this, is it looks if you're attacking active negotiations, that could lead to a deal not once, not twice, but

我很好奇你對這個的看法，看起來如果你攻擊正在進行的談判，這可能會導致一項協議，不是一次，不是兩次，而是

three times, that starts to begin looking like a pattern.

三次，這開始讓人覺得像是一種模式。

And the pattern, as I said, is the story.

而且正如我說的，這種模式就是敘事。

It's the confusion about manufacturing the case for war and the pattern of continuously undermining any potential for peace by launching a war.

這就是對製造戰爭理由的混淆，以及透過發動戰爭不斷破壞和平潛力的模式。

One of, I may add another that for me was a very major proof of that pattern, is when they attacked Iran to kill Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, right at the inauguration of what could have been and could still be one of the most moderate Iranian elected presidents, which is the present president today.

我還可以補充一點，對我來說，這是一個非常重要的該模式的證明，那就是他們攻擊伊朗，想殺死哈瑪斯領袖 Ismail Haniyeh，就在當時可能也是現在最溫和的伊朗民選總統之一就職的時候。

It was then that Israel decided to bomb Iran because they did not want a guy who showed up at the United nations right after his elections to say that we are ready to talk about everything, including the nuclear weapon, that we are ready for opening, that Israel, that Iran does not want to be isolated, that Iran wants to open and join the international community, that it's ready to get involved with the United States in talks.

就在那時候，以色列決定轟炸伊朗，因為他們不想要一個在當選後立刻到聯合國發言的人，說我們準備好談論一切，包括核武，我們準備好開放，以色列，伊朗不想被孤立，伊朗想要開放並加入國際社會，它準備好與美國展開談判。

就在那時候，以色列攻擊了伊朗。

And that's really the difference between the position of a small but powerful country in the Middle east called Israel, that continuously is insecure about its existence, about its illegality, about its own deck, if you will, in the region, and

這就是中東一個小但強大的國家以色列的立場，與美國的立場之間的真正差異。以色列不斷對自己的存在、自己的非法性、自己在該地區的地位感到不安全。

the United States, which is a world empire, which is the most important, the most powerful country in the world today.

美國是一個世界帝國，是當今世界上最重要、最強大的國家。

They don't have the same perception of security.

They don't have the same perception of insecurity.

They don't have the same perception of threat, and certainly they don't have the same understanding of Iran.

他們對威脅的認知不同，當然他們對伊朗的理解也不同。

For the United States, the idea that what was presented in Geneva not only resolves all the issues about the nuclear issue, but

對於美國來說，日內瓦提出的不僅能解決核問題的所有疑慮，

also apparently proposed to the United States 3 to $500 billion of investment in Iran's energy infrastructure.

還似乎向美國提出了對伊朗能源基礎設施 3 到 5000 億美元的投資。

對川普來說，這是一個重大的突破。

That's more important than Venezuela, Right.

For Israel, this is the alarm bell that this could lead to, to reconciliation, normalization, relationship between the United States and Washington, what so called, you know, the great deal between Iran and the United States that in Israel rings alarm bells.

對以色列來說，這是一個警訊，這可能導致美國和華盛頓之間的和解、正常化、關係，也就是所謂的，你知道的，伊朗和美國之間的大交易，這在以色列敲響了警鐘。

And hence Israel had to act to undermine any potential agreement, whether nuclear, economic or otherwise, between Iran and the United States.

是以，以色列必須採取行動，破壞伊朗與美國之間任何潛在的協議，無論是核協議、經濟協議還是其他協議。

Marwan Bashar, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, thank you very much.

半島電視臺資深政治分析師 Marwan Bashara，非常感謝您。

As ever, Marwan, don't miss out at the full picture.

Marwan，一如往常，別錯過全貌。

Subscribe to Al Jazeera for reliable news expert insight like Chef stay ahead.

訂閱半島電視臺，獲取可靠的新聞和專家見解，隨時掌握最新動態。