Name: 以色列轟炸選出伊朗新領導人的組織的基地！ (Israel bombs compound of group that picks Iran’s new leader)
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T21:41:54.000Z
Duration: 11 min 1 s

Right now in the Middle east, the bombing is intensifying with Israel hitting the compound of the group responsible for choosing Iran's next supreme leader.

在中東地區，以色列正猛烈轟炸負責選出伊朗下一任最高領導人的組織的建築群。

情態副詞

The strike reportedly obliterated a compound where an Iranian council was supposed to elect the new ayatollah.

據報導，這次襲擊摧毀了一個建築群，伊朗的一個委員會原本要在這裡選出新的阿亞圖拉。

基礎被動語態

Now Iran's state media is reporting that it was evacuated before the attack.

現在伊朗的國家媒體報導說，在襲擊前建築群已經撤離了。

And President Trump is saying that it's now even more unclear who might next lead that nation.

川普總統表示，現在更不清楚誰可能會領導那個國家了。

You have someone in mind right now because you said all the people you did have in mind have been taken out.

你現在腦中有想到人選嗎？因為你說過你原本想到的人都已經被移除了。

Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead.

嗯，我們原本想到的大部分人都已經死了。

So, you know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead.

所以，你知道，我們原本想到那個團體裡的一些人，他們都已經死了。

They may be dead also Based on reports, CNN's Nick Payton Walsh joins us live now from northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shimona.

他們可能也已經死了。根據報導，CNN 的 Nick Payton Walsh 現在從以色列北部的 Kiryat Shimona 市為我們現場連線。

So, Nick, just in terms of the compound where some several Iranian officials have gathered to choose the next supreme leader.

所以，Nick，關於一些伊朗官員聚集在那裡挑選下一任最高領導人的建築群，你瞭解多少？

Just walk us through what we know in terms of that compound being targeted.

請跟我們說說，我們對那個建築群被攻擊的瞭解。

The images are publicly available of significant damage to this compound in the city of Qom where the assembly of Experts, according to Israeli Source gathered, that's 88 senior clerics to essentially choose the new supreme leader.

Qom 市的建築群有明顯損毀的影像公開，根據以色列消息，專家會議的 88 位資深神職人員聚集在那裡，目的是要挑選新的最高領導人。

Iranian state media though, is saying that the building was evacuated prior to the strike, essentially saying that the bid by the Israelis here to kill the committee that would anoint the Alatoya successor was unsuccessful.

不過，伊朗國家媒體表示，建築在攻擊前已經撤離，基本上是說以色列試圖殺死冊封阿亞圖拉接班人的委員會的行動失敗了。

We don't know the truth of the matter here.

And it's important to point out that earlier on when we were seeing significant casualties amongst Iran's leadership, we were getting signals from Iranian state media that many of them were actually okay.

而且要強調的是，早些時候我們看到伊朗領導層出現重大傷亡時，伊朗國家媒體傳來的訊息是他們很多人其實都沒事。

So it's important here to try and assess the exact truth of all of this.

所以在這裡，試圖評估所有這些事情的確切真相非常重要。

Frankly, if indeed 88 senior clerics check charged with this extraordinary task would in 2026 think they could only do it after the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei in a large group meeting of leadership decide that they needed to replicate that kind of setting in order to choose a success.

坦白說，如果真的有 88 位資深神職人員負責這項非凡的任務，他們在 2026 年認為只能在潛能哈米尼被暗殺後，透過領導層的大型會議決定需要複製那種場合來挑選接班人。

I should point out too that a similar facility of the assembly of Experts was targeted in Tehran in the recent days as well.

另外，我必須指出，德黑蘭的專家會議近期也遭到類似設施的攻擊。

So a pattern here potentially of the Israelis trying to disrupt the succession process.

所以這可能是一種以色列試圖擾亂接班程序的模式。

Now I should point out how incredibly complicated this particular leadership vacuum makes things in terms of de escalating this war, looking for negotiation.

現在我必須指出，這個領導權真空讓在降級這場戰爭、尋求談判的過程中變得非常複雜。

It's clear from some senior Iranian officials, the foreign minister indeed that the military now in Iran is acting with some degree of autonomy even with previously issued instructions.

從一些伊朗資深官員，甚至外交部長那裡可以清楚得知，伊朗軍方現在的行動，即使有先前發布的訓示，也帶有某種程度的自主性。

So it's not entirely clear if day by day their tasks are being adapted to the particular moment.

所以，他們每天的任務是否會根據當下的情況進行調整，這點並不完全清楚。

And if you're also trying to perhaps look for an off ramp, some kind of negotiation here, if there's nobody in a society as autocratic as Iran actually specifically calling the shots, remember, they've been dependent on the word of the Ayatollah Khomeini for nigh on 40 years now to tell them precisely what path should be chosen, particularly in a moment as key as this.

而且如果你也在尋找一個退場機制，某種形式的談判，如果像伊朗這樣一個獨裁的社會裡，沒有人明確地發號施令，請記住，近 40 年來他們一直依賴阿亞圖拉哈米尼的話來告訴他們應該選擇什麼道路，尤其是在這個關鍵時刻。

That is a very perilous moment of vacuum.

這是一個非常危險的真空時刻。

Essentially, you can understand why Israel that's keen to see regime change and as much damage as possible can be done to Iran's autocracy will continue to persist with that leadership interruption.

基本上，你可以理解為什麼以色列熱衷於看到政權更迭，並盡可能對伊朗的獨裁統治造成損害，將會持續進行這種領導層的中斷。

if you are in the White House now and looking for some moment perhaps where you could seek an off ramp, it's going to be exceptionally hard to do that with what we're seeing now in terms of strikes against the body to choose the Ayatollah's successor, Israel has bombed the compound of the group that chooses the new supreme leader.

如果你現在身處白宮，並尋找一個可以尋求退場機制的時刻，鑑於我們現在看到針對選擇阿亞圖拉接班人的機構的襲擊，這將會非常困難，以色列已經轟炸了選擇新最高領導人的建築群。

I'm being told that I've got a guest standing by for me.

Michael Knights is head of research with Horizon Engage.

Michael Knights 是 Horizon Engage 的研究主管。

He specializes in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran and the Gulf states.

他專門研究伊拉克、伊朗和波斯灣國家的軍事與安全事務。

I'm going to get you because that is our latest, very latest news in Tucson and just get you to respond to what you've just heard me report there.

我要請你來，因為這是我們在 Tucson 的最新、最新的消息，請你針對我剛剛報告的內容做回應。

It's really nice to hear your London accent, Becky.

Becky，聽到你的倫敦腔，感覺真好。

So thank you very much for staying at the post during this hitting of the assembly of Experts building without actually killing large numbers of those officials, if that's what's happened, and

所以非常感謝你在專家會議建築群被攻擊時還堅守崗位，而且如果真的發生了，並沒有造成大量官員死亡，

it seems to be the case indicates that the Israelis probably did what they call a roof knock on the location before they struck it, which means they were trying to disrupt the process of electing a new speaker or appointing a new supreme leader and warning those involved to stay dispersed, but

這似乎也顯示了以色列人可能在攻擊前，對該地點進行了所謂的「屋頂敲擊」，也就是他們試圖幹擾選舉新議長或冊封新最高領導人的過程，並警告相關人員保持分散，但

without trying to actually kill a large number of the most senior clerics in in Iran at the same time.

同時又盡量避免殺害伊朗許多最資深的神職人員。

How much longer can Tehran realistically sustain this pace of attacks without depleting key capabilities or risk a far more punishing response?

德黑蘭在耗盡關鍵能力或冒著遭受更嚴厲報復的風險之前，還能實際維持這種攻擊步調多久？

還有，我們來提醒一下，但要謹慎。

Donald Trump told my colleague, CNN's Jake Tapper yesterday that we are yet to see the big wave as he described it.

川普總統昨天告訴我的同事，CNN 的 Jake Tapper，他所說的大浪潮我們還沒見到。

I think both sides have still got some escalation options in reserve.

我認為雙方都還有一些升級的選項。

The Iranians have not at this point hit upstream energy in the Gulf desalination leadership and they stayed away from some other civilian targets.

伊朗人到目前為止還沒有攻擊波斯灣海水淡化領導層的上游能源，而且他們也避開了一些其他民用目標。

Right now, the US has not gone for providing very strong support to Iranian opposition elements within the country.

目前，美國還沒有對國內的伊朗反對派勢力提供非常強力的支持。

And they still have some, some options in terms of further escalation against regime security targets.

他們在進一步升級針對政權安全目標方面，還有一些選項。

So right now we're at the point where the Iranians basically can survive.

所以目前我們處於伊朗人基本上可以生存的階段。

The Iranian regime could survive at this point.

It can probably hang on for a couple of more weeks.

The question is whether anybody's going to try a lot harder to give it a push over the edge.

問題是，是否會有人更努力地試圖推它一把，讓它垮臺。

The US within the next week or two might decide that just disarming the regime is good enough.

美國在一兩週內可能會決定，讓政權解除武裝就夠了。

I'm in the Gulf region, so I do want to keep this front and center in our reporting because it's important.

我人在波斯灣地區，所以想把這件事放在我們報導的重點，因為這很重要。

We have seen this escalate beyond Israel, of course, and

我們當然看到事態升級，已經超越以色列，

out to the Gulf region and to non military installations.

並擴散到波斯灣地區以及非軍事設施。

We're talking about, you know, oil installations, energy installations, you know, the economy, hotels, etc.

我們談論的是，你知道的，像是石油設施、能源設施，你知道的，經濟、旅館等等。

Gulf states have been intercepting Iranian drones and missiles now for days.

波斯灣國家幾天來一直在攔截伊朗的無人機和飛彈。

Those that have made it through, you know, are clearly targeting these non military installations as well.

那些成功穿越的，你知道的，顯然也瞄準了這些非軍事設施。

But most of those missiles and drones have been intercepted.

但大多數飛彈和無人機都已被攔截。

The UAE saying in a briefing today that they have more than enough ammunition to, to sustainably intercept all types of weapons for, and

阿聯酋今天在簡報中表示，他們有足夠的彈藥，可以持續攔截所有類型的武器，

And their air defense systems are in good shape.

I wonder whether you believe that is the story across the Gulf and just what sort of response we might expect from this region given, you know, that these are not, not retaliatory attacks at this point.

我想知道你是否相信這是海灣地區的說法，以及考慮到這些並非報復性攻擊，我們可能會預期這個地區有什麼樣的回應。

These are illegal attacks on an entire region by Iran.

這是伊朗對整個地區的非法攻擊。

The Gulf states very clearly signaled that they were not going to be active participants in this offensive by the US and Israel, and

波灣國家非常明確地表示，他們不會積極參與美國和以色列的這次攻勢，而且

And not just individual points of US military presence that have been largely evacuated, but

不僅是那些大多已撤離的美國軍事據點，

also these economic and sensitive targets.

You can see the Iranians have tried to hit these targets a lot harder and the Gulf missile defenses and anti drone defenses have been really excellent.

你可以看到伊朗試圖更猛烈地攻擊這些目標，而波灣的飛彈防禦和反無人機防禦確實非常出色。

One reason for that is because they learned a lot from the Yemen war between 2015 and 2019 about how to intercept these kind of drone attacks en masse.

其中一個原因是因為他們從2015到2019年葉門戰爭中學到了很多，知道如何大規模攔截這類無人機攻擊。

So, you know, they have blunted the offensive and what's instead happening is we're seeing individual touch points where individual drones or missiles are getting through and they're signaling what would have been a far larger strike by the Iranians.

所以，你知道，他們削弱了攻勢，而現在我們看到的是一些零星的點，有零星的無人機或飛彈滲透進來，這顯示了伊朗原本可能發動更大規模的攻擊。

I think, personally, we saw the Iranian foreign minister saying this essentially on Sunday.

我個人認為，我們在週日看到了伊朗外交部長這麼說。

The Iranian military is working its way down a preset target list to be executed in the event of the death of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

伊朗軍方正在按預設的目標清單執行，以備最高領導人哈米尼（Ali Khamenei）去世時使用。

And they're still working their way through that.

The civilian military, the civilian leadership in Iran is seemingly trying to gain back some control over the targeting process.

伊朗的文人軍隊、文人領導層似乎正試圖重新掌控目標設定過程。

We're actually looking at images of something that happened this morning in Comms Iran where by the sort of assembly, the assembly of experts, the 88 member assembly of experts that usually gather to choose a supreme leader, that particular compound apparently where they had gathered to choose the next Ayatollah, the next supreme leader was, was bombed.

我們其實正在看今天早上伊朗Qom發生的事情的畫面，那裡是專家會議，通常由88名成員組成的專家會議聚集來選擇最高領導人，據說他們聚集選擇下一位阿亞圖拉、下一位最高領導人的那個建築群被炸了。

So it, if there is no diplomatic off ramp at this point, Elie, if it is virtually impossible to sort of unify and arm the opposition, not that that is a good idea to begin with, but

所以，如果此時沒有外交的出路，Elie，如果幾乎不可能團結和武裝反對派，這本身就不是個好主意，但

if that is a very difficult, if that is a very difficult endeavor, what is the solution and how does this end long term?

如果這是一個非常困難，如果這是一個非常困難的任務，那麼解決方案是什麼？長期來看又會如何結束？

Ellie so look, I think in reality both Iran and President Trump have buckled up for a weeks long military conflict against one another.

Ellie，你看，我認為實際上伊朗和川普總統都已經準備好進行一場為期數週的軍事衝突。

We are also seeing indications from inside Tehran that they are also not prepared for ceasefire negotiations at this stage because going back to the reasoning I said that they are trying to create a deterrence equation that prevents the US and Israel from restarting another war that could again ignite such a regional ripple effect through the Middle east and elsewhere.

我們也看到德黑蘭內部傳來的跡象，表明他們在這個階段也沒準備好進行停火談判，因為回到我剛才說的理由，他們正試圖建立一個威懾方程式，阻止美國和以色列重新發動另一場可能再次在中東及其他地區引發連鎖反應的戰爭。

And so I think they are both in this game of upping the ante militarily for some time.

所以我認為他們都已經準備好進行一場為期數週的軍事衝突了。

And in this in between phase, I think there needs to be some responsible actors, mediators perhaps.

而在這個過渡階段，我認為需要一些負責任的行動者，或許是調解人。

Here we're seeing an increased role for Turkey as some European governments are also standing up to say that there needs to be a de escalation track.

在這裡，我們看到土耳其扮演的角色越來越重要，一些歐洲國家政府也站出來表示需要有降級的途徑。

So someone needs to step in to shepherd what a negotiated settlement would look like.

所以需要有人介入來引導協商解決方案會是什麼樣子。

That essentially allows this phase of the conflict between the US and Iran on the military front to end and for them to go back to the negotiating table.

這基本上能讓美國和伊朗在軍事上的衝突階段結束，讓他們回到談判桌。

Unfortunately, however, once you start a war, the events that come after that are not always predictable.

不幸的是，一旦你開戰，之後發生的事情並不總是可預測的。

The US has had a series of wars that end up going wrong, particularly in this part of the world.

美國經歷了一系列戰爭，結果都出了問題，尤其是在這個地區。

And so I think some cool heads need to intervene now to try and push both Tehran and Trump to de escalate these wartime conditions.

所以我認為現在需要一些冷靜的頭腦介入，試圖推動德黑蘭和川普總統降級這些戰時狀態。