Name: 內特-西爾弗：成功的冒險者都有這 3 個特徵 | Big Think+ (Nate Silver: Successful risk-takers share these 3 traits | Big Think+)
Uploaded: 2025-09-03T17:53:54.000Z
Duration: 5 min 8 s

The River is my name for this community of like-minded people that I kept encountering over and over again in competitive domains.

在競爭激烈的領域中，我不斷遇到志同道合的人，"大河 "就是我對這個群體的稱呼。

分詞構句

Las Vegas, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, they are very risk-taking, they can be contrarian, they can be difficult, and very high variance, I would call it, meaning it can lead to both tremendous success and a huge amount of failure.

拉斯維加斯、華爾街、硅谷，它們都非常冒險，可能是逆向的，可能是困難的，我稱之為 "高變異性"，這意味著它們既可能導致巨大的成功，也可能導致大量的失敗。

轉承詞

Because most time you think of somebody, oh they're quantitative and analytical, you might think, oh they're like a actuary or an accountant, right?

因為在大多數情況下，你會認為某個人是定量分析型的，你可能會認為他是精算師或會計師，對嗎？

They're very calculating and cautious, right?

他們很有心計，也很謹慎，對吧？

And some people have that, but when you instead cross that with using that to compete, you get the sport dynamic, we're very in personality.

有些人有這樣的能力，但當你把這種能力與競爭結合起來時，你就會得到運動的動力，我們非常有個性。

So I talked to around 200 people for On The Edge, people who are domain experts, people who are practitioners, who take risks themselves in different fields.

是以，我為 "On The Edge "項目與大約 200 人進行了交談，這些人有領域專家，有實踐者，也有在不同領域承擔風險的人。

I identified 13 common habits, I'm gonna distill down to just a few of my favorites.

我發現了 13 種常見的習慣，下面我將提煉出我最喜歡的幾種。

My name is Nate Silver, I'm various things, a statistician, a poker player, and an author.

我叫內特-西爾弗，有多種身份，統計學家、撲克玩家和作家。

Most recently of On The Edge, the art of risking everything.

最近的作品是《邊緣》（On The Edge），這是一門冒險的藝術。

So a lot of people in the river are contrarian, they kind of have to be by design.

所以，江湖上很多人都是逆來順受的，這也是他們的本意。

In Silicon Valley, you're making an investment in a category or a company that has not succeeded yet, and that maybe is dismissed by the rest of the marketplace, at least in public markets.

在硅谷，你投資的是一個尚未取得成功的類別或公司，至少在公開市場上，它可能被其他市場所忽視。

What I say is that you want to be a conscientious contrarian, which means it's okay to deviate from the consensus, but most the time the wisdom of crowds is pretty smart, so like the markets are hard to beat because it's the consensus of lots of smart people on Wall Street and lots of smart modelers.

我說的是，你要做一個有良知的逆向思維者，這意味著偏離共識是可以的，但大多數時候，民眾的智慧是非常聰明的，所以市場很難被打敗，因為這是華爾街很多聰明人和很多聰明的建模者的共識。

And so when do you have robust evidence for a particular direction?

那麼，什麼時候你能為某個方向提供有力的證據呢？

That's kind of like part art and part science.

You're not relying on any one model, any one faction politically, any one philosophy, because people are error-prone, right?

你不依賴於任何一種模式、任何一個政治派別、任何一種哲學，因為人是容易出錯的，對嗎？

And one thing you learn if you're betting sports, for example, is that you want multiple pieces of evidence to line up the same way.

例如，如果你投注體育比賽，你會學到一件事，那就是你需要多個證據以相同的方式排列在一起。

If you have two models, you average is better than one model.

如果有兩個模型，平均值就會比一個模型好。

That's what makes things robust is when you have multiple indicators where they all flash in the same direction.

當你有多個指標時，它們都朝同一個方向閃爍，這樣才會讓事情變得穩健。

Another habit of good risk takers is that they're good estimators and good at working with incomplete information.

優秀風險承擔者的另一個習慣是，他們善於估計，善於利用不完整的資訊。

The world moves pretty fast these days, and having a pretty good estimate quickly is often better than having a perfect estimate more slowly, right?

如今的世界發展很快，快速做出一個相當不錯的估計往往比慢慢做出一個完美的估計要好得多，不是嗎？

If you're dealing with things like markets, any competitive system, a small business that you're running, you want to be first to market, or early to market at least, and that means that you can't wait for all the data to show up.

如果你面對的是像市場、任何競爭系統、你正在經營的小企業這樣的東西，你就想率先進入市場，或者至少提前進入市場，這意味著你不能等待所有的數據出現。

You have to know where the most reliable data points are early on, and take real risk based on your estimation skills.

你必須儘早知道最可靠的數據點在哪裡，並根據自己的估算能力承擔真正的風險。

You ultimately do have to quantify your decisions to be able to make calculations.

你最終必須量化你的決定，以便能夠進行計算。

It kind of comes second nature if you're a poker player.

如果你是一名撲克玩家，這就是你的第二天性。

If you face a big bet, and the bet's for 200 bucks, right?

如果你面對一個大賭注，賭注是 200 美元，對嗎？

And there's 200 bucks already in the pot, that means you have to win the pot one-third of the time, 33% of the time.

彩池裡已經有 200 塊錢了，這意味著你必須在三分之一的時間裡贏得彩池，也就是 33% 的時間裡。

If you think you're going to win 34% of the time, you're supposed to call, 32% you're supposed to fold.

如果你認為你有 34% 的機會贏，你就應該跟注，32% 的機會你就應該棄牌。

Well, you have a lot of frickin' practice, because poker players play thousands and thousands of hands, but it's a very necessary skill to be explicit about this kind of thing, even if it's back of the envelope to get there, right?

好吧，你有很多該死的練習，因為撲克玩家玩了成千上萬手牌，但明確這種事情是一項非常必要的技能，即使是在信封后面達到目的，對嗎？

The output nonetheless has to be a number, and you have to make a decision based on that number.

但輸出必須是一個數字，你必須根據這個數字做出決定。

One of my favorite aphorisms is take a raise or fold attitude toward life.

我最喜歡的一句箴言是：對生活採取加薪或折腰的態度。

So, look, you have three choices in poker.

所以，聽著，在撲克中你有三種選擇。

People who have never played poker before, all they ever do is call.

從未玩過撲克的人，只會跟注。

他們打電話，打電話，打電話。

They're very passive, not taking control of the hand.

If you ask a computer, it will say most time you want to either be raising or folding, right?

如果你問電腦，它會說大多數情況下你要麼加註，要麼棄牌，對嗎？

You want to take an aggressive action or quit.

你要麼採取積極行動，要麼放棄。

I think this is a great metaphor for lots of things in real life too.

我覺得這也是對現實生活中很多事情的一個很好的比喻。

Annie Duke, a former poker player who now studies decision making and writes as an author for a living, wrote a book called Quit, which has lots of evidence about how people are actually happier a lot of times when they quit.

安妮-杜克（Annie Duke）曾是一名撲克牌手，現在以研究決策和寫作為生，她寫了一本名為《放棄》（Quit）的書，書中有大量證據表明，人們在很多時候放棄時其實更快樂。

They quit an unhappy relationship or a job that's not working out, or they move cities, right?

他們會放棄一段不愉快的感情，或者一份不順心的工作，或者搬家，對嗎？

That allows you to preserve your capital, your decision-making power, your optionality, giving yourself what may turn out to be fruitful or good decisions later on when you have more information to work with.

這樣，你就能保住自己的資本、決策權和選擇權，讓自己在日後掌握更多資訊時，做出可能富有成效或正確的決定。

The world is a pretty intrinsically challenging and uncertain place, and that's kind of why the people, the countries, the companies that will survive are people that are comfortable in uncertain environments.

這個世界本質上就是一個充滿挑戰和不確定性的地方，這也是為什麼那些能夠在不確定環境中生存下來的人，那些能夠生存下來的國家，那些能夠生存下來的公司的原因。

People are often uncomfortable with that kind of uncertainty.

人們往往對這種不確定性感到不安。

And so people are seeking out safety, given how complex and how confusing, admittedly, the kind of environment can be, when I think that might be a mistake, actually.

是以，人們都在尋求安全，考慮到環境的複雜性和迷惑性，我認為這可能是一個錯誤。

If you are privileged enough to fail and then get back on your feet several times, then that's a reason to take more risk.

如果你有幸多次失敗後又重新站起來，那麼這就是你冒更大風險的理由。

To learn even more from the world's biggest thinkers, get Big Think Plus for your business.

要想從世界上最偉大的思想家那裡學到更多，請為您的企業獲取 Big Think Plus。