Name: 伊朗與美國「嚴肅討論」中，軍事威脅逼近！BBC News (Iran in 'serious discussions' with US as military threat looms | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-01T17:13:50.000Z
Duration: 4 min 29 s

Iran's top security official and President Trump have both said their countries are negotiating as concern continues that the US could launch a military attack on Iran.

伊朗最高安全官員和川普總統都表示，兩國正在談判，因為美國可能對伊朗發動軍事攻擊的擔憂持續存在。

情態副詞

Mr. Trump said Tehran was talking seriously to Washington.

川普總統表示，德黑蘭正在認真與華盛頓進行對話。

It comes as a US military fleet is heading towards Iran after Mr.

這是因為，在川普總統威脅要介入阻止該政權對反政府示威者進行致命鎮壓後，一支美國軍艦隊正朝伊朗駛去。

Trump threatened to intervene to stop the regime's deadly crackdown on anti government protesters.

川普總統威脅要介入阻止該政權對反政府示威者進行致命鎮壓。

Several explosions across Iran on Saturday, blamed by the authorities on gas leaks, caused widespread anxiety.

週六，伊朗各地發生了幾起爆炸，當局歸咎於瓦斯洩漏，引起了廣泛的焦慮。

Iran is expected to begin a two day live fire naval exercise on Sunday in the Straits of Hamut.

伊朗預計將於週日在哈姆特海峽開始為期兩天的實彈海軍演習。

Well, let's speak to our correspondent Barbara Plett Usher who's in Doha for us.

好的，我們來連線在多哈的記者 Barbara Plett Usher。

And Barbara, I mean, how are diplomatic talks going at the moment considering this looming prospect of military action?

Barbara，考慮到軍事行動的陰影，目前外交談判的進展如何？

Well, it seems they are happening at some level and there has been some sort of progress based that they're starting from zero, I suppose.

嗯，看來他們在某個層級上正在進行，而且我猜想，基於他們從零開始，已經取得了一些進展。

And this is according to the public statements made on both sides.

What the Iranians actually said was that there was progress towards a framework for negotiations and this would be negotiations over Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

伊朗實際上說的是，在談判框架方面取得了進展，而這將是關於伊朗核計畫和彈道飛彈計畫的談判。

But the content of that we know is disputed because the Americans are making maximalist demands, including they want Iran to end its nuclear program, so end uranium enrichment.

但我們知道內容是有爭議的，因為美國提出了極端的要求，包括希望伊朗終止核計畫，也就是終止鈾濃縮。

And the Iranians continue to say, well, we're not planning to build a bomb and we have the right for peaceful uranium enrichment.

而伊朗方面則持續表示，他們不打算製造核彈，並且擁有和平鈾濃縮的權利。

And crucially, the Americans are also demanding that Iran limit its ballistic missile program.

而且至關重要的是，美國也要求伊朗限制其彈道飛彈計畫。

And there Iran has been very clear that that's a red line that's not going to happen.

而伊朗對此非常明確，表示這是絕不能跨越的紅線。

這對伊朗的國防來說非常關鍵。

So there's some way to go yet before we know whether there can be a deal possible.

所以，在我們知道是否可能達成協議之前，還有很長的路要走。

But at least in public statements it sounds like there has, there has been some kind of movement.

但至少從公開聲明來看，似乎已經有一些進展。

So a lot of this is still being worked out.

所以，很多事情都還在進行中。

How dangerous would it be for Washington to launch some kind of missile attack and therefore the response then from Iran?

華盛頓發動某種飛彈攻擊，以及伊朗隨之而來的反擊，對華盛頓來說會有多危險？

Well, there's a lot of potential for some quite dangerous scenarios and nobody quite knows what the Americans would actually do because they have different options and nobody knows what the result would be.

嗯，情況很有可能變得相當危險，而且沒人確切知道美國人到底會怎麼做，因為他們有很多選項，而且沒人知道結果會怎樣。

Now the Iranians have been quite vocal about saying they would respond swiftly and they would respond quite substantially.

現在伊朗方面一直很強硬地表示，他們會迅速且大規模地反擊。

So it depends on what the Americans would do.

所以這取決於美國人會怎麼做。

They could strike military targets so they could try to hit nuclear program sites, although it's unclear what that would be because they did bomb three of the major sites in June.

他們可能會攻擊軍事目標，像是試圖攻擊核子計畫的設施，不過這點還不清楚，因為他們在六月已經炸毀了三個主要設施。

There's no evidence they've tried to reconstitute the program since then.

沒有證據顯示他們在那之後試圖重組計畫。

They could strike the ballistic missile program.

他們可能會攻擊彈道飛彈計畫。

It's believed that's what Israel wants to happen because those missiles are also pointed at Israel.

據信這就是以色列希望發生的事，因為那些飛彈也指向以色列。

So it could go after the Iran Revolutionary Guard targets.

所以他們可能會針對伊朗革命衛隊的目標下手。

This is the group that has been accused of being behind the protest crackdown, although it's not clear whether that would really change anything.

這就是被指控鎮壓抗議的團體，雖然不確定這是否真的會改變什麼。

它可能會針對領導層目標下手。

Then things get very unclear because nobody knows what would happen if this regime would follow, whether it would be replaced by, let's say, military leaders or who would replace it.

接著情況就變得非常不明朗，因為沒人知道這個政權如果垮臺後會發生什麼，不知道會由誰來取代，像是軍方領導人，或是誰會接替。

And in the worst case scenario, if there was a state collapse, if there was fragmentation, that would trigger greater instability in the region.

而在最糟的情況下，如果國家崩潰、發生分裂，那將會引發該區域更大的不穩定。

That's what America's regional allies are really afraid of.

這就是美國的區域盟友們真正害怕的。

It could actually possibly also the Americans take the Venezuela playbook in terms of using all this firepower, the naval forces that they have amassed in the region to blockade Iran's oil exports, especially those, the sanctions busting ships, and

美國甚至可能參考委內瑞拉的劇本，利用他們在該區域集結的所有火力，也就是海軍力量，來封鎖伊朗的石油出口，特別是那些規避制裁的船隻，然後

just try to grind the regime down that way.

So there are various options and we don't really know what's going to happen because it's still being considered and frankly, we're not quite sure what the goal is here either whether President Trump wants to weaken Iran militarily or whether does he does actually want to topple the regime.

所以有各種選項，我們也不確定接下來會發生什麼，因為這還在考慮中，老實說，我們也不太確定川普總統的目標是什麼，是要在軍事上削弱伊朗，還是他真的想推翻這個政權。

Barbara, thank you for walking us through all of that.

Barbara，謝謝妳為我們詳細說明這一切。

That's Barbara Plet Usher, our correspondent in Doha.

她是Barbara Plett Usher，我們在多哈的記者。