Name: 世界變得更暴力了嗎？！ (Is The World Getting More Violent?)
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T17:42:57.000Z
Duration: 12 min 57 s

第二類條件句型

Ten years ago, in 2014, we asked if war was over.

十年前，也就是 2014 年，我們曾問戰爭是否已經結束。

Based on long term trends in the last century, it seemed violent conflict was on the decline and the world more peaceful than ever.

根據上個世紀的長期趨勢，暴力衝突似乎正在減少，世界比以往任何時候都更加和平。

情態副詞

Our video began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war between Hamas and Israel and well, a decade later we could start this video exactly the same way.

我們的影片以俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及哈瑪斯與以色列之間的戰爭開頭，嗯，十年後的今天，我們可以用完全相同的方式開始這部影片。

But is the world as a whole more violent today?

但整體而言，今天的世界真的比較暴力嗎？

In a NutShell, we made seven claims in 2014 1.

簡而言之，我們在 2014 年提出了七個論點：1.

我們面臨的衝突死亡人數比以往任何時候都少。

There were almost no more wars between countries.

國家間戰爭幾乎已經不存在了。

大部分的衝突都發生在外國控制的地區，像是殖民國家或蘇聯獨裁統治下的地方。

越來越多內戰透過外交手段結束。

Most conflicts are in areas that were under foreign control, either by colonial states or Soviet dictatorships.

我們正處於歷史上最和平的時期。

所以，讓我們來看看我們的影片表現如何。

首先，我們先來快速瀏覽一下過去十年的衝突。

7 We're in the most peaceful period of history.

那些在2014年還在熾熱燃燒、最致命的衝突，有些已經結束，有些則明顯降溫了。

那麼，讓我們來看看我們的影片

First, let's get an overview of conflicts in the last decade.

Some of the deadliest conflicts that were glowing hot in 2014 have since ended or significantly cooled down.

The war in Afghanistan ended with the victory of the Taliban, while the civil wars in Yemen and Libya are all still ongoing.

阿富汗戰爭以神學士的勝利告終，而葉門和利比亞的內戰仍在持續。

The proto state of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has been wiped out.

在伊拉克和敘利亞的伊斯蘭國（ISIS）的準國家已經被消滅。

And breaking news, the rebels just won the war in Syria last week.

而最新消息是，反叛分子上週贏得了敘利亞的戰爭。

The extremely destructive civil war in South Sudan ended in a fragile peace agreement, despite violence still flaring up in the devastated young country.

南蘇丹極具破壞性的內戰以脆弱的和平協議結束，儘管在這個飽受摧殘的年輕國家中暴力事件仍時有發生。

Sadly, the last decade saw a bunch of new conflicts erupt or old unresolved issues turn violent.

可悲的是，過去十年裡，出現了許多新的衝突，或舊的懸而未決的問題轉為暴力。

One of the main claims of our video 10 years ago was that wars today are not between countries, and

我們十年前的影片中一個主要的論點是，現今的戰爭不是發生在國家之間，而且

這在很大程度上仍然是真實的。

Civil wars are by far the most common type of state based conflict in the world.

內戰是世界上最常見的國家衝突類型。

We'd wager that most of you have never heard about one of the deadliest civil wars in decades, the 2020 Tigray War in Ethiopia.

我們敢打賭，你們大多數人從未聽說過數十年來最致命的內戰之一，也就是2020年衣索比亞的提格雷戰爭。

It ended in 2022 with the victory of the Ethiopian and Eritrean government forces against rebel groups.

這場戰爭在2022年結束，衣索比亞和厄利垂亞政府軍擊敗了反叛組織。

Exact death tolls are unknown, but they may exceed half a million, mostly civilians.

確切的死亡人數不明，但可能超過五十萬，大部分是平民。

Aside from Tigray, a number of new civil wars have broken out since 2014.

除了提格雷，自2014年以來，也爆發了數場新的內戰。

Although new is a bit misleading since the underlying issues were brooding at a smaller scale for a long time.

雖然說「新」有點誤導，因為根本問題其實早已在小規模地醞釀很久了。

The deadliest have been the Sudan civil war, the civil war in Yemen and the civil war in Myanmar.

其中最致命的包括蘇丹內戰、葉門內戰和緬甸內戰。

Multiple nations in Africa like Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Burkina Faso and Mozambique are suffering from Islamist insurgencies that destabilize countries and have cost tens of thousands of civilian lives.

非洲的馬利、奈及利亞、索馬利亞、布吉納法索和莫三比克等多個國家，正遭受伊斯蘭主義叛亂的影響，這些叛亂 destabilize 了國家，並奪走了數萬平民的生命。

Lastly, There are nearly 60 smaller unresolved state based Conflicts around the world, many going on for decades, that are smouldering, but

最後，全球還有將近60場規模較小的懸而未決的國家衝突，許多已經持續數十年，正處於醞釀狀態，

have a relatively low death toll in comparison.

Maybe the worst news is that we've been seeing interstate wars again.

情況或許更糟的是，我們又看到了國家間戰爭的出現。

There was the short lived 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which redrew contested borders.

像是2020年短暫爆發的亞塞拜然和亞美尼亞之間的戰爭，重新劃定了爭議邊界。

Then there's the latest war between Israel and Hamas that turned into a regional crisis.

再來是最近以色列和哈瑪斯之間的戰爭，這場戰爭演變成區域危機。

What is certainly the most disturbing new development is the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

最讓人不安的新發展，絕對是俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭。

It's the first large scale interstate war in 20 years, and

這是二十年來第一場大規模的國家間戰爭，

the first war since World War II where a major power is trying to conquer territory and to subjugate another state.

也是第二次世界大戰以來，第一次有主要強權試圖征服領土並壓制另一個國家。

It followed an eight year conflict that started with the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas.

這場戰爭發生在八年的衝突之後，衝突始於2014年俄羅斯併吞克里米亞以及頓巴斯的戰爭。

Exact casualty rates for the war since 2022 are hard to verify, but

自2022年以來戰爭的確切傷亡人數很難查證，

they go as high as hundreds of thousands.

好的，那關於我們2014年的說法呢？

If we add up the numbers, we see a few things.

如果我們加總數字，會發現一些事情。

Roughly between 2004 and 2014, there were about 350,000 deaths from state based conflicts worldwide.

大約在2004年到2014年間，全球的國家衝突造成了約35萬人死亡。

They were going down from 2014 to 2019 and then rose sharply in 2021.

他們從2014年到2019年呈現下降趨勢，然後在2021年急劇上升。

In total, from 2014 to 2024, we saw about 1.2 million deaths.

總計從2014年到2024年，我們看到大約有120萬人死亡。

If we include all violent conflicts like the Mexican drug war, the number rises to 1.5 million, three times higher than the previous decade.

如果我們把墨西哥毒品戰爭這類所有暴力衝突都算進去，數字會上升到150萬，比前十年高出三倍。

Actually, 2022 had the highest death toll from violent conflict since the rwandan genocide in 1994.

事實上，自1994年盧安達種族滅絕以來，2022年的暴力衝突死亡人數是最高的。

The Tigray War and the war in Ukraine alone were responsible for the majority of lives lost, as both wars involved armies of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, sometimes thrown against entrenched positions in human wave attacks.

光是提格雷戰爭和烏克蘭戰爭就造成了大部分的死亡，因為這兩場戰爭都涉及數十萬阿兵哥的軍隊，有時會以人海戰術對抗堅固的陣地。

So the last three years have been unusually violent.

But if we zoom out a bit more, we can put those numbers into perspective.

但如果我們再稍微拉遠一點看，就能把這些數字放進脈絡裡。

A terrible thing, but nowhere near how bad it can get when the world goes to war.

這是很可怕的事，但離世界大戰時的慘況還差得遠。

In the grand scheme of things, we are still living in relatively peaceful times.

從宏觀來看，我們仍然生活在相對和平的時代。

But the next decade will show if the trend will reverse or if the last few years were an anomaly.

但未來十年將決定這個趨勢是否會逆轉，或者過去幾年只是個例外。

Unfortunately, there have been proper wars between states again, so our prediction on wars between countries didn't hold up.

不過，國家間的戰爭又重新出現了，所以我們對國家間戰爭的預測並沒有實現。

What is as true today as in 2014 is that almost all armed conflicts in the world are in countries that were under foreign occupation in the 20th century, either by colonialism or by the expansive Soviet dictatorship.

今天和 2014 年一樣真實的是，世界上幾乎所有的武裝衝突都發生在 20 世紀曾被外國佔領的國家，這些佔領形式包括殖民統治或擴張性的蘇聯獨裁統治。

Ethnic groups were split apart or forced together by arbitrary borders, resources unequally distributed or power vacuums created, which led to conflicts that are in many cases still unresolved.

族群被任意劃定的邊界分割或強行合併，資源分配不均或權力真空的出現，導致了許多至今仍未解決的衝突。

There have also been no wars between democracies who seem uniquely unwilling to fight each other.

民主國家之間也沒有發生過戰爭，民主國家似乎獨一無二地不願互相開戰。

So compared to the last century, it's still true that war between nations is still an exception rather than the rule.

所以，與上個世紀相比，國家之間的戰爭仍然是例外而非常態，這一點仍然是真實的。

On the other hand, we see fewer civil wars end by diplomacy.

另一方面，我們看到透過外交解決的內戰變少了。

Instead there's an increase in either victories or stalemates.

取而代之的是勝利或僵局的增加。

These often aren't permanent resolutions to the conflict, only pauses in the fighting because the underlying causes haven't been solved.

這些通常不是衝突的永久解決方案，只是暫停戰鬥，因為潛在的原因尚未解決。

For our claim about borders, we can see that most international borders in the world still hold up and are not challenged.

關於我們的邊界主張，我們可以發現世界上大多數國際邊界仍然穩固且未受到挑戰。

But there are still a few dozen territorial disputes in the world, most of them in Africa and Asia.

但世界上仍然有幾十個領土爭議，其中大部分在非洲和亞洲。

Like the border clash between India and China over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh.

像是印度和中國在阿克賽欽和阿魯納恰爾邦的邊界衝突。

China's claim to Taiwan or Venezuela threatening to annex part of Guyana's oil rich province Essequibo.

中國對臺灣的主權主張，或是委內瑞拉威脅要吞併蓋亞那富含石油的埃塞奎博省。

One thing that makes wars so deadly is that they're often supported by external powers.

戰爭之所以如此致命，其中一個原因是它們常常有外部勢力支持。

Many countries are providing support or arming up different sides or factions.

許多國家都在資助或武裝不同的派別或陣營。

Like the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for hegemony, with Iran being the main supporter for the Houthis, Hezbollah or Hamas.

像是沙烏地阿拉伯和伊朗爭奪霸權的競爭，伊朗是葉門胡塞組織、真主黨或哈瑪斯的 主要支持者。

Or in the Ukrainian war, with the west supporting Ukraine, while China, Iran and North Korea support Russia.

又像是烏克蘭戰爭，西方國家支持烏克蘭，而中國、伊朗和北韓則支持俄羅斯。

External powers keeping conflicts alive can also be Islamist groups like ISIS or criminal networks, or even local elites that benefit from their own country being torn apart and effectively prevent conflicts from ending.

讓衝突持續存在的外部勢力，也可能是像伊斯蘭國這樣的伊斯蘭主義團體，或是犯罪網絡，甚至是從自己國家四分五裂中獲益，並有效阻止衝突結束的當地菁英。

The End of the Rules Based World There's a lot of debate among experts about what factors make the world more or less peaceful.

規則基礎世界的終結 專家們對於哪些因素能讓世界更和平或更不和平，有許多爭論。

One of the major reasons the world has seen less conflict was that after the end of the Cold War, many countries expected a sort of rules based world order.

冷戰結束後，許多國家都期待建立一個基於規則的世界秩序，這也是世界衝突減少的一大原因。

But things have been changing in the last few years.

但近幾年來，情況已經在改變。

The world has become multipolar, with new alliances forming and the idea of a rules based world is being challenged.

世界變得多極化，新的聯盟正在形成，而基於規則的世界秩序的想法正受到挑戰。

China's manufacturing capacity is now as big as the US and Europe's.

中國的製造業產能現在和美國及歐洲一樣龐大。

Combined with its massive economic development, a new superpower has risen.

加上其龐大的經濟發展，一個新的超級強權已經崛起。

It's common knowledge that the US spends more on its military than any place in the world.

眾所周知，美國在軍事上的花費比世界上任何地方都多。

But this may no longer reflect the true balance of power.

但這可能不再反映真正的力量平衡。

China doesn't report all of its military spending like the US does, and

中國不像美國那樣報告所有的軍事開支，而且

it gets a lot more done with each equivalent dollar spent.

Recent estimates trying to account for these differences tell us China's effective military budget is now a significant portion of the United States budget.

最近試圖計算這些差異的估計告訴我們，中國的實際軍費預算現在佔美國預算的很大一部分。

And with Russia breaking the taboo of launching the first war effort of conquest by a major power in almost 80 years, Europe has begun the process of rearming.

俄羅斯打破了近80年來大國發動首次征服戰爭的禁忌，歐洲也已開始重新武裝。

It is slow because, well, Europe is slow, but it is happening.

過程很慢，因為，嗯，歐洲本來就很慢，但這確實正在發生。

We're in the transition to a multipolar world again, with different nations and alliances claiming spheres of power they want to dominate.

我們又回到了多極世界的過渡時期，不同的國家和聯盟都在爭奪他們想主導的勢力範圍。

In this climate, tensions and conflicts between states have been rising, even if most of them have not turned into wars yet.

在這種氣候下，國家之間的緊張和衝突一直在加劇，即使其中大多數還沒有演變成戰爭。

The clear answer is no, and the direction we're headed in doesn't seem great.

顯然答案是否定的，而且我們前進的方向似乎不太妙。

But with all the gloom, it's also true that we are still in a peaceful period of world history, and

但儘管充滿了陰鬱，我們仍然處於世界歷史上一個和平時期，

the deaths by war are still at historic lows.

戰爭造成的死亡人數仍處於歷史最低點。