Name: 鉅變解碼：聯準會太快降息，債券投資人恐失魂落魄！| 路透 (Macro Matters: 'Bond investors could take fright' if Fed cuts too quickly | REUTERS)
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T16:59:19.000Z
Duration: 4 min 50 s

情態副詞

The Fed's independence is increasingly in question.

美國聯準會的獨立性越來越受到質疑。

So what does that mean for the wider economy?

那麼，這對整體經濟意味著什麼呢？

This is macro matters and we're talking about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

這裡是總體經濟議題，我們要談論的是美國聯邦準備理事會的獨立性。

President Trump's conflict with the central bank ramped up a gear this week after the Department of Justice opened a federal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell over the renovation of the Fed building.

總統川普與中央銀行之間的衝突本週又升級了，因為美國司法部對主席鮑爾展開聯邦調查，原因是翻修美國聯準會大樓。

And Chair Powell released a video statement saying the investigation was really about his lack of willingness to cut rates as quickly as the President wants.

鮑爾主席發布了一份影片聲明，表示這項調查實際上是因為他沒有像總統期望的那樣快速降息的意願。

James Knightley is ING's chief international economist.

James Knightley 是 ING 的首席國際經濟學家。

James, we expect President Trump to choose a new Fed chair very soon.

James，我們預計總統川普很快就會選出一位新的聯準會主席。

Will the market now see that person's credibility as being in question, whoever they are?

市場現在會認為這位新主席的信譽也會受到質疑嗎，無論是誰？

Well, I think there is certainly that question hanging over the market.

嗯，我認為市場上確實存在這個疑慮。

There is a sense that Donald Trump's pick may well be more inclined to cut rates more quickly and that actually could be detrimental for the US Economy.

有一種感覺是，川普的選擇可能會更傾向於快速降息，而這實際上可能對美國經濟不利。

Because if there is that question of credibility, the Fed's inflation fighting stance, if that is seen as being weakened, that could actually lead to bond investors taking fright and could actually lead to higher longer term borrowing costs, which are actually far more critical for the US Economy.

因為如果聯準會的抗通膨立場信譽受到質疑，被認為減弱了，這可能會讓債券投資人感到恐慌，並導致長期借貸成本上升，而這對美國經濟來說其實更關鍵。

They drive what's happening to corporate borrowing costs.

它們決定了企業借貸成本的走向。

They drive what's happening to mortgage rates.

So this could actually be working somewhat counter to watch what the President actually wants.

所以這實際上可能會與總統真正想要的東西有些背道而馳。

Is it possible Powell could choose to stay on the board?

鮑爾有可能選擇留在理事會嗎？

It is possible because while his role as Chairman of the Fed is, is going to be ending in May and a new replacement will be coming through, his term as a Board of Governor member actually lasts several more years.

有可能，因為雖然他聯準會主席的職位將在五月結束，並且會有一位新任者接替，但他作為理事會成員的任期實際上還有好幾年。

So he could linger around and that could again just cause Donald Trump a few headaches in terms of his efforts to, to drive interest rates significantly lower than they are today.

所以他可以繼續留在這裡，這可能會再次給川普帶來一些頭痛，因為川普正努力想讓利率大幅低於現在的水準。

If the new chair wants to carry out the kind of aggressive cutting that the President wants to see, he does, of course, need to convince the rest of the board, who may be concerned, as you said, that that could lead to higher inflation, higher longer term rates.

如果新任主席想執行總統希望看到的積極降息，他當然需要說服理事會的其他成員，他們可能會擔心，正如你所說，這可能會導致通膨上升、長期利率走高。

So what are the odds of these cuts actually happening, do you think?

那麼你認為這些降息發生的機率有多大？

We've got to remember it is one member, one vote, and

我們必須記住，這是一人一票，

there's a whole range of people on that committee.

這個委員會裡有很多不同的人。

So putting in just one new official is not going to change the debate or change the outcome significantly.

所以只換一位新官員，並不會顯著改變辯論或結果。

That person has to convince a lot of very independently minded officials that what the President says and what the new person, the new chair thinks is right, that's what should happen.

那個人必須說服許多想法獨立的官員，讓他們相信總統和新任主席的想法是正確的，應該照這樣做。

So I think there is this sense that, yep, we'll get a change, but

所以我認為大家會有種感覺，沒錯，會有個改變，但是

does this mean that we're going to get a radically different Fed, and

這是否意味著我們會迎來一個截然不同的聯準會呢？

Is there evidence, James, that nerves around this are leading investors to move out of US Assets and the dollar?

James，有跡象顯示，市場因為擔心這件事，導致投資人正在撤出美國資產和美元嗎？

This is a general sense that this is a risk, but it's not a central case as such.

這是一種普遍的感覺，認為這是一個風險，但它本身並不是一個主要考量。

And as we come back to the point that it is just one member of a broad committee.

而回到我們剛才說的，這只是一個廣泛委員會的一名成員。

So is this going to lead to a radical change?

所以這會導致一個徹底的改變嗎？

It's going to be down to the data and it's going to be the data that continues to drive decision making from the Fed.

這將取決於數據，而且數據將繼續引導美國聯準會的決策。

We believe next week the Supreme Court hears oral arguments over whether the president can fire Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed.

我們相信下週最高法院將就總統是否能解僱美國聯準會理事 Lisa Cook 進行口頭辯論。

How important is that ruling for the markets and economic credibility?

這項裁決對市場和經濟信譽有多重要？

Well, again, it just highlights this, this, this interference, if you like, on what is an independent central bank and this, this effort to try and change the narrative within the Fed.

嗯，這再次凸顯了，如果你願意的話，這種對一個獨立中央銀行的幹預，以及這種試圖改變美國聯準會內部說法的努力。

But again, this is just one extra member.

但同樣的，這只是一位額外的成員。

There's still a broad base feeling within the central bank that actually, you know, inflation is still above target, the economy is still in reasonably good shape, unemployment is low in equity markets at all time highs.

在中央銀行內部仍然有一種廣泛的感覺，認為實際上，你知道，通膨仍然高於目標，經濟仍然處於相當不錯的狀態，失業率很低，股市處於歷史新高。

There's not a great deal to justify driving interest rate costs down to 2% as the Fed, as the, as the chair, sorry, as the president even has demanded.

沒有太多理由可以證明將利率降至 2% 是合理的，就像美國聯準會，就像，就像主席，抱歉，就像總統所要求的。

So I think we still in an environment where the market is really sanguine and just looking for those two rate cuts this year, nothing more.

所以我認為我們仍然處於一個市場非常樂觀的環境，並且只期待今年兩次降息，僅此而已。

Briefly, on another topic, James, we're also expecting the Supreme Court to rule on President Trump's stake tariffs.

簡短地，換個話題，James，我們也預計最高法院將就川普總統的關稅做出裁決。

They could conclude that those are illegal.

他們可能會判定那些是非法的。

如果他們這樣做了，會發生什麼事？

So there's this general sense that about $130 billion of these tariffs could be or could be end up having to be repaid.

所以大家普遍認為，大約有 1300 億美元的關稅可能會被，或者最終可能必須被退還。

But again, I'm a little bit cautious on that because, you know, with the president's ire, you don't want to be a company, you know, being in the firing line of the presidents on that.

不過話說回來，我對這點有點謹慎，因為你知道，總統的怒火，你不會想成為一家公司，你知道，處於總統的砲火之下。

And I think the hoops that you'll have to go through to reclaim the tariffs are going to be quite onerous.

我認為要追回關稅必須經歷的程序會相當繁瑣。

So it may not be that we see that much of the tariffs reclaimed.

所以我們可能不會看到太多關稅被追回。

Moreover, as the president has repeatedly stated this week, tariffs are his favorite word.

此外，正如總統本週一再表示的，關稅是他最喜歡的詞。

Tariffs are here to stay and he will find different ways of applying them.

關稅將會一直存在，他會找到不同的方式來實施它們。

And we are expecting that to come through.

So even if they are knocked back this time, it is not the end of tariffs.

所以即使這次關稅被駁回，這也不是關稅的終點。

And a key plank of the president's strategy, that was James Knightley of ING.

而這也是總統策略的關鍵一環，以上是ING的首席國際經濟學家James Knightley的說法。

Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com.

別忘了你可以在Reuters.com上觀看更多影片。