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    [♪ ♪ 音樂]

  • [male narrator] The 24th of July, 1914.

    1914年7月24日

  • It's late at night.

    夜深人靜。

  • A group of haggard-looking men sit in a dim room in the ministry in Belgrade.

    一群面容憔悴的男人坐在貝爾格萊德部所的一間幽暗的房間裡。

  • One of them holds the Austrian ultimatum in his hands.

    其中一人手持奧地利寄來的最後通牒。

  • They've spent the day debating how to reply.

    他們花了一整天爭執著要怎麼回覆。

  • Defeated, they're about to give in to all demands.

    無計可施的他們,即將全盤接受奧地利的要求。

  • A note is slipped under the door.

    一張紙條從門底下送了進來。

  • It says that the Russians have started to mobilize.

    上面寫道,俄羅斯人已經開始動員了。

  • They change their reply, and the final act begins.

    他們改了草擬的回覆,於是最後一幕開始了。

  • In their reply, the Serbians agree to nine out of ten Austrian demands.

    在他們的回覆裡,塞爾維亞人接受奧地利的十項要求中的九項。

  • They only refuse to allow Austrian officials to have police powers within Serbia.

    他們只拒絕奧地利警方在塞爾維亞境內享有警察權而已。

  • But their reply is a masterstroke,

    但這封回信真是傑出的一筆,

  • an act of genius in the way it concludes.

    它以高明的方式作結。

  • For, at the end, it says that if the Austrians don't find their terms to be fair,

    它在最後寫道,如果奧地利人覺得他們的條件不公平,

  • the Serbians are more than willing to submit to the resolution of a conference.

    塞爾維亞人非常樂意在國際會議上接受調解。

  • But if you'll remember, the Austrians hate conferences.

    但如果你還記得,奧地利人恨透了國際會議。

  • They are always getting out-voted at those things.

    他們怎麼投票都輸人家。

  • Well, no more.

    這次不能再輸了。

  • Not this time.

    他們對塞爾維亞的回覆火冒三丈,

  • They are livid at the Serbian reply,

    但亦如往常,他們轉向盟友德國請求建議。

  • but like always, they turn to their German allies for advice.

    皇帝還在海上,

  • The Kaiser is still at sea,

    所以奧地利的外交大臣貝希托爾德(Berchtold)跑去諮詢貝特曼-霍爾韋格(Bethmann-Hollweg)

  • so Austrian's foreign minister Berchtold goes to consult Bethmann Hollweg

    和毛奇(Moltke),德國陸軍元帥。

  • and Moltke, the head of the German army.

    他們暴跳如雷。

  • They are apoplectic.

    他們說:「搞什麼?

  • They say, "What?

    你還沒宣戰嗎?!

  • You haven't declared war already?!

    以經過了一個月了,

  • “A month has gone by.

    快點宣戰!

  • Get on with it!

    這不是我們所說好的,

  • This isn't what we agreed to.

    我們現在正失去歐洲人民的同情啊!」

  • We're losing the sympathies of the people of Europe."

    其實,大公遇刺後,

  • You see, after the assassination of the Archduke,

    歐洲輿論壓倒性地反對塞爾維亞。

  • public opinion in Europe weighed heavily against Serbia.

    政治上,當時沒有人能夠站出來挺他們。

  • It was politically impossible for anybody to support them then.

    但一個月已經過了,

  • But now a month has passed,

    而這則回覆,滿足了奧地利人大部分的要求,

  • and this reply, this meeting of most of the Austrian demands

    並且打開了調解的大門,使得塞爾維亞人看起來比較有理性。

  • and this offer for mediation, made the Serbs seem like the reasonable party.

    畢竟,奧地利還能強求什麼?

  • After all, what more could Austria want?

    所以貝希托爾德帶著德國人的怒斥

  • So with the rebukes of the Germans driving him,

    回到了奧匈帝國

  • Berchtold returns to Austria-Hungary

    並首次和康拉德·馮·赫岑多夫(Conrad von Hötzendorf),

  • and for the first time speaks with Conrad vontzendorf,

    奧地利軍隊的總參謀長,報備。

  • the Chief of Staff of the Austrian army.

    他一樣暴跳如雷。

  • He too is apoplectic.

    「什麼?宣戰?

  • "What, declare war?

    你在開玩笑嗎?

  • Are you kidding me?

    你想這樣做,你幾個禮拜前早就該跟我們講了!

  • You needed to tell us weeks ago if that's what you wanted to do!

    奧地利軍隊要等到8月14日才能夠上戰場,還要好幾個禮拜啊!

  • The Austrian army won't be ready for war until the 14th of August, weeks from now!

    加上,我們連要對誰動員都不知道。

  • Plus, we don't even know who we're mobilizing against.

    你想要我們準備和塞爾維亞打仗?

  • You want us to prepare for war with Serbia?

    俄羅斯人已經對我們動員了,甭想!

  • Yeah, not when Russia's mobilized against us, we aren't.

    你若能確保俄羅斯中立,我們才或許,

  • Get us a guarantee of Russian neutrality and then maybe,

    或許,可以談談對塞爾維亞人動員。」

  • maybe, we can talk about mobilizing against the Serbs."

    沮喪的貝希托爾德,一面被德國人壓向戰爭,

  • Despondent, pressured toward war by the Germans,

    一面被總參謀長告知奧地利還沒準備好,

  • told that Austria isn't ready by his own Chief of Staff,

    回家深思。

  • Berchtold returns home and begins to think.

    幾個小時後,他開始說服自己還有辦法走出這淌渾水。

  • As the hours grow later, he starts to convince himself there's way out of this.

    他開始推想,宣戰不一定等同於作戰。

  • He starts to reason that declaring war isn't necessarily the same as being at war.

    所以如果他現在宣戰,

  • And so maybe if he declares war now,

    他可以安撫德國人,並且

  • he'll placate the Germans and be able to use that threat

    威脅塞爾維亞人投降

  • to get the Serbs to capitulate

    完全不用奧地利軍隊準備好就可以結束戰爭。

  • before he even needs the Austrian army to be ready to fight.

    現在,我們當然可以看破這種垂死掙扎的思考邏輯。

  • Now we can all see this for the desperate rationalization that it is.

    我們都曾經深陷膠著之中,

  • We've all at one time or another gotten ourselves into an impossible situation

    然後用某個瘋狂的解決方案騙自己,

  • and let ourselves believe in some wild, hair-brained solution

    說這樣一定可以搞定一切。

  • that'll surely fix everything.

    只不過當我們那樣做時,世界的命運通常不是處在千鈞一髮之際。

  • Only when we do that, the fate of the world isn't usually hanging in a balance.

    於是,7月28日,

  • And so, on the 28th of July,

    奧匈帝國向塞爾維亞宣戰,

  • Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia,

    同時貝希托爾德深信自己可以用宣戰帶來和平。

  • with Berchtold all the while believing he's going to bring peace by declaring war.

    但那天早上,

  • But that morning, the morning of the 28th,

    德國皇帝威廉二世回到了波茨坦(Potsdam)。

  • Kaiser Wilhelm II got back to Potsdam.

    同一天早上,皇帝讀了塞爾維亞對

  • That very morning, the Kaiser read the Serbian response

    奧地利最後通牒的回覆,並低吟,

  • to the Austria Ultimatum and uttered,

    「這樣子一來,所有打仗的理由都沒了。」

  • "With this, every reason for war drops away."

    而這,就是在戰前瘋狂的七月天中最慘烈的悲劇之一。

  • And here is one of the great tragedies of those frantic July days leading to the war.

    這個男人,威廉二世,儘管他多麼無能,犯了多少錯,

  • This man, Wilhelm II, for all his inadequacies, for all his failings,

    總算站出來嘗試成為他應該成為的男人,

  • for once in his life steps up and tries to become the man he should be,

    一個值得統治全世界最強大的國家的男人。

  • the man who deserves to rule the most powerful nation in the world.

    而他差一點就成功了。

  • And he comes so close.

    但儘管他多麼努力,已經來不及了。

  • And yet, despite his best attempt, he's too late.

    世界並沒有獎賞他的努力,

  • The world doesn't reward his effort,

    一切將陷入渾沌,大戰到來,然後他的帝國將瓦解。

  • things spiral into chaos, war comes, and his empire will fall.

    德國皇帝嘗試展開和平會談,

  • The Kaiser tries to open peace talks,

    或者是舉辦國際會議,

  • perhaps even hold a conference,

    但奧地利人可不吃這套。

  • but the Austrians will have none of it.

    所以他提出了一個新穎的解決方案:

  • So he proposes a novel solution:

    停在貝爾格萊德。

  • Halt in Belgrade.

    貝爾格萊德,塞爾維亞的首都,距奧地利邊境沒幾英里。

  • Belgrade, the Serbian capital, is just a few miles from the Austrian border.

    如果奧地利軍隊佔領了首都,

  • If the Austrian army occupies the capital,

    他們可以宣布戰勝並且保留顏面,

  • they can declare victory and save face

    並且給歐洲各國看,他們並不打算吞併塞爾維亞。

  • while showing the rest of Europe that they don't plan to annex Serbia.

    而且如果他們夠快,俄羅斯人會來不及介入戰爭。

  • And they can do it quickly enough to perhaps keep the Russians out of the war.

    但這個提議必須通過貝特曼,

  • But this proposal has to go through Bethmann,

    而貝特曼人在柏林。

  • and Bethmann is in Berlin.

    釐清一下:現在是1914年,所以儘管令人難以置信,

  • Now get this: It's 1914, so as impossible as it seems,

    柏林和波茨坦之間沒有電話線。

  • there was no telephone line between Berlin and Potsdam.

    所以貝特曼沒辦法直接答覆。

  • So Bethmann can't reply directly.

    他對「停在貝爾格勒」計畫非常懷疑,

  • He's pretty skeptical of the Halt in Belgrade plan,

    但與其開去波茨坦找皇帝說明白,

  • but instead of making the drive to Potsdam for clarification,

    他傳給在奧地利的德國情報員,

  • he passes it along to German agents in Austria

    交代說不要逼奧地利人採取這個方案。

  • with the instructions not to press the Austrians too hard to adopt it.

    而且他也沒提到這個方案是德國皇帝親自給的。

  • And he doesn't even mention that it comes from the Kaiser himself.

    同時,在俄羅斯,

  • Meanwhile, in Russia,

    薩宗諾夫收到通報,奧地利人砲轟貝爾格萊德。

  • Sazonov gets reports of Austrians shelling Belgrade.

    當然,這些通報都是假的。

  • These reports are false, of course.

    奧地利軍隊在8月14日之前還沒辦法作戰,

  • The Austrian army won't be ready to do anything until August 14th,

    但他怎麼可能知道呢?

  • but he has no way of knowing that.

    於是,他,反對俄羅斯全面動員的最後一人,

  • So he, one of the last men opposed to full Russian mobilization,

    不再反戰了

  • lets the dam break

    並且自己宣布俄羅斯軍隊全面動員。

  • and declares himself for a full mobilization of the Russian army.

    他和俄羅斯參謀總長亞努科維奇(Yanukovych)

  • He and the Russian Chief of Staff, Yanukovych,

    拜見沙皇,並說服他時候到了。

  • go to see the czar and convince him that the time has come.

    總動員的命令傳下去了。

  • General mobilization is ordered.

    夜幕降臨。

  • Night falls.

    凌晨一點,沙皇輾轉難眠。

  • It's 1:00 AM and the czar can't sleep.

    他發了一封電報給德國皇帝,說:

  • He sends a telegram to the Kaiser of Germany and it reads thus:

    「我很高興你回來了。

  • “I'm glad you're back.

    在這個緊張萬分的時候,我請求你幫我。

  • In this serious moment, I appeal to you to help me.

    一場不義的戰爭將降臨一個弱小的國家。

  • An ignoble war has been declared to a weak country.

    全俄羅斯的憤慨都壓在我的雙肩。

  • The indignation in Russia shared fully by me is enormous.

    我可以預見,很快的,

  • “I foresee that very soon

    我將無法承受這壓力,

  • “I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure forced upon me

    並被迫採取極端措施,導致戰火爆發。

  • and be forced to take extreme measures, which will lead to war.

    為了避免歐洲大戰這種浩劫,

  • To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war,

    我以我們的老交情懇求你,盡你所能,

  • “I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can

    不要讓你的盟友做得太超過。

  • to stop your allies from going too far.

    小尼 (Nicky)」

  • Nicky.”

    記住,這兩個男人是堂兄弟。

  • Now you have to remember that these two men were cousins.

    他們是朋友。

  • They were friends.

    所有外交的管道都失敗了。

  • All the avenues of diplomacy had failed.

    整個國家的標準行政機制正把他們推向戰爭。

  • All the standard bureaucratic mechanisms of the state were driving them to war.

    所以他們以堂兄弟,以朋友的身分彼此聯絡,

  • So they reached out to each other, as cousins, as friends,

    看看他們兩個人直接交涉

  • to see if the two of them dealing directly, person-to-person,

    可不可以避免這場戰爭。

  • could avoid this war.

    而只在這帝國日薄西山之際,

  • And in a touch that could only come from these twilight days of empire

    他們不以沙皇或皇帝稱呼彼此。

  • did they not refer to each other as Czar or Kaiser.

    他們甚至不以威廉和尼古拉相稱,

  • They don't even refer to each other as Wilhelm and Nicholas,

    而是以小威(Willy)和小尼(Nicky)相稱。

  • but rather as Willy and Nicky.

    德國皇帝一樣醒著,而他回信了。

  • The Kaiser is awake too and he responds.

    一連串的電報反覆傳遞。

  • A flurry of telegrams get sent back and forth.

    在這些回覆之後,

  • At the end of these correspondences,

    尼古拉拿起電話,打給亞努科維奇

  • Nicholas picks up the phone, calls Yanukovych

    叫他取消總動員。

  • and tells him to call off the general mobilization.

    亞努科維奇一時支支吾吾,

  • Yanukovych splutters and starts to reel off all the things

    取消總動員的所有複雜程序使他焦頭爛額,

  • that cancelling mobilization means they're going to have to do,

    但沙皇堅決取消,並掛了電話。

  • but the czar saysCancel it,” and hangs up the phone.

    30號早上,薩宗諾夫得知沙皇的決定。

  • On the morning of the 30th, Sazonov hears what the czar has done.

    他被嚇壞了。

  • He's shocked.

    他找了杜馬(Duma,俄羅斯議會)的首相,

  • He pulls in the head of the Duma, the Russian parliament,

    還有東正教的宗主教(Patriarch),

  • and the patriarch of the Orthodox Church

    找沙皇開會。

  • and they go in for a knockdown, drag-out meeting with the czar.

    整個房間水洩不通,燥熱不堪,說來說去毫無進展,

  • The room is crowded, it's hot, talks are getting nowhere,

    然後尼古拉獨自走向窗戶,眺望窗外的聖彼得堡,深思。

  • and then Nicholas moves off alone, staring out the window at St. Petersburg, trying to think.

    他反思了幾分鐘後,

  • After a few minutes of reflection, coming to no conclusion,

    一位身旁的侍從官(aide-de-camp)說:

  • a young man, an aide to Kemp, standing near the czar says,

    「陛下,我們知道做這個決定對你來說多麼艱難。」

  • Majesty, we know how difficult it must be for you to decide.”

    無意間,這些話割傷了沙皇。

  • Without intention, these words cut.

    尼古拉一直被認為是一位弱小、優柔寡斷又沒出息的領導人,

  • Nicolas had always been called the weak, indecisive, feckless leader,

    而他恨透了這樣的名聲。

  • and he hated it.

    他想要甩開幾年來人們對他的各種辱罵。

  • He wanted to shake off all those names people had been calling him for so many years.

    他想要證明給世界看,他不是一位軟弱無力

  • He wanted to show the world he wasn't some wishy-washy prince

    沒辦法下主意的王子。

  • who couldn't make up his mind.

    於是,因為一位連名字都已經失傳的

  • And so like that, with the words from some aide to Kemp

    侍從官所說的話,

  • whose name history has forgotten,

    尼古拉轉身說:「我會簽下命令。」

  • Nicolas turns around and says, “I will sign the order.”

    在德國,貝特曼總算有進展了。