Name: 美、以伊朗戰爭目標分歧？費裡德解讀！ (US & Israel have separate agendas for Iran war | Fareed's Take)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T23:05:16.000Z
Duration: 9 min 40 s

透過爵士即興演奏來達成政治變革。

That is how the respected scholar of Iran, Karim Sajdapur, described the Trump administration's strategy in the war it has initiated with Iran.

這就是伊朗備受尊敬的學者 Karim Sajdapur，對川普政府在對伊朗發動的戰爭中所採取的策略所做的描述。

情態副詞

Sadly, it's the most accurate description of the scattered, shifting and uncertain approach that emanates from Washington these days.

令人遺憾的是，這也是對華盛頓現今來自的零散、變動且不確定的方法的精確描述。

The president launched this war, exhorting the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

總統發動了這場戰爭，鼓勵伊朗人民推翻他們的政府。

Perhaps he had assumed that the regime would collapse instantly, but

或許他以為政權會立刻垮臺，但是

when it didn't, in a day or two, he changed course.

當政權沒有垮臺，一兩天後，他改變了方向。

He began musing about dealing with potential leaders within the regime and praising the US Intervention in Venezuela as the model to be followed.

他開始思考如何與政權內部的潛在領導人打交道，並讚揚美國對委內瑞拉的幹預是應該效仿的模式。

Perfect, quote, unquote, precisely because, far from regime change, it only involved the arrest of two people.

完美，引號引號，正是因為，這與政治變革完全無關，只涉及逮捕兩個人。

Pete Hegset specifically denied that this was a regime change war, as did his senior aide, Avrish Kobe.

Pete Hegset 明確否認這是一場政治變革戰爭，他的高級助手 Avrish Kobe 也是如此。

Both said the goal was merely to degrade Iran's military forces, many of which had been quote, unquote, obliterated last June in a 12 day bombing attack that included the use of stealth bombers.

兩人皆表示，目標僅是削弱伊朗的軍事力量，其中許多力量在去年六月的一場為期 12 天的轟炸中，被引述為「被摧毀」，轟炸行動還包括了匿蹤轟炸機的使用。

But then, in a new twist, Trump reached out to Kurdish leaders in Iran and Iraq, promising them support if they would join the fight, presumably not to degrade Iran's military power, but

但接著，情況出現了新的轉折，川普聯繫了伊朗和伊拉克的庫德族領導人，承諾如果他們加入戰鬥，將會給予支持，這似乎不是為了削弱伊朗的軍事力量，而是

to topple the government in Tehran, maybe even change Iran's borders.

為了推翻德黑蘭的政府，甚至可能改變伊朗的邊界。

This weekend, however, the president backpedaled on this plan.

然而，本週末，總統對這個計畫退縮了。

Trump has also now proclaimed that there won't be a deal without unconditional surrender from Iran.

川普現在也宣稱，沒有伊朗無條件投降就不會有協議。

So the goal isn't regime change, except when it is.

所以目標不是政治變革，除非是。

The most dangerous element of this war, however, is not that the lead actor is improvising like a saxophone player.

然而，這場戰爭最危險的元素，並不是主要演員像薩克斯風手一樣即興演奏。

It is that the two countries waging the war have separate and perhaps incompatible agendas.

而是發動戰爭的兩個國家，有著各自獨立且可能不相容的議程。

For Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, the war is clearly about destroying the Islamic Republic.

對於以色列總理班傑明·納坦雅胡來說，這場戰爭顯然是為了摧毀伊斯蘭共和國。

In a video he released, he acknowledged that this war was the culmination of a 40 year old dream.

在他發布的一段影片中，他承認這場戰爭是他 40 年夢想的實現。

Israel's military strategy has been focused, brilliantly implemented and aligned with their goal.

以色列的軍事策略一直很專注，執行得很出色，而且與他們的目標一致。

The Israeli strikes are decapitating Iran's leadership, destroying its military forces, striking its leadership compounds, even hitting police facilities.

以色列的打擊正在斬斷伊朗的領導層，摧毀其軍事力量，攻擊其領導人住所，甚至打擊警察設施。

It is, as the Wall Street Journal reported, methodically destroying Iran's police state, leaving the regime ripe for a collapse.

正如《華爾街日報》所報導的，這是在有條不紊地摧毀伊朗的警察國家，讓這個政府瀕臨崩潰。

And on the current trajectory, Israel might well succeed in its objective.

按照目前的軌跡，以色列很可能會達成其目標。

And that will likely result in a power vacuum in the country, which could invite revolt, but

這很可能會導致該國出現權力真空，可能會引發起義，但

will almost certainly result in a civil war.

Keep in mind, whoever may seek power, this regime will fight back.

請記住，無論誰尋求權力，這個政權都會反擊。

The appropriate analogy here is Syria, a country that was mired in a civil war for more than A decade.

這裡適當的比喻是敘利亞，一個陷入了十多年內戰的國家。

With hundreds of thousands dead and millions of refugees, Iran is a country that could easily explode.

伊朗有數十萬人死亡，數百萬難民，這個國家很容易爆炸。

As Tom Friedman has written, it's filled with ethnic groups, Kurds, Armenians, Azeris with ties to neighboring countries.

正如湯姆·弗裡德曼所寫的，它充滿了各種族群，庫德族、亞美尼亞人、亞塞拜然人，他們與鄰國有聯繫。

But as history demonstrates, from the Balkans to Iraq, when order collapses and a power vacuum develops, people retreat to their tribal groups and lose trust in others.

但歷史告訴我們，從巴爾幹半島到伊拉克，當秩序崩潰、權力真空出現時，人們會退縮到自己的部落群體，不再信任他人。

What would fuel this war is the fact that Iran's government has a vast cadre of dedicated soldiers, armed to the teeth, who will fight against any new government or group.

讓這場戰爭火上加油的，是伊朗政府擁有一大批忠誠的阿兵哥，全副武裝，他們會對抗任何新的政府或團體。

Its Revolutionary Guard is estimated to be almost 200,000 people strong, with an additional paramilitary force, the Basij, of several hundreds of thousands.

據估計，其革命衛隊約有二十萬人，還有數十萬的準軍事部隊巴斯基。

And then there's the regular armed forces, which is around 4.

然後還有正規軍，大約有四萬人。

Just as Saddam Hussein's army melted away after the American invasion, and

就像薩達姆·海珊的軍隊在美國入侵後瓦解，

then much of it reappeared as an insurgency, so too, one could imagine the IRGC fighting in different garbs to deny any new government the ability to control the country.

然後其中大部分又以叛亂的形式出現一樣，我們也可以想像革命衛隊會穿著不同的服裝作戰，阻止任何新政府控制國家。

In Libya, more than 14 years after Gaddafi fell, there is still no one group that controls the entire country.

在利比亞，格達費垮臺十多年後，仍然沒有一個團體能控制整個國家。

It's much easier to destroy a state than to rebuild one.

摧毀一個國家比重建它容易得多。

For Israel, this is an acceptable outcome.

對以色列來說，這是個可以接受的結果。

And if that produces chaos in Iran, so be it.

如果這會導致伊朗陷入混亂，那就隨它去吧。

The Syrian civil war actually improved Israel's security because it did not face a major Arab state dedicated to fighting it anymore.

敘利亞內戰實際上改善了以色列的安全，因為它不再面臨一個致力於對抗它的主要阿拉伯國家。

But an Iranian civil war is not in America's interests, and

但伊朗發生內戰不符合美國的利益，

it's not in the interests of America's closest Arab allies, who depend on the region being stable and predictable so that oil, goods, money and people can flow freely and easily through it.

也不符合美國最親密的阿拉伯盟友的利益，他們依賴該地區穩定且可預測，以便石油、貨物、金錢和人民能夠自由順暢地流通。

Washington needs to find a way to ensure that it secures the gains it has made in this war.

華盛頓需要找到一種方法，確保它能鞏固在這場戰爭中取得的成果。

A disarmed and defanged Iran, but without pushing the country into civil war.

一個解除武裝、失去威脅的伊朗，但同時又不會將國家推向內戰。

There are still ways to bolster the achievements and close out this war.

仍有一些方法可以鞏固這些成就並結束這場戰爭。

As usual, Qatar could play a useful role as an intermediary.

像往常一樣，卡達可以扮演有用的中間人角色。

At some point, this war will reach a tipping point and no one will be able to control the spillover.

總有一天，這場戰爭會達到一個臨界點，屆時沒有人能控制其外溢效應。

Let's get straight to it with Jake Sullivan.

我們直接來聽聽 Jake Sullivan 的分析。

He was one of the key negotiators of the Obama administration nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 that Trump pulled out of.

他是 2015 年歐巴馬政府與伊朗簽訂核子協議的關鍵談判代表之一，後來川普退出了這項協議。

More recently, he served as President Biden's National Security adviser.

最近，他擔任拜登總統的國家安全顧問。

He is also the co host of a terrific new podcast called the Long Game.

他也是一個很棒的新Podcast「The Long Game」的共同主持人。

When you look at the situation right now, put yourself back in the White House and in the Situation Room, what are you seeing that that encourages you, or what are you seeing that worries you?

Farid，當你看看現在的局勢，設身處地回到白宮和情勢室，你看到了什麼讓你感到鼓舞，或者又看到了什麼讓你擔心？

Well, look, Farid, on the encouraging side, the US Military is just simply remarkable.

嗯，Farid，就鼓舞人心的部分來說，美國軍隊實在太傑出了。

It's remarkable at being able to achieve tactical objectives, to execute operations with skill, professionalism, and courage.

他們在達成戰術目標、以技巧、專業和勇氣執行任務方面，都非常出色。

That has been proven out here over the course of the past week.

這在過去一週的實際情況中已經被證明瞭。

But the discouraging part is we are asking the US Military to put itself in harm's way, and

但令人沮喪的是，我們要求美軍冒險犯難，而且

we've already lost six service members pointed towards a completely unclear objective.

我們已經有六名軍人為了完全不確定的目標而犧牲。

The administration has not been able to say with any clarity whatsoever what the ultimate goal of this war is.

政府一直無法清楚說明這場戰爭的最終目標是什麼。

And in fact, they've given perhaps a dozen different explanations, shifting by the hour, by the day.

事實上，他們給了大概十幾種不同的解釋，每小時、每天都在變動。

And here, a week into the war, to have that level of muddiness, that muddle, I think, is a huge challenge because it suggests that this war got launched without being fully thought through, and

而戰爭已經進行了一週，卻還有這麼大的模糊不清，我認為這是一個巨大的挑戰，因為這暗示著這場戰爭在沒有經過充分思考的情況下就被發動了，而且

that the end of this war is something that we have no kind of core concept as to what it will bring or how the President will ultimately come out and say, okay, I'm done.

這場戰爭的結局，我們對它會帶來什麼，或者總統最終會如何說「好了，我結束了」並沒有任何核心概念。

And that leaves us in an extremely precarious position.

這讓我們處於一個極度危險的境地。

It really has widened in a way that, frankly, is greater than I would have guessed.

坦白說，它的擴大程度比我預期的還要大。

I mean, these are pinprick strikes, but they are affecting commerce.

我的意思是，這些是小規模的攻擊，但它們正在影響商業。

In the FTSE that this is the largest disruption in oil production and transport in history.

在 FTSE 報導，這是史上對石油生產和運輸最大的幹擾。

You still have very, very strong contacts with the rulers of the Gulf and other Arab countries.

你仍然和波斯灣及其他阿拉伯國家的統治者有非常、非常緊密的聯繫。

Look, the level of concern across the region, and

聽著，整個地區的擔憂程度，而且

you're right, I do speak with many people there on a daily basis, is sky high.

你說得對，我確實每天都和那裡許多人交談，已經高到不行了。

But what these folks tell me is this was anticipated in a way, maybe not as broad, but

但這些人告訴我的是，這在某種程度上是可以預期的，也許沒有這麼廣泛，但

Why put yourself in the shoes of the Iranian regime?

為什麼要站在伊朗政權的角度思考？

You're getting pummeled by the US And Israel.

你正受到美國和以色列的猛烈攻擊。

Your best option, from their perspective, is to try to disrupt energy flows, to hit technology, to hit tourism, to hit finance.

從他們的角度來看，你最好的選擇是試圖擾亂能源供應，打擊科技、旅遊和金融業。

And they're selecting their targets across multiple countries very clearly to achieve the result of imposing greater and greater economic pain on the entire world and on the United States.

他們非常清楚地選擇了多個國家的目標，目的是對全世界和美國施加越來越大的經濟壓力。

With a goal to try to hasten the end of this war?

是為了加速這場戰爭的結束嗎？

Because the sooner this war ends, from their perspective, the better in terms of their ability to survive and to reconsolidate power.

因為從他們的角度來看，戰爭越早結束，他們就越能生存下來並鞏固權力。

So at the moment, this is basically a race between the US Trying to impose and Israel trying to impose as much damage as possible.

所以目前，這基本上是一場美國和以色列之間爭取造成最大損害的競賽。

And I thought your opening comments were spot on in what Israel is trying to achieve here and the Iranian regime trying to raise the price and the costs as high as possible.

而且我認為你開頭的評論非常精準地指出了以色列在這裡想達成的目標，以及伊朗政府想盡可能提高價格和成本。

Gas prices, for example, have jumped dramatically just in the last week and promised to go even higher.

舉例來說，光是上週汽油價格就大幅飆漲，而且預計還會更高。

And this is all part of the strategy of a much weaker opponent playing the hand that they have.

這一切都是一個較弱的對手運用其手中牌的策略一部分。

And that is something that the administration should have anticipated coming into it.

這是政府在開始之前就應該預料到的。

It seems to me if you launch a kind of existential war against Iran, don't be surprised if they have an existential response, which is, you know, we're just going to blow up everything we can because this is regime survival for us.

在我看來，如果你對伊朗發動一場關乎存亡的戰爭，那麼當他們做出關乎存亡的回應時，你就不該感到驚訝，也就是我們會盡可能摧毀一切，因為這關乎我們政府的存亡。