[male narrator] The 24th of July, 1914.

1914年7月24日

It's late at night.

夜深人靜。

A group of haggard-looking men sit in a dim room in the ministry in Belgrade.

一群面容憔悴的男人坐在貝爾格萊德部所的一間幽暗的房間裡。

One of them holds the Austrian ultimatum in his hands.

其中一人手持奧地利寄來的最後通牒。

They've spent the day debating how to reply.

他們花了一整天爭執著要怎麼回覆。

Defeated, they're about to give in to all demands.

無計可施的他們，即將全盤接受奧地利的要求。

A note is slipped under the door.

一張紙條從門底下送了進來。

It says that the Russians have started to mobilize.

上面寫道，俄羅斯人已經開始動員了。

They change their reply, and the final act begins.

他們改了草擬的回覆，於是最後一幕開始了。

In their reply, the Serbians agree to nine out of ten Austrian demands.

在他們的回覆裡，塞爾維亞人接受奧地利的十項要求中的九項。

They only refuse to allow Austrian officials to have police powers within Serbia.

他們只拒絕奧地利警方在塞爾維亞境內享有警察權而已。

But their reply is a masterstroke,

但這封回信真是傑出的一筆，

an act of genius in the way it concludes.

它以高明的方式作結。

For, at the end, it says that if the Austrians don't find their terms to be fair,

它在最後寫道，如果奧地利人覺得他們的條件不公平，

the Serbians are more than willing to submit to the resolution of a conference.

塞爾維亞人非常樂意在國際會議上接受調解。

But if you'll remember, the Austrians hate conferences.

但如果你還記得，奧地利人恨透了國際會議。

They are always getting out-voted at those things.

他們怎麼投票都輸人家。

Well, no more.

這次不能再輸了。

Not this time.

他們對塞爾維亞的回覆火冒三丈，

They are livid at the Serbian reply,

但亦如往常，他們轉向盟友德國請求建議。

but like always, they turn to their German allies for advice.

皇帝還在海上，

The Kaiser is still at sea,

所以奧地利的外交大臣貝希托爾德(Berchtold)跑去諮詢貝特曼-霍爾韋格(Bethmann-Hollweg)

so Austrian's foreign minister Berchtold goes to consult Bethmann Hollweg

和毛奇(Moltke)，德國陸軍元帥。

and Moltke, the head of the German army.

他們暴跳如雷。

They are apoplectic.

他們說：「搞什麼？

They say, "What?

你還沒宣戰嗎？！

“You haven't declared war already?!

以經過了一個月了，

“A month has gone by.

快點宣戰！

“Get on with it!

這不是我們所說好的，

“This isn't what we agreed to.

我們現在正失去歐洲人民的同情啊！」

We're losing the sympathies of the people of Europe."

其實，大公遇刺後，

You see, after the assassination of the Archduke,

歐洲輿論壓倒性地反對塞爾維亞。

public opinion in Europe weighed heavily against Serbia.

政治上，當時沒有人能夠站出來挺他們。

It was politically impossible for anybody to support them then.

但一個月已經過了，

But now a month has passed,

而這則回覆，滿足了奧地利人大部分的要求，

and this reply, this meeting of most of the Austrian demands

並且打開了調解的大門，使得塞爾維亞人看起來比較有理性。

and this offer for mediation, made the Serbs seem like the reasonable party.

畢竟，奧地利還能強求什麼？

After all, what more could Austria want?

所以貝希托爾德帶著德國人的怒斥

So with the rebukes of the Germans driving him,

回到了奧匈帝國

Berchtold returns to Austria-Hungary

並首次和康拉德·馮·赫岑多夫(Conrad von Hötzendorf)，

and for the first time speaks with Conrad von Hötzendorf,

奧地利軍隊的總參謀長，報備。

the Chief of Staff of the Austrian army.

他一樣暴跳如雷。

He too is apoplectic.

「什麼？宣戰？

"What, declare war?

你在開玩笑嗎？

“Are you kidding me?

你想這樣做，你幾個禮拜前早就該跟我們講了！

“You needed to tell us weeks ago if that's what you wanted to do!

奧地利軍隊要等到8月14日才能夠上戰場，還要好幾個禮拜啊！

“The Austrian army won't be ready for war until the 14th of August, weeks from now!

加上，我們連要對誰動員都不知道。

“Plus, we don't even know who we're mobilizing against.

你想要我們準備和塞爾維亞打仗？

“You want us to prepare for war with Serbia?

俄羅斯人已經對我們動員了，甭想！

“Yeah, not when Russia's mobilized against us, we aren't.

你若能確保俄羅斯中立，我們才或許，

“Get us a guarantee of Russian neutrality and then maybe,

或許，可以談談對塞爾維亞人動員。」

maybe, we can talk about mobilizing against the Serbs."

沮喪的貝希托爾德，一面被德國人壓向戰爭，

Despondent, pressured toward war by the Germans,

一面被總參謀長告知奧地利還沒準備好，

told that Austria isn't ready by his own Chief of Staff,

回家深思。

Berchtold returns home and begins to think.

幾個小時後，他開始說服自己還有辦法走出這淌渾水。

As the hours grow later, he starts to convince himself there's way out of this.

他開始推想，宣戰不一定等同於作戰。

He starts to reason that declaring war isn't necessarily the same as being at war.

所以如果他現在宣戰，

And so maybe if he declares war now,

他可以安撫德國人，並且

he'll placate the Germans and be able to use that threat

威脅塞爾維亞人投降

to get the Serbs to capitulate

完全不用奧地利軍隊準備好就可以結束戰爭。

before he even needs the Austrian army to be ready to fight.

現在，我們當然可以看破這種垂死掙扎的思考邏輯。

Now we can all see this for the desperate rationalization that it is.

我們都曾經深陷膠著之中，

We've all at one time or another gotten ourselves into an impossible situation

然後用某個瘋狂的解決方案騙自己，

and let ourselves believe in some wild, hair-brained solution

說這樣一定可以搞定一切。

that'll surely fix everything.

只不過當我們那樣做時，世界的命運通常不是處在千鈞一髮之際。

Only when we do that, the fate of the world isn't usually hanging in a balance.

於是，7月28日，

And so, on the 28th of July,

奧匈帝國向塞爾維亞宣戰，

Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia,

同時貝希托爾德深信自己可以用宣戰帶來和平。

with Berchtold all the while believing he's going to bring peace by declaring war.

但那天早上，

But that morning, the morning of the 28th,

德國皇帝威廉二世回到了波茨坦(Potsdam)。

Kaiser Wilhelm II got back to Potsdam.

同一天早上，皇帝讀了塞爾維亞對

That very morning, the Kaiser read the Serbian response

奧地利最後通牒的回覆，並低吟，

to the Austria Ultimatum and uttered,

「這樣子一來，所有打仗的理由都沒了。」

"With this, every reason for war drops away."

而這，就是在戰前瘋狂的七月天中最慘烈的悲劇之一。

And here is one of the great tragedies of those frantic July days leading to the war.

這個男人，威廉二世，儘管他多麼無能，犯了多少錯，

This man, Wilhelm II, for all his inadequacies, for all his failings,

總算站出來嘗試成為他應該成為的男人，

for once in his life steps up and tries to become the man he should be,

一個值得統治全世界最強大的國家的男人。

the man who deserves to rule the most powerful nation in the world.

而他差一點就成功了。

And he comes so close.

但儘管他多麼努力，已經來不及了。

And yet, despite his best attempt, he's too late.

世界並沒有獎賞他的努力，

The world doesn't reward his effort,

一切將陷入渾沌，大戰到來，然後他的帝國將瓦解。

things spiral into chaos, war comes, and his empire will fall.

德國皇帝嘗試展開和平會談，

The Kaiser tries to open peace talks,

或者是舉辦國際會議，

perhaps even hold a conference,

但奧地利人可不吃這套。

but the Austrians will have none of it.

所以他提出了一個新穎的解決方案：

So he proposes a novel solution:

停在貝爾格萊德。

Halt in Belgrade.

貝爾格萊德，塞爾維亞的首都，距奧地利邊境沒幾英里。

Belgrade, the Serbian capital, is just a few miles from the Austrian border.

如果奧地利軍隊佔領了首都，

If the Austrian army occupies the capital,

他們可以宣布戰勝並且保留顏面，

they can declare victory and save face

並且給歐洲各國看，他們並不打算吞併塞爾維亞。

while showing the rest of Europe that they don't plan to annex Serbia.

而且如果他們夠快，俄羅斯人會來不及介入戰爭。

And they can do it quickly enough to perhaps keep the Russians out of the war.

但這個提議必須通過貝特曼，

But this proposal has to go through Bethmann,

而貝特曼人在柏林。

and Bethmann is in Berlin.

釐清一下：現在是1914年，所以儘管令人難以置信，

Now get this: It's 1914, so as impossible as it seems,

柏林和波茨坦之間沒有電話線。

there was no telephone line between Berlin and Potsdam.

所以貝特曼沒辦法直接答覆。

So Bethmann can't reply directly.

他對「停在貝爾格勒」計畫非常懷疑，

He's pretty skeptical of the Halt in Belgrade plan,

但與其開去波茨坦找皇帝說明白，

but instead of making the drive to Potsdam for clarification,

他傳給在奧地利的德國情報員，

he passes it along to German agents in Austria

交代說不要逼奧地利人採取這個方案。

with the instructions not to press the Austrians too hard to adopt it.

而且他也沒提到這個方案是德國皇帝親自給的。

And he doesn't even mention that it comes from the Kaiser himself.

同時，在俄羅斯，

Meanwhile, in Russia,

薩宗諾夫收到通報，奧地利人砲轟貝爾格萊德。

Sazonov gets reports of Austrians shelling Belgrade.

當然，這些通報都是假的。

These reports are false, of course.

奧地利軍隊在8月14日之前還沒辦法作戰，

The Austrian army won't be ready to do anything until August 14th,

但他怎麼可能知道呢？

but he has no way of knowing that.

於是，他，反對俄羅斯全面動員的最後一人，

So he, one of the last men opposed to full Russian mobilization,

不再反戰了

lets the dam break

並且自己宣布俄羅斯軍隊全面動員。

and declares himself for a full mobilization of the Russian army.

他和俄羅斯參謀總長亞努科維奇(Yanukovych)

He and the Russian Chief of Staff, Yanukovych,

拜見沙皇，並說服他時候到了。

go to see the czar and convince him that the time has come.

總動員的命令傳下去了。

General mobilization is ordered.

夜幕降臨。

Night falls.

凌晨一點，沙皇輾轉難眠。

It's 1:00 AM and the czar can't sleep.

他發了一封電報給德國皇帝，說：

He sends a telegram to the Kaiser of Germany and it reads thus:

「我很高興你回來了。

“I'm glad you're back.

在這個緊張萬分的時候，我請求你幫我。

“In this serious moment, I appeal to you to help me.

一場不義的戰爭將降臨一個弱小的國家。

“An ignoble war has been declared to a weak country.

全俄羅斯的憤慨都壓在我的雙肩。

“The indignation in Russia shared fully by me is enormous.

我可以預見，很快的，

“I foresee that very soon

我將無法承受這壓力，

“I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure forced upon me

並被迫採取極端措施，導致戰火爆發。

“and be forced to take extreme measures, which will lead to war.

為了避免歐洲大戰這種浩劫，

“To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war,

我以我們的老交情懇求你，盡你所能，

“I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can

不要讓你的盟友做得太超過。

“to stop your allies from going too far.

小尼 (Nicky)」

Nicky.”

記住，這兩個男人是堂兄弟。

Now you have to remember that these two men were cousins.

他們是朋友。

They were friends.

所有外交的管道都失敗了。

All the avenues of diplomacy had failed.

整個國家的標準行政機制正把他們推向戰爭。

All the standard bureaucratic mechanisms of the state were driving them to war.

所以他們以堂兄弟，以朋友的身分彼此聯絡，

So they reached out to each other, as cousins, as friends,

看看他們兩個人直接交涉

to see if the two of them dealing directly, person-to-person,

可不可以避免這場戰爭。

could avoid this war.

而只在這帝國日薄西山之際，

And in a touch that could only come from these twilight days of empire

他們不以沙皇或皇帝稱呼彼此。

did they not refer to each other as Czar or Kaiser.

他們甚至不以威廉和尼古拉相稱，

They don't even refer to each other as Wilhelm and Nicholas,

而是以小威(Willy)和小尼(Nicky)相稱。

but rather as Willy and Nicky.

德國皇帝一樣醒著，而他回信了。

The Kaiser is awake too and he responds.

一連串的電報反覆傳遞。

A flurry of telegrams get sent back and forth.

在這些回覆之後，

At the end of these correspondences,

尼古拉拿起電話，打給亞努科維奇

Nicholas picks up the phone, calls Yanukovych

叫他取消總動員。

and tells him to call off the general mobilization.

亞努科維奇一時支支吾吾，

Yanukovych splutters and starts to reel off all the things

取消總動員的所有複雜程序使他焦頭爛額，

that cancelling mobilization means they're going to have to do,

但沙皇堅決取消，並掛了電話。

but the czar says “Cancel it,” and hangs up the phone.

30號早上，薩宗諾夫得知沙皇的決定。

On the morning of the 30th, Sazonov hears what the czar has done.

他被嚇壞了。

He's shocked.

他找了杜馬(Duma,俄羅斯議會)的首相，

He pulls in the head of the Duma, the Russian parliament,

還有東正教的宗主教(Patriarch)，

and the patriarch of the Orthodox Church

找沙皇開會。

and they go in for a knockdown, drag-out meeting with the czar.

整個房間水洩不通，燥熱不堪，說來說去毫無進展，

The room is crowded, it's hot, talks are getting nowhere,

然後尼古拉獨自走向窗戶，眺望窗外的聖彼得堡，深思。

and then Nicholas moves off alone, staring out the window at St. Petersburg, trying to think.

他反思了幾分鐘後，

After a few minutes of reflection, coming to no conclusion,

一位身旁的侍從官(aide-de-camp)說：

a young man, an aide to Kemp, standing near the czar says,

「陛下，我們知道做這個決定對你來說多麼艱難。」

“Majesty, we know how difficult it must be for you to decide.”

無意間，這些話割傷了沙皇。

Without intention, these words cut.

尼古拉一直被認為是一位弱小、優柔寡斷又沒出息的領導人，

Nicolas had always been called the weak, indecisive, feckless leader,

而他恨透了這樣的名聲。

and he hated it.

他想要甩開幾年來人們對他的各種辱罵。

He wanted to shake off all those names people had been calling him for so many years.

他想要證明給世界看，他不是一位軟弱無力

He wanted to show the world he wasn't some wishy-washy prince

沒辦法下主意的王子。

who couldn't make up his mind.

於是，因為一位連名字都已經失傳的

And so like that, with the words from some aide to Kemp

侍從官所說的話，

whose name history has forgotten,

尼古拉轉身說：「我會簽下命令。」

Nicolas turns around and says, “I will sign the order.”

在德國，貝特曼總算有進展了。

Back in Germany, Bethmann has finally come around.

他們開始讓奧地利人了解「停在貝爾格萊德」計畫。

They're starting to make progress with the Austrians on the Halt in Belgrade plan.

英國人甚至說他們支持這個計畫。

The British have even said that this plan has their support.

但貝希托爾德不肯接受它，

But Berchtold won't accept it,

因為俄羅斯人還沒答應停止動員。

can't accept it unless the Russians agree to halt their mobilization.

於是我們碰上了第一次世界大戰的死胡同。

And here we hit the Catch-22 of the First World War.

這是蒸汽火車的時代，

This is the age of the train,

物資流動和時間表主宰著軍事思考。

the period where logistics and timetables dominated military thinking.

歐洲各處，都認為只要你能趕在敵軍到達戰場前

All around Europe, it was thought that if you could just get your army

就先抵達戰場，

to the battlefield while the other guy's forces were still arriving,

你將戰無不勝。

you'd crush them every time.

所向披靡。

You'd win without contest.

我們不久才看到奧地利的例子─動員要花好幾個禮拜。

And as we've seen with the Austrians, mobilization can take weeks.

要把現代軍隊的百萬雄兵移來移去

It is a Herculean task to coordinate and move the millions of men

簡直是一項浩大的工程。

that made up a modern army.

如果俄羅斯接受了並讓她的軍隊靜坐一旁，

And if Russia acquiesces and has her army stand down,

他們將會遠遠地被甩在後頭。

they will be impossibly behind.

如果他們停止動員，然後奧地利或德國決定發動攻擊，

If they stop mobilization and then Austria or Germany decide to attack,

他們一發子彈都沒用到就要吃敗仗了。

they'll have lost the war without a fight.

所以俄羅斯不能停止動員。

So Russia can't stop mobilization.

但若俄羅斯動員了，德國也要動員，

But if Russia mobilizes, that means Germany has to mobilize too

否則他們也會陷入同樣的兩難。

or face the same dilemma.

現在，德國已經動員了，

And now with Germany mobilized,

那法國還能不動員嗎？

what can France do but mobilize themselves?

畢竟，俄法戰爭(Franco-Russian War, 1812)給了他們難忘的教訓─

After all, the Franco-Russian War taught them a hard, bitter lesson

當你的大軍太慢抵達戰場時，會發生什麼事，

about what happens when you get your army to the field too slowly,

而他們發誓永不重蹈覆轍。

and they will not be making that mistake again.

於是骨牌開始倒下。

And so the dominoes start to fall.

但還有人嘗試挽回僵局，

But there's one last attempt,

阻止那一連串導致世界陷入大戰

one last try to stop that crushing chain of causality

陷入大戰的因果。

leading the world inextricably to war.

波塔萊斯(Portales)，一位處在悲劇舞台當中的可憐的德國外交官，

Portales, the poor German diplomat playing a bit part in a tragedy

他想要避免戰爭，但他沒有能力。

that he has the desire but not the means to avert,

他與薩宗諾夫最後一次會面。

has one last meeting with Sazonov.

他告訴薩宗諾夫：「取消總動員吧。」

He says to Sazonov, “Call off the general mobilization.”

薩宗諾夫說：「不行。」

And Sazonov says, “No.”

波塔萊斯一再懇求他：

Portales pleads,

「看在老天的份上啊！這場戰爭不會有贏家。

“For God's sake, there will be no winner in this war.

我們要是一戰，就會導致革命爆發。

“If we fight, it'll be a revolution.

君主專制將會瓦解。

“It will be the end of monarchy.

我們兩個人都死定了！

“It will be the end of us both!

拜託你，取消這個鬧劇吧！」

Won't you please call off this madness?”

然後薩宗諾夫說：「不行。」

And Sazonov says, “No.”

波塔萊斯跪下來，說：

Portales drops to his knees and says,

「你如果這樣做，歐洲將會見識一場大屠殺。

“If you do this, it will be slaughter.

我以一切善知良理的名義拜託你，

“I beg of you in the name of all that is right and decent,

取消總動員吧！」

call off this mobilization.”

然後薩宗諾夫說：「不行。」

And Sazonov says, “No.”

於是波塔萊斯站起來，從口袋裡拿出一張紙，

Then Portales rises to his feet and takes a piece of paper from his pocket,

說：「既然這樣，先生，我必須通知你，我們現在要打仗了。」

and says, “In that case, sir, I have the honor to inform you that we're at war.”

他哽咽著，難以安撫自己，說：

He stilled, struggling to collect himself, saying,

「我從沒想過我會這樣子離開俄羅斯。

“Never thought I'd be leaving Russia like this.

我不知道我要怎麼打包回家。」