Name: 費德觀點：美國民主黨該從日、英學到的教訓！ (Fareed’s Take: The lesson Dems should learn from Japan and UK)
Uploaded: 2026-02-15T22:03:45.000Z
Duration: 5 min 30 s

What do two striking political facts tell us about the mood of the world today?

兩個引人注目的政治事實，能告訴我們現在全世界的心情是什麼呢？

In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has just won the largest parliamentary majority in the history of the long dominant Liberal Democratic Party.

在日本，首相高市早苗剛剛贏得了長期執政的自由民主黨史上最大的國會多數席次。

In Britain, Keir Starmer, who swept into office a year and a half ago, has sunk to the lowest popularity ratings ever recorded for a British Prime Minister.

在英國，一年半前風光上任的 Keir Starmer，支持率卻創下了英國首相歷來最低紀錄。

On the surface, the stories seem unrelated.

表面上看，這兩件事似乎沒有關聯。

One leader rides a landslide, another struggles to stay afloat.

一位領導人贏得壓倒性勝利，另一位卻掙扎求生。

But taken together, they reveal something deeper about the current political moment.

但把這兩件事放在一起看，就能揭示當前政治時刻更深層的意義。

After the tumultuous premierships of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, years marked by Brexit aftershocks, ethics scandals, fiscal panic and revolving door leadership, Starmer offered something different.

在經歷了 Boris Johnson、Liz Truss 和 Rishi Sunak 動盪不安的首相任期，以及英國脫歐後遺症、道德醜聞、財政恐慌和頻繁更迭的領導層等多年動盪後，Starmer 提供了不一樣的選擇。

He was the keep calm and carry on candidate.

他是一位「保持冷靜，繼續前進」的候選人。

He promised seriousness, stability and competence.

He would rebuild institutions, appoint capable ministers and restore Britain's standing abroad.

他會重建機構，任命有能力的部長，並恢復英國在海外的地位。

He would handle America's volatile politics with quiet firmness.

他會以沉著的決心處理美國動盪的政治。

No drama, no ideological fireworks, no just adult supervision.

沒有戲劇性，沒有意識形態的煙火，只有成人的監督。

And by conventional measures, he delivered.

而且，從傳統的標準來看，他做到了。

Markets stabilized, Cabinet government returned.

市場穩定下來，內閣政府也回來了。

然而，民眾的情緒並沒有跟著走。

Within months, Starmer's net favorability ratings plunged into deeply negative territory.

幾個月內，施泰爾默的淨好感度評分就跌到了非常負面的區域。

The promise of seasoned competence took a blow when one of Labour's most prominent figures, P.

當工黨最知名的代表人物之一 P.

Peter Mendelssohn, long seen as the ultimate insider, faced renewed scrutiny over his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

彼得·門德爾松，長期以來被視為終極內部人士，因其過去與傑弗裡·愛潑斯坦的關係而面臨新的審查，這對經驗豐富的能力承諾造成了打擊。

For many voters, that episode reinforced a suspicion that restoration meant the return of the same interconnected elites they had already rejected.

對許多選民來說，這件事加深了一種懷疑，認為復舊意味著他們已經拒絕的同一批相互關聯的精英的歸來。

The deeper problem for Britain is structural.

Immigration has been the rocket fuel of populism across the West.

移民一直是西方民粹主義的助燃劑。

Britain recorded net migration of nearly 950,000 in the year ending in March 2023, an astonishing figure for a country that had voted for Brexit partly to take back control of its borders.

在截至 2023 年 3 月的一年中，英國的淨移民人數接近 95 萬，對於一個部分因為要重新掌控邊境而投票支持英國脫歐的國家來說，這個數字令人震驚。

Cosmopolitan elites appeared in many voters eyes to have mismanaged the issue.

在許多選民眼中，國際化的精英們似乎在這個問題上處理不當。

那種被背叛的感覺並沒有消退。

Add to that Europe's long flirtation with austerity.

再加上歐洲長期以來對緊縮政策的曖昧態度。

After the 2008 financial crisis, Britain, like much of Europe, embraced fiscal restraint.

2008 年金融危機後，英國和歐洲大部分地區一樣，都採取了財政緊縮政策。

Spending was squeezed, public investments cut and real wages stagnated for much of a decade.

在將近十年的時間裡，支出被削減，公共投資被刪減，實質薪資停滯不前。

GDP per capita lagged far behind the US which opted for much larger stimulus packages during the recession.

美國在衰退期間選擇了規模大得多的刺激方案，而英國的人均 GDP 遠遠落後。

The result was a slow burn malaise that eroded trust in the political class.

結果是緩慢燃燒的沉悶感，侵蝕了對政治階層的信任。

Takaichi ran not on managerial calm, but on confrontation.

高市並非以管理上的冷靜取勝，而是以對抗姿態參選。

She spoke in fiery tones about immigration.

她以激昂的語氣談論移民問題。

Even though Japan's foreign born population hovers around 3%, a fraction of Britain's, she warned of cultural erosion and social strain, she took a harder rhetorical line on China.

儘管日本的海外出生人口徘徊在 3% 左右，僅是英國的一小部分，但她警告文化侵蝕和社會壓力，她對中國採取了更強硬的言辭。

She promised disruption in economic policy.

After decades of cautious incrementalism, the electorate rewarded her with the largest majority the LDP has ever received.

在數十年謹慎的漸進主義之後，選民們給予了她回報，自由民主黨獲得了前所未有的最大多數席次。

其中一部分吸引力在於象徵意義。

Japan remains, by global standards, a patriarchal society.

以全球標準來看，日本仍是個父權社會。

A woman leading the government is itself a rupture.

由女性領導政府本身就是一種突破。

The image signals change, even if the party machinery beneath remains intact.

這個形象傳達了改變的訊息，即使底層的黨務機器依然如故。

In an era hungry for novelty, symbolism carries power.

在這個渴望新意的時代，象徵意義蘊含著力量。

There are real differences between Britain and Japan.

英國和日本之間確實存在實質的差異。

Japan never experienced immigration on the scale that destabilized Western politics, nor did it embrace austerity in the European style.

日本從未經歷過像西方國家那樣大規模、破壞穩定的移民潮，也沒有接受過歐洲式的緊縮政策。

It did suffer from economic stagnation in recent decades.

不過，日本確實經歷了近幾十年的經濟停滯。

the causes and effects were different from the austerity induced stagnation that fueled Western anger.

其原因和影響與引發西方憤怒的緊縮政策所造成的停滯不同。

These structural contrasts matter, but they may matter less today than atmosphere.

這些結構性的差異確實存在，但今天它們的重要性可能不如氣氛來得大。

Across advanced democracies, incumbents struggled at unusually high rates in 2024, a big year for global elections.

在已開發國家民主體制中，現任者在2024年經歷了異常高的挑戰，這是全球選舉的大年。

They are less interested in policy detail than in emotional validation.

他們對政策細節的興趣不大，反而更在意情感上的認同。

Japan's prime minister has shifted the vibe.

Despite her party's longtime dominance, she projects motion, disruption and defiance.

儘管她的黨長期佔據主導地位，但她展現出行動力、顛覆性和反抗精神。

施特默則展現出穩定和修復的形象。

In calmer times, that contrast might favor Britain.

在比較平靜的時期，這種對比或許對英國有利。

The appetite for rupture may fade once its costs become clear.

一旦分裂的代價變得清楚，人們對分裂的渴望可能會消退。

But for now, in countries as different as Britain and Japan, the mood is unmistakable.

但就目前而言，無論是在英國還是日本這樣不同的國家，這種情緒都很明顯。

In an age of anxiety, voters prefer rebellion to restoration.

在這個焦慮的時代，選民寧願選擇反叛也不要復舊。

As the Democrats look forward to the midterms, they should keep this in mind.

民主黨在展望期中選舉時，應該記住這一點。

Go to fareedzakhariya.com for a link to my Washington Post column this week.

請到 fareedzakhariya.com 連結，閱讀我本週的《華盛頓郵報》專欄。