Name: 伊朗領導人視美方要求為「徹底投降」，分析師說法 | DW 新聞 (Iran’s leaders see US demands as ‘complete capitulation’, says analyst| DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-31T11:59:21.000Z
Duration: 4 min 41 s

Iranian President Masoud Bezechkin has accused the U.S.

伊朗總統馬蘇德·貝澤赫爾指控美國

europe and Israel of stirring tensions that, quote, provoked recent protests across Iran.

歐洲和以色列煽動緊張局勢，引發了伊朗最近的抗議活動。

His accusations come as US President Donald Trump pushes Iran to negotiate a deal on its nuclear and missile programs or else face US Military action.

他的指控出現之際，美國總統唐納·川普正敦促伊朗就其核武與飛彈計畫進行談判，否則將面臨美國軍事行動。

Trump says Iran's decision to halt the executions of protesters is evidence to show Tehran was ready to negotiate.

川普表示，伊朗決定停止處決抗議者，證明德黑蘭已準備好談判。

Iran has warned against any attack and has said its arsenal of missiles would never be up for discussion.

伊朗警告不要發動任何攻擊，並表示其飛彈庫存絕不會被討論。

Sarah Basabandi is an Iran analyst and non resident research fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Keel University here in Germany and she joins us from Hamburg.

莎拉·巴薩班迪是伊朗分析師，也是德國基爾大學安全政策研究所的非常駐研究員，她從漢堡加入我們。

Sarah, we heard yesterday the Iranian regime is willing to talk to the US but only about its nuclear program.

莎拉，我們昨天聽到伊朗政權願意與美國談判，但僅限於其核武計畫。

Will, will that be enough to keep President Trump from using the military force he has built up near Iran?

這足以阻止川普總統動用他在伊朗附近集結的軍事力量嗎？

Good morning and thank you for having me.

Nobody really knows the content of the conditions for these conversations from the US Side.

沒有人真正知道美國方面這些對話的條件內容。

And one thing for sure we observe is that they keep changing.

而且我們確定觀察到的一點是，他們一直在變。

At the beginning of this round of pressure by the United States, the violence against the protesters was put as one of the preconditions and one of the key demands of the United States.

在美國這一輪壓力開始時，對抗議者的暴力行為被列為美國的先決條件之一，也是美國的主要要求之一。

Now we're seeing that there is more focus on the nuclear program, which wasn't really a priority prior to this round of unrest and this extreme violence used by the government in Iran.

現在我們看到，焦點更多地放在核計畫上，這在伊朗爆發這一輪動亂和政府使用極端暴力之前，其實並不是優先事項。

So it is quite difficult to navigate what exactly these demands are.

所以要弄清楚這些要求到底是什麼，真的非常困難。

But one thing for sure is that the demands of the United States are, are perceived in Tehran as complete capitulation.

但可以確定的是，德黑蘭方面認為美國的要求是徹底投降。

And the Iranian government doesn't want to accept a complete capitulation.

而伊朗政府不想接受徹底投降。

And if we focus on and assume that those four conditions that we keep hearing through the media, that is nuclear program, missile program, proxy support and violation against human rights domestically are on the table by the United States.

如果我們聚焦並假設媒體不斷傳達的這四個條件，也就是核計畫、飛彈計畫、代理人支持以及國內侵犯人權的行為，是美國提出的。

Accepting these and complying by the US Demand really means a complete change of the current system in Iran.

接受這些並遵守美國的要求，實際上意味著伊朗現行體系將徹底改變。

Republic would not be the same institution, the same state, the same organization, the same mentality, the same vision, the same ideology if they were to accept these four conditions.

如果接受這四個條件，共和國將不再是同一個機構、同一個國家、同一個組織、同一個心態、同一個願景、同一個意識形態。

So I would say that these are sort of existential questions that the Islamic Republic is facing.

所以我會說，這些都是伊斯蘭共和國面臨的生存問題。

And that's the reason that they want to continue signaling that we are open to discussion, we're open to negotiation.

這也是他們想持續傳達「我們願意討論、我們願意談判」的原因。

What they really don't want to commit to anything meaningful level, we're seeing massive military buildup by the US in the region, of course, and

但他們其實不想在任何有意義的層級上做出承諾，我們當然看到美國在這個地區進行大規模軍事集結，

Iran announcing it will carry out military drills in the state of Hormuz.

伊朗也宣佈將在荷姆茲海峽進行軍事演習。

Give us some perspective how precarious a situation are we in could be, you know, as.

請給我們一些觀點，告訴我們現在的處境有多麼危急，你知道的，就像。

As bad as we are anticipating, or it could be not as bad as we are anticipating, but

就像我們預期的那麼糟，或者可能不像我們預期的那麼糟，但是

definitely it can't be worse than we are what we are anticipating.

肯定不會比我們預期的還要糟。

So it really depends on the real cap that the Islamic Republic has, especially maritime capacities.

所以這真的取決於伊斯蘭共和國的真實實力，尤其是海上能力。

Looking at the track record of the Islamic Republic, they don't really have physical assets like aircraft carriers like Abraham Lincoln and so on and so forth, but

看看伊斯蘭共和國的過往紀錄，他們並沒有像亞伯拉罕·林肯號那樣的航空母艦等實體資產，但是

they do have a sort of and practice and exercise their capacities in the Red Sea through the Houthis and support, you know, supplying Houthis with drones and missiles and so on to be able to create enough destruction and conflict, enough pain on everybody around that body of water to make it very difficult for the decision makers to really press the button.

他們確實透過胡塞武裝在紅海進行演練和練習他們的實力，並支持，你知道的，供應無人機和飛彈給胡塞武裝，以便在該水域周圍製造足夠的破壞和衝突，足夠的痛苦，讓決策者很難真的按下按鈕。

And I think that's partly the reason why the United States is hesitating so in asymmetric war and creating real destruction.

我認為這也是美國在不對稱戰爭中猶豫不決、造成真正破壞的部分原因。

in really, in terms of military assets and naval assets, Iran is really short, by far short than any other nations and specifically the United States, which is now present in that region.

在軍事資產和海軍資產方面，伊朗確實很匱乏，遠遠落後於任何其他國家，尤其是目前在該地區的美軍。

Sarah Bazubandi from Keele University, our thanks to you.

非常感謝來自基爾大學的莎拉·巴薩班迪。