Name: How come BRICS isn’t falling apart? | DW News
Uploaded: 2026-03-31T23:17:09.000Z
Duration: 10 min 30 s
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It's a scenario that no group wants to face: one member attacking another.

沒有任何一個組織希望遇到這種情況：成員之間互相攻擊。

That's true whether your group is a bunch of friends in the pub or an international organization.

無論是酒吧裡的一群朋友，還是國際組織，情況都是如此。

情態副詞

We're looking at BRICS, a group of ten mostly emerging nations plus Saudi Arabia, which, while not yet a formal member, actively participates in many BRICS activities.

我們現在看到的是 BRICS，一個由十個主要是新興國家組成的集團，再加上沙烏地阿拉伯，雖然它還不是正式成員，但積極參與了許多 BRICS 的活動。

The group represents nearly half the world's population.

這個集團代表了全球近一半的人口。

BRICS has survived tensions between members before, like the India-China border dispute in 2020.

BRICS 過去曾經歷過成員國之間的緊張關係，像是 2020 年的印中邊界爭議。

This year, since being attacked by the U.S.

and Israel, Iran has hit countries in the region which host U.S.

和以色列，伊朗已經攻擊了該地區接待美軍的國家

military, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

包括阿拉伯聯合大公國和沙烏地阿拉伯。

The problem for BRICS: Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are all members, or effective members.

BRICS 面臨的問題是：伊朗、阿聯酋和沙烏地阿拉伯都是成員國，或實質上的成員國。

How much of a crisis is this, and what can BRICS do about it?

這場危機有多嚴重？BRICS 又該如何應對？

To talk this through, I got in touch with Michaela Pappa, who heads the BRICS unit at the MIT Center for International Studies.

為了深入探討這個問題，我聯繫了 MIT 國際研究中心 BRICS 單位的主管 Michaela Pappa。

So the BRICS group recently expanded to include both Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

所以 BRICS 集團最近擴大了，納入了伊朗和阿拉伯聯合大公國。

And actually, right now, there is a situation where these two are in conflict, so it's very difficult for the group to make expansion work and be productive if two of its members are in conflict.

而且事實上，現在出現了這樣一個情況，這兩個國家正在衝突中，所以如果兩個成員國發生衝突，這個集團要如何順利擴張並保持生產力，就變得非常困難。

The way BRICS is coping is actually to avoid an internal split, to be ambiguous and delay,

BRICS 的應對方式其實是避免內部意見分裂，保持模糊和拖延，

and basically to have countries agree to disagree.

基本上就是讓各國同意求同存異。

So one thing that we have seen in June, when Israel attacked Iran, BRICS had a joint statement that that was against international law.

所以我們在六月看到的一件事是，當以色列攻擊伊朗時，BRICS 發布了一份聯合聲明，表示這違反了國際法。

But now it's a much different situation because we are looking at internal breakdown, not just external as it was the case before.

但現在情況大不相同了，因為我們看到的是內部瓦解，而不僅僅是像之前那樣的外部問題。

So now what you see is this shuttle diplomacy happening and quiet, like the chair, the BRICS chair, talking to individual parties rather than making some grand statements for the whole group level.

所以現在你看到的是這種穿梭外交正在進行，而且是悄悄地進行，像是 BRICS 主席國在個別與各方溝通，而不是為整個集團層級發表什麼宏大的聲明。

Because for BRICS to come out with a joint statement, everybody needs to sign.

因為 BRICS 要發表聯合聲明，就必須要所有人都簽字同意。

And it's very difficult to come up with a joint statement that at this point both Iran and UAE would sign.

而且現在要讓伊朗和阿聯酋都簽字同意一份聯合聲明，真的非常困難。

So what we are going to see is much more shuttle diplomacy, much more secret mediation efforts.

所以接下來我們會看到更多穿梭外交，更多祕密的調解努力。

And so a lot of what's happening is not really out in the open and very difficult to assess.

是以，很多事情都不是公開進行的，也很難評估。

But here, BRICS will need to first figure out what to do in terms of can it continue working normally, in the sense can the agendas continue as they are.

但是在這裡，BRICS 首先需要弄清楚該怎麼做，也就是它能否正常運作，能否繼續推動現有的議程。

Then it will need to see whether it can mediate.

然後它需要看看自己是否能夠進行調解。

And then finally, the question is, all of them need to come to the summit eventually.

最後，問題是，所有成員國最終都需要參加峰會。

On an operational basis, we could look at it as a summitary body, which means that it has one big summit that creates a leaders' declaration that has all of the different directions for the group.

在運作層面上，我們可以將其視為一個峰會體制，這意味著它有一個大型峰會，會產生一份領導人宣言，為整個集團設定各種方向。

each year there is one chair, so one BRICS country would chair the BRICS for the year,

而且每年會有一個主席國，也就是一個 BRICS 國家會擔任該年度的主席國，

And then throughout the year, the country actually organizes a lot of meetings, up to 200, 300 even meetings.

接著，在整年中，這個國家其實會組織很多會議，多達兩三百場。

And BRICS operates across over 180 mechanisms.

BRICS 透過超過 180 個機制在運作。

So there are different working groups for all sorts.

所以有很多不同種類的工作小組。

but also there is BRICS fashion, there is BRICS media, so a whole range of issues, from political security, sustainable development.

也有 BRICS 時尚、BRICS 媒體，所以涵蓋了從政治安全到永續發展的各種議題。

There is a counterterrorism group, for example.

So a lot of different strategic plans, some frameworks, like framework for AI governance.

所以有很多不同的戰略計畫，有些框架，像是 AI 治理框架。

So the group produces a lot, and it's a very active space, not only working among governments.

這個組織產出了很多東西，而且它是一個非常活躍的領域，不只是政府之間的運作。

So it's not only intergovernmental, but it also involves collaboration across BRICS businesses, across civil society, think tanks.

所以不只是政府間的合作，也包含 BRICS 企業、公民社會、智庫之間的合作。

So the very wide range of collaborations.

So BRICS has been in a similar situation before.

所以 BRICS 以前也遇過類似的情況。

So BRICS had a situation with India and China and the border dispute.

所以 BRICS 之前跟印度和中國有過邊境爭議的情況。

One thing that we have seen when India and China were going through a very difficult time and their border dispute is that actually the fact that they needed to come both to the summit was beneficial for, in a way, mitigating the negative aspects of their conflict.

我們看到，當印度和中國經歷一段非常艱難的時期，以及他們的邊境爭議時，事實上，他們需要一起參加峰會，這在某種程度上，對減緩他們衝突的負面影響是有益的。

And it's not that conflict went away, but the summit had a positive influence on bringing them together.

衝突並沒有消失，但峰會對讓他們聚在一起產生了正面影響。

So in a way, they found a way to compartmentalize and pretend the BRICS is like the UN, so you still have warring parties come to the UN General Assembly, despite the fact that they cannot that they have issues between them,

所以，在某種程度上，他們找到了一種方法來區分，並把 BRICS 想像成聯合國，就像即使有衝突的國家，也會參加聯合國大會一樣，儘管他們之間有問題，

but they find it in themselves to come to the UN General Assembly and focus on other areas where they can actually reach agreement.

但他們還是會設法參加聯合國大會，並專注於其他可以達成共識的領域。

So we can think about it as more like islands of disagreement and islands of agreement.

所以我們可以把它想像成，有「意見不合的島嶼」和「達成共識的島嶼」。

So formally, India is in charge in the sense these bodies are very procedural, which means that if India is chair, India is the one setting the agenda, defining priorities.

所以正式來說，印度是負責的，因為這些機構非常程序化，這意味著如果印度是主席國，印度就是設定議程、定義優先事項的人。

But then at the same time, you need buy-in from other members to actually move forward on these priorities.

但同時，你也需要其他成員的認同，才能在這些優先事項上真正推進。

China has always played an informally powerful state role,

中國一直扮演著非正式的強國角色，

but it has not been really exercising its power over countries in a way that really directly affected outcomes from a visible perspective.

但從可見的角度來看，中國並沒有真正行使對各國的權力，以直接影響結果。

So for example, China wanted expansions, BRICS expansion, since 2017,

所以，例如，中國自 2017 年起就希望擴張，也就是 BRICS 的擴張，

and it took China good six years, seven years to get it properly on the agenda.

中國花了整整六年、七年的時間才將其正式列入議程。

Or China really wanted a BRICS free trade agreement.

或者中國真的想要一個 BRICS 自由貿易協定。

Since 2011, there were proposals, and it still doesn't have a major trade zone within BRICS.

自 2011 年以來，一直有相關提案，但 BRICS 內部至今仍未建立大型貿易區。

So the fact that China is powerful, it does attract the China's power, attracts other members,

所以，中國的強大確實吸引了其他成員，

but it does not necessarily mean that China can have its own way or that China's preferred agendas actually get implemented and taken up immediately.

但這並不一定意味著中國就能為所欲為，或者中國偏好的議程就能立即被實施和採納。

I mean, if BRICS was set up as an alliance, that would have been a problem,

我的意思是，如果 BRICS 是以聯盟的形式設立，那就會是個問題，

but I don't see that it's a problem given that BRICS was never meant to be a security alliance.

但考量到 BRICS 從來就不是要成立安全聯盟，我認為這不成問題。

So it's almost like saying, why does World Health Organization not intervene in the situation?

所以這幾乎就像在問，為什麼世界衛生組織不介入這個情況？

Because it's not its mandate in the first place.

因為這本來就不是它的職責範圍。

I think one area that's really challenging is that these countries, China, for example, always says that it wants a development-focused international system and that emphasis is on South-South technical cooperation.

我覺得一個很具挑戰性的地方是，這些國家，像是中國，總是說它想要一個以發展為導向的國際體系，並且強調南南技術合作。

But this really pushes the boundary in the sense of how can you really isolate security that's straight in your face in terms of the problems, in terms of your own concerns, energy concerns, and

但這真的有點挑戰極限，因為你怎麼能真正隔離那些擺在你面前的、關於能源問題、你自身關切的問題，

how can you keep it like it's not happening?

而且你怎麼能假裝這些事情沒發生？

Because in reality, both with India-China conflict, within BRICS, the idea is that you can compartmentalize,

因為實際上，即使有印度和中國的衝突，在 BRICS 裡，大家認為是可以劃分開來的，

but you may not be able to compartmentalize and pretend it's business as usual if this is the situation.

但如果情況是這樣，你可能無法劃分開來，然後假裝一切如常。

So especially when you have a group that depends on consensus.

所以，特別是當你面對一個依賴共識的團體時。

So what we might see now is more of a coalition of some BRICS members might move faster on some agenda items if there is more deadlock.

所以我們現在可能會看到，如果出現更多僵局，一些 BRICS 成員國組成的聯盟可能會在某些議程項目上 moves faster。

But the core of the group decision-making principle has always been consensus.

但這個團體決策的核心原則一直以來都是共識。

So now the group really runs into problems because the idea of the group was that countries do not cross each other's red lines and that you always keep consensus.

所以現在這個團體真的遇到問題了，因為這個團體的想法是，國家之間不要互相跨越紅線，而且要永遠維持共識。

They will need to keep doing continuing cooperation across many issues just so that they stay resilient, rather than there were talks before about streamlining cooperation and cutting down mechanisms.

他們需要持續在許多議題上進行合作，才能保持韌性，而不是像之前討論的那樣，要精簡合作並減少機制。

Right now, for them to be more resilient, they need to keep different mechanisms in place.

目前來說，為了讓他們更有韌性，需要保留各種不同的機制。

The second thing, they have never really enacted any conflict resolution mechanism,

第二點是，他們從來沒有真正實施過任何衝突解決機制，

but it might make sense for them to develop a conflict resolution mechanism because we're not only talking about India-China, we're also talking not only about Iran and UAE at this point,

但現在發展一個衝突解決機制或許是個好主意，因為我們不只談到印度和中國，也不只談到伊朗和阿聯酋，

So having a way of managing some contentious issues that arise internally, almost like an internal conflict resolution system, that might be helpful.

所以，有一個處理內部出現的爭議性議題的方式，就像一個內部的衝突解決系統，可能會很有幫助。

I have not seen as much appetite to develop that before,

我以前沒看到大家有這麼大的意願去發展這個，

but now there has been a lot of talk about potentially investing in a secretariat or potentially trying to build up institutional knowledge and institutional learning.

但現在有很多討論，關於可能設立祕書處，或是試圖建立制度化的知識和學習。

And the ability to have a professional mediation service within BRICS would be something that would help them move forward.

而BRICS內部若能有專業的調解服務，將有助於他們往前邁進。

Right now, there are these Sherpas who are facilitating inner BRICS meetings,

目前有這些「協商代表」在協助BRICS內部會議，

but these Sherpas could be also used in another way to facilitate discussions when conflicts arise.

但這些協商代表也可以用另一種方式，來協助處理衝突發生時的討論。