Name: 川普無法安然脫身！有限度打擊的背後分析 (Trump cannot get away with a limited strike : Analysis)
Uploaded: 2026-02-21T23:06:59.000Z
Duration: 6 min 50 s

Ali Akbar Darini is a researcher at the center for Strategic Studies.

Ali Akbar Darini 是 Strategic Studies 中心的一位研究員。

I'm sure you heard there the statements by Abbas Arakshi saying the US hasn't asked them for zero uranium enrichment.

我相信您聽到了 Abbas Arakshi 的說法，也就是美國並沒有要求他們完全停止 uranium enrichment。

So let me ask the question from this angle.

As far as you can see, does Tehran believe it's had an indication from the US that the US Would consider a deal which allows even a very limited degree of uranium enrichment?

在您看來，Tehran 是否認為美國有釋出訊號，表示美國會考慮一個允許即使是極度有限度的 uranium enrichment 的協議？

There is a possibility of a deal being achieved because Iran has come up with creative solutions, showing flexibility about the level of enrichment, scope of its uranium enrichment program, and, and

有達成協議的可能性，因為 Iran 提出了 creative solutions，在 enrichment 的程度、其 uranium enrichment program 的範圍上展現了彈性，而且

also providing economic incentives to the Trump administration.

也向 Trump administration 提供了 economic incentives。

Trump can boast and tweet that he was able to obtain more concessions from Iran than the Obama administration.

Trump 可以吹噓並發推文說，他從 Iran 獲得了比 Obama administration 更多的 concessions。

What would the more concessions be though?

不過，更多的讓步會是什麼呢？

That doesn't go into missiles or support for allies.

這不涉及飛彈或對盟友的支持。

Of course, you know, Iran's red lines must not be crossed.

當然，你知道，伊朗的紅線不能被跨越。

Iran can agree to a deal that respects Trump's initial red line of no nuclear weapons, but

伊朗可以同意一項尊重川普最初「不發展核武」紅線的協議，但是

伊朗的飛彈計畫、它的盟友，以及

But there is sufficient space for the two sides to maneuver on how to obtain more concessions within that framework.

不過，雙方在該框架內如何爭取更多讓步，仍有足夠的空間可以操作。

So no, but I mean the Obama's deal covered the stopping Iran's nuclear program becoming one for weapons.

所以不行，我的意思是，歐巴馬的協議涵蓋了阻止伊朗的核計畫變成發展核武的計畫。

You said that Iran could offer more concessions.

What would more concessions look like beyond the Obama deal?

除了歐巴馬的協議之外，更多的讓步會是什麼樣子？

This will be, this will be a technical discussion, but

這將會是，這將會是一個技術性的討論，但是

beyond the Obama deal, Iran has provided economic incentives to the Trump administration, including mining, oil and gas industry investment and, and

除了歐巴馬的協議之外，伊朗已經向川普政府提供了經濟誘因，包括礦業、石油和天然氣產業的投資，以及

concessions, economic concessions on that.

This was not under the jcpoa, but Iran has offered that so that a deal is possible.

這不是在JCPOA之下，但伊朗已經提供了這些，讓協議成為可能。

Trump's increasing military threats is undermining the process of negotiations because the influx of unprecedented US Military assets in the region has gone beyond a message of deterrence.

川普日益增加的軍事威脅正在破壞談判進程，因為前所未有的美軍資產湧入該地區，已經超越了威懾的訊息。

Iran looks at that as preparations for war, not deterrence.

伊朗認為這是戰爭準備，而非威懾。

That's why Iran is prepared both for war and a deal.

這就是為什麼伊朗同時為戰爭和協議做好了準備。

Talking about that military buildup by the US So yesterday I spoke with a former US Naval destroyer commander who said the reported do emphasize reported transfers to Iran of, of military hardware from countries like China and Russia along the lines of things like stealth detecting radars, new air defense systems like the HQ9BS and so on.

談到美國的軍事集結，昨天我採訪了一位前美國海軍驅逐艦指揮官，他說據報導，據報導，中國和俄羅斯等國家向伊朗轉讓了軍事硬體，像是能偵測匿蹤的雷達、像HQ9BS這類新型防空系統等等。

Now, he said that doesn't really represent much of a challenge to the U.S.

現在，他說這對美國來說並不是什麼真正的挑戰。

How much of a significant military upgrade has taken place on the Iranian side.

伊朗方面在軍事上進行了多大程度的顯著升級？

Since the June attack on Iran, Iran has made a lot of investment on supersonic missiles and weapons that can kill U.S.

自六月襲擊伊朗以來，伊朗在超音速飛彈和能擊殺美軍艦艇的武器上投入了大量資金，同時也瞄準了美軍基地。

warships and also target U.S. military bases.

He doesn't want U.S. troops to, to return home in body bags.

他不希望美軍，就這樣被送回國。

If he attacks Iran, Iran will make sure that this is going to happen.

如果他攻擊伊朗，伊朗會確保這種情況發生。

Second, he doesn't want a protracted war this time.

第二，他這次不想要一場曠日持久的戰爭。

Iran's military doctrine says it will show massive retaliation.

伊朗的軍事學說指出，他們會展現大規模的報復。

What does massive retaliation in a regional war mean?

區域戰爭中的大規模報復是什麼意思？

Would Iran not limit its attacks only to military bases in the region, but

伊朗會不會不只將攻擊限制在該區域的軍事基地，

might go after other targets, energy targets?

也可能攻擊其他目標，像是能源目標？

If energy targets are hit within Iran, It will be asymmetric tactics.

如果伊朗境內的能源目標被攻擊，這將是戰術不對稱。

All American military assets at sea, in land and on the air will be legitimate targets if Iran is attacked.

如果伊朗遭到攻擊，所有美國在海、陸、空上的軍事資產都將成為合法目標。

Will make sure, is determined to make sure that the US Will pay a very high price beyond Trump's tolerance if it is attacked this time.

會確保，決心確保，如果這次遭到攻擊，美國將付出遠超川普容忍範圍的高昂代價。

For Trump to get away with a limited strike against Iran.

讓川普能夠對伊朗進行有限度的打擊後全身而退。

he has said it, that instilling fear in Tehran may be necessary to compel Tehran to surrender.

他也說了，讓德黑蘭感到恐懼，或許是迫使德黑蘭投降的必要手段。

That's a miscalculation of, you know, Trump's threats does not produce fear in Tehran.

這是一個誤判，你知道的，川普的威脅並不會讓德黑蘭感到恐懼。

It produces more determination to inflict pain and challenge and resist against the US and make sure that the Trump will pay a high price if it, if it decides to attack and fall in Netanyahu's trap of a war with Iran.

反而會激發更多決心，要讓美國付出代價，並且挑戰、抵抗美國，確保如果川普決定攻擊，並且落入納坦雅胡發動與伊朗戰爭的陷阱，川普將付出高昂代價。

Ali Akbar Darini, a researcher at the center for Strategic Studies.

Ali Akbar Darini，Strategic Studies 的研究員。

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