Name: 2026年德國汽車產業會是什麼樣貌？ | DW 新聞 (How will 2026 look like for Germany's automotive industry? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-19T17:07:57.000Z
Duration: 11 min 17 s

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創下 2009 年以來最差的 profits。

現在進行式

Germany's economy is driving off a cliff.

德國的 economy 正在懸崖式下跌。

Okay, that last one was really specific, but

好的，最後一句話說得有點太具體了，但

these are the headlines you see right now when discussing the big German automakers.

這些就是大家現在在討論德國大牌 automakers 時會看到的標題。

Once the darling of German industry and a massive boon to the country's economy, today the sector seems to have been left in the dust.

曾經是德國 industry 的寵兒，也為國家的 economy 帶來巨大助益，但如今這個 sector 似乎被遠遠甩在後頭了。

Can German carmakers finally get their act together and return to producing affordable vehicles that people actually want to?

德國的 carmakers 到底能不能振作起來，重新製造出大家真的想買的 affordable vehicles 呢？

Lets take a look at how bad the recent data is, starting with the iconic maker of Das Auto.

我們就來看看最近的數據有多慘，先從那個 iconic maker of Das Auto 開始。

The latest figures show that the Volkswagen Group saw profits almost halved last year, from 12.4 billion euros in 2024 to 6.9 billion euros in 2025.

最新的數據顯示，Volkswagen Group 去年的 profits 幾乎腰斬，從 2024 年的 124 億 euros 降到 2025 年的 69 億 euros。

And that has been the story for years, with 2025 VW profits now hovering around the same level as 2016, despite inflation and a growing auto market.

這幾年來情況一直都是這樣，儘管有 inflation 和不斷成長的 auto market，2025 年 VW 的 profits 現在大約跟 2016 年差不多。

整體來說，另一個令人沮喪的 spot 是 Mercedes。

In 2025, profits fell by 49% to 5.3 billion euros.

2025 年，profits 下降了 49%，來到 53 億 euros。

And when German automakers suffer, it affects the entire German economy.

而當德國的 automakers 遇到困難時，就會影響到整個德國的 economy。

Manufacturing makes up 19.7% of the gross domestic product in Germany.

Manufacturing 佔了德國 gross domestic product 的 19.7%。

That's more than in both France and in the us and the largest part of that sector, cars.

這比法國和美國加起來還要多，而這個 sector 中最大的部分就是 cars。

While manufacturing saw a turnover of 2.9 trillion euros in 2024, within that, it was cars that led the way with a turnover of 476 billion euros.

2024 年 manufacturing 的 turnover 是 2.9 兆 euros，其中 cars 的 turnover 達到了 4760 億 euros，居於領先地位。

So even though the sector has seen a hit to profits recently, it's still a major player in the German economy.

所以即使這個 sector 最近 profits 受到了影響，它仍然是德國 economy 的一個 major player。

那麼，我們是怎麼走到這一步的呢？

I put that to DW business colleague Stephen Beardsley, who has been covering the German auto sector for a long time.

我把這個問題問了 DW 的商業同事 Stephen Beardsley，他長期關注德國汽車業。

We've really noticed since the pandemic how difficult things have gotten for German automakers.

自從疫情以來，我們真的注意到德國汽車製造商的日子越來越難過。

And there are a number of reasons for this, but really China is number one.

這有很多原因，但中國絕對是第一名。

And that's because China plays such a significant role in the sales and revenue of the big German carmakers.

這是因為中國在這些德國大型汽車製造商的銷售和營收方面扮演著非常重要的角色。

During the good times, it was gangbusters, right?

在景氣好的時候，簡直是日進鬥金，對吧？

If you were a Volkswagen in the volume segment, if you were Porsche in the luxury segment, all of these did well during the good years.

如果你是做大眾市場的 Volkswagen，或是做豪華市場的 Porsche，這些在好幾年裡都表現得很不錯。

But then you saw that things turned sour during the bad years.

但接著你看到，在不景氣的時候，情況就變糟了。

For one, a property bubble burst in China.

其中一個原因是中國的房地產保麗龍破裂。

We saw that unemployment was rising after the pandemic and we saw that consumers were generally not willing to spend.

我們看到疫情後失業率上升，而且消費者普遍不太願意花錢。

On top of this, you had a kind of electric vehicle industry that was really coming into its own in China.

此外，中國的電動車產業也蓬勃發展起來。

And 2021 was really the year when it burst forth and really started to challenge the established electric carmakers, none of which by the way, were German.

而 2021 年，這個產業更是大爆發，開始挑戰那些不是德國的現有電動車製造商。

So German carmakers betted all on Red China, that is, and lost big.

所以德國的汽車製造商押注中國，結果大輸。

But wait, Steven said something important there.

This is such a big part of the story here.

這也是故事中很重要的一部分。

For years, German carmakers were slow to adapt and found it difficult to estimate how quickly to transition to electric products.

很多年來，德國汽車製造商的轉型速度很慢，而且很難估計要多快才能轉向電動產品。

And honestly, a lot of Chinese EVs are just cool, positioning themselves as more innovative and tech focused, which increases the appeal of Chinese cars in general.

而且說實話，很多中國的電動車真的很酷，它們把自己定位成更具創新性和科技感，這也增加了中國汽車的整體吸引力。

And it's not just EVs that are eating up global market share.

而且不只是電動車正在搶佔全球市場的份額。

China is exporting more and more cars of all kinds every year, sending combustion engine vehicles to countries where U.S.

中國每年都在出口越來越多的各種汽車，將燃油車銷往美國。

and European automakers once faced less competition.

和歐洲的汽車製造商曾經競爭較少的國家。

So multiple things are happening at once.

There are fewer customers for German cars in China because of the state of the post pandemic Chinese economy.

由於後疫情時代中國經濟的狀況，中國的德國汽車客戶越來越少。

And the German attempts at EVs aren't as appealing to customers, while Chinese carmakers are selling more and more cars to their own customers and abroad.

而且德國在電動車方面的嘗試對客戶的吸引力不大，而中國的汽車製造商則賣給自己客戶和國外的汽車越來越多。

In fact, if you look at the Global Sales Top 10 list, yes, VW was near the top.

事實上，如果你看看全球銷量前十名榜單，是的，福斯汽車名列前茅。

Meanwhile, China has three companies on that same top 10 list.

同時，中國有三家公司也進入了同一個前十名榜單。

Speaking of VW, let's zoom in a bit on that brand.

說到福斯汽車，讓我們稍微聚焦一下這個品牌。

In 2025, the VW Group's problem child was Porsche.

到了 2025 年，福斯汽車集團的問題兒童是 Porsche。

According to the Porsche Workers Council, the company's decision late last year to extend its production running times for combustion engine models accounted for a one off financial hit of billion euros.

根據 Porsche 員工委員會的說法，公司去年底決定延長燃油車款的生產時間，這讓他們一次性損失了數十億歐元。

Basically, this reversal on a previous commitment to electric vehicles cost them big, big money.

基本上，這個推翻先前對電動車承諾的決定，讓他們付出了慘痛的代價。

US tariffs also hit the luxury carmaker with lost revenues potentially as high as 3 billion euros.

美國的關稅也讓這家豪華汽車製造商損失了高達 30 億歐元的收入。

Tariffs in general have been a tricky web for German carmakers to deal with after investments abroad were essentially punished.

總體來說，關稅一直是德國汽車製造商難以應對的難題，因為他們在海外的投資基本上受到了懲罰。

以 BMW 和福斯汽車在墨西哥的工廠為例。

Those were designed to primarily make cars for the US market.

這些工廠原本主要是為了供應美國市場的汽車。

But erratic and surprising tariffs from the Trump 2.0 admin administration have meant losses like those that we saw with Porsche.

但川普 2.0 政府那些突兀且令人意外的關稅，導致了像 Porsche 那樣的損失。

從墨西哥到美國，再到出口到這裡。

Plans to nearshore their production to Mexico as opposed to producing a vehicle in Germany, then shipping it to the US have seem to backfire for the car industry, especially since they sell high value goods.

汽車產業計畫將生產線移往墨西哥，而不是在德國生產汽車再運往美國，這個策略似乎事與願違，尤其是因為他們賣的是高價商品。

So any tariff that has a significant value, right, 10%, 15%, 20% of what we're talking or whatever might come out.

所以任何有顯著價值的關稅，像是 10%、15%、20% 或其他可能出現的稅率。

So that means manufacturers, if they want to play a role in the very important American car market, then they need to localize.

所以這意味著，如果 makers 想在非常重要的美國 car market 佔有一席之地，他們就必須在地化生產。

And some German companies, they do already have a large part of their product network.

而有些 German companies，他們已經有很大一部分的 product network。

They're situated in the US especially SUVs or for larger vehicles.

他們設點在美國，特別是 SUV 或較大型的 vehicles。

But for others who are not there yet, or who moved to Mexico, for instance, so that the politics of the current US administration will require an adaptation of their plans.

但對於還沒這麼做，或是像搬到墨西哥的那些公司來說，美國現任政府的政治考量，會要求他們調整計畫。

Remember earlier when we were talking about 2025 profits?

還記得我們之前聊到 2025 年的 profits 嗎？

Well, there are two German brands I didn't mention that are actually bright spots for the industry, or at least British.

嗯，有兩個德國品牌我沒提到，它們其實是這個 industry 的亮點，或者至少是英國那邊的亮點。

Both represent strategies that are important for car makers.

這兩個品牌都代表了對 automakers 很重要的策略。

New figures show that Audi Group, which is owned by VW Group, actually

新的數據顯示，Audi Group，也就是 VW Group 旗下的 Audi，實際上

Not bad and a surprising improvement compared to other German brands that struggled a lot in 2025.

不錯喔，而且跟 2025 年掙扎很多的其他德國品牌相比，這是一個令人驚喜的進步。

Why did Audi fare so much better, especially in comparison to other Volkswagen brands?

為什麼 Audi 的表現這麼好，尤其跟其他福斯集團的品牌比起來？

A big part of the story is electric vehicles, vehicles.

很大一部分原因跟電動 vehicles 有關，就是電動車。

Audi says it set a delivery record with its fully electric models.

Audi 表示，他們靠著全電動車款創下了銷售紀錄。

So attractive EVs are one part of the strategy that the entire industry can take a look at.

所以，有吸引力的電動車是整個 industry 可以參考的策略之一。

But another aspect is their cost cutting bearing fruit.

但另一個面向是，他們削減成本的努力也開始看到成效了。

The other bright or brightish spot for German automakers is BMW.

德國 automakers 另一個表現不錯的亮點是 BMW。

They had a relatively muted annual report.

他們的年度財報表現相對平淡。

Its net profit in 2025 was just under 7 and a half billion euros, a 3% decline compared to 2020.

2025 年的淨 profit 不到 75 億 euros，比 2020 年下滑了 3%。

A dip for sure, but not terrible when put into context.

雖然有點下滑，但跟整體情況比起來，其實不算太糟。

A big part of that is the robust manufacturing that's already happening in the Spartanburg, South Carolina plant located in the good old US of A.

其中一個很大的原因，就是位於美國南卡羅來納州 Spartanburg 工廠強勁的 Manufacturing。

Which means that while yes, BMW did take a hit because of the tariffs, but

這意味著，雖然 BMW 的確因為關稅受到影響，但

BMW is also more diversified than Mercedes.

BMW 的產品線也比 Mercedes 多元化。

For example, for BMW, 25% of sales go to China, as opposed to Mercedes 30%.

舉例來說，BMW 在中國的銷售佔比是 25%，而 Mercedes 是 30%。

So the strategy to take notes on there, diversifying not only production, but markets.

所以在這裡要記下的策略是，不僅要生產多元化，市場也要多元化。

But stepping back, yes, BMW and Audi had some well placed investments that made their vehicles, American made and electric respectively, more attractive to consumers.

但總體來說，沒錯，BMW 和 Audi 都有一些佈局良好的投資，讓他們的 vehicles，分別是美國製造和電動車，對消費者更有吸引力。

But what about the rest of the German car makers?

Was 2025 the year that major improvements were made that will also bear fruit in the future?

2025 年是進行重大改進並能在未來開花結果的一年嗎？

I think the most important asset is that we see progress in the European car industry in terms of cost management.

我認為最重要的資產是，我們看到歐洲 car industry 在成本管理方面有所進步。