Name: 川普的經濟和外交政策諾言有兌現嗎？ DW新聞 (Is Trump fulfilling his economic and foreign policy promises? DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-20T17:36:05.000Z
Duration: 8 min 25 s

Well, he promised a new golden age for America.

嗯，他承諾要為美國帶來一個新的盛世。

Now, one year into Donald Trump's second term, the numbers tell a more complicated story.

現在，唐納·川普的第二任期已經一年了，數字卻講述了一個更複雜的故事。

Growth has stalled, jobs are lagging, and import tariffs are reshaping the U.S. economy.

經濟增長停滯，新增就業落後，進口關稅正在重塑美國經濟。

Our report looks at how far reality matches the promise of prosperity.

我們的報導將探討現實與繁榮的承諾究竟有多大的差距。

He promised the US unprecedented growth and a new era of prosperity.

他承諾美國將迎來前所未有的增長，以及一個新的繁榮時代。

The golden age of America begins right now, a year into Trump's second term.

美國的盛世從現在開始，就在川普第二任期的第一年。

The question is just how is the country doing economically?

問題是，這個國家在經濟上表現如何？

Where are things at in terms of growth, unemployment and new jobs?

在經濟增長、失業率和新增就業方面，情況如何？

US exports are up 2.5% compared to 2024, hitting US$302 billion in October 2025 alone, higher than for a long time.

美國出口與2024年相比增長了2.5%，僅在2025年10月就達到3020億美元，創下長時間以來的最高紀錄。

Nonetheless, in 2025, the economy grew by only around 2%, no more than under Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden.

儘管如此，2025年，經濟增長率僅約2%，與川普的前任喬·拜登時期相比沒有更高。

So if you take the entire year, one year of Donald Trump, the growth forecasts have been very much disappointing.

所以如果看一整年的話，川普執政一年，經濟增長預測其實是令人失望的。

Meanwhile, imports into the US fell sharply in 2025 by well over 3%, which was the President's intention.

同時，2025年美國的進口急劇下降超過3%，這正是總統的意圖。

Unlike his predecessors, Trump slapped import tariffs of 15% plus on almost all foreign partners.

跟他的前任不同，川普對幾乎所有外國夥伴都課徵了15%以上的進口關稅。

This has brought the US government around $300 billion in revenue cash that the White House says will be used to cut national debt and ease the burden on citizens by lowering taxes.

這為美國政府帶來了約3000億美元的收入，白宮表示這些資金將用於削減國債，並透過降低稅負來減輕民眾負擔。

But with imports now declining, so is customs revenue.

但隨著進口現在正在下降，關稅收入也隨之減少。

Another problem is access to specialised import products, which, thanks to the tariffs, are either too expensive or unavailable.

另一個問題是特定進口產品的取得，因為關稅的關係，這些產品要嘛太貴，要嘛根本買不到。

This affects everything from electrical and metal industries to chocolate producers.

這影響了從電機、金屬產業到巧克力製造商的各個領域。

If the tariffs really drastically strangle my business, in my affordability of running this business, then I will have to look at ending this.

如果關稅真的嚴重扼殺了我的生意，影響我經營這間公司的能力，那我將不得不考慮結束它。

And when it comes to tackling the labor market too, there are precious few signs of a golden age.

而在處理勞動市場方面，也幾乎沒有看到盛世的跡象。

Unemployment has remained at around 4% since the Trump administration took office.

自川普政府上任以來，失業率一直維持在4%左右。

到目前為止，情況並沒有改善。

In 2025, only around 600,000 new jobs were created, fewer than in 2024.

2025年，只創造了約60萬個新增就業，比2024年還少。

However, it's a different story when it comes to the stock market.

不過，股市方面就完全是另一回事了。

Prices have seen a strong upward trend for a year, and

the S and P index is well above 6,000 points.

Good stock prices are important for many US citizens, as over 60% of the population invests in the market for extra income or to prepare for retirement.

好的股價對許多美國民眾來說很重要，因為超過60%的人口會投資股市來增加額外收入或為退休做準備。

The how much of the money earned remains in the pockets of those people?

賺來的錢，有多少能真正留在這些人手裡呢？

As with previous President Joe Biden, the inflation rate is just under 3%, more than the 2% recommended by the US Federal Reserve.

和前任總統喬·拜登一樣，通膨率接近3%，超過了美國聯準會建議的2%。

Finally, President Trump announced a wave of investment by foreign companies in the us.

最後，川普總統宣佈了外國公司在美國的一波投資。

It won't be possible to assess the volume of this investment in new production lines until early 2026.

要評估這些新產線的投資規模，得等到2026年初才有可能。

Experts, however, forecast it will go up well.

For more on the first year of Donald Trump's second term, let's bring in Boris Forman here.

關於唐納·川普總統的第二任期第一年，我們請到 Boris Forman 來聊聊。

He's a professor of political science at Bard College in Berlin.

他是柏林巴德學院的政治學教授。

What's the reality on the ground in your perspective?

I mean, as we just saw, it's a little bit more complicated than that, especially when it comes to inflation.

嗯，就像我們剛才看到的，情況比這複雜一點，尤其是在通膨方面。

I mean, the gubernatorial elections we've seen, also the mayoral elections in New York City have shown that affordability really seems to be a major problem for Trump.

我覺得，像是我們看到的州長選舉，還有紐約市長的選舉，都顯示出可負擔性似乎是川普的一個大問題。

And so I think this is really one of his weak points.

所以我認為這真的是他的弱點之一。

The overall picture goes beyond the economy, though.

I think when it comes to deportations or when it comes to cutting down on central state bureaucracy, he has certainly delivered some of his promises.

我覺得，在遣返移民或精簡中央政府官僚體系方面，他確實兌現了一些承諾。

It's obvious that Donald Trump is keen on breaking conventions and maximizing executive power.

很明顯，唐納·川普熱衷於打破慣例並最大化行政權力。

His decision making is impulsive, at times, erratic.

他的決策有時衝動、時而反覆無常。

Do you see Donald Trump displaying autocratic or authoritarian tendencies?

你認為唐納·川普展現了獨裁或威權的傾向嗎？

But I don't think he sees himself as a dictator or as an autocrat.

但我不認為他會認為自己是獨裁者或威權統治者。

And I think this whole debate is not so much about how he thinks of himself.

我認為這整個爭論，重點不在於他怎麼看待自己。

The basic idea of democracy is that politics, political power, shouldn't be too concentrated.

民主的基本理念是，政治、政治權力不應該過度集中。

I mean, this is what the US Used to be all about.

我的意思是，這就是美國過去的宗旨。

Checks and balances, federalism, local government, counterbalancing the federal state, the market, counterbalancing the state.

權力制衡、聯邦制、地方政府、制衡聯邦政府、市場、制衡政府。

I mean, it's all about deconcentrating power.

我的意思是，這一切都是關於權力去集中化。

And what Trump is certainly doing is he's overcoming some of these roadblocks.

而川普確實正在做的一件事，就是他正在克服一些這些阻礙。

He's governed without Congress, basically, except for one major piece of legislation.

他基本上是繞過國會執政，除了其中一項重大法案。

He's used the justice system against his opponents.

他利用司法系統對付他的對手。

So all the things that have been built into and hardwired into the political system of the US he's eroding.

所以美國政治體系中所有內建和根深蒂固的東西，他都在侵蝕。

And I think this is obviously also a problem for American democracy.

我認為這對美國民主顯然也是個問題。

Donald Trump likes to see himself as a peacemaker, and

唐納·川普喜歡將自己視為和平締造者，而且

how he thinks of himself matters, at least to him.

他如何看待自己很重要，至少對他自己來說是這樣。

He's clearly resentful about not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

他顯然對沒有獲得諾貝爾和平獎感到不滿。

Do you see this president as advancing the cause of peace?

你認為這位總統在推進和平事業嗎？

It's a complicated question and a complicated answer, I guess.

我想這是一個複雜的問題，也是一個複雜的答案。

I mean, when it comes to Gaza, I think he did have an important role to play in order to end the war there, even though, of course, a lot of hard questions are still being asked and don't have any answers yet.

我的意思是，就加薩而言，我認為他在結束那裡的戰爭中確實扮演了重要角色，儘管當然，還有很多棘手的問題還在被提出，而且還沒有答案。

But at the same time, he's also destabilizing the global order.

但同時，他也正在破壞全球秩序。

Globalization, post1945 institutions, the UN also are institutions that were carried by the US and he's turned away from that.

全球化、1945年後的各種機構，還有聯合國，這些都是由美國撐起來的，而他卻背離了這些。

I think there are very strong arguments why the US was becoming hesitant after 2008, after the financial crisis, about globalization.

我認為，有很多強而有力的論點可以解釋，為什麼美國在2008年金融危機後，對全球化感到猶豫。

And he's taken that turn, but I think he's taken it somewhere else.

他確實轉向了，但我認為他轉向了另一個方向。

And the world is splitting up into different spheres of influence and geopolitical powers, and

世界正在分裂成不同的勢力範圍和地緣政治強權，

that ultimately cannot be in the interest of the US the midterm elections are coming up that for the House of Representatives, many governorships, Senate seats will be decided.

而這最終不符合美國的利益，因為期中選舉即將到來，眾議院、許多州長職位和參議院席次將被決定。

Do you think this election could go against Donald Trump?

你認為這次選舉會對唐納·川普不利嗎？

從歷史來看，答案應該是肯定的。

I mean, that's the general tendency when we look at all the midterm elections, is where the pendulum swings back and where the opposing party normally wins seats in the House of Representatives and in the Senate.

我的意思是，這是一般趨勢，當我們看看所有的期中選舉時，鐘擺會往回擺，而反對黨通常會在眾議院和參議院贏得席次。

And when we look at the and also when we look at some of the elections that have happened in between or since the presidential elections, that's certainly a tendency we're seeing, but

而且，當我們看看總統大選之間或之後發生的一些選舉，這絕對是我們正在看到的趨勢，但是

I mean, this is just one year since the inauguration of Trump.

我的意思是，這距離川普就職才一年。

The midterm elections are still far away, so let's see what happens until then.

期中選舉還早得很，所以我們就看看那之前會發生什麼事。

Boris, thank you very much for your assessment.

That was Boris Forman, professor of political science at Bard College here in Berlin.

以上是 Bard College 的政治學教授 Boris Forman 在柏林的分析。

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川普的經濟和外交政策諾言有兌現嗎？ DW新聞 (Is Trump fulfilling his economic and foreign policy promises? DW News)

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