Name: 摩根大通經濟學家Sajjid Chinoy 談伊朗衝突延續對印度最大的威脅！ (JPMorgan Economist Sajjid Chinoy on India’s Biggest Dangers from an Extended Iran Conflict)
Uploaded: 2026-03-06T21:35:36.000Z
Duration: 8 min 11 s

I mean, given what we're seeing in the markets right now, a reassessment of risk and perhaps this war could be longer than you think.

我是說，考量到我們現在在市場上看到的，風險的重新評估，還有這場衝突可能比你想像的還要長。

I think there's enough buffers that the global economy has to get through a week or two weeks.

我認為全球經濟有足夠的緩衝，可以撐過一兩週。

If this were to go on for weeks and months, then of course it represents a big macro shock.

如果這持續數週或數月，那當然就會是個大宏觀衝擊。

I think the key constraint in the near term or the binding constraint is going to be storage facilities in each of these oil producers.

我認為短期內的關鍵限制，或是緊縮限制，將會是每個石油生產國的儲存設施。

It's because once you hit the storage constraint, that production begins to shut down.

因為一旦達到儲存限制，生產就會開始關閉。

And then when production shuts down, then you have a longer impact on higher global oil prices.

然後當生產關閉，就會對更高的全球油價產生更長遠的影響。

We shouldn't forget that before the conflict started, the crude market was in a structural excess supply.

我們別忘了，在衝突開始之前，原油市場就已經是結構性供應過剩了。

Our estimate was crude would go to $60 or below this year in an environment where growth is quite strong.

我們的估計是，在經濟成長相當強勁的環境下，今年原油價格會跌到 60 美元或更低。

So we're seeing a large geopolitical risk premium.

所以我們看到了一個很大的地緣政治風險溢價。

And so if this were to abate in a few weeks, even, we expect by the second half of the year, crude goes back the gravitational forces again back to 60 or 65.

所以，即使這情況在幾週內消退，我們預計到下半年，原油會再次回到重力作用，回到 60 或 65。

So the duration, the key here is how long will this continue in the medium term and more importantly in the near term when the storage become a binding constraint in different countries.

所以持續時間，這裡的關鍵是，中期會持續多久，而更重要的是，短期內儲存設施在不同國家成為緊縮限制時會持續多久。

For some countries it's four days, for some countries it's 15 days.

有些國家是四天，有些國家是 15 天。

This could become nonlinear quite quickly.

Trump has already said four to five weeks.

I mean, at what stage, at what duration would you be worried?

我是說，在什麼階段、什麼持續時間會讓你擔心？

I'd worry if we go beyond two weeks from a.

如果超過兩週，我就會開始擔心了。

Purely from a market, from an oil price market.

純粹從市場、從油價市場來看。

So this is going to present a shock to the region for sure.

所以這肯定會對該區域造成衝擊。

You know, in terms of remittances, in terms of, you know, tourism.

你知道，就匯款、就旅遊方面而言。

The question is, does this proliferate to the broader economy and the transmission mechanism from the Middle east to the global economy is oil prices.

問題是，這會不會擴散到更廣泛的經濟，以及從中東到全球經濟的傳輸機制就是油價。

So 15 day, you know, 15 days from now, if there is no let up in things and you start getting very sharp increases in production cuts, then the lingering effect on oil prices even beyond when this conflict ends will be longer.

所以，如果十五天後，情況沒有緩和，而且你開始看到生產量大幅削減，那麼即使在這場衝突結束後，對油價的持續影響也會更長遠。

And I think therefore the next two or three weeks becomes really crucial.

我認為是以接下來的兩到三週變得非常關鍵。

You talk about how it depends on countries and the buffers that they have.

你提到這取決於各國以及他們擁有的緩衝。

What would it take for this to impact the world, for it to be, to be leading to a global inflation issue?

什麼情況下會影響到全世界，導致全球通膨問題？

Yeah, I think that will take, you know, crude going up into triple digits and it's not just going up on impact, right?

是的，我認為那需要，你知道，原油價格漲到三位數，而且不只是因為衝擊而上漲，對吧？

I think the key is it's not so much the price, it's the price times how long it stays there.

我認為關鍵在於，價格本身不是最重要的，而是價格乘以它停留的時間。

If it stays there for a week, week, the world can get through this.

如果只停留一週，全世界都能撐過去。

If it stays there for several months, then there are different impacts.

如果停留數月，那影響就不同了。

First is you get a purchasing power squeeze on households because inflation will go up and then central banks would be much less inclined to look through the shock because it won't be a matter of a few days or a few weeks.

首先，家戶的購買力會被擠壓，因為通膨會上升，然後央行也不太可能忽視這個衝擊，因為這就不會是幾天或幾週的問題了。

They'll worry that this will affect inflation expectations.

他們會擔心這會影響通膨預期。

So I think, you know, once you get past a few weeks of oil remains elevated for several weeks or months, then we get into this having an impact on global growth.

所以我認為，你知道，一旦我們度過了幾週，油價持續數週或數月居高不下，那麼這就會開始影響全球經濟成長。

The good thing about Asia cinder where we're sitting is the starting points are quite favorable.

我們現在所處的亞洲地區，好消息是起點相當有利。

Inflation in this region has been very benign, right?

這個地區的通膨一直都很溫和，對吧？

Almost too benign in some countries that core inflation is too low, reflecting slack in the region.

有些國家的通膨甚至溫和到核心通膨太低，反映了該地區的鬆弛。

Part of this is because Chinese disinflationary forces in Asia now that's a good thing because when inflation is much below target, central banks have a little bit of room to work with before crude pushes inflation up a B.

其中一部分是因為亞洲現在有中國的通縮力量，這其實是好事，因為當通膨遠低於目標時，央行在原油推升通膨之前，還有一些操作空間。

Even current accounts and external imbalances, which is the other area this will impact, right?

甚至經常帳戶和外部失衡，這是另一個會受影響的領域，對吧？

If you're a current account surplus kind of account deficit country, are in much better shape.

如果你是經常帳戶盈餘或赤字國家，狀況會好得多。

You look at the North Asian economies, Korea's and Taiwan's, they've had surging tech exports, right?

你看看北亞經濟體，韓國和臺灣，它們的科技出口激增，對吧？

So the current account surplus is very large.

If it means higher net crude imports, means higher LNG imports, you've got buffers to work with.

如果這意味著更高的淨原油進口，意味著更高的液化天然氣進口，你就有緩衝可以運用。

India and Indonesia, both current account deficit economies.

印度和印尼，都是經常帳戶赤字經濟體。

India's current account deficit less than 1% of GDP.

印度經常帳戶赤字不到GDP的1%。

So the starting points at least for Asia, both from external imbalances and inflation is quite favorable.

所以至少對亞洲來說，從外部失衡和通膨來看，起點都相當有利。

Inflation is benign precisely because oil has been pretty cheap.

通膨溫和，正是因為油價一直相當便宜。

And you talk about the buffer, how much buffer?

If oil remains sustained at 90 bucks a barrel, which is possible, of course that's going to matter.

如果油價持續維持在每桶90美元，這當然是可能的，那將會產生影響。

But I think inflation has been benign beyond just oil pricing.

但我認為通膨溫和不只跟油價有關。

The second is on goods prices, fine goods prices.

二是商品價格，也就是精緻商品的價格。

China has imposed a large disinflationary impact on the rest of the region.

中國對該區域其他地區產生了巨大的通縮影響。

And the fact is many of these Asian economies have not caught up to their pre pandemic but which means they're slack.

事實上，許多亞洲經濟體尚未恢復到疫情前的水準，這意味著它們的經濟處於閒置狀態。

And that's meant inflation has been has been low.

But you're right, if oil is at 90 for several weeks and months.

但你說得對，如果油價在數週或數月內維持在90美元。

Of course we have a problem, but we've got a long way to go before we get there.

當然我們會遇到問題，但我們離那一步還有很長的路要走。

And China, how far can China provide that buffer?

中國，中國能提供多少緩衝呢？

We know that China has enough capacity of oil to last, I think weeks.

我們知道中國有足夠的石油產能，我認為可以持續數週。

If it's stable in China, it could be relatively stable for the.

如果中國穩定，亞洲也能相對穩定。

There are buffers that different countries in Asia have.

You know, there's some thought that will Asia be more reliant on Russian crude?

你知道，有人認為亞洲會更依賴俄羅斯的原油嗎？

Will that be a possibility going forward if physical crude can't move from the Strait foremost towards Asia?

如果實體原油無法從海峽運往亞洲，未來會有這種可能性嗎？

I think the question is for a few weeks you can juggle around the pieces.

我認為問題在於，幾週內你可以調整這些部分。

If those, if this goes beyond a month, then we're talking about meaningful production cuts and countries getting impacted.

如果這超過一個月，那我們就在談論有意義的減產，以及各國受到影響。

So I think the next three or four weeks becomes really important.

所以我認為接下來的兩三週非常重要。

Well, India is a very large oil importer and so yes, mechanically the impact on the current account deficit is large.

嗯，印度是個非常大的石油進口國，所以是的，從帳面上來看，對經常帳赤字的影響很大。

India's current account deficit, a sustainable level, is considered about 2 1/2% of GDP.

印度的經常帳赤字，可持續的水準，大約是 GDP 的 2.5%。

We're going to end this year at below 1% of GDP, number one.

今年底我們會低於 GDP 的 1%，這是第一點。

And most of all, there's a huge stockpile of foreign exchange reserves.

最重要的是，外匯儲備有龐大的庫存。

So I think the broader issue is after 2013, emerging markets have been working systematically to improve macro frameworks.

所以我認為更廣泛的問題是，2013 年之後，新興市場一直在系統性地改善總體經濟框架。

Precisely because we're in this shock prone environment where, you know, one shock hasn't abated and another one's upon us.

沒錯，因為我們正處於這個容易受到衝擊的環境，你知道的，一個衝擊還沒減退，另一個就來了。

And the shock that could come next is a very strong dollar.

而下一個可能來的衝擊，就是非常強勢的美元。

We're already seeing some unraveling of the Asian currency.

我們已經看到亞洲貨幣有些鬆動的跡象。

We've had central banks having to step in, intervene and prop up their own currencies.

我們看到各國央行不得不介入、幹預並支撐各自的貨幣。

再說一次，這個區域是有外匯儲備的。

But the worry, as you said, is if this goes on for longer and you get correlated shocks.

但正如你所說的，擔憂之處在於，如果這種情況持續下去，而且你又遇到連鎖的衝擊。

Crude goes up, there's uncertainty, risk of inflation, gold goes up because many countries import gold as well.

原油上漲，就會有不確定性、通膨的風險，黃金也會上漲，因為很多國家也進口黃金。

And both are up, both are up and both affect the current accounts of if you're a current account deficit economy like India, it affects your current account and then you're relying on capital flows to finance the current account.

兩者都上漲，都會影響到經常帳戶，如果你是像印度那樣的經常帳戶赤字經濟體，這會影響你的經常帳戶，然後你就會依賴資金流入來為經常帳戶融資。

But if the dollar is stronger, then those capital flows are also questionable.

但如果美元走強，那麼這些資金流入也變得可疑。

So this is where buffers matter and this is where good macro frameworks matter.

所以這就是緩衝很重要的地方，這也是良好的宏觀框架很重要的原因。