Name: 中國說他們 "不達目的誓不罷休"。Quest 預測誰會先屈服：美國還是中國 (China says they are 'in this until the bitter end.' Quest predicts who caves first: US or China)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T15:34:02.000Z
Duration: 10 min 55 s

The stock market finished with a boom today.

Nice to see all that green reacting to President Trump pausing most of his tariffs on the world for 90 days after injecting mass chaos and fear in the markets.

很高興看到在給市場帶來大規模混亂和恐慌之後，特朗普總統在 90 天內暫停對全球徵收大部分關稅，這一切綠色的反應。

That pause does not include the tariff season posing on China.

這一停頓還不包括對中國徵收關稅的季節。

特朗普將關稅稅率提高到 125%。

So what made Trump blink or cave or change his mind, whatever verb you prefer?

那麼，是什麼讓特朗普眨眼、屈服或改變主意？

He said his decision, quote, came together early this morning, and quote, was written from the heart, whatever that means.

他說，他的決定是今天一早做出的，而且是發自內心的，不管這意味著什麼。

He probably also had to do something with the bond market, he said, which is usually safe in times of uncertainty.

他說，他可能還得對債券市場做些什麼，因為在不確定時期，債券市場通常是安全的。

It didn't appear that way this morning, of course.

當然，今天上午的情況並非如此。

I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.

CNN記者理查德-奎斯特（Richard Quest）正在為我們報道。

Richard, Trump claims that China wants to make a deal.

理查德，特朗普聲稱中國想達成協議。

If you were a betting man, do you think China and the United States are gonna come to an agreement?

如果你是一個賭徒，你認為中國和美國會達成協議嗎？

I think China is going to watch to see whether or not that you sort of do tit for tat, tit for tat, but the tit for tat gets lower and lower and lower until you end up somewhere in the middle.

我認為，中國會關注你們是否會針鋒相對、以牙還牙，但針鋒相對的程度會越來越低，直到你們最終處於中間位置。

And that's why I think the 125 is an interesting number that Trump went for, from 104 to 125.

這就是為什麼我認為特朗普提出的 125 是一個有趣的數字，從 104 到 125。

Is that number just small enough that China can either live with it or just about beat it?

這個數字是否小到足以讓中國要麼接受它，要麼差不多擊敗它？

Because at some point, one side or the other is going to telegraph that they are ready to meet.

因為總有一天，一方或另一方會發出信號，表示他們已經準備好會面。

The only thing against what I've just said, to argue completely against myself, is that the Chinese statement overnight is that they are in this to the bitter end.

與我剛才所說的完全相反的是，中方在一夜之間發表的聲明稱，他們將堅持到底。

And that's the worrying part, because China maybe just was written off the United States for the foreseeable future, and it's just gonna go head to head, toe for toe.

這才是令人擔憂的地方，因為在可預見的未來，中國可能會與美國一決雌雄，雙方將針鋒相對。

We're gonna have to wait for a few more hours to see if they match the 125 from Donald Trump.

我們還得再等幾個小時，看看他們是否與唐納德-特朗普的 125 篇文章相吻合。

And Richard, Goldman Sachs, as Trump's trade retreat, has not changed their own recession forecast, even though the stock market went up today.

理查德-高盛（Goldman Sachs）作為特朗普的貿易退路，並沒有改變他們對經濟衰退的預測，即使今天股市上漲。

It's best day in 16 years, still not back to where the stocks were when Trump announced a so-called liberation day.

這是 16 年來最好的一天，但仍未回到特朗普宣佈所謂解放日時的股市水準。

Are the gains today, is it like pushing an old lady down the stairs and then wanting credit for helping her back up at the bottom there?

今天的收穫，是不是就像把一位老太太推下樓梯，然後又想獲得在樓梯下面把她扶起來的榮譽？

That's very well put. I made Richard laugh.

說得真好。我把理查德逗笑了。

I was gonna sort of say it's like the arsonists calling the fire brigade and then taking credit.

我想說，這就像縱火犯打電話給消防隊，然後把功勞攬到自己頭上。

No, this is why Goldman is saying what it's actually said.

不，這就是為什麼高盛會說出這樣的話。

Number one, you still have the auto tariffs.

Number two, you still have the steel and aluminium tariffs.

第二，你們仍在徵收鋼鋁關稅。

Number three, you have the Chinese tariffs at 125%, the largest bilateral trade relationship.

第三，中國的關稅高達 125%，這是最大的雙邊貿易關係。

And number four, you have a new global US tariff of 10%, which is three times the previous average of 2.5%.

第四，美國新的全球關稅為 10%，是之前平均關稅 2.5% 的三倍。

So yes, the worst in terms of Japan, South Korea, the EU has been staved off.

是以，從日本、韓國和歐盟的角度來看，最壞的情況已經過去了。

But there is so much tariff in the system at the moment that's just gonna wash over the global trading system.

但是，目前系統中的關稅太高，會沖垮全球貿易體系。

President Trump posted this morning, quote, "'Be cool. Everything is gonna work out well.'"

特朗普總統今天上午發佈了引文："'冷靜。一切都會好起來的'"。

White House Press Secretary Caroline Levin tried to take a victory lap.

白宮新聞祕書卡羅琳-萊文（Caroline Levin）試圖來個勝利大轉彎。

Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal.

在座的許多媒體人顯然都忽略了交易的藝術。

You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here.

你顯然沒有看清特朗普總統在這裡做了什麼。

Joining us now, someone who knows the inner workings of the Trump White House, well, former White House Communications Director,

現在加入我們的是對特朗普白宮內部運作了如指掌的前白宮通訊主任、

None of you, many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal.

你們中沒有人，你們中的許多媒體人顯然都忽略了交易的藝術。

When President Trump in his own words made it very clear that this didn't seem to be part of any strategy, he just saw that people were getting queasy.

當特朗普總統用自己的話非常明確地表示，這似乎不是任何戰略的一部分，他只是看到人們開始感到不安。

I mean, listen, this was clearly, and Donald Trump said as much on the South Lawn that he was looking at the bond markets collapsing.

我的意思是，聽著，這很明顯，唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在南草坪上也是這麼說的，他正看著債券市場崩潰。

And that was what forced his hand into this reversal.

而這正是迫使他做出這次逆轉的原因。

And this from, you know, from an outsider's perspective, but who was once an insider there,

你知道，這是從一個局外人的角度來看的，但他曾經是局內人、

I get the sense that a lot of the major decisions these past few days have been made in a very small circle.

我感覺到，這幾天的很多重大決定都是在一個很小的圈子裡做出的。

And a lot of the communication staff and the staff who are going on television talking about what's going on are often kind of behind the curve in the President's decisions.

而很多在電視上大談特談的宣傳人員和工作人員，往往有點跟不上總統的決策。

In the President's decision-making, because we were repeatedly told this is not a negotiation.

在總統的決策中，因為我們一再被告知這不是談判。

Then Donald Trump says it is a negotiation.

然後，唐納德-特朗普說這是一場談判。

And beyond that, I do believe the White House is hearing from foreign leaders, but more importantly, they're hearing from business leaders.

除此之外，我相信白宮正在聽取外國領導人的意見，但更重要的是，他們正在聽取商界領袖的意見。

Business leaders who a lot of them bet big on Donald Trump.

很多商界領袖都在唐納德-特朗普身上下了大賭注。

They thought he was gonna be good for the economy.

They were expecting Trump term one all over again.

他們期待著特朗普第一任期的重演。

And then they saw the markets in shambles.

然後，他們看到市場一片狼藉。

And thank God you're hearing a big sigh of relief from Capitol Hill and from our allies around the world right now.

謝天謝地，國會山和我們在世界各地的盟友都鬆了一口氣。

You say during your time at the White House,

Trade Advisor Peter Navarro, who Elon Musk has been insulting over and over this week, that Navarro sometimes presented ideas that were half-baked.

貿易顧問彼得-納瓦羅（Peter Navarro）是埃隆-馬斯克本週反覆辱罵的對象，他說納瓦羅有時提出的想法是半生不熟的。

But there's still a lot of loyalty between Trump and Navarro.

但特朗普和納瓦羅之間仍有很多忠誠。

Today, Republican Senator Rand Paul, who doesn't believe in tariffs, he called Navarro a walking economic fallacy, which is, I should note, at least nicer than Elon Musk saying he's dumber than a stack of bricks.

今天，不相信關稅的共和黨參議員蘭德-保羅（Rand Paul）稱納瓦羅是一個行走的經濟謬論，我應該注意到，這至少比埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）說他比一堆磚頭還笨要好。

Do you think Navarro's days are numbered at all in the White House, or Trump doesn't care about any of that?

你認為納瓦羅在白宮的日子已經屈指可數，還是特朗普根本不在乎這些？

I think perhaps his influence over global markets and sweeping trade policy may be sidelined.

我認為，他對全球市場和全面貿易政策的影響力可能會被邊緣化。

He's a person who, listen, if you listen to him in a small, narrow way and then take in the advice of other people, could potentially be helpful to the president.

聽著，如果你以一種狹隘的方式傾聽他的意見，然後採納其他人的建議，他有可能對總統有所幫助。

But what this White House wasn't able to do based on what I'm gonna call the Navarro plan that they rolled out, is explain exactly what the full plan is.

但是，白宮並沒有能夠根據他們推出的納瓦羅計劃解釋完整計劃的具體內容。

Is it full re-industrialization of the US?

Are we trying to bring back every factory that was lost?

我們是要讓所有失去的工廠都復活嗎？

Are we cutting off basically all foreign trade and thinking we're gonna be able to build everything from iPhones to sneakers here?

我們是否基本上切斷了所有的對外貿易，並認為我們能夠在這裡製造從蘋果手機到運動鞋的所有產品？

And that aspect of it just was not clearly articulated.

而這方面的問題並沒有得到明確的闡述。

I think Donald Trump feels some alignment with Navarro and his policies, but he's a businessman who understands how you create jobs and how you keep an economy going, and Navarro's ideas are just the antithesis of how you do that.

我認為唐納德-特朗普覺得自己與納瓦羅和他的政策有些一致，但他是一個商人，懂得如何創造就業機會，如何保持經濟發展，而納瓦羅的想法恰恰與他的想法背道而馳。

All right, Alyssa Farrar-Griffin, thank you so much.

好的，Alyssa Farrar-Griffin，非常感謝。

Phil, according to the latest jobs report, there are nearly 500,000 vacant manufacturing jobs right now.

菲爾，根據最新的就業報告，目前製造業有近 50 萬個空缺職位。

Now Trump's talking about bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States, which sounds wonderful, but if there are 500,000 vacant manufacturing jobs right now, are those jobs even desired by people?

現在特朗普說要把製造業工作帶回美國，這聽起來很美好，但如果現在有 50 萬個製造業工作崗位空缺，這些工作是否是人們想要的呢？

It is a question that has not been answered by the Trump administration, in part because they just aren't anywhere close to that point yet.

特朗普政府還沒有回答這個問題，部分原因是他們還沒有走到這一步。

That would probably be viewed as a good problem to have where all the manufacturing has actually moved back to the United States and we're trying to train a workforce, but it is a clear reality right now in the marketplace.

在所有制造業都已遷回美國、我們正努力培訓勞動力的情況下，這可能會被視為一個很好的問題，但這卻是目前市場上的一個明顯現實。

Manufacturing has changed dramatically over the course of decades.

幾十年來，製造業發生了翻天覆地的變化。

It is so tied to automation and technology, robotics, that the types of jobs are high-skilled labor.

它與自動化和技術、機器人技術緊密相連，工作類型是高技能勞動力。

Now, to be very clear, J.D. Vance, Vice President, in a speech at a summit a couple of weeks ago, made clear they're not trying to create manufacturing jobs that would be equivalent to cheap labor back in the United States.

副總統萬斯（J.D. Vance）在幾周前的一次峰會上發表講話時明確表示，他們並不是要創造相當於美國廉價勞動力的製造業就業機會。