Name: 【國際時事】中國如何報復美國關稅？ (How China Could Retaliate Against U.S. Tariffs)
Uploaded: 2025-05-07T02:46:43.000Z
Duration: 10 min 41 s

China is the world's second-largest economy, the second-largest supplier of products to the United States, and the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.

中國是世界第二大經濟體、美國第二大產品供應國和美國第二大外債持有國。

情態副詞

So China is actually a bigger financial power than it looks like on the surface.

是以，中國實際上是一個比表面看起來更大的金融大國。

President Trump is using tariffs to address China's dominance.

特朗普總統正在利用關稅來應對中國的主導地位。

The White House has suggested that tariffs on some Chinese products may reach up to 245 percent.

白宮表示，對部分中國產品徵收的關稅可能高達 245%。

In January 2025, the average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese exports was about 20 percent.

2025 年 1 月，美國對中國出口產品的平均關稅稅率約為 20%。

By the end of April, this rate shot up to about 124 percent, which means the cost for U.S. companies importing goods from China has more than doubled, for now.

到 4 月底，這一比率飆升至約 124%，這意味著美國公司從中國進口商品的成本暫時增加了一倍多。

We've already raised tariffs to such a high degree that with time, trade will go to zero.

我們已經將關稅提高到如此高的程度，隨著時間的推移，貿易將歸零。

It is a very uncertain period of time, so a lot of businesses are having difficulty planning around that changing landscape.

這是一個非常不確定的時期，是以很多企業都很難圍繞不斷變化的形勢制定計劃。

The fact is, is that both sides need the other.

The escalation this spring made markets panic.

特朗普現在已經準備好談判了。

I'm not going to say, oh, I'm going to play hardball with China.

我不會說，哦，我要和中國玩硬的。

I'm going to play hardball with you, President Xi.

In May, the Chinese government indicated that it's evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the United States.

今年 5 月，中國政府表示正在評估與美國進行貿易談判的可能性。

China is sending strong signals, strong signals that the games that we are playing, which are tariff games and supply chain games, for them, it's about survival.

中國正在發出強烈的信號：我們正在玩的遊戲，也就是關稅遊戲和供應鏈遊戲，對他們來說，事關生存。

Here are some of the ways that China could retaliate against U.S. tariffs.

以下是中國可能對美國關稅進行報復的一些方式。

The U.S. government is over $36 trillion in debt.

美國政府負債超過 36 萬億美元。

China is one of many foreign countries holding that debt.

中國是持有這些債務的眾多外國之一。

The U.S. borrows money and goes into debt by issuing Treasury securities.

美國通過發行國債來借錢和舉債。

Entities in China have been buying these securities for decades.

幾十年來，中國的實體一直在購買這些證券。

These holdings give China some influence over U.S. financial markets.

這些持股使中國對美國金融市場產生了一定的影響。

All told, China's holdings are now 4% of GDP, of our GDP.

總而言之，中國現在持有的股票佔 GDP 的 4%，佔我們 GDP 的 4%。

That's big enough that if they sold it really, really quickly, and if the Federal Reserve just did nothing, that it would have a short-term impact.

如果美聯儲什麼都不做，那麼如果他們真的很快就賣掉它，就會產生短期影響。

People who need to finance homes could feel the impact.

需要貸款買房的人可能會受到影響。

In April, as news of tariffs spread, yields on 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds increased.

4 月份，隨著關稅消息的傳播，30 年期和 10 年期國債收益率上升。

Rates for consumer loans, like mortgages, shot up alongside them.

抵押貸款等消費貸款的利率也隨之上升。

In theory, if China wanted to try to tank the bond market, what it would do would be to take all of the Treasuries that it owns and dump them on the open market at once.

從理論上講，如果中國想阻止債券市場，它應該做的就是把它擁有的所有國債一次性拋到公開市場上。

And in previous financial crises, particularly in 2008 and in 2020, when there's been such a crisis, there is often what is referred to as a flight to quality.

在以往的金融危機中，尤其是在 2008 年和 2020 年，當出現這樣的危機時，往往會出現所謂的 "向優質產品出逃 "的現象。

So a lot of folks feeling suddenly very risk-averse try to invest them in the safest asset, which is in fact U.S.

是以，很多人突然覺得自己非常規避風險，試圖將它們投資於最安全的資產，而這其實就是美國。

奇怪的是，這種情況並沒有發生。

And that prompted a whole bunch of speculation that maybe either China or Japan were dumping bonds.

這引發了一大堆猜測，也許是中國或日本在拋售債券。

But experts do not believe that China has played this card, at least not yet.

但專家們並不認為中國打出了這張牌，至少現在還沒有。

I think what we saw recently had very little to do with China and more to do with others who are really questioning the good faith of owning U.S. debt these days.

我認為，我們最近看到的情況與中國關係不大，而更多的是與其他人有關，他們最近確實在質疑持有美國債務的誠意。

For China, though, the signal is Trump is paying attention to the bond market.

不過，對中國來說，信號是特朗普正在關注債券市場。

They may not even have to fire that gun because when others fire it, people assume that it's China or think that China may fire it and then further imperil the U.S. situation.

他們甚至可能不需要開槍，因為當別人開槍時，人們會認為是中國，或者認為中國可能會開槍，然後進一步危及美國的局勢。

That said, China's government has other tools it could use against the U.S.

儘管如此，中國政府還有其他工具可以用來對付美國。

For example, China supplies 60 percent of the world's rare earth elements.

例如，中國供應著全球 60% 的稀土元素。

These elements are crucial for modern technologies in defense, alongside oil refining, electric cars and wind turbines.

這些元素與煉油、電動汽車和風力渦輪機一樣，對現代國防技術至關重要。

We're starting to see some export controls put in place around things like gallium, germanium, antimony.

我們開始看到一些圍繞鎵、鍺、銻等物質的出口管制措施。

And here's where the U.S. is extremely vulnerable, because we still rely a lot on China's supply chain for some of the elements that we need in our defense sector.

而這正是美國極其脆弱的地方，因為我們仍然在很大程度上依賴中國的供應鏈來提供我們國防部門所需的某些要素。

And this is a case where finding a substitute for those critical minerals is going to be extremely costly.

而在這種情況下，要找到這些關鍵礦物質的替代品，成本將極其高昂。

The higher tariff rates on China slowed activity at U.S. ports down sharply.

對中國徵收更高的關稅使美國港口的活動大幅放緩。

There are now concerns that a supply shock is inbound for the U.S.

現在，人們擔心美國將面臨供應衝擊。

Some businesses are saying, we're going to hold hold off as long as we can, and they're paying higher storage costs.

一些企業表示，我們將盡可能拖延時間，他們需要支付更高的存儲成本。

Our other clients are trying to move to third countries, right?

我們的其他客戶正試圖轉移到第三國，對嗎？

They're determining, well, while there may be a global tariff on countries in Europe, on other countries in Southeast Asia or more broadly, they're wagering that those tariff situations are going to be more favorable than China.

他們的判斷是，雖然歐洲國家、東南亞國家或更廣泛的國家可能會被徵收全球關稅，但他們打賭這些國家的關稅情況會比中國更有利。

Products imported from China tend to be cheaper than those made in the U.S.

從中國進口的產品往往比美國製造的產品便宜。

The Chinese business model is predicated on selling subsidized goods into the U.S., so I am sure that they will come and want to de-escalate.

中國的商業模式是以向美國銷售補貼商品為前提的，是以我相信他們會來並希望緩和局勢。

Treasury Secretary, a member of Trump's cabinet, has argued that the American dream is not about access to cheap goods.

作為特朗普內閣成員之一的財政部長認為，美國夢與獲得廉價商品無關。

Contrary to what the Secretary of the Treasury said, Americans are actually pretty happy with having cheap goods.

與財政部長所說的相反，美國人其實對擁有廉價商品非常滿意。

And so as a result, we buy a lot of them, and therefore we've been running this persistent trade deficit for a while.

是以，我們購買了大量的這些產品，所以我們的貿易赤字已經持續了一段時間。

China's trade surplus remains sizable, despite shrinking since tariff rates first rose in 2018.

儘管自 2018 年關稅稅率首次上調以來，中國的貿易順差有所縮減，但仍保持著可觀的規模。

I mean, Apple would not be as profitable if it wasn't able to make all its iPhones in China.

我的意思是，如果蘋果公司不能在中國生產所有的 iPhone 手機，它的利潤就不會那麼高。

And I would throw in like, look, a lot of the winners on the corporate side have resisted, frankly, contributing to our society in ways that would make it easier for us to help those who've been left behind.

我還想說，聽著，坦率地說，很多企業方面的贏家都不願意為我們的社會做出貢獻，而這種貢獻會讓我們更容易幫助那些被拋在後面的人。

China was the third largest destination for U.S. exports in 2024.

2024 年，中國是美國第三大出口目的地。

From China's perspective, imports from the United States are big business, but it has other options.

在中國看來，從美國進口是筆大生意，但中國還有其他選擇。

China basically told its state-owned oil and gas companies, you're not going to buy any U.S. natural gas.

中國基本上告訴其國有石油和天然氣公司，你們不會購買任何美國天然氣。

And we got news that China had told its state airlines that they can't take delivery of Boeings that they've already ordered.

我們得到消息說，中國已告知其國有航空公司，他們不能接收已經訂購的波音飛機。

If China really wanted to play nasty, they could say, we're going to limit exports of iPhones.

如果中國真的想玩陰的，他們可以說，我們要限制 iPhone 的出口。

You could squeeze Tesla, both limiting its sales in China, but also making it much, much, much harder for Tesla to get parts and kind of squeeze their Chinese operations.

你可能會擠壓特斯拉，既限制其在中國的銷售，又使特斯拉更難、更難、更難獲得零部件，從而擠壓其在中國的業務。

You can do that for other companies, too.

As well, we saw additions in China of what they call the unreliable list.

此外，我們還看到中國增加了所謂的 "不可靠名單"。

Basically, a list of entities in China that have a lot of difficulty doing business there when they are added to that list.

基本上，這是一份在中國開展業務時會遇到很多困難的實體名單。

There are restrictions on investment, on import and export activity.

投資、進出口活動都受到限制。

So it's their equivalent of a blacklist of U.S. companies.

是以，這相當於他們的美國公司黑名單。

So I'd say energy and agriculture are probably the two most impacted industries on the export side of the house.

是以，我認為能源和農業可能是出口方面受影響最大的兩個行業。

So the agricultural sector, particularly agriculture in red states, will find themselves at some point, the longer this goes on on a list.

是以，農業部門，尤其是紅州的農業部門，會發現自己在某些時候，這種情況持續的時間越長，名單上的人就越多。

So soybeans, of course, was the big one in 2018.

是以，大豆當然是 2018 年的重頭戲。

我們很可能會再次看到這一點。

And here it's particularly painful because since the first trade war, many of our soybean farmers have spent so much time trying to rebuild their relationships in China, bring back some of the market share that they lost to countries like Brazil, and it's likely going to be hit again.

在這裡，這尤其令人痛苦，因為自第一次貿易戰以來，我們的許多大豆種植者花費了大量時間試圖重建他們在中國的關係，奪回他們從巴西等國手中失去的一些市場份額，而這很可能會再次受到打擊。

The countries that face higher tariff rates have tight deadlines to negotiate with Trump's team.

面臨更高關稅稅率的國家與特朗普團隊談判的期限很緊。

That's straining political relationships that were built over decades.

這讓幾十年來建立起來的政治關係變得緊張。

One thing that would give me pause is if you saw a much stronger relationship form between the European Union and China in response to the Trump administration's trade policies.

如果你看到歐盟和中國之間因特朗普政府的貿易政策而形成了更為牢固的關係，那會讓我感到不安。

Trump administration has burned through an awful lot of goodwill in the international system.

特朗普政府在國際體系中消耗了大量善意。

The reason the dollar persists as the global reserve currency is at this point is not because of any real, you know, fondness or American soft power.

目前，美元之所以仍是全球儲備貨幣，並不是因為對美國的真正喜愛或美國的軟實力。

It's because of just the weight of history.

Even three months ago, before the reciprocal tariffs, I think a lot of countries in the world would have been on the side of the United States.

即使是三個月前，在互惠關稅之前，我認為世界上很多國家都會站在美國一邊。

China has been a very difficult trading partner.

中國一直是一個非常困難的貿易伙伴。

There was, and I think there still is, a real concern that trading with China just means letting your own industry get wiped out.

過去，而且我認為現在仍然存在著一種真正的擔憂，即與中國進行貿易就意味著讓自己的產業遭受滅頂之災。

China's president, Xi Jinping, visited Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia in the weeks after worldwide reciprocal tariffs were announced.

在宣佈全球互惠關稅後的幾周內，中國國家主席習近平訪問了越南、高棉和馬來西亞。

He called for joint efforts to push back against, quote, unilateral bullying from the United States.

他呼籲共同努力，回擊美國的單方面霸凌行為。

China also promised to retaliate against any nations that cut deals with the U.S. to the detriment of China.

中國還承諾對任何與美國達成不利於中國的協議的國家進行報復。

China's position in the world grew when the United States lobbied for China's entry into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s.

2000 年代初，美國遊說中國加入世界貿易組織，中國在世界上的地位隨之提高。

With hindsight, I would not support China's entry into the WTO.

事後看來，我不會支持中國加入世貿組織。

I think it's ended up causing more problems than it has solved.

我認為，這樣做造成的問題比解決的問題還多。

China has sent out loads of inexpensive products over the years, enabled by low wages, fewer safety standards for workers, and looser environmental regulations, hollowing out the manufacturing base in countries like the United States.

多年來，中國憑藉低工資、較低的工人安全標準和較寬鬆的環境法規，輸出了大量廉價產品，掏空了美國等國的製造業基礎。

Some see Trump's move on tariffs as long overdue.

一些人認為，特朗普早就應該採取關稅措施了。

There are many of our clients who are very supportive of higher tariffs.

我們的許多客戶都非常支持提高關稅。

These are largely domestic manufacturers or producers that have felt for a long time that their products are unfairly competing against foreign imports.

這些主要是國內製造商或生產商，他們長期以來一直認為自己的產品在與外國進口產品的競爭中處於不公平的地位。

時間會證明這個計劃是否可行。