Name: 退役海軍上將揭開美軍伊朗邊境「地獄級」軍事實力！ (Ret. Navy admiral explains 'Dante's Inferno' of US firepower near Iran)
Uploaded: 2026-02-21T21:36:24.000Z
Duration: 9 min 21 s

Tell me about the firepower that we've assembled in the Middle East.

請告訴我們，我們在中東集結了多少火力。

It's also like 1990, Persian Gulf War One.

這也跟1990年的波斯灣戰爭一差不多。

And let's kind of do it from the outside in, if you will, in concentric rings descending like Dante's Inferno.

我們就從外圍開始，一層一層往內看，就像但丁的地獄篇一樣。

On the outer rings are big strategic bombers.

They can come all the way from the United States.

They can operate from other bases, but at distance, inside are the two aircraft carriers.

他們也可以從其他基地運作，但距離很遠，裡面則是兩艘航空母艦。

One you see there on the screen, it's in the northern part of the Indian Ocean.

其中一艘您在畫面上看到的，就在印度洋的北部。

The other one is going to park right against Israel, where you see the word Syria on that chart.

另一艘則停在以色列邊界，就在圖表上看到敘利亞那個地方。

These are 80 combat aircraft each, each with F35s, our most advanced jets, as well as plenty of FNA 18 Hornets.

每艘有80架戰鬥機，包括我們的F35先進戰機，還有很多F/A-18超級大黃蜂。

And then you go inside that and you've got the capacity to launch Tomahawk missiles.

然後裡面則有發射戰斧飛彈的能力。

You can send drones in, you can use cyber.

你們可以派出無人機，可以使用網路攻擊。

And of course, there's land based aircraft, Air Force aircraft at many of those bases you show there.

當然，還有許多基地裡的陸基飛機，空軍的飛機。

So again, think of it like Dante's Inferno descending right in the center of it.

所以，想像一下就像但丁的地獄篇，一路往下到最中心。

At the very bottom is Ayatollah Khamenei.

David Sanger, you know the President well.

You were part of that New York Times group that spent three hours with him in the Oval Office recently.

你是《紐約時報》團隊的一員，最近花了三個小時和他一起在橢圓形辦公室。

所以我問你一個比較特別的問題。

Should the Ayatollah be nervous that the administration just lost the tariff battle in the Supreme Court?

總統政府在最高法院輸了關稅戰，這會讓哈米尼感到緊張嗎？

Well, you can certainly argue that the President is probably feeling right now the first pushback on his powers that he's felt really in the first year of his presidency.

嗯，你當然可以說，總統現在可能感受到他擔任總統第一年以來，首次受到權力的反擊。

For the first time, the courts have sort of come in in a big way and said this is not within the powers of the presidency unless the tariffs that he imposed were not legal.

法院這次算是大動作地介入，說這不在總統權力範圍內，除非他課徵的關稅本來就不合法。

And he may well want to push back by showing that he can operate in an area where the Constitution gives him an enormous amount of leeway.

他可能會想透過展示他在憲法給予他極大彈性的領域裡能夠運作，來進行反擊。

But even here, the interesting question is this would clearly be an act of war.

但即使在這裡，有趣的問題是，這顯然會構成戰爭行為。

I mean, the way you test it is if somebody massed this kind of force off the United States and threatened to conduct this, we would consider that a potential act of war.

我的意思是，測試方式是，如果有人集結這種兵力在美國外海，並威脅要這麼做，我們會認為這是潛在的戰爭行為。

And yet Congress has not issued either an authorization to use military force, as they did in the case of Iraq, or passed a war resolution.

然而國會並沒有像處理伊拉克那樣，授權動用軍力，也沒有通過戰爭決議。

And, you know, what did the President tell us in that interview.

還有，你知道，總統在那個訪問中告訴我們什麼。

Asked whether there were any limits on his power, he said, really, only my own morality.

當被問到他的權力有沒有任何限制時，他說，真的，只有我自己的道德。

Iran is preparing a new draft proposal after nuclear talks with the U.S.

伊朗在與美國進行核談判後，正在準備一份新的草案。

iran's foreign minister is optimistic about a deal.

伊朗外交部長對達成協議感到樂觀。

He says the US has not asked Iran to halt uranium enrichment and Tehran has not offered to suspend it voluntarily.

他說，美國沒有要求伊朗暫停鈾濃縮，德黑蘭也沒有主動提出暫停。

He told Ms. Now they're hoping to hand over the new proposal to Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, soon.

他告訴女士，他們現在希望盡快將新提案交給川普的特使史提夫·維特科夫。

Perhaps in a matter of a week or so, we can start real serious negotiations on the text and come to a conclusion.

也許一週左右，我們就可以開始針對文本進行真正嚴肅的談判並達成結論。

Meanwhile, the president warns that he's considering limited strikes on Iran to pressure the country into a deal.

不過，總統警告說，他正在考慮對伊朗進行有限打擊，以迫使該國達成協議。

The USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group is already in the Mediterranean Sea, heading towards the Middle east to join other US Military assets in the region.

美國雷根號航空母艦打擊群已經在地中海，正朝向中東前進，與該地區其他美國軍事資產會合。

But top Democrats are urging the Trump administration not to take military action without congressional approval.

但民主黨高層敦促川普政府在未獲國會準許前，不要採取軍事行動。

Benham Ben Taliblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the foundation for Defense and Democracies, joins us now.

國防與民主基金會伊朗計畫資深主任 Benham Ben Taliblu 現在加入我們。

First, the optimism you're hearing from Foreign Minister Arachi, at least on the path to substantive negotiations.

首先，你聽到的來自外交部長 Arachi 的樂觀，至少是在實質性談判的道路上。

I read that you see Iran playing the game it has always played.

我讀到你認為伊朗正在玩它一直以來都在玩的遊戲。

I think we have to pay attention to who the real decision makers are in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

我覺得我們要關注伊斯蘭共和國裡真正的決策者是誰。

That's a title meant to be taken rather literally.

這個頭銜的意思就是字面上的意思。

And he hasn't been speaking that much since the end of the 12 Day War with Israel and America.

自從和以色列、美國打完 12 天戰爭後，他其實沒有說太多話。

But he's spoken about maybe 14, 16 times since then.

但從那之後，他大概說了 14、16 次。

And his most recent speech struck a drastically, and

而他最近的演講，我得強調給觀眾聽，語氣跟 Arachi 在 Fox 和你剛提到的 MSNBC 專訪裡說的，有著截然不同的差異。

I want to stress that for the audience, drastically different tone than what Arakchi has said, both in his Fox interview as well as in his MSNBC interview that you just alluded to.

所以，雖然 Arachi 注入了一點點謹慎的樂觀，但我認為達成協議的機率大約是 20%，而且以目前伊斯蘭共和國的態度來看還在下降，即使，舉例來說，濃縮問題沒有被討論，還有很多其他問題依然在分歧，讓美國和伊朗對立，尤其是在這個非常緊張的時刻。

So while Arakshi is injecting a little bit of cautious optimism, I would say the chances of a deal are about 20% and dropping with the Islamic Republic at this rate, even if, for example, enrichment was not discussed, there's a whole host of other issues that do divide and keep apart the US And Iran, especially at this very tense moment.

所以你說，我們聽到的教士的說法，跟我們聽到的外交部長的說法，有很大的對比。

And so you say there's a strong contrast between what we're hearing from the ayatollah and what we're hearing from the foreign minister.

What's the most relevant contrast that you hear from the Supreme Leader.

你聽到的最高領袖，最相關的對比是什麼？

Well, I don't want to get too into the details.

It might sound a bit too theological, but

這聽起來可能有點太神學了，但是

the Supreme Leader of Iran also is an ayatollah, as you mentioned, and

伊朗的最高領袖，就像你剛提到的，也是一位阿亞圖拉，

he does reference Islamic political history, and in particular Shiite political history to justify political moves.

他會引用伊斯蘭政治史，特別是什葉派的政治史來合理化政治行動。

For example, when he authorized nuclear negotiations with President obama back in 2013 under the auspices of the P5.1, he talked about Imam Hassan and he talked about heroic flexibility, needing to show flexibility with your opponents, and

舉例來說，當他在 2013 年，在 P5+1 的名義下授權與歐巴馬總統進行核談判時，他談到了伊瑪目哈桑，以及需要對敵人展現彈性，所謂的「英雄式的彈性」，

that paved the pathway for the 2015 JCPOA deal.

這為 2015 年的 JCPOA 協議鋪平了道路。

But here he's been talking about Imam Hussein, whose epithet, the Master of Martyrs, kind of tells you all you need to know about the direction the Islamic Republic is headed in.

但在這裡，他談論的是伊瑪目海珊，他的稱號「殉道者之王」，大概就說明瞭伊斯蘭共和國的走向。

And it's quite rare also internally, to have military, political and religious elites sing from the same sheet of music.

而且，在內部，軍事、政治和宗教精英們如此意見一致，也是相當罕見的。

And the same sheet of music is that if there's a strike, no matter how limited, Iran will respond in a massive way.

而這個一致的說法就是，如果發生襲擊，無論多麼有限，伊朗都會以大規模的方式回應。

And so you mentioned the JCPOA that President Trump ended in his first term in 2018.

所以你提到了川普總統在 2018 年任內結束的 JCPOA 協議。

And I just want to read a bit of what we learned from that interview from the foreign minister.

我想讀一下我們從外交部長的訪談中學到的一些內容。

We've not offered any suspension and the US has not.

我們沒有提出任何暫停，美國也沒有。

The US Side has not asked for zero enrichment.

What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran's nuclear program, including enrichment, is peaceful and will remain peaceful forever, which would be too similar to the jcpoa, that it would be a complete contrast to what we're hearing from President Trump publicly.

我們現在討論的是如何確保伊朗的核計畫，包括濃縮，是和平的，並且將永遠保持和平，這會跟 JCPOA 太過相似，跟我們從川普總統公開談話中聽到的完全相反。

Is that credible at all, that continuing an enrichment program is part of the conversation?

繼續濃縮計畫是討論的一部分，這聽起來可信嗎？

Well, certainly the challenge for the Islamic Republic right now is how to transpose the reality that they're currently not enriching since the end of the 12 Day War into something that looks like it's a concession for the United States of America.

嗯，當然，伊斯蘭共和國現在面臨的挑戰是如何將他們目前自 12 天戰爭結束以來沒有濃縮的現實，轉化成對美利堅合眾國的讓步。

And that's precisely why America can ask for bigger things, more things, more challenging things, because it's actually taken away enrichment from the Islamic Republicans.

這也正是美國可以要求更大、更多、更具挑戰性的事情的原因，因為它實際上已經從伊斯蘭共和國那裡拿走了濃縮。

It hasn't taken away the capability, AKA the know how.

它並沒有拿走這個技能，也就是「know how」。

But nonetheless, Iran is not currently enriching today.

不過，伊朗目前並沒有在濃縮。

So the Islamic Republic has increasingly, sorry, decreasingly been able to actually threaten to restore enrichment or anything else like that.

所以，伊斯蘭共和國越來越、抱歉，越來越難以真正威脅要恢復濃縮或類似的事情。

And therefore, it's trying to find a way to make Trump pay what he previously got for free.

是以，它正試圖找到一種方法，讓川普為他以前免費得到的一切付出代價。

And that gets at the heart of the matter of enrichment in this agreement.

這就觸及了協議中濃縮問題的核心。

Yeah, the USS Gerald Ford, that carrier strike group, is in the Mediterranean.

是的，美國的福特號航空母艦（USS Gerald Ford）打擊群正在地中海。

Of course, the Abraham Lincoln has been there for some time.

當然，林肯號航空母艦（Abraham Lincoln）在那裡已經有一段時間了。

You've said that the chance of a deal is 20% and dropping.

你說達成協議的機率是 20%，而且還在下降。

So we know what you believe about the potential for a military strike.

所以我們知道你對軍事打擊的可能性有什麼看法。

What are the indicators from Iran that they believe that a military strike is coming?

伊朗有哪些跡象顯示他們認為軍事打擊即將來臨？

Well, it's actually very interesting that both America and Iran continue to talk about being interested in negotiations, but

嗯，有趣的是，美國和伊朗都持續表示有興趣進行談判，但是

also continue to do things physically that tell you that they're getting ready for a strike.

同時也持續採取實際行動，告訴大家他們正準備迎接打擊。

The Islamic Republic, for example, continues to build back better when it comes to its ballistic missile program.

例如，伊斯蘭共和國在彈道飛彈計畫上持續「做得更好」。

We know that that's really the spinal cord of its deterrence at this point in time.

我們知道這確實是他們現階段嚇阻的脊椎。

It's the long pole of the regime's security strategy.

這是政權安全策略的關鍵部分。

And then, most importantly, it seems to be hardening some nuclear sites.

而且，最重要的是，他們似乎正在加固一些核子設施。

So in the case that there's a strike, that is not just against missile facilities, but

所以，萬一有軍事打擊，那不只是針對飛彈設施，

actually against what's left of the nuclear program, particularly, you know, a Futurea plant that is believed to be a future enrichment facility or previous research and development labs.

而是針對核子計畫的剩餘部分，特別是，你知道的，一座被認為是未來濃縮設施的 Futurea 工廠，或是之前的研發實驗室。

Those things, per commercial satellite imagery, are being hardened.

這些設施，根據商業衛星影像顯示，正在加固中。

So when you take its tough rhetoric on missiles and then you look at this kind of hardening and dispersal, it looks like both sides are getting ready for exit options from negotiations.

所以當你看到他們對飛彈的強硬言論，再看看這種加固和分散，這看起來就像雙方都在準備退出談判的選項。

Ben Amen Taliblu, thank you so much for being with us.

Ben Amen Taliblu，非常感謝你和我們一起。