He had two faces, one looking to the future and the other looking to the past.

祂有兩張臉，一張眺望未來、另一張回顧過去。

And so, we see the end of the year as a time of reflection, the beginning of the next, an opportunity to turn over a new leaf.

正因如此，人們總會把年末視為檢視自我、下個開端，以及重頭來過的時機。

But most of us are doing it wrong.

只不過，大部分的人都用錯了方法。

The New Year's resolution has long been seen as a chance to set goals and change our behavior.

大家一直以來都把新年視為訂定新目標和改善習慣的大好時機。

Last year, 45% of Americans said they usually make a resolution.

根據統計，去年約有 45% 的美國人表示他們通常會許下新年希望。

And that they're mostly about losing weight, doing regular exercise, or saving money.

大部分都和減重、規律運動或存錢有關。

But only 8% of those people actually achieved their resolution.

但僅僅 8% 的人確實達成了自己的期望。

I've never been part of that 8%.

而我從來就不是那 8% 中之一。

Nope.

完全不是。

American psychologist, Amy Cuddy, writes that New Year's resolutions are "riddled with psychological traps that work against us."

名為 Amy Cuddy 的美國心理學家曾寫道：「新年新希望中充滿著對自己不利的心理陷阱。」

Here's why.

原因如下：

First of all, most resolutions are too ambitious.

第一，大部分的願望都太雄心壯志了。

Say you resolve to go to the gym 3 times a week.

假設你決定一週去健身房 3 次，

It sounds okay, I mean I could easily sit and watch Netflix three times a week, so why not make that gym time?

聽起來不難，畢竟每週坐下來三次看 Netflix 不是難事，所以何不把看 Netflix 的時間改為健身？

But it's totally different and more of a commitment than you may realize, especially if it's a new behavior.

但這或許跟你所想的大不同，也需要比想像多的投入，尤其如果它是個全新的習慣。

We often fall victim to the planning fallacy, where we underestimate the time it takes to complete a task.

我們很容易成為「計畫謬誤」的受害者，總會低估完成一件任務所需要的時間。

Sooner or later, but probably sooner, you'll miss a gym visit and then you've failed.

你遲早（大概是早）會少去健身房一次，這樣你就是失敗了。

Repeated failure makes us lose confidence, and it becomes more likely that we'll stop.

一再重複的失敗會讓我們失去信心，讓我們更容易放棄。

Typical New Year's resolutions are too results-orientated.

典型的新年希望太著重於結果。

They focus on a lofty ambition, like "quit smoking", without considering the process, the steps we need to take to get there.

它們專注於一個如「戒菸」的遠大目標，完全忽略了必經的過程以及達成所需的步驟。

They're also too long-term, which makes goals difficult to imagine and relate to.

它們通常也是太長期的目標，讓人們難以想像和感同身受。

Sometimes, it's hard to imagine what life will be like in one year's time.

有時候，要想像一年之後的生活會怎麼樣並不簡單。

We'll have finished a whole new season of "Game of Thrones" by then.

說不定到那時候，我們都追完全新一季的《權力遊戲》了。

And often, resolutions are too negatively focused.

還有，新年希望的內容都太負面了。

We want to get rid of things, bad habits or weight, rather than build upon things that we're good at.

我們總是想要丟棄某些事物，例如壞習慣或體重，而不是想要精進自己的能力。

And this is why New Year's resolutions can be bad for us.

這就是新年希望可能帶來負面影響的原因。

Setting goals like this can lead to learned helplessness where we give up what we're capable of doing after we repeatedly fail.

這樣設立目標容易產生「習得性無助感」，讓我們在經歷數次失敗後選擇放棄有能力做的事。

So... should we still make New Year's resolutions?

那麼... 我們還是要繼續許下新年希望嗎？

Sure, just do it smartly.

當然要，只是要聰明地許願。

Back in the 1920s, Bluma Zeigarnik found that people have a better memory for tasks they haven't yet completed.

1920 年代，Bluma Zeigarnik 發現人們比較容易記得尚未完成的事情。

It's now called the Zeigarnik effect.

這現在被稱為「蔡戈尼效應」。

So, make your resolution a series of short-term tasks with a positive focus that you can keep tweaking towards your larger goal.

所以你應該把目標定為一個個有正向焦點的小任務，可以在期間不斷微調以達成最終的大目標。

Start a to-do list, figure out your approach, and it's much more likely you'll feel a niggling urge to complete the little things.

制訂待辦事項清單，找出你的解決方法，自然而然會有股驅使自己去達成這些小任務的力量。

And once you do, Richard Wiseman writes that planning a reward gives you a sense of achievement and keeps you on track.

Richard Wiseman 建議，給完成小任務排定獎勵計畫，可以提升成就感並確保自己繼續努力。

This way, you can look back and feel accomplished about everything you've done.

如此一來，你便可以回顧一切並享受這帶來的成就感。

And you can look forward towards your goal all until next January rolls around.

你同時也能繼續朝著目標前進，直到下一個一月的到來。

See you next week!

我們下週再會！