Name: 伊朗需要外國介入嗎？| DW 新聞 (Does Iran need foreign intervention? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-13T17:43:19.000Z
Duration: 14 min

US President Donald Trump is putting pressure on Iran's leaders amid their severe crackdown on nationwide anti government protests.

美國總統唐納·川普正在對伊朗領導人施壓，因為他們正在嚴厲鎮壓全國性的反政府抗議活動。

On Monday, Trump posted to his Truth Social platform that any country trading with Iran would pay a tariff of 25% on any business conducted with the US rights groups say they have confirmed the killings of more than 640 people by Iranian security forces.

週一，川普在他的Truth Social平臺上發文表示，任何與伊朗進行貿易的國家，與美國進行的任何業務都將被課徵25%的關稅。美國人權組織表示，他們已確認伊朗安全部隊殺害了超過640人。

Other reports say the death toll could be much higher.

其他報導指出，死亡人數可能更高。

airstrikes on Iran remain on the table as a response to the violent repression here in Europe.

對伊朗的空襲仍然是選項之一，以回應這裡歐洲發生的暴力鎮壓。

Calls for support of the Iranian protesters are becoming louder, although support without military intervention.

對伊朗抗議者的支持呼聲越來越大，但這並不包括軍事幹預。

So far, there's only been condemnation of the violence against protesters, with the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz among the critical voices.

到目前為止，只有對抗議者暴力行為的譴責，德國總理弗里德里希·梅爾茨是其中一位批評者。

When a regime can only stay in power through violence, it has de facto reached its end.

當一個政權只能透過暴力維持權力時，它實際上已經走到盡頭了。

I believe we're seeing the last days and weeks of this regime.

我相信我們正見證這個政權的最後日子和最後幾週。

It has no democratic legitimacy through elections, and the population is now rising up.

這個政權沒有透過選舉產生的民主合法性，現在人民正在起義。

I hope there's an opportunity to peacefully end this conflict.

我希望有機會和平地結束這場衝突。

這些毛拉政權必須接受這一點。

The US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he supports the protesters in Iran and that he is considering military action to stop them from being killed by the regime.

美國總統唐納·川普一再表示，他支持伊朗的抗議者，並正在考慮採取軍事行動，阻止他們被政權殺害。

And with the Islamic Republic's crackdown intensifying, this is what a growing number of Iranians are putting their hopes on, both inside the country and in the diaspora.

隨著伊斯蘭共和國的鎮壓加劇，越來越多的伊朗人，無論是在國內還是海外僑民，都寄望於此。

讓我們來聽聽禮薩·巴列維的發言。

He is Iran's exiled crown prince and an increasingly visible leader of the Iranian opposition.

他是伊朗流亡的王儲，也是伊朗反對派日益活躍的領導人。

He spoke to the Fox News Channel's Sunday morning Futures.

他接受了福斯新聞頻道週日早間節目《Futures》的採訪。

You know that you're not going to throw them under the bus as they have had before.

你知道你不會像以前那樣犧牲他們。

This is why they believe that this time they are empowered by the hope that you have their back.

這就是為什麼他們相信這次他們有希望作為後盾。

Your words of solidarity with the Iranian people and your administration has had tremendous positive effect.

你對伊朗人民表達的聲援，以及你的政府，都產生了巨大的正面影響。

Let's hope that we can permanently seal this legacy by liberating Iran so that we and you can make Iran great again.

希望我們能透過解放伊朗，永遠鞏固這份歷史遺產，這樣我們和你們就能讓伊朗再次偉大。

我們現在可以請卡斯拉·阿拉比加入。

He's the director of research into Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps at the United Against Nuclear Iran Organization, and

他是「聯合反對核武伊朗組織」中，負責研究伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的負責人，

he's a specialist on Iran and its military apparatus.

也是伊朗及其軍事體系方面的專家。

Kasra, can I ask you, how would a military intervention in Iran have to be carried out in order to support protesters rather than endanger injuring them further?

卡斯拉，我可以問你一個問題嗎？在伊朗進行軍事幹預，要如何進行才能支持抗議者，而不是進一步危及或傷害他們？

嗯，我們先把這個情境說清楚。

New reports indicate in the past 24 hours we've received new Reports, and

新的報導指出，在過去24小時內，我們收到新的報告，

they indicate that as many as 12,000 civilians may have been killed by the regime.

顯示可能有高達一萬兩千名平民遭政權殺害。

So the death toll is looking closer to 12,000.

所以死亡人數看起來接近一萬兩千人。

Now, what we have on the ground in Iran is a situation whereby the regime has an extensive suppressive apparatus that cuts across every level and sector of Iranian society.

在伊朗，我們現在面臨的情況是，政權擁有一個廣泛的鎮壓機制，滲透到伊朗社會的各個層級和部門。

The protest, the cycle of protests and suppression will continue unless you change the balance of power between the unarmed civilians and the fully armed and fully radicalized suppressive apparatus.

除非改變手無寸鐵的平民與全副武裝、極端化的鎮壓部隊之間的權力平衡，否則抗議與鎮壓的循環將會持續下去。

So targeted strikes, targeted military strikes, that focus on that suppressive infrastructure, focusing on IRGC headquarters, sub headquarters, operational units, that infrastructure, that capability, has the ability to change that balance of power.

是以，有針對性的打擊，有針對性的軍事打擊，聚焦於鎮壓基礎設施，聚焦於伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊總部、次級總部、行動單位，這些基礎設施、這些能力，有能力改變權力平衡。

And let's be absolutely clear, civilians, Iranian civilians, are not in IRGC headquarters.

我們要非常清楚，平民，伊朗平民，不在伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊總部。

他們也不在伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊次級總部。

Rather, they're being killed by the orders coming from those headquarters.

相反地，他們正被來自這些總部的命令殺害。

I just want to come back to the number that you quoted there.

我只是想回到你剛才引用的數字。

So you're saying that there are some estimates of 12,000 people, people having been killed.

所以你的意思是，有估計說有 12,000 人，有人被殺害。

A new report by Iran International this morning put the figure based off sourcing inside of the country at 12,000.

伊朗國際臺今天早上的一份新報導指出，根據國內消息來源，數字是 12,000。

Reports that we have also looked at in the past 24 hours indicated that it was close, unconfirmed reports close to 7,000.

我們在過去 24 小時內也看過的報導顯示，數字接近，未經證實的報導接近 7,000。

So I think you're looking at a death toll, really, between 7 to 12,000.

所以我認為你看到的是，死亡人數真的在 7,000 到 12,000 之間。

我們看到太平間裡擠滿了屍體。

You have a ruthless regime that is unleashing full brutality on the streets.

有一個殘酷的政權正在街頭釋放全面的殘暴。

It is obviously an extremely difficult situation.

這顯然是一個極其艱難的局面。

Let's just go back to the idea of intervention.

And let's talk about the obvious target, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

讓我們來談談明顯的目標，最高領袖哈米尼。

Do you think the US Might directly target him or potentially even capture him, as they did with President Maduro in Venezuela?

你認為美國可能會直接鎖定他，或者像在委內瑞拉對待馬杜羅總統那樣，直接抓捕他嗎？

I think the context in Iran is very different to Venezuela.

我認為伊朗的背景和委內瑞拉非常不同。

In Iran, you have a highly radicalized and extensive security apparatus that is loyal to the Ayatollah, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

在伊朗，你有一套高度激進且龐大的安全部隊，他們效忠於阿亞圖拉，阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈米尼。

But Khamenei has personalized every aspect of of power in the Islamic Republic.

但哈米尼已經將伊斯蘭共和國的權力各個層面個人化了。

He has installed his cult of personality across every section of power, including, by the way, across the ranks of the suppressive apparatus.

他在權力的每個部門都建立了個人崇拜，包括，順帶一提，在鎮壓部隊的各個層級。

所以哈米尼是一個合法的目標。

He is giving the orders to kill Iranians on the streets if he is eliminated.

如果他被剷除，他就是下令在街頭殺害伊朗人的那個人。

I believe this needs to be simultaneously carried out through a targeted military campaign that focuses on the suppressive infrastructure.

我認為這需要同時透過一場針對鎮壓基礎設施的目標式軍事行動來執行。

That would inflict a major shock to the foundations of the Islamic Republic.

這將對伊斯蘭共和國的根基造成重大衝擊。

It's what, by the way, the Iranian people have been calling for on the streets.

這也是，順帶一提，伊朗人民在街頭一直呼籲的。

But that needs to take place simultaneously alongside targeted strikes that dismantle the security apparatus, because that's what's going on the streets and killing the Iranians.

但這需要同時進行，並搭配瓦解安全部隊的目標式打擊，因為這就是正在街頭發生、殺害伊朗人的原因。

I did want to ask you, do you see any alternative for a military intervention?

我想問你，你認為軍事幹預還有其他選擇嗎？

Is there anything else the US or any other nation could do to support the protesters in Iran?

美國或其他國家還有什麼能做的來支持伊朗的抗議者嗎？

The European powers should be putting full diplomatic pressure on the regime.

歐洲各國應該對這個政權施加全面的外交壓力。

And this means making it very clear to the regime that it will be fully diplomatically isolated if this happens.

這意味著要非常清楚地告訴這個政權，如果這樣做，他們將會被完全外交孤立。

It needs to be targeting Iranian petrochemical sales.

這需要鎖定伊朗的石化產品銷售。

We've seen how the Europeans have adopted a tough stance against illicit Russian oil.

我們看到歐洲國家對俄羅斯的非法石油採取了強硬立場。

The Europeans now need to adopt a tough stance against targeting Iranian oil.

歐洲現在需要對鎖定伊朗石油採取強硬立場。

We need a maximum pressure campaign against the regime, cyber operations, psychological warfare operations.

我們需要對這個政權進行最大程度的壓力運動，包括網路行動、心理戰行動。

But crucially, this needs to take place against the backdrop of a targeted military campaign that targets the killing machine of the Ayatollah.

但關鍵是，這需要在針對阿亞圖拉的殺戮機器的目標軍事行動的背景下進行。

We need to dismantle that killing machine, Kasra Arabi from United Against Nuclear Iran.

我們需要拆除這個殺戮機器，來自 United Against Nuclear Iran 的 Kasra Arabi。

He is a renowned professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, specializing in Middle east politics, Islamism and US Foreign policy in the region.

他是倫敦政經學院著名的國際關係學教授，專長是中東政治、伊斯蘭主義以及美國在此區域的外交政策。

Welcome to the program and thank you so much for joining us.

歡迎來到節目，非常感謝你的加入。

What do you think that the regime is thinking when they hear those statements from the German chancellor?

當德國總理發表那些聲明時，你認為這個政權在想什麼？

Because European leaders have been condemning the crackdown.

因為歐洲領導人一直在譴責這次的鎮壓。

Well, I think what we need to understand is that Iran is facing an existential crisis.

嗯，我認為我們需要了解的是，伊朗正處於一個存亡危機之中。

This is the most significant threat to the Clarence in Tehran since 1979, the revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran.

這是自1979年推翻伊朗國王的那場革命以來，德黑蘭的教士們面臨的最嚴峻威脅。

I doubted very much whether the condemnation by European leaders, including the German Chancellor, will sway the resolve of the clerics to clamp down against the protesters.

我非常懷疑包括德國總理在內的歐洲領導人的譴責，是否能動搖教士們鎮壓抗議者的決心。

Europe has very little influence over Iran, in particular after it reimposed the sanctions against Iran a few months ago.

歐洲對伊朗的影響力非常小，尤其是在幾個月前重新實施對伊朗的制裁之後。