Name: 美國會派兵進伊朗嗎？│DW News (Could the US deploy troops to Iran? │DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-15T23:04:35.000Z
Duration: 7 min 6 s

Bring in Fawaz, Jess, professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at London School of Economics.

歡迎 Fawaz、Jess，倫敦政經學院中東政治與國際關係的教授。

所以你看，衝突已經持續 15 天了。

What has been achieved and what has failed?

嗯，我的意思是，讓我們來盤點一下。

Even though it's a moving target, things are in flux and changing on a daily basis.

即使目標一直在變，事情也一直在流動且每天都在變化。

I think the American Israeli war on Iran has achieved some major tactical goals.

我認為美國以色列對伊朗的戰爭達成了一些重要的戰術目標。

The United States and Israel assassinated top Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader, and

美國和以色列刺殺了包括最高領袖在內的伊朗高層領導人，並且

degraded Iran's strategic capabilities, particularly its ballistic missiles.

削弱了伊朗的戰略能力，特別是其彈道導彈。

But I think if you ask me, what's the big picture, the American Israeli war has failed to basically in its all ill defined strategic aims.

但我認為，如果問我，大局是什麼，美國以色列的戰爭基本上未能達成其所有定義不明確的戰略目標。

And Iran has widened the war with strikes against some of the Arab Gulf states, increasing the cost of energy and basically increasing the pain to the United States, Europe and of course slowing the world economy.

而且伊朗透過打擊一些阿拉伯海灣國家，擴大了戰爭，增加了能源成本，基本上增加了美國和歐洲的痛苦，當然也拖慢了世界經濟。

So all in all, I think Iran, I would say is so far has stood fast and is winning at this particular moment.

所以總的來說，我認為伊朗，我會說到目前為止，它一直堅守陣地，並且在這個特定時刻是贏家。

I mean, look, the US Strike on Hag island targeted military facilities around Iran's main oil hub.

我的意思是，你看，美國對哈格島的打擊目標是伊朗主要石油中心的周邊軍事設施。

It's been described that hub as the economic lifeline of the Iranian regime, which, what leverage does it give Washington in the conflict, you think?

這個中心被形容為伊朗政權的經濟生命線，你認為這給華盛頓在衝突中帶來了什麼籌碼？

I think this is very counterproductive for the United States.

我認為這對美國非常適得其反。

Remember, President Trump cannot really afford any major economic pains for the world economy and the American economy.

記得，川普總統真的負擔不起世界經濟和美國經濟遭受任何重大的經濟痛苦。

So far we have seen a major surge in oil and gas prices and also in terms of inflation as well.

到目前為止，我們看到油價和天然氣價格大幅飆升，通貨膨脹也跟著上來。

So any kind of an attack on Iran's Carp island, which produces about 90% of Iranian oil and gas, Iran has basically threatened to retaliate and attack all the energy, the global energy system in the Gulf, thus really complicating and exacerbating the global energy supply in the international system.

所以，任何攻擊伊朗的卡爾普島（Carp island）的行動，該島生產了伊朗約90%的石油和天然氣，伊朗基本上已經威脅要報復，攻擊波斯灣的整個能源系統，這真的會讓國際體系中的全球能源供應更加複雜和惡化。

I would argue that basically it's not in the interest of the United States to target the economic and industrial base of Iran because this really could have some very counterproductive effects on the world economy, including the United States economy as well.

我認為，攻擊伊朗的經濟和工業基礎，基本上不符合美國的利益，因為這真的可能對世界經濟，包括美國經濟，產生非常適得其反的效果。

Well, now President Trump is calling on other nations to send ships to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

嗯，現在川普總統呼籲其他國家派遣船艦來確保荷姆茲海峽的安全。

I'm just wondering what impacts that could have on the conflict.

我只是在想，這可能會對衝突產生什麼影響。

Well, look, President Trump changes his minds on a daily basis.

嗯，你看，川普總統每天都在改變主意。

President Trump basically makes contradictory and conflicting statements.

川普總統基本上會發表相互矛盾、衝突的言論。

There is no coalition of the willing that's coming to the health of President Trump, like the Iraq war in 2003, neither China nor Russia will ever send any ships to basically participate in President Trump's coalition of the willing.

不會有像2003年伊拉克戰爭那樣的「自願聯盟」來幫助川普總統，中國和俄羅斯都不會派遣任何船艦來參與川普總統的自願聯盟。

Even France and Europe have made it very clear they're unwilling to basically try to open the Strait of Hormuz by force.

就連法國和歐洲也都說得很清楚，他們基本上不願意嘗試武力打開荷姆茲海峽。

So at the end of the day, the United States could really bomb Iran and could really basically force its way out of the Strait of Hormuz is in the short term, but

所以說，到最後，美國確實可以轟炸伊朗，在短期內確實可以強行通過荷姆茲海峽，但是

all it takes are very primitive weapons to really block the Strait of Hormuz.

只要有非常原始的武器就足以封鎖荷姆茲海峽。

Only a diplomatic solution could really basically ensure the permanent, basically free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

只有外交解決方案才能真正確保荷姆茲海峽永久、基本上暢通無阻的通行。

I mean, let's pick it up from what you just said.

我的意思是，我們來接續你剛才說的。

You're talking about the only way forward being a diplomatic solution, but

你說唯一的前進方式是外交解決方案，但是

really, is there a credible diplomatic pathway to end the war, including, let's not forget, preventing that escalation in Lebanon.

說真的，有沒有可信的外交途徑來結束戰爭，而且別忘了，還要防止黎巴嫩的局勢升級。

You know, you know, sadly, in fact, we are entering an escalation cycle, not de escalation.

你知道，你知道，很不幸，事實上，我們正在進入一個升級的循環，而不是降級。

The United States is sending more ships and more ground troops to the Gulf.

美國正在向海灣地區派遣更多船艦和更多地面部隊。

In fact, I would not really basically dismiss the idea of a major ground American operation in Iran.

事實上，我不會真的基本上排除美國在伊朗進行大規模地面行動的可能性。

Just, again, a footnote for your own viewers.

只是，再說一次，為你的觀眾補充一下。

Even though the United States and Israel have really inflicted a great deal of pain on Iran, as we know, Iran still controls almost 600 kilos of enriched uranium.

雖然美國和以色列確實給伊朗造成了很大的痛苦，但我們知道，伊朗仍然控制著近 600 公斤的濃縮鈾。

Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Thousands of ships now are stranded in the Gulf around the Strait of Hormuz.

數千艘船隻現在滯留在荷姆茲海峽周邊的海灣地區。

And from Iran perspective, any kind of a diplomatic solution has to take into account that neither the United States nor Israel will start the war.

從伊朗的角度來看，任何外交解決方案都必須考慮到美國和以色列都不會發動戰爭。

記得，他們在去年六月攻擊了伊朗。

So Iran wants to make sure that any solution basically ensures stability and security.

所以伊朗想確保任何解決方案基本上都能確保穩定和安全。

And also it wants to make sure that its deterrence is effective.

而且它也想確保其威懾力是有效的。

In fact, let me make a nonsensical argument, and I could be wrong.

其實，我來做個有點離譜的論點，我可能會錯。

In fact, Iran does not really want a ceasefire at this particular moment.

其實，伊朗在這個時刻並不真的想要停火。

It wants to increase the economic pain for everyone, including its Gulf neighbors, Europe and the United States, to make any kind of a new war against Iran really almost prohibitive in the future.

它想增加所有人的經濟痛苦，包括它的海灣鄰國、歐洲和美國，讓未來任何對伊朗發動的戰爭都變得幾乎不可能。

Fawaz, please tell me there is any glimmer of hope to end this war.

Fawaz，拜託告訴我，有沒有任何一絲希望可以結束這場戰爭？

Well, you know, I wish I could really see a glimmer of hope.

嗯，你知道，我希望我真的能看到一絲希望。

But look, you and I, we might wake up tomorrow, President Trump could declare victory, mission accomplished, and

但是你看，你和我，我們可能會在明天醒來，川普總統就宣佈勝利，任務達成，然後

In fact, President Trump has been preparing the ground to declare victory because President Trump is.

事實上，川普總統一直在為宣佈勝利鋪路，因為川普總統是。

The war has lasted much longer than President Trump wanted.

這場戰爭拖得比川普總統想要的還久。

He wants an easy, fast and uncostly victory.

他想要一個輕鬆、快速、不費力的勝利。

So he can really basically invest it domestically in the United States.

這樣他就能夠真正地將重心放在美國國內。

Fawaz Jajes, professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at London School of Economics, thank you very much.

倫敦政經學院中東政治與國際關係學教授 Fawaz Jajes，非常感謝你。

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美國會派兵進伊朗嗎？│DW News (Could the US deploy troops to Iran? │DW News)

permanent

basically

exaggerate

conflict