Name: 日本首相石破茂在大選失利後誓言留任 | BBC News (Japan Prime Minister Ishiba vows to stay on despite election loss | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-21T16:53:14.000Z
Duration: 5 min 4 s

程度副詞

We just want to look at that result in Japan.

As you have been hearing, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru

正如大家所聽到的，日本首相茂

轉承詞

Ishiba has reiterated he will stay on in office as prime minister despite his governing coalition losing its majority in the upper house of parliament in national elections.

石破重申，儘管他上司的執政聯盟在全國大選中失去了議會上院的多數席位，但他仍將留任首相。

Mr. Ishiba said the public had delivered a harsh judgment, but there were too many pressing issues to resolve for him to resign now.

石場先生說，公眾做出了嚴厲的判決，但有太多緊迫的問題需要解決，他現在不能辭職。

And he did, of course, talk about the threat of extra US tariffs and inflation.

當然，他也談到了美國額外關稅和通貨膨脹的威脅。

Japan's opposition parties are fragmented and unlikely to try to form a government themselves.

日本的反對黨四分五裂，不太可能自己組建政府。

The governing bloc lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.

執政集團在 10 月份失去了對權力更大的下議院的控制權。

Well, John Nilsen-Wright is associate professor at the University of Cambridge and head of Japan and Korea's programme at the Centre for Geopolitics.

約翰-尼爾森-賴特（John Nilsen-Wright）是劍橋大學的副教授，也是地緣政治中心日本和韓國項目的負責人。

And he gave me his thoughts about the LDP's election defeat.

他還向我談了他對自民黨選舉失敗的看法。

Going into this election, Prime Minister Ishiba was in a very weak position.

在這次選舉中，石破首相處於非常弱勢的地位。

All of the things that your correspondent was describing, the impact of very high price inflation at more than 3% in Japan, the question of rice prices, the issue of corruption as it's dominated the LDP, together with another issue which has been really,

貴國記者所描述的所有問題，日本超過 3% 的高物價通脹率所帶來的影響、大米價格問題、自民黨主導的腐敗問題，以及另一個真正的問題、

I think, increasingly stoked by parties like Sanseito, the question of immigration, particularly

我認為，在桑塞託等政黨的煽動下，移民問題，尤其是

Chinese immigration, has really combined together with the issue of tariff pressure from the United States to create a crisis of confidence, if you like, in the governing LDP.

中國移民問題與美國的關稅壓力問題結合在一起，確實給執政的自民黨造成了信任危機。

是以，這一結果並不令人意外。

I think what is, however, something of a surprise is the rise of far-right nationalist parties.

然而，我認為令人驚訝的是極右民族主義政黨的崛起。

For a long time, we assumed that populism really had no traction in Japan.

長期以來，我們一直認為民粹主義在日本確實沒有影響力。

I think we now have to revise that consideration.

我認為我們現在必須修改這一考慮。

And it raises interesting questions about what the government does now.

這就提出了一個有趣的問題：政府現在該做些什麼？

If Mr. Ishiba is able to tough it out, he said he will stay as prime minister.

如果石破茂先生能夠堅持下來，他表示將繼續擔任首相。

But there will be real pressure from within his party after three major defeats, the lower house election back in October, recent metropolitan elections in Tokyo, and now this dramatic defeat in the upper house election makes his position, I would say, almost untenable.

但是，在經歷了 10 月份的下議院選舉、最近的東京都選舉和現在的上議院選舉三場大敗之後，他的黨內將面臨真正的壓力。

But we'll have to wait and see to see what members of his own party decide to do.

但是，我們必須拭目以待，看看他自己黨內的成員決定怎麼做。

And just talk us through what might happen going forward.

和我們談談未來可能發生的事情。

Because as you say, to many it might seem surprising that this party, Senseito, has done as well as it did.

因為正如你所說，對許多人來說，這個政黨--感統黨--能取得如此好的成績可能會令人驚訝。

There is a real shift among the young Japanese in terms of what they're expecting from this government, whereas previous generations have just kind of opted for stability every time.

日本年輕人對本屆政府的期望發生了真正的轉變，而上一代人每次都只是選擇穩定。

It would seem that's no longer something that the LDP can just assume.

看來，這不再是自民黨可以想當然的事情了。

Many argue they've been very complacent in government.

許多人認為，他們在政府中一直非常自滿。

Well, the trouble is there are no good policy options at the moment.

問題是，目前沒有好的政策選擇。

I mean, in order to address the concerns of voters who are concerned with price inflation, the government will now come under pressure to follow through with some of the proposals from the opposition parties, one of which is a cut in the consumption tax.

我的意思是，為了消除那些擔心物價上漲的選民的顧慮，政府現在將面臨壓力，必須落實反對黨提出的一些建議，其中之一就是削減消費稅。

Which of course would have an immediate benefit in terms of addressing the cost of living issues for ordinary Japanese voters.

當然，這對解決日本普通選民的生活費用問題會有立竿見影的效果。

But it would also cut into social security provision, which is hugely important for an aging population.

但是，這也會削減社會保障，而社會保障對於人口老齡化是非常重要的。

It would increase the pressure on the government to increase reliance on government debt.

這將增加政府的壓力，使其更加依賴政府債務。

This is a country with a 260% debt to GDP ratio.

這個國家的債務與國內生產總值的比率高達 260%。

The markets will then punish the government and the country.

然後，市場將懲罰政府和國家。

All of this happening at a time when the squeeze in the external trade sector is becoming even more pronounced, given those very high threats of 25% tariffs on Japan's auto sector.

鑑於日本汽車行業面臨 25% 的高額關稅威脅，對外貿易領域的擠壓正變得更加明顯。

And a further 25% increase in tariffs on all Japanese exports to the United States.

並對日本出口到美國的所有商品進一步加徵 25% 的關稅。

It's really almost impossible to see how the government can square the circle.

政府要想擺平這一切，幾乎是不可能的。

And so we're going to see a period of economic turmoil.

是以，我們將看到一段經濟動盪期。

And it's going to be very difficult for Mr. Ishiba to demonstrate tangible progress.

石場先生也很難展示出切實的進展。

And just briefly, John, just quickly, because we're almost out of time.

約翰，就簡單說幾句，因為時間快到了。

Does this, presumably, as far as negotiating with the US is concerned, really weakens Japan's hand if the prime minister is seen really as a lame duck?

就與美國談判而言，如果首相真的被視為跛腳鴨，這是否會削弱日本的實力？

President Trump will be very aware of that when it comes to negotiating with Japan.

在與日本談判時，特朗普總統將非常清楚這一點。

Yes, and therefore that's one reason why party members might decide to put pressure on Mr. Ishiba to step down so that they have a tougher negotiator, if you like, going into those negotiations.

是的，是以這也是為什麼黨員們可能會決定向石場先生施壓，要求他下臺，這樣他們在談判時就會有一個更強硬的談判代表。

Takeichi Sanai, for example, a protege of former Prime Minister Abe, late Prime Minister Abe, more nationalistic.

比如佐內武一，他是前首相安倍晉三的門生，安倍晉三已故首相，更具民族主義色彩。

That might change the tenor of those talks.

But again, it's too early to say at this point.

不過，現在說這些還為時尚早。

It is too early to say on a lot of things at the moment.