Name: 壓力山大！梅爾茲能帶領德國度過2026年嗎？ | 柏林簡報Podcast (Under pressure: Can Merz steer Germany through 2026? | Berlin Briefing Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-13T17:20:37.000Z
Duration: 35 min 53 s

Prices at the pump have been going haywire in Germany.

德國的油價最近簡直是亂七八糟。

Up to 50 changes in a single day, according to the Federal Antitrust Authority.

根據聯邦反壟斷局的說法，一天內最多會有 50 次價格變動。

The spike in oil prices after the escalation involving Israel, the US and Iran sent drivers here fuming.

以色列、美國和伊朗之間的衝突升級後，油價飆漲，讓這裡的駕駛氣炸了。

In this country that is still very much autoland, politicians piled on, accusing oil companies of essentially ripping off customers.

在這個仍然很重視汽車的國家，政客們紛紛指責石油公司根本就是在敲詐顧客。

And when the outrage didn't die down, the economy Minister stepped in, announcing petrol stations would soon be limited to one price change per day.

當民眾的怒火沒有平息時，經濟部長介入了，宣佈加油站的價格變動將很快限制為一天一次。

But behind the headlines is a bigger story.

但在這些頭條新聞的背後，還有一個更大的故事。

The crisis in Iran is hitting an already weak German economy and the political fallout is landing squarely on the Chancellor and his coalition.

伊朗的危機正在衝擊本已疲軟的德國經濟，而政治上的餘波則直接衝擊著總理及其聯合政府。

Michaela Kufner 將在線上加入我們。

You're traveling to Norway with Friedrich Mehr.

你要和 Friedrich Merz 一起前往挪威。

It's quite a background you've got there, Michelle, for everybody who's not watching us, make sure that you try and find us on YouTube to just see the gorgeous background that.

Michelle，妳的背景真的很棒，還沒看我們節目的觀眾，記得一定要到 YouTube 找我們，看看這個超美的背景。

Michaela，妳會跟我們好好介紹。

And here in the studio, I have our very own Giulia Saudelli and Max Hoffman.

在攝影棚這邊，我請到了我們自己人 Giulia Saudelli 和 Max Hoffman。

And all three of you, I have to say, covered the regional elections that just happened in Baden Wurtemberg very, very closely, speaking to all the relevant players.

說到你們三位，我得說，你們都非常密切地關注了剛結束的巴登-符騰堡州選舉，跟所有相關人士都談過了。

And there were quite some developments there that are not good news for Friedrich Merz.

而且那裡有些發展對 Friedrich Merz 來說，可不是什麼好消息。

Yeah, I'm in the beautiful spa city of Wiesbaden here in Germany, where the German Chancellor stops by to celebrate the anniversary of the German Federal Criminal Police Office.

是的，我現在在德國美麗的溫泉城市 Wiesbaden，德國總理在這裡要來慶祝德國聯邦刑事警察局的週年紀念。

So you might be hearing some celebrations behind me.

所以你可能聽得到我身後有些慶祝的聲音。

But also he is safe from getting some questions on the state of the economy.

但他也安全了，不用回答關於經濟狀況的問題。

Yeah, what is the state of the economy and just how concerned, how worried is the German government?

對，經濟狀況到底怎麼樣？德國政府有多擔心、多憂慮？

You know, following everything that's happening in Iran, it is having an effect.

你知道的，在伊朗發生的所有事情，都產生了影響。

Right, Misaela, just give us a bit of answer.

好的，Michaela，請妳稍微回答一下。

Yeah, I mean, it's the government, government's job to project confidence.

對，我的意思是，展現信心是政府的職責。

But there are estimates that the German economy could grow up to 0.8% next year.

但有估計說，德國經濟明年可能成長高達 0.8%。

其實就在我們錄音的今天，剛出爐一份新的研究報告

as we're recording this, that this whole Iran crisis, the price hikes in energy could cost up to 0.2% of GDP.

指出，這整個伊朗危機、能源價格上漲，可能會讓 GDP 損失高達 0.2%。

不過這些都還只是很早期的預測。

And the big question is this is a chart who's already lagging behind in his promises of getting the economy going again almost a year into coming into, and

而最大的問題是，這張圖顯示的是，他上任將近一年了，卻還在拖延他讓經濟重振的承諾，

it's still a lackluster economy, although there are some positive signs, but

經濟依然低迷，雖然有些正面跡象，但

also businesses here in Germany are really crying foul.

They're saying that 10% less orders to German industry in terms of potential exports, that is really a crushing number.

他們說，德國工業的訂單減少了 10%，這對潛在出口數字來說，真的是一個毀滅性的數字。

And there are huge fears that what is still struggling to get off the ground, that's this promise of re energizing the economy, will fall flat over Iran and over yet more price hikes on the economy.

而且大家非常擔心，這個還在努力起步的經濟重振承諾，會因為伊朗危機和更多的物價上漲而徹底失敗。

And that is a huge concern for France, who's already struggling to deliver on his promises and who is a lot slower in tackling the reforms he promised than he initially mapped out.

這對法國來說是個大問題，法國已經在努力兌現他的承諾，而且在處理他承諾的改革方面，比他最初規劃的慢很多。

First of all, you're going to be a familiar face for our viewers in the next weeks and months to come.

首先，在接下來的幾週和幾個月裡，我們的觀眾會對你感到熟悉。

You are joining us as one of the Berlin briefing hosts.

你將加入我們，成為柏林簡報的主持人之一。

You're also going to be covering the Social Democrats very, very closely, and they are terribly nervous.

你也會非常、非常密切地關注社會民主黨，他們現在非常緊張。

The Social Democrats are, of course, in a coalition government with Friedrich Merz on the national level, but

社會民主黨當然在國家層級與 Friedrich Merz 的政黨組成聯合政府，但是

they're seeing election failure after election failure, and

他們看到一次又一次的選舉失敗，而且

polls are really not looking good for them yet.

目前的民調對他們來說一點也不樂觀。

At the same time, they're going to have to try and deliver, as Michaela said, together with Friedrich Merz's conservatives.

同時，正如 Michaela 所說，他們必須和 Friedrich Merz 的保守派一起努力達成目標。

We have Iran that was just mentioned, the economic situation.

我們有剛才提到的伊朗，還有經濟狀況。

And we have several very important state elections happening this year.

而且今年還有幾場非常重要的州選舉。

The first one was last weekend in Baden Wilderness, which is a big state economic powerhouse.

上週末在巴登-符騰堡州舉行了第一場，那是一個重要的經濟強州。

You could maybe call it the California of Germany to a certain extent.

某種程度上，你可以稱它為德國的加州。

Well, that's because you're from Badenberg.

嗯，那是因為你來自巴登-符騰堡。

Less of an ocean and less sun, but still.

海洋比較少，陽光也比較少，但還是。

We have Mercedes, we have Porsche, we have, you know, all the, the whole manufacturing business like Boston.

我們有 Mercedes、Porsche，你知道的，還有像 Boston 這樣的整個製造業。

So it's a very important economic state for Germany.

所以它是德國一個非常重要的經濟州。

And it was kind of a bellwether for what's to come this year, although it's hard to compare the different state elections and what happened in Baden Wiltenberg.

而且它有點像是今年接下來情況的風向球，雖然很難將不同的州選舉以及在巴登-符騰堡發生的事情做比較。

And that's why we're talking about it even at Deutsche Welle, because if you're watching us abroad, you might not be so interested in Baden Wildenberg, but

所以這就是為什麼我們在 Deutsche Welle 也在討論它，因為如果你在國外看我們，你可能對巴登-符騰堡沒那麼有興趣，但

you should be, because the SPD, the Social Democrats, came out of that election with 5.5%, which is very low for them.

你應該要有興趣，因為 SPD，社會民主黨，在這個選舉中只拿到了 5.5%，這對他們來說非常低。

You know, this, this is a very old, very proud party that in the past was used to results maybe not in Badenburg, but

你知道的，這是一個非常古老、非常驕傲的政黨，過去他們習慣的成績，雖然不是在巴登-符騰堡，但

on a federal level that almost, you know, beyond 30%.

在聯邦層級，成績幾乎，你知道的，超過 30%。

And in Germany, in order to be part of the parliament, you need to have more than 5%.

而在德國，要進入國會，你需要超過 5%。

So this was a very close call and I think they could have dropped out, they could have dropped out of the regional parliament, the state parliament.

所以這是一次非常驚險的結果，我認為他們差點就出局了，差點就無法進入州議會了。

And although they knew that they were going to lose this, and

I think it's fair to say disastrous result for them shocked them.

我認為可以公平地說，這個災難性的結果讓他們震驚。

You know, you could tell the aftermath in Berlin when they all meet up and say, this is the lesson learned from this election.

你知道的，你可以從柏林之後的氣氛看得出來，他們聚在一起說，這是這次選舉學到的教訓。

他們就想說，好吧，這真是苦澀。

Nothing positive except for we need to analyze it.

沒有什麼正面的，除了我們需要好好分析一下。

But the, the background is the voters that usually reliably voted for the SPD just no longer vote for the spd.

但，但背景是，那些通常會穩定投給SPD的選民，現在已經不再投給SPD了。

And it's, it seems to be unclear to many voters why they should vote for the spd.

而且，對很多選民來說，似乎不清楚為什麼他們應該投給SPD。

They need to sharpen their profile, but at the same time they're part of the government.

他們需要讓自己的定位更清晰，但同時他們又是政府的一部分。

And how do you sharpen your profile against the party that you're governing with?

你要怎麼在你正在執政的政黨面前，讓自己的定位更清晰呢？

So Julia, who benefited in Baden Wurttemberg, also from the sort of Democrats not having a clear cut profile at the moment, we've also seen it in the flow of voters moving from one party to the other.

所以，在巴登-符騰堡受益的Julia，也是因為民主黨目前沒有一個明確的定位，我們也看到了選民在不同政黨間流動的情況。

A lot of SPD Social Democratic voters ended up voting for the Greens.

很多SPD的社民黨選民最後都投給了綠黨。

Now might not be that surprising, but in Baden Wurtenberg, the Greens are a little special.

這或許沒什麼好意外的，但在巴登-符騰堡，綠黨有點特別。

They are more pragmatic, we could also say more conservative than the Greens at the federal level.

他們比較務實，也可以說比聯邦層級的綠黨還要保守一些。

They have been very focused on ensuring that the economy keeps going and trying to strike a balance between the economic strength and sure, ensuring environmental protection, but

他們非常專注於確保經濟持續發展，並試圖在經濟實力與確保環境保護之間取得平衡，但

maintaining jobs in an industry which is the car industry, which is carbon intensive.

維持汽車產業的就業，而這個產業是碳密集型的。

But what I think was important to many voters is that they also saw how irrelevant the Social Democrats were becoming in the state.

但我想對許多選民來說，重要的是他們也看到了社民黨在這個州變得越來越無關緊要。

And also, on the other hand, it was a head to head race in the end between the Greens and the Conservatives.

而且，最後綠黨和保守黨之間是一場勢均力敵的競爭。

And possibly a lot of Social Democrats thought between those two, maybe I'll shift my vote to the Greens to try to get them in the lead and leave the regional government with a party that is closer to their beliefs possibly than the conservatives.

可能很多社民黨人認為，在這兩者之間，也許我會把票轉投給綠黨，讓他們領先，讓地方政府由一個可能比保守黨更貼近他們信仰的政黨來執政。

But that certainly does show that the Social Democrats don't really have a strong platform, even with voters who have been loyal to them for many, many years.

不過這確實顯示了社民黨並沒有一個強而有力的政見，即使是對那些多年來一直忠於他們的選民。

And we'll get to why that matters for the national government in a.

我們稍後會談到這對中央政府有什麼影響。

Also, what happened in Baden Wurtemberg was that like in many or most regional elections here in Germany, this was an election campaign that focused on the top candidate and his charisma.

而且，在巴登-符騰堡發生的事是，就像德國許多或大多數的區域選舉一樣，這是一場聚焦在首席候選人及其個人魅力的競選活動。

This is not something that German voters necessarily are used to as much as the U.S. voters.

這不是德國選民習慣的模式，不像美國選民那麼習慣。

You don't normally have the opportunity to vote for one candidate.

你平常沒有機會投票給某個特定的候選人。

You vote for the party that then nominates the candidate.

你投票給政黨，然後由政黨提名候選人。

A candidate from the Green Party, who also is somebody who we have known for a very long time, used to be the head of the Greens.

一位綠黨的候選人，他也是我們認識很久的人，曾經是綠黨的黨魁。

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壓力山大！梅爾茲能帶領德國度過2026年嗎？ | 柏林簡報Podcast (Under pressure: Can Merz steer Germany through 2026? | Berlin Briefing Podcast)

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