Name: "大多數人不知道經濟即將發生什麼" (“Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Economy”)
Uploaded: 2025-08-09T18:08:26.000Z
Duration: 13 min 13 s

程度副詞

The chairman of the Fed, Jay Paul just sent a warning to the entire economy.

美聯儲主席傑伊-保羅剛剛向整個經濟發出了警告。

情態副詞

He gave a 40-minute interview clarifying what exactly he thinks about the state of the economy.

他接受了長達 40 分鐘的採訪，澄清了他對經濟現狀的具體看法。

轉承詞

And his opinion matters a lot because he is the key person who takes decisions about what interest rates are going to be.

他的意見非常重要，因為他是決定利率走向的關鍵人物。

If he lowers down the interest rates, then that is going to shoot the stock market to the roof because that will make access to the capital much cheaper and a lot of other factors.

如果他降低利率，那麼股市就會一飛沖天，因為這將使獲得資金的成本大大降低，還有很多其他因素。

On the other side, if he increases the interest rates, suddenly your mortgage payments are going to be much more expensive and suddenly you won't be able to afford your dream house because the mortgage payments on that are going to be much higher than you can possibly afford.

另一方面，如果他提高利率，你的按揭付款就會突然變得更加昂貴，你就突然買不起你夢想中的房子了，因為按揭付款會比你所能承受的高得多。

And that's why, let's dive deep into what exactly Jay Paul said and clarify his opinion about the state of the stock market and how that is going to impact the market.

正因如此，讓我們深入探討一下傑伊-保羅究竟說了些什麼，並闡明他對股市現狀的看法，以及這將對市場產生怎樣的影響。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

Remember back in the days just a few months ago, or probably the last or the end of the last year, Jay Paul or the Fed said that we are expecting to lower the interest rates.

還記得就在幾個月前，也可能是去年年底，傑伊-保羅或美聯儲說，我們預計會降低利率。

Now at the end of the last year, the Fed actually lowered down interest rates, why?

去年年底，美聯儲實際上降低了利率，為什麼呢？

Because they were expecting that inflation is going to go down and on the other side, we are expecting a mild recession, which is why it actually makes sense to lower down interest rates because we want to avoid any kind of a recession.

因為他們預計通貨膨脹會下降，而另一方面，我們預計會出現溫和的經濟衰退，這就是為什麼降低利率實際上是有意義的，因為我們希望避免任何形式的經濟衰退。

But the only reason we can do that is when we are confident that prices are stable.

但是，只有當我們確信價格穩定時，我們才能這樣做。

What is the final goal of the Fed at the end of the day?

If we don't have any kind of price stability, there is no business, there is no confidence in the US economy, there is no money going in, there is doubts in the US dollar, which is why this is the first priority.

如果我們沒有任何形式的價格穩定，就不會有生意，就不會對美國經濟有信心，就不會有資金進入，就會對美元產生懷疑，這就是為什麼這是第一要務。

When everybody is employed and everybody is working, so if companies have money to actually build and create those jobs, then the GDP is going to grow.

當每個人都有工作，每個人都在工作時，如果公司有資金來實際建設和創造這些工作崗位，那麼國內生產總值就會增長。

So that is the mentality that the Fed has.

And that was basically the trend starting from the end of the last year.

這基本上是從去年年底開始的趨勢。

And if you look at all the expectations of all economies, when Trump is going to become the president of the United States, he is a pro-business person, which means that he is going to encourage the economy or the Fed to lower down interest rates to further grow the GDP.

如果你看看所有經濟體的所有預期，當特朗普即將成為美國總統時，他是一個親商的人，這意味著他將鼓勵經濟或美聯儲降低利率，以進一步增長國內生產總值。

But what happened at the end of the day, the absolute opposite.

Jay Paul says that the Fed will actually keep the interest rates on hold until there is clarity.

傑伊-保羅說，美聯儲實際上會一直按兵不動，直到情況明朗。

Apparently, it turns out that the Federal Reserve get their news just as much as anyone else in the economy from Trump's tweets.

顯然，事實證明，美聯儲和經濟領域的其他人一樣，都是從特朗普的推特上獲得消息的。

Nobody actually for a fact knows what are going to be the final tariffs.

實際上，沒有人知道最終的關稅是多少。

You know, you are actually watching the news and you get your news, oh, today we have tariffs on this country and X percentages.

你知道，實際上你在看新聞，你會得到這樣的消息：哦，今天我們對這個國家徵收關稅，佔 X%。

And then after tomorrow, you know, there is a different tariff.

明天之後，你知道，關稅就不一樣了。

It seems like the Fed has no inside information in order to make decisions prior to everyone else.

美聯儲似乎沒有內部消息，無法先於其他人做出決定。

And that's why even the Federal Reserve said that there are actually shocks and those tariffs are significantly more than they have expected.

這就是為什麼連美聯儲都說，實際上存在衝擊，這些關稅大大超出了他們的預期。

And because they don't know what's going to happen with those tariffs, they cannot properly plan.

因為他們不知道這些關稅會發生什麼變化，所以無法進行合理規劃。

And because the goal of the Fed is price stability, how can we possibly plan price stability if we don't know what are the policies are going to be, if we don't know what are the rules of the games are going to be?

因為美聯儲的目標是穩定物價，如果我們不知道政策是什麼，不知道遊戲規則是什麼，我們怎麼可能計劃穩定物價呢？

And that's why the Fed is like, we're not going to lower the interest rates, which means that maybe in 2025, even by the end of the year, the expectations of 3% interest rates are not happening.

這就是為什麼美聯儲表示，我們不會降低利率，這意味著也許到2025年，甚至到今年年底，3%的利率預期都不會實現。

And that will have a very serious implication on your portfolio, on the economy, and pretty much on your entire life.

這將對你的投資組合、經濟乃至整個人生產生非常嚴重的影響。

Now secondly, the problem is that because those tariffs are so uncertain, tariffs will certainly cause price hikes, like whether you like that or not, that is basically a fact.

其次，問題在於，由於這些關稅的不確定性，關稅肯定會導致價格上漲，無論你喜歡與否，這基本上是一個事實。

So we have a 10% baseline tariff, everything will be imported is going to increase in prices by 10%.

是以，我們有 10%的基準關稅，所有進口商品的價格都將上漲 10%。

So what the Fed hopes for a fact is that, there is going to be a one time price hike so that the entire market would adjust to those tariffs, and then after that, inflation will go down to their goal of 2% annually, which is actually normal.

是以，美聯儲希望的事實是，會有一次價格上漲，讓整個市場適應這些關稅，然後在那之後，通脹會下降到每年 2% 的目標，這實際上是正常的。

But the problem, we cannot even plan that because we don't know what are the tariffs are going to be.

但問題是，我們根本無法計劃，因為我們不知道關稅會是多少。

Just recently I found out that the tariffs on China are going to be 245% and then there is an exemption on laptops and smartphones, but there are tariffs that the white house is right now working on the smartphones as well.

就在最近，我發現對中國徵收的關稅將達到 245%，然後對筆記本電腦和智能手機免徵關稅，但白宮目前也正在對智能手機徵收關稅。

So how can we possibly expect a one time price hike when we don't know what kind of tariffs are going to be there.

是以，在我們不知道會有什麼樣的關稅的情況下，我們怎麼可能指望一次性漲價呢？

Now secondly, there are reciprocal tariffs, and those reciprocal tariffs are a tool to negotiate with other countries.

其次，還有互惠關稅，這些互惠關稅是與其他國家談判的工具。

So what are going to be the final tariffs on those countries on whom the US has reciprocal tariffs, we don't know.

是以，對那些美國對其徵收互惠關稅的國家最終會徵收多少關稅，我們不得而知。

And we might know that in 90 days from now, or maybe longer than that.

我們可能在 90 天后就會知道，也可能比這更久。

So if prices would rise much faster and much higher than the Fed expected, then there is a real possibility of actually raising the interest rates within this year.

是以，如果物價上漲的速度和幅度遠高於美聯儲的預期，那麼今年內實際加息的可能性就會很大。

Just imagine what kind of implication that is going to have on the entire economy.

試想一下，這會對整個經濟產生什麼樣的影響。

These are not my words, I am simply reporting to you what the chairman of the Fed says and what potentially he says could actually mean to the economy.

這些話不是我說的，我只是向你們報告美聯儲主席說的話，以及他說的話對經濟可能意味著什麼。

Because the chairman of the Fed has to be very careful with his words, whatever he says is going to have a direct implication on the market.

因為美聯儲主席必須謹言慎行，他說的任何話都會對市場產生直接影響。

If he says something negative, then that will crush the stock market, if he says something positive, then the stock market is going to go to the roof, which is why we have to kind of read between the lines and understand what exactly he is trying to say.

如果他說了負面的東西，那麼股市就會崩潰；如果他說了正面的東西，那麼股市就會衝上雲霄，這就是為什麼我們必須從字裡行間讀出他到底想說什麼。

He also made it clear that the GDP growth are going to be much lower than expected.

他還明確表示，國內生產總值的增長將大大低於預期。

If you go back to the March, they have already lowered down their GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%.

如果你回到 3 月份，他們已經將 GDP 預測從 2.1% 下調至 1.7%。

And in the last interview, he made it clear again that the new forecasts that are going to come for the quarter 1 of 2025 are going to be much lower than they expected, which means that the economy is slowing down.

在上一次採訪中，他再次明確表示，2025 年第一季度的新預測將比他們的預期低得多，這意味著經濟正在放緩。

And that slowdown in the economy, if it continues and it turns into negative GDP growth, then it could turn into a real recession.

如果經濟放緩繼續下去，變成國內生產總值的負增長，那麼就會變成真正的經濟衰退。

Now another thing that you have to understand that, even though that we have so many news about the tariffs, nobody have actually seen the real implication of the tariffs.

現在你必須明白的另一件事是，儘管我們有這麼多關於關稅的新聞，但實際上沒有人看到關稅的真正影響。

Because they will not come immediately, like when you see the headlines, oh we have tariffs of 10% or 20% or 100%, they will not have a direct implication the same day or the next day.

因為它們不會立即到來，比如當你看到頭條新聞，哦，我們有 10%、20% 或 100%的關稅時，它們不會在當天或第二天產生直接影響。

The real implications are going to come 3 months from now, 6 months from now, a year from now.

真正的影響將在 3 個月後、6 個月後、1 年後出現。

Because if you are a business, and first of all, you have a stockpile of your products in your backyard, so you can still sell those products without tariffs.

因為如果你是一家企業，首先，你的後院儲備了你的產品，那麼你仍然可以在不徵收關稅的情況下銷售這些產品。

Secondly, when they announced the tariffs, a lot of those companies started bringing a lot of those goods from China and Vietnam and the rest of the world.

其次，當他們宣佈徵收關稅時，很多公司開始從中國、越南和世界其他地方大量進口這些商品。

So there is a lot of stockpile in the United States right now that can be sold, and there was no tariffs on those goods.

是以，美國現在有大量庫存可以出售，而且這些商品沒有關稅。

Now thirdly, those stockpiles are going to be over sooner or later.

So the next shipment that will come from China for example, and it will be taxed at the border at 245%, that's when you will actually see real hikes in prices.

例如，下一批貨物將來自中國，並在邊境被徵收 245% 的稅，那時你就會看到真正的價格上漲。

A few months from now, 6 months from now?

It will be different for many businesses.

So a lot of businesses will do their math.

是以，很多企業都會算這筆賬。

They know that if they actually increase prices to a certain extent, consumers won't actually buy their products.

他們知道，如果真的把價格提高到一定程度，消費者就不會真正購買他們的產品。

Maybe there will be some demand out there, but overall, if demand is going to go down by 90%, you might have actually to close down your business.

也許會有一些需求，但總的來說，如果需求下降 90%，你可能真的要關門大吉了。

Because in business, you have two types of costs.

You have variable costs and you have fixed costs.

Fixed costs are your rental for example, or your employees and so on and so forth.

And variable cost is for example, the cost of your products that you are actually bringing from China or Vietnam or any other country.

例如，可變成本是指從中國、越南或其他國家進口產品的成本。

So if your revenue is going to go so down that you can't even cover your fixed costs and it makes no economic sense to keep sustaining your business, you might actually have to close down your business.

是以，如果你的收入下降到甚至無法彌補固定成本，而繼續維持業務又沒有經濟意義，那麼你可能真的要關門大吉了。

So over time, unemployment could actually rise.

是以，隨著時間的推移，失業率實際上可能會上升。

And that's another thing that the Fed actually hinted slowly, that unemployment could rise.

這也是美聯儲實際上慢慢暗示的另一件事，即失業率可能會上升。

And that will put the Fed in such a scenario where on one side you have unemployment rising slowly.

這將使美聯儲處於這樣一種局面：一邊是失業率緩慢上升。

On the other side, you have inflation rising slowly.

另一方面，通貨膨脹也在緩慢上升。

And you actually have to take opposite decisions in those scenarios in order to fix the problem.

在這些情況下，你實際上必須做出相反的決定，才能解決問題。

Lower interest rates in order to lower down unemployment or hike the interest rates in order to lower down inflation.

降低利率以降低失業率，或者提高利率以降低通貨膨脹率。

So the Fed for now has no idea what they want to do because they have no idea what's going to happen.

是以，美聯儲目前還不知道他們想做什麼，因為他們不知道會發生什麼。

But what they know for a fact is that there is a real possibility of unemployment is rising and GDP growth to actually going down.

但他們知道的事實是，失業率確實有可能上升，國內生產總值的增長確實有可能下降。

So a recession is still a real possibility.

是以，經濟衰退仍有可能發生。

You can also see that in the consumer confidence index.

從消費者信心指數中也可以看出這一點。

The consumer confidence index is how people feel confident about the future of the economy.

消費者信心指數是指人們對未來經濟的信心程度。

Because the more you are confident about the state of the economy, the more you are confident to spend your money.

因為你對經濟狀況越有信心，就越有信心花錢。

If you are not confident about the state of the economy and you are worried that you might lose your job, you're worried about prices, you're about you're worried about everything, your spending goes down.

如果你對經濟狀況沒有信心，擔心會失業，擔心物價，擔心一切，你的消費就會下降。

So that kind of slashes down the purchasing power of the population, which is going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy that will drive the economy into a recession and economic crisis.

是以，人口購買力下降，這將成為一個自我實現的預言，使經濟陷入衰退和經濟危機。

And look at the consumer confidence index.

It is as low as it was back in 2020 when we had one of the greatest crises in the history of the world, which was the pandemic of 2020.

2020 年，我們遇到了世界歷史上最大的危機之一，那就是 2020 年的大流行病。

But we don't have a pandemic, we don't have a disaster, we don't have anything like that.

但我們沒有大流行病，我們沒有災難，我們沒有類似的東西。

We simply have the greatest trade war that humans have actually started.

我們的貿易戰簡直是人類挑起的最大規模的貿易戰。

You can also see that in the consumer sentiment.

從消費者情緒中也可以看出這一點。

Now consumer sentiment index is basically what people feel about the state of the economy.

現在的消費者情緒指數基本上就是人們對經濟狀況的感受。

And right now, it is as low as it was back in 2020.

而現在，它和 2020 年時一樣低。

The Fed literally hiked the rates from almost 0% to as much as 5.5%.

美聯儲真的把利率從幾乎 0% 提高到了高達 5.5%。

And that made access to the capital so difficult that a lot of companies started declaring bankruptcy one after another.

這使得獲得資金變得如此困難，以至於很多公司開始相繼宣佈破產。

字幕列表影片播放

"大多數人不知道經濟即將發生什麼" (“Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Economy”)

literally

entire

apparently

pandemic