Name: 股市剛崩盤！快趁便宜買進！ (The Stock Market Just Crashed - Buy The Dip)
Uploaded: 2026-03-29T02:50:42.000Z
Duration: 17 min 6 s

程度副詞

The stock market just finished one of its worst weeks of the year, and

股市剛結束今年最差的一週之一，

everybody's focused in on which stocks are falling but the part that most investors are overlooking has nothing to do with stocks and has everything to do with the bond market.

大家都只關注哪些股票在跌，但大多數投資者忽略的部分跟股票一點關係都沒有，而是跟債券市場有關。

Because for the first time in 2026 investors are now pricing in a more than 50% chance, a 52% probability that the Federal Reserve Bank will have to raise interest rates, not cut interest rates, in 2026.

因為在 2026 年，投資者首次預期美國聯邦準備理事會將有超過 50% 的機率，也就是 52% 的可能性，會不得不升息，而不是降息。

Now, if you've been subscribed to this channel, that's probably not too surprising for you because we've been talking about this potentially happening, but

如果你一直訂閱我們的頻道，這可能不會讓你太意外，因為我們一直有在討論這件事可能會發生，

now because investors are concerned about the Federal Reserve Bank having to raise interest rates more in 2026, it has the stock market hurting because of that.

但現在因為投資者擔心美國聯邦準備理事會 2026 年不得不升息，這也讓股市是以受創。

Because oil prices keep going higher, because inflation keeps getting revised higher, while at the same time the economy continues to slow down, and

因為油價不斷上漲，通貨膨脹不斷被向上修正，但同時經濟卻持續放緩，

this is where investors have concerns as to what's going to be coming next.

這就是投資者開始擔心接下來會發生什麼事的地方。

So in this video I want to talk about what this means for your money, your investments, your retirement, but

所以在這支影片裡，我想跟大家聊聊這對你的錢、你的投資、你的退休生活有什麼影響，但是

also what this means for things like your mortgage rate.

也會對你的房貸利率造成什麼影響。

When the United States attacked Iran, the first thing that happened was oil prices shot up.

美國攻擊伊朗時，第一件事就是油價飆漲。

Now, the reason why is because the Middle East is not only a big supplier and producer of oil but also they're a big controller of the global supply and shipping of oil because Iran controls something called the Strait of Hormuz which is where 20% of the world's oil flows through, which means it has become significantly more difficult to get oil from one part of the world to the other which is why oil is more expensive.

原因是什麼呢？因為中東不只是石油的大供應商和生產國，他們也掌控著全球石油的供應和運輸，因為伊朗控制著荷姆茲海峽，世界上 20% 的石油都通過這裡，這意味著將石油從世界某處運到另一處變得更加困難，這就是為什麼石油更貴。

High oil prices mean high gas prices, it means higher diesel prices, it means higher shipping costs, it means higher airfare costs, and

高油價意味著高汽油價格、高機油價格、高運輸成本，還有高機票價格，

that means groceries become more expensive because of higher oil.

這也意味著因為油價上漲，雜貨也變得更貴了。

Because we've already been concerned about inflation even before the United States attacked Iran because we were getting the reports that inflation was going up, not down, in 2026 before these attacks started.

因為在美國攻擊伊朗之前，我們就已經擔心通貨膨脹了，因為我們收到報告說，在這些攻擊開始之前，2026 年的通貨膨脹正在上升，而不是下降。

Now that the attacks have started and oil prices have gone up, the concerns are that inflation is going to get even worse.

現在攻擊開始了，油價也上漲了，大家擔心的是通貨膨脹會變得更糟。

Because the Federal Reserve Bank is the central bank here in the United States, and

因為美國聯邦準備理事會是美國這裡的中央銀行，

what that means is their job is to control our money system.

這意味著他們的工作是控制我們的貨幣系統。

Their job is to monitor money, and really they have two roles.

他們的工作是監控貨幣，實際上他們有兩個職責。

Number one is to control inflation, but also number two is to keep the economy strong.

第一個是控制通貨膨脹，第二個是維持經濟強勁。

Well, normally when you have concerns about inflation, when there's high inflation, what the Federal Reserve Bank normally does is they raise interest rates.

嗯，通常當大家擔心通貨膨脹時，當通貨膨脹很高時，美國聯邦準備理事會通常會提高利率。

That's what we saw happen between 2022 and 2025.

這就是我們在 2022 年到 2025 年之間看到的情況。

After we had this huge inflation crisis from the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates aggressively which is why mortgage rates went up, car loan rates went up, and

在經歷了疫情造成的巨大通貨膨脹危機後，美國聯邦準備理事會大幅提高了利率，這也是為什麼房貸利率、汽車貸款利率都上漲了，

when they raised interest rates that was there to try to cool down inflation.

當他們提高利率時，那是為了試圖抑制通貨膨脹。

When you have a slow economy, you have a recession like we saw happen during the pandemic in 2020, that's when the Federal Reserve Bank cuts interest rates.

當經濟緩慢時，就會出現衰退，就像我們在 2020 年疫情期間看到的那樣，這時候美國聯邦準備理事會就會降低利率。

Cutting interest rates mean it's cheaper to borrow money, more people get a mortgage, more people buy cars, and

降低利率代表借錢變便宜，更多人會買房、更多人會買車，

And so in 2020 the pandemic hit, the economy was shut down, and

所以到了 2020 年，疫情爆發，經濟停擺，

interest rates were brought down to the lowest levels that we have seen in history which stimulated the economy.

利率降到了歷史新低，這刺激了經濟。

But the consequence to cutting interest rates is high potential inflation.

但降低利率的後果就是可能導致嚴重的通貨膨脹。

2020 interest rates were cut, the economy was then stimulated, and then inflation became a problem.

2020 年利率降低，經濟隨之受到刺激，然後通貨膨脹就成了問題。

2022 inflation became a problem, and that's when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates.

2022 年通貨膨脹成了問題，這時候美國聯邦準備理事會就開始提高利率。

They continued to raise interest rates to 2024, 2025, and now they've been cutting interest rates.

他們持續提高利率到 2024、2025 年，而現在他們又開始降低利率了。

They've been cutting interest rates because we've been seeing a slowing job market, we've been seeing a slowing economy, and

他們一直在降息，因為我們看到就業市場正在放緩，經濟也在放緩，

now we're in a tough situation where on one hand the economy is slowing.

而現在我們處於一種兩難的局面，一方面經濟正在放緩。

Our most recent data show that our economy has still been growing but not as fast as it was before, while at the same time the job market is severely slowing down, while at the same time inflation is picking up.

我們最新的數據顯示，我們的經濟仍在成長，但不如以往快速，同時就業市場嚴重放緩，同時通貨膨脹正在回升。

High inflation means we need higher interest rates.

高通貨膨脹意味著我們需要更高的利率。

Slowing economy means we need lower interest rates.

經濟放緩意味著我們需要更低的利率。

Well, the Fed can't cut interest rates and raise interest rates at the exact same time so they have to pick what they're going to do, and

嗯，聯準會不能同時降息又升息，所以他們必須選擇要做什麼，

the decision that they make is going to impact somebody negatively, but

而他們做出的決定將會對某些人產生負面影響，

that also creates potential investment opportunities, and

但這也創造了潛在的投資機會，

that's where I want to dig a little bit deeper.

By the way, we have been covering all of this in market briefs.

順帶一提，我們一直在市場快訊裡涵蓋這些內容。

Again, market briefs is my free financial newsletter for investors where every day we're working to break down what's happening with things like the economy, housing, stocks, crypto, and

再次強調，市場快訊是我為投資者提供的免費金融電子報，我們每天都會努力將經濟、房地產、股市、加密貨幣和

global markets into a fun, witty, and easy-to-read newsletter.

全球市場的動態，轉化成一份有趣、機智又好讀的電子報。

You can read it in less than five minutes every morning, and it's completely free.

你每天早上不到五分鐘就能讀完，而且完全免費。

So if you have not joined market briefs yet, I invite you to join because it's free, and

所以如果你還沒加入市場快訊，我邀請你來加入，因為它是免費的，

if you don't love it, you can unsubscribe at any time, and

如果你不喜歡，隨時都可以取消訂閱，

I have the link for you down in the description below.

我已經把連結放在下面的說明欄了。

And this is where the Federal Reserve Bank now has to make a decision on what they are going to do.

這就是美國聯邦準備理事會現在必須做出決定的地方。

Up until essentially now, the Federal Reserve Bank had said time and time again that we're going to cut interest rates in 2026 because we want to stimulate the economy, we want to stimulate the job market because the job market is not so good, and

到目前為止，美國聯邦準備理事會一直說，我們要在 2026 年降息，因為我們想刺激經濟，我們想刺激就業市場，因為就業市場不是那麼好，

we want to encourage the economy to grow.

Well, now investors for the first time in years are saying, "I don't know if that's true." It seems like we're going to have to raise interest rates, and

不過，現在投資者好幾年來第一次說：「我不知道這是不是真的。」看來我們可能得要升息了，

I've told the story a few times, I'm going to say it again because while history doesn't exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme.

我講過好幾次這個故事了，我會再說一次，因為歷史雖然不會完全重演，但總有相似之處。

The last time we've seen something like this happen was the early 1970s.

我們上次看到類似的情況發生，是在 1970 年代初期。

In the early 1970s we faced an inflation problem because in 1971 then-President Richard Nixon took the United States dollar off of the gold standard which meant now the government could spend an unlimited amount of money, the central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank could print an unlimited amount of money, and

在 1970 年代初期，我們面臨了通貨膨脹的問題，因為在 1971 年，時任總統的理查尼克森讓美元脫離金本位，這意味著政府可以無限花錢，中央銀行，也就是美國聯邦準備理事會，可以無限印鈔票，

But the consequence was all that money printing caused inflation.

但後果是，所有這些印鈔票的行為導致了通貨膨脹。

So in the early 1970s we had an inflation problem because of all the money printing that happened.

所以，在 1970 年代初期，因為當時所有的印鈔票行為，我們出現了通貨膨脹的問題。

After the inflation problem from the money printing, we then saw an oil crisis around 1973, 1974 because the United States got involved in a conflict in the Middle East which caused oil prices to spike.

在印鈔票導致的通貨膨脹問題之後，我們在 1973 年、1974 年左右又面臨了石油危機，因為美國捲入了中東的衝突，導致油價飆升。

So now we had an inflation problem coupled with high oil prices which made the inflation problem worse.

所以現在我們面臨通貨膨脹的問題，再加上高油價，讓通貨膨脹的問題更加嚴重。

And that was when in response the third thing happened which was the Federal Reserve Bank had to fight the inflation problem, and

這時候，作為回應，第三件事發生了，那就是美國聯邦準備理事會必須設法解決通貨膨脹的問題，

the way that the Fed fought the inflation problem then was they raised interest rates.

而聯準會當時對抗通貨膨脹的方法就是提高利率。

But it wasn't a slow gradual raising of interest rates, it was a drastic raising of interest rates to fight inflation and to save the dollar because the concern was all this inflation, all this money printing could destroy the dollar, it could cause hyperinflation, and

但這不是緩慢漸進的升息，而是大幅度的升息來對抗通膨，並拯救美元，因為大家擔心這麼嚴重的通膨和印鈔票行為會摧毀美元，導致惡性通膨，

so the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates all the way up to about 20%.

所以美國聯邦準備理事會把利率升到大約 20%。

Now to translate what that means, that meant if you wanted to get a 30-year mortgage, you were not going to get a 6% mortgage or a 7% mortgage, you were paying 18% a year on your mortgage.

現在來解釋一下這代表什麼，這意味著如果你想辦 30 年期的房貸，你不可能貸到 6% 或 7% 的利率，你房貸的年利率要付 18%。

That caused an economic slowdown, it caused a deep recession, it caused a lot of job losses, but

這造成了經濟放緩，造成了嚴重的衰退，造成了大量的失業。

Now the question and the concern is are we going to see something like that happen again because that in the '70s was a stagflation problem.

現在的問題和擔憂是，我們會不會又看到類似的事情發生？因為 70 年代的狀況是滯脹問題。

Stagflation is where you have high inflation and a slowing economy.

滯脹是指通貨膨脹很高，但經濟卻在放緩。

We've already kind of been seeing that happen.

我們其實已經有點看到這種情況發生了。

這問題從疫情開始就一直存在。

Because of all the money printing that happened, and

so what happened between 2020 to 2026 is wages went up but the cost of living went up even more.

所以從 2020 年到 2026 年，薪水漲了，但生活成本漲得更多。

You got a raise but your rent and your car prices and your groceries got more expensive than your raise.

你加薪了，但你的房租、車子和買菜的錢都比你的加薪還貴。

So the average person is effectively poorer today than they were before the pandemic statistically.

所以平均來說，統計上，現在的普通人比疫情前還要窮。

Well, now couple that with the oil crisis that we're seeing because of the Middle East.

嗯，再加上我們因為中東問題看到的油價危機。

Higher oil prices are going to make the inflation problem worse.

更高的油價會讓通貨膨脹的問題更嚴重。

And now this is why investors are saying we might have to raise interest rates in 2026.

這就是為什麼投資者說我們可能要在 2026 年升息。

President Trump has been hoping for lower interest rates.

川普總統一直希望利率能降低。

Even until very recently he's been saying we need lower interest rates.

一直到最近，他都還在說我們需要降低利率。

But the Federal Reserve Bank is actually not federal.

但美國聯邦準備理事會其實不是聯邦的。

That means they're supposed to make their own decisions separate from what the president says because their job is to protect money, not to protect the president.

這表示他們應該要獨立做出決定，不受總統的影響，因為他們的工作是保護金錢，而不是保護總統。

And so when you have the situation where you have high inflation and a slowing economy, that's called stagflation.

所以當你遇到高通貨膨脹加上經濟放緩的情況，這就叫做停滯性通貨膨脹。

It is the worst-case scenario because that means the prices of things are going up but people don't have jobs, and

這是最糟的情況，因為這意味著東西的價格在漲，但人們卻沒有工作，

And in that situation the Federal Reserve Bank has to decide are we going to save the economy or are we going to save the dollar.

在這種情況下，美國聯邦準備理事會必須決定是要拯救經濟還是要拯救美元。

We know how to protect ourselves against a recession.

我們知道如何保護自己免受經濟衰退的影響。

We've seen that happen again and again and again.

我們已經一次又一次地看到這種情況發生了。

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股市剛崩盤！快趁便宜買進！ (The Stock Market Just Crashed - Buy The Dip)

potential

pandemic

opportunity

situation