Name: 看了川普與澤倫斯基吵架，臺灣是否應該擔心失去美國的支持？(Should Taiwan be worried about losing US support? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-03-04T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 8 min 28 s

情態副詞

Well, as the US attempts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, another democracy with a large authoritarian neighbour is watching those negotiations closely.

在美國試圖斡旋俄羅斯和烏克蘭達成和平協議的同時，另一個擁有龐大獨裁鄰國的民主國家也在密切關注著這些談判。

Many people in Taiwan feel that President Trump has taken Russia's side in the Ukraine conflict and that doesn't bode well for the East Asian democracy, which is largely dependent on America for its national defence.

許多臺灣人認為，特朗普總統在烏克蘭衝突中站在了俄羅斯一邊，這對在國防上主要依賴美國的東亞民主國家來說不是個好兆頭。

China's military drills in the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday have added to a sense of unease for many of the island's citizens.

中國週三在臺灣海峽舉行的軍事演習令許多島內民眾倍感不安。

But as DW correspondent James Chaytor reports from the Taiwanese capital, officials are still hoping they can keep Donald Trump as a loyal friend.

但正如 DW 記者詹姆斯-查伊託（James Chaytor）在臺灣首都所報道的那樣，官員們仍然希望能把唐納德-特朗普當作忠實的朋友。

Outside the de facto Russian embassy in Taipei, a display of solidarity with the victims of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

在事實上的俄羅斯駐臺北大使館外，人們向莫斯科入侵烏克蘭的受害者表示聲援。

But for many of the Taiwanese taking part in this demonstration, this isn't just about a conflict in Europe.

但對參加這次示威的許多臺灣人來說，這不僅僅是一場歐洲衝突。

It's a reminder that they, too, face an existential threat.

這提醒我們，他們也面臨著生存威脅。

On the one hand, I'm tending this rally to support Ukraine, but for Taiwanese people it's also about resisting China and its alliance with Russia.

一方面，我傾向於通過這次集會支持烏克蘭，但對臺灣人民來說，這也是為了抵制中國及其與俄羅斯的聯盟。

Many of the activists here, Taiwanese and Ukrainian, have been coming here right since the start of the war in Ukraine.

這裡的許多活動家，有臺灣人，也有烏克蘭人，從烏克蘭戰爭一開始就來到這裡。

Now, more than ever, they're troubled by how the conflict in Europe could end and what that means for the fate of Taiwan.

現在，他們比以往任何時候都更擔心歐洲衝突會如何結束，以及這對臺灣的命運意味著什麼。

US military backing of Taiwan is considered essential in fending off a possible attack by Beijing, which sees the self-ruled democracy as its own territory.

美國認為，美國對臺灣的軍事支持對於抵禦北京可能發動的進攻至關重要，因為北京視臺灣民主自治區為自己的領土。

That's why US President Donald Trump's move toward Moscow, even accusing Kiev of starting the war with Russia, has rattled many here.

這就是為什麼美國總統唐納德-特朗普對莫斯科的舉動，甚至指責基輔挑起了與俄羅斯的戰爭，讓這裡的許多人感到震驚。

Taiwan and Ukraine both face great powers that don't recognize our sovereignty.

臺灣和烏克蘭都面臨著不承認我們主權的大國。

But if Trump can abandon Ukraine for his own interests, then couldn't he abandon Taiwan, too?

但是，如果特朗普可以為了自己的利益放棄烏克蘭，那麼他就不能放棄臺灣嗎？

Taiwan is taking steps to smooth potential bumps in its relations with Trump.

臺灣正採取措施平息與特朗普關係中可能出現的波折。

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-de this month pledged to increase defense spending to three percent of GDP.

臺灣總統賴清德本月承諾將國防開支提高到國內生產總值的 3%。

He also promised more talks with Washington on Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor industry, something Trump has repeatedly claimed, incorrectly, that Taiwan stole from the US.

他還承諾就臺灣世界領先的半導體產業與華盛頓進行更多會談，特朗普曾多次錯誤地聲稱臺灣從美國竊取了這一產業。

Wang Dingyu, chair of Taiwan's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, was in Washington for Trump's inauguration.

臺灣外交與國防委員會主席王定宇在華盛頓參加了特朗普的就職典禮。

Wang says the US president's policy toward Europe has caused concern in Taiwan, but that the full impact is still unclear.

王文洋說，美國總統的對歐政策在臺灣引起了關注，但其全面影響尚不明確。

當然，我們需要對其進行監測。

We need to realize our best friend, how they deal with international crisis.

我們需要了解我們最好的朋友是如何應對國際危機的。

Taiwan, we need to put Taiwan in a reliable partner position.

臺灣，我們需要將臺灣置於可靠夥伴的地位。

When you look at the next four years and the relationship with the US administration, what are some of the things that keep you up at night?  Trust between allies.

展望未來四年以及與美國政府的關係，有哪些事情讓您夜不能寐？  盟友之間的信任。

Anything weaken this kind of trust will meet the interest of autocracy China, Beijing.

任何削弱這種信任的行為都將符合專制中國北京的利益。

People in Taiwan have weathered complex global forces for decades, but in the new world order ushered in by Trump, Taiwan will be challenged to find its footing once again.

幾十年來，臺灣人民經受住了複雜的全球力量的考驗，但在特朗普帶來的新世界秩序中，臺灣將再次面臨尋找立足點的挑戰。

Let's pick up some of those points with Fang Yucheng, who is a political scientist at Taiwan's Suchow University and chief editor of the podcast US-Taiwan Watch.

方玉成是臺灣蘇喬大學的政治學家，也是《美臺觀察》播客的主編。

Let's start with a question we heard in our report.

讓我們從報告中聽到的一個問題開始。

If Trump can abandon Ukraine, then couldn't he abandon Taiwan too?

如果特朗普可以放棄烏克蘭，那麼他就不能放棄臺灣嗎？

Well, I would not say that Mr. Trump abandoned Ukraine, because everything under his policy is transactional.

我不會說特朗普先生放棄了烏克蘭，因為他的一切政策都是交易性的。

So he wants to make a deal with Russians, with Europe, and with Ukraine as well.

是以，他希望與俄羅斯、歐洲以及烏克蘭達成協議。

So there's no words like alliance or democracy in the past framework.

是以，過去的框架中沒有聯盟或民主這樣的字眼。

So we have to adjust to this new framework.

是以，我們必須適應這個新框架。

So I would not say that the American will abandon anyone, especially Taiwan, because Taiwan is a long-term friend of the U.S. and also just a highly interdependent of the economy.

是以，我不會說美國會拋棄任何人，尤其是臺灣，因為臺灣是美國的長期朋友，也是經濟高度相互依存的地區。

So I think there is a lot of new policies under the new administration.

是以，我認為新政府出臺了很多新政策。

So everyone must take a new approach on making the connection with the U.S.

是以，每個人都必須採取新的方式與美國建立聯繫。

好吧，那我們就來探討一下這個問題。

In this new transactional world, what can Taiwan do for the U.S. that would ensure U.S. continued support?

在這個新的交易世界中，臺灣能為美國做什麼才能確保美國繼續支持臺灣？

And also on the idea of Taiwan being a trade partner, we've seen with Mexico and with Canada and even with the European Union, that counts for nothing.

另外，關於臺灣是貿易伙伴的想法，我們已經看到，與墨西哥、加拿大甚至歐盟的貿易伙伴關係都不值一提。

So let's start with what you can do for the U.S.

讓我們從您能為美國做的事情開始。

Well, first of all, the U.S. wants everyone, every country to pay more for the military capabilities.

首先，美國希望每個人、每個國家都為軍事能力付出更多。

So firstly, Taiwan must invest more on the military capability, military spending.

是以，首先，臺灣必須加大對軍事能力和軍費的投入。

And that is also one of the most important Taiwan's national interests.

這也是臺灣最重要的國家利益之一。

So firstly, Taiwan should explore more possibility of the cooperation with the U.S. and also to expand more arms sales and other military cooperation items with the U.S., which the two countries have already done a lot in the past few years.

是以，首先，臺灣應探索與美國合作的更多可能性，同時擴大與美國的更多軍售和其他軍事合作項目，而這兩國在過去幾年中已經做了很多。

So I think we have a very good base for deepening the ties between the U.S. and Taiwan.

是以，我認為我們擁有深化美臺關係的良好基礎。

And secondly, for the economy, Mr. Trump very often to use so-called tariff on other countries.

其次，對於經濟，特朗普先生經常對其他國家使用所謂的關稅。

And most of the times he uses the tariff for different purposes.

而且大多數情況下，他將關稅用於不同的目的。

I think for Taiwan's case, the tariff on the semiconductor industry is not a real project because Taiwan's semiconductor industry produces not the final goods, but oftentimes the intermediate goods.

我認為，就臺灣而言，對半導體產業徵收關稅並不是一個真正的項目，因為臺灣的半導體產業生產的並不是最終產品，很多時候生產的是中間產品。

Which means that if there is any tariff, it will not impose on Taiwanese company, but on the American companies, including Google, Apple, and NVIDIA.

這意味著，如果要徵收關稅，也不是針對臺灣公司，而是針對美國公司，包括谷歌、蘋果和英偉達。

So it is not, I don't think tariff on Taiwan is a real plan.

是以，我不認為對臺灣徵收關稅是一個真正的計劃。

So there's another issues like investment, foreign investment, I think Mr. Trump cares the most.

是以，我認為特朗普先生最關心的是投資、外國投資等另一個問題。

您認為中國如何看待這個問題？

Because the way, if I read you correctly, on the one hand, you could say that, well, China would be quite pleased about the idea of the United States backing Russia against Ukraine, because it semi-legitimizes China's claim to Taiwan.

因為，如果我沒理解錯的話，一方面，你可以說，美國支持俄羅斯反對烏克蘭，中國會很高興，因為這使中國對臺灣的主張半合法化了。

But on the other hand, if the United States is then selling more weapons to Taiwan, and Taiwan's increasing its military spending, well, China's not going to be happy about that.

但另一方面，如果美國向臺灣出售更多武器，而臺灣又增加軍費開支，那麼中國就不會高興了。

那麼，請為我們解讀一下中國人的想法吧。

I think most of time, China is still very uncertain about the Trump administration.

我認為，大多數時候，中國對特朗普政府還很不確定。

So for the good side for China is that, well, the Americans, the American first policy seems to have a retreat globally on the soft power, especially cancel cancellation of the USAID.

是以，對中國有利的一面是，美國人的 "美國優先 "政策似乎在全球範圍內對軟實力有所退縮，尤其是取消了美國國際開發署（USAID）。

That includes cancellation of a lot of civil group monitoring projects on China.

這包括取消許多民間團體對中國的監測項目。

However, China is also facing uncertainty on more resources on the Indo-Pacific region, which is one of the priority of the Trump administration.

然而，中國也面臨著在印太地區獲得更多資源的不確定性，而這正是特朗普政府的優先事項之一。

Fang Yuchen, political scientist at Taiwan's Suzhou University.

臺灣蘇州大學政治學家方玉珍。