Name: 尼泊爾大選為何對印度和中國至關重要？| DW 新聞 (Why Nepal's elections matter to India and China | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-04T17:28:09.000Z
Duration: 11 min 53 s

They're holding an election here in Nepal.

在尼泊爾這裡正在舉行一場選舉。

程度副詞

It's just six months after youth led protests toppled.

這是在青年領導的抗議推翻之後才六個月。

The last government alert seems important.

上一次的政府警報似乎很重要。

The focus of campaigns like this one may well be domestic, but

像這樣的選舉活動，重點可能在國內，但是

Nepal's two massive neighbors, India and China, will be watching closely for India's hegemony.

尼泊爾的兩個龐大鄰國，印度和中國，都會密切關注印度的霸權。

I think for Beijing, this relationship continues to serve a very important aspect.

我認為對北京來說，這種關係持續扮演著一個非常重要的方面。

The best the neighbors can do is keep your hands off.

鄰國最好的做法就是撒手不管。

This is Nepal sandwiched between India to the south and China to the north.

這就是尼泊爾夾在南部的印度和北部的中國之間。

相較之下，它兩者都非常狹小。

So why does this election matter so much to the two Asian giants?

那為什麼這次選舉對這兩個亞洲巨頭這麼重要呢？

Why is Nepal caught between the elephant and the dragon?

為什麼尼泊爾會夾在象和龍之間？

Nepal's border with India stretches for more than 1500km.

尼泊爾與印度的邊界綿延超過1500公里。

This is one of the many crossings on this open border between India and Nepal.

這是印度和尼泊爾之間開放邊界上的眾多關口之一。

People from both countries can just walk across, no passports needed, and

兩國人民可以自由通行，不需要護照，

many do to shop for better prices on the other side.

很多人會為了在對岸買到更便宜的東西而來。

Such free movement is not at all common in this part of the world.

在世界的這個角落，這種自由通行一點都不常見。

India has never had a serious rupture with Nepal.

印度和尼泊爾之間從未有過嚴重的破裂。

Unlike other neighbors like Pakistan, Bangladesh and China, India share the same civilization.

不像巴基斯坦、孟加拉和中國等其他鄰國，印度與尼泊爾共享相同的文明。

The Nepalese are vastly predominantly a Hindu country.

尼泊爾人民絕大多數信奉印度教。

We share language commonalities, we share food commonalities.

我們有共同的語言，也有共同的飲食文化。

And in a sense, I mean, isn't Nepal part of South Asia?

而且，從某種意義上來說，尼泊爾不也算是南亞的一部分嗎？

Its position as a buffer between India and China makes Nepal strategically important to India.

尼泊爾夾在印度和中國之間，作為緩衝國，對印度來說具有戰略重要性。

It, in turn, is Nepal's largest trade partner and a source of essential goods to the landlocked country.

反過來，印度是尼泊爾最大的貿易夥伴，也是這個內陸國家必需品的來源。

Mrs. Sushma Swaraj was our external affairs minister.

蘇珊瑪·史瓦拉吉女士是我們的前外交部長。

And she would always tell me that, use the expression elder brother, which is a kind of expression from our part of the world which says that, yes, I'm older, I'm bigger, but, you know, I'm caring.

她總是會跟我說，用「兄長」這個詞，這在我們這個地區是一種說法，意思是，是的，我比較大，我比較強，但你知道，我會照顧你。

And it's not like the big brother from the Western world.

而且這不像西方世界裡那種「大哥哥」。

But within Nepal, that attitude is not always popular.

但在尼泊爾境內，這種態度並不總是受歡迎。

Also, Nepal is, in so many ways under New Delhi's thumb.

而且，尼泊爾在很多方面都受新德里掌控。

Our politicians are compromised, our bureaucracy is compromised.

我們的政客被收買了，我們的官僚體系也被收買了。

There's a kind of a manufacturing of consent going on.

有一種製造共識的過程正在進行。

Things came to a head in 2015 with Indian disapproval of Nepalese constitutional reforms.

到了 2015 年，由於印度不贊成尼泊爾的憲法改革，事情變得更加嚴重。

India imposed an unofficial trade blockade.

印度實施了非官方的貿易封鎖。

This was just a few months after the devastating earthquake of 2015, when Nepal was still struggling to cope.

這發生在 2015 年毀滅性地震的幾個月後，當時尼泊爾仍在努力應對。

It shut Nepal down for lack of fuel and lack of other items, because Nepal is, in that sense, economically landlocked.

它導致尼泊爾因缺乏燃料和其他物資而停擺，因為尼泊爾在那方面是經濟上的內陸國。

That is when the Nepali political class got the guts to reach out to China.

就在那時，尼泊爾的政治階層鼓起勇氣向中國伸出援手。

The decision maker was then Prime Minister K.P. oli.

He's standing this time too, but we'll be coming back to that.

他這次也會參選，但我們之後會再談到這件事。

He made multiple agreements with China soon after that blockade.

在那次封鎖後不久，他與中國簽署了多項協議。

But this was not the beginning of China's interest in Nepal.

但這並非中國對尼泊爾感興趣的開端。

Nepal's border with Tibet runs for about 1,400 km, which has long put it on China's radar.

尼泊爾與西藏的邊界綿延約 1,400 公里，這早已引起中國的注意。

The one prerequisite for Chinese relationship with Kathmandu was do not allow any activism by Tibetan nationalists using Nepali soil and Nepal.

中國與加德滿都建立關係的先決條件是，不允許任何西藏民族主義者利用尼泊爾的土地進行活動。

Kathmandu Valley can never say no to that request from the Chinese, given the overwhelming power of the northern neighbor.

考量到北方鄰國壓倒性的力量，加德滿都谷地永遠無法拒絕中國的這項要求。

Nepal's north does have historic cultural and economic ties to Tibet.

尼泊爾北部確實與西藏有著歷史文化和經濟上的聯繫。

But in the last decade, Chinese investment in the country's infrastructure has taken off, as has political engagement.

但在過去十年，中國對該國基礎設施的投資以及政治參與都蓬勃發展。

It was only until the last decade that we really start to see Chinese officials and Chinese diplomats become more active in engaging with domestic actors across the political landscape in Nepal.

直到最近十年，我們才真正開始看到中國官員和外交官更積極地與尼泊爾國內各政治領域的參與者互動。

And I think that is why New Delhi has become more concerned and alarmed.

我認為這也是為什麼新德里變得更加擔憂和警惕。

Analysts believe China has played a role in brokering coalitions between Nepal's various communist parties to form governments, including one that signed an initial agreement to be part of China's Belt and road initiative in 2017.

分析人士認為，中國在尼泊爾各共產黨之間斡旋組建聯合政府方面發揮了作用，包括在2017年簽署了成為中國「一帶一路」倡議一部分的初步協議。

Oli made that agreement official in 2024.

奧利在2024年正式簽署了該協議。

Given the economic rise and the technological rise of China, Nepal should be open to the north.

鑑於中國的經濟崛起和科技崛起，尼泊爾應該對北方開放。

But that is seen practically as a tilt towards China by New Delhi and New Delhi analysts.

但新德里及其分析人士實際上將此視為一種傾向中國的舉動。

And that is very unfair on a neighbor like Nepal because it keeps Nepal from the agency of doing what is right for its own people.

而且這對像尼泊爾這樣的鄰國來說非常不公平，因為這讓尼泊爾無法自主地為自己的人民做對的事情。

But these investments have also faced controversy within Nepal.

但這些投資在尼泊爾國內也面臨爭議。

The $200 million China funded Pokhara Airport has been mired.

中國資助的 2 億美元博卡拉機場項目一直陷入泥沼。

Corruption scandals in which both Nepali and Chinese officials have been charged.

涉及尼泊爾和中國官員都被指控的腐敗醜聞。

I think that is probably also one of the many reasons why the younger generation in Nepal were slightly more suspicious about Chinese investment.

我認為這也可能是尼泊爾年輕一代對中國投資略感懷疑的眾多原因之一。

The influence of these Chinese investment in cultivating corruptions in the domestic politics in Nepal.

中國投資對尼泊爾國內政治中滋生腐敗的影響。

And I think that has also dampened China's image among the younger generation in Nepal.

我認為這也打擊了中國在尼泊爾年輕一代中的形象。

Which brings us to where Nepal is right now.

這就帶我們來到了尼泊爾現在的處境。

The ballot at this election is offering new youth leadership and the old guard.

這次選舉的選票上，有新的青年領袖和舊勢力。

But is this also a choice between India and China?

但這也是印度和中國之間的選擇嗎？

Since its founding, Nepal has said it does not pick sides, that it is strategically neutral.

尼泊爾自建國以來就表示不選邊站，奉行戰略中立。

Nepal is a country that is probably one of the most non aligned in the world and it should be allowed to remain non aligned.

尼泊爾可能是世界上最不結盟的國家之一，應該讓它保持不結盟。

But different Nepali governments have been accused of biases before the protests in September 2025 forced him to resign.

但不同的尼泊爾政府在 2025 年 9 月的抗議活動迫使他辭職之前，曾被指控有偏袒。

KP 奧利被視為與中國關係密切。

Prime Minister Ali's toppling was a major setback for China's efforts to deepen its inroads into Nepal because it really lost a major partner that is more clearly prioritizing engagement with Beijing than some of his predecessors.

奧利總理的下臺對中國深化在尼泊爾影響力的努力是一大打擊，因為中國失去了一個重要的夥伴，這個夥伴比他的一些前任更明確地將與北京的接觸放在首位。

有些人對他的離去並不感到遺憾。

Obviously, whenever we have had an Oli administration in power, his actions have not always been in favor of India.

顯然，每當奧利政府執政時，他的行動並不總是對印度有利。

When the protest happened and the fact that India welcomed the protest and you know, it was very prompt in engaging with the interim pm.

當抗議發生時，印度歡迎這次抗議，而且你知道，他們很迅速地與臨時總理接觸。

this is part of his campaign, he promises to turn this site into a nearly $600 million industrial park funded by China.

這是他競選活動的一部分，他承諾將這個地方變成一個由中國資助的近 6 億美元的工業園區。

And that's worrying New Delhi because oli's electoral base here in Japa sits right on the border with India.

這讓新德里感到擔憂，因為奧利在這裡的選舉基礎，就緊鄰著印度邊界。

Oli's opponent, Palendra Shah is a 35 year old rapper turned politician who is widely seen as one of the faces of the Gen Z revolution.

奧利的對手，是現年 35 歲的饒舌歌手轉型的政治人物帕倫德拉·沙，他被廣泛視為 Z 世代革命的代表人物之一。

He joined a party that's just four years old.

他加入了一個才成立四年的政黨。

They dropped the industrial park from their election campaign.

他們在選舉活動中，將工業園區的計畫給撤掉了。

Balindra Shah, who is also announced prime ministerial candidate in the upcoming elections and his party, it shows very poorly on them.

巴林德拉·沙，也是即將到來的選舉中，被宣佈的總理候選人，以及他的政黨，這對他們來說，形象非常不好。

To take it out of your manifesto and your agenda means that a new party which is saying we're independent, we're going to be doers.

從你們的政見和議程中拿掉這項，意味著一個新政黨，正在說我們是獨立的，我們將會是行動者。

But to run scared on a geopolitical matter doesn't seem very wise.

但在一個地緣政治議題上，卻因為害怕而退縮，這似乎不太明智。

Youth leaders may intend to distance themselves from Chinese investment after corruption scandals, but

青年領袖們或許打算在爆發貪腐醜聞後，與中國的投資保持距離，但

Beijing is used to playing the long game.

I think it is currently adopting a wait and see, sort of like strategy to kind of like see how whether these youth leaders would actually stick to the same playbook once they took office or become more practical and recalibrate their position once they actually win the election.

我覺得他們現在採取的是一種觀望的策略，看看這些青年領袖們上任後會不會堅持同樣的策略，還是會變得更務實，一旦贏得選舉就調整他們的立場。

But as the deposing of the last government showed, young people here have become political actors even if they're still unknown to Indian policymakers.

但正如推翻上一個政府所顯示的，這裡的年輕人已經成為政治行動者，即使印度政策制定者對他們還不熟悉。

I think there should be more concerted efforts from the Indian side as well to kind of, you know, further develop this relationship and maybe engage more with the youth in that respect.

我認為印度方面也應該付出更多協調的努力，你知道的，進一步發展這種關係，並在這一方面更多地與年輕人互動。

I mean there is, we all know that the number of people, young people migrating from Nepal to other countries has increased exponentially in the last 10 years.

我的意思是，我們都知道，在過去十年裡，從尼泊爾移民到其他國家的人數呈指數級增長。

And much of that migration is not directed towards India.

而且，這些移民中的大部分並不是流向印度。

It's a need China feels it is already well placed to meet.

這是中國覺得自己已經準備好滿足的需求。

A lot of it is about youth unemployment actually.

其中很大一部分實際上是關於青年失業問題。

So if you compare India and China at the end of the day, I believe that Beijing thinks that it still has a lot more leverage in terms of offering job opportunities that can easily incentivize any new leader coming into office in Nepal to actually recalibrate their position.

所以，如果我們比較印度和中國，我認為北京認為他們在提供工作機會方面仍然擁有更大的影響力，這可以輕易地鼓勵任何新上任的尼泊爾領導人調整他們的立場。

After 14 governments in 18 years and a youth led rupture in 2025, everyone wants Nepal to be more stable.

在18年裡經歷了14屆政府，以及2025年青年領導的動盪之後，大家都希望尼泊爾更加穩定。

A new government is unlikely to choose between India and China.

新政府不太可能在印度和中國之間做出選擇。