Name: 伊朗的真實戰略大揭露！為何美國無法贏得這場戰爭？| 中東危機深度解析 (Iran’s Strategy EXPOSED: Why The US Can’t Win This War | Middle East Crisis Explained)
Uploaded: 2026-03-28T23:07:51.000Z
Duration: 12 min 24 s
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Plenty to discuss, and joining us on set here is Ross Harrison.

很多事情可以討論，今天加入我們現場的是 Ross Harrison。

He is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., an author of "Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy." And joining us from Washington, D.C., Harlan Ullman, a former senior naval officer and chairman of the Kilauan Group.

他是華盛頓特區 Middle East Institute 的 senior fellow，也是《Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy》這本書的 author。另外，從華盛頓特區加入我們的是 Harlan Ullman，他曾是 senior naval officer，也是 Kilauan Group 的 chairman。

If I can begin with you, first of all, Ross, I mean, you've authored the book "Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy," wondering if you can try and decode their strategy in the war at this point in time.

Ross，我想先請教您，您寫了《Decoding Iran's Foreign Policy》這本書，想知道您能不能試著解讀他們現階段的 strategy。

and does it seem like it's confounding the United States at this point?

是的，Tom，這是個很好的問題。

I think what Iran is doing is taking a strategy that they actually developed over the last 30 or 40 years after the Iran-Iraq War, which was fought from 1980 to 1988, which was a strategy of diffusing their power across the region.

我認為伊朗正在採用的 strategy，是他們在 Iran-Iraq War（1980 年至 1988 年）之後，過去 30 到 40 年所發展出來的，也就是 diffusing their power 擴散其影響力到整個區域的 strategy。

And they did that in the failed states of Syria during the Syrian Civil War, in Lebanon with Hezbollah, with the Hashdashabih and PMUs in Iraq, and

他們在敘利亞內戰時期的 failed states 敘利亞、黎巴嫩的 Hezbollah、伊拉克的 Hashdashabih 和 PMUs，

以及葉門的 Houthis，都這麼做了。

And they distributed their power through those states.

他們透過這些國家來擴散權力。

And what we're seeing now is they're doing some of that now as well,

我們現在看到的是，他們現在也正在這麼做，

but they are also moving this sort of guerrilla strategy, what we call a diffusion strategy of pushing their power out across the region and making themselves a bigger target in a way, a harder target to hit.

但他們也在推動一種遊擊式的 strategy，也就是我們說的擴散 strategy，將他們的權力推向整個區域，讓自己成為一個更大的目標，一個更難擊中的目標。

They're taking that same strategy and moving it to the state level and pushing conflict into where we are sitting here in Doha, into Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain,

他們將相同的 strategy 運用到國家層級，並將衝突推向我們現在所在的杜哈、沙烏地阿拉伯、阿聯酋、巴林等地，

and doing that in order to create a political pressure.

They know they can't compete with the United States in terms of kinetic power or military power directly.

他們知道他們無法在動能或軍事力量上直接與美國競爭。

So what they're doing is, rather than dealing directly with us, they're creating pressure on the United States politically by raising the price of oil,

所以他們採取的做法是，與其直接對抗我們，不如透過提高油價來對美國施加政治壓力，

and then the Strait of and then obviously the Hormuz Strait obviously plays into that.

然後當然，荷姆茲海峽也扮演了關鍵角色。

Yeah, and it seems to be working at this point in time.

是的， at this point in time 似乎奏效了。

Harlan, how difficult is it for the US to try and combat that strategy, as Ross was talking about, this diffusion strategy from Iran, distributing their power right across a vast, vast territory?

Harlan，就像 Ross 所說的，伊朗這種將權力擴散到廣大區域的 diffusion strategy，美國要如何應對，難度有多高？

Iran has learned from history how do you defeat the United States.

伊朗從歷史學到如何擊敗美國。

You defeat the United States winning by not losing.

你透過不輸來贏得美國的勝利。

The American military won every battle in Vietnam.

美軍在越南贏得了每一場戰役。

In the second Iraq War, the American military won every battle.

在第二次伊拉克戰爭中，美軍贏得了每一場戰役。

In Afghanistan, the Taliban could say, "You have all the watches.

在阿富汗，塔利班可以說：「你們擁有所有手錶。

我們擁有所有時間。」誰贏了？

And so what Iran is doing very cleverly, because militarily they are hugely inferior to the United States, is winning by not losing.

所以伊朗做得非常聰明，因為軍事上他們遠不如美國，他們的策略就是不輸就贏。

As Ross says, turn up the pressure in terms of gasoline prices,

就像 Ross 說的，提高汽油價格的壓力，

The stock markets are down about 10% from their highs just two weeks ago.

股市在兩週前的高點下跌了大約 10%。

That puts enormous political pressure on Donald Trump at a time when you have a Congress that can't even agree about opening up the government.

這給了唐納·川普巨大的政治壓力，而當時國會甚至無法就重開政府達成一致。

So the strategy of winning by not losing is how weaker powers prevail.

所以，不輸就贏的策略是較弱勢力取勝的方式。

And since the Korean War, every war the United States has entered in which the other side has taken the strategy of winning by not losing, we have lost.

自韓戰以來，美國參與的每一場戰爭，如果對方採取不輸就贏的策略，我們都輸了。

I wish Donald Trump had a better sense of history.

我希望唐納·川普能對歷史有更好的認識。

Just on that, so it seems like what Harlan's saying there is that Iran's willing to just grind this out and stay on the fight as long as possible.

關於這一點，聽起來 Harlan 的意思是伊朗願意這樣耗下去，盡可能長時間地維持戰鬥。

That sort of goes to the point that we've heard from lots of people saying that there are no good options in front of Donald Trump at this point in time.

這也點出了很多人說，唐納·川普現在沒有什麼好選擇的狀況。

It seems like it's getting more and more difficult by the day for him to find an off-ramp.

感覺他每天要找到一個退場點都越來越難了。

I think one of the things, just building on what Harlan said, it's winning by not losing and denying the United States the ability to deal with all the contingencies that it has to deal with across the region.

我覺得，延續 Harlan 剛才說的，其中一個重點就是「不輸就贏」，讓美國無法應對區域內所有可能發生的狀況。

And if they come into the Strait and they use military boots on the ground, it'll become even more difficult.

如果他們進入海峽，並且部署地面部隊，情況會變得更複雜。

The other thing I think's important to say, Tom, to the viewers is that what Iran has is a clear sense of a political endgame.

另外，Tom，我認為對觀眾說很重要的一點是，伊朗有一個明確的政治終局目標。

Karl von Clausewitz, the ancient or the strategist from the 17th and 18th century, basically said that war is a continuation of politics by other means.

17、18世紀的戰略家，也就是卡爾·馮·克勞塞維茨說過，戰爭是政治的延續。

So what the and what they have, they have a clear sense of the political objective, which is to put pressure on Donald Trump.

所以他們有明確的政治目標，就是要給唐納·川普壓力。

The United States also had a political goal, which was regime change.

美國也有一個政治目標，那就是政權更迭。

So now it seems like their military might is detached from any clear political outcome.

所以現在看來，他們的軍事力量似乎與任何明確的政治結果脫節了。

And that's a problem for the United States.

It's also racking up quite large financial losses as well.

同時也造成相當大的財務損失。

The United States is facing mounting costs associated with its extensive air and naval assault on Iran.

美國正承受著對伊朗進行大規模空海襲擊所產生的龐大費用。

A recent closed-door Pentagon briefing reportedly revealed that the first six days of the war cost $11.3 billion.

最近一份閉門的五角大廈簡報據報指出，戰爭的前六天就耗資 113 億美元。

Now, in terms of interceptors, it's cost the US, Israel, and

現在，就攔截器而言，美國、以色列和

Gulf countries about $26 billion to shoot down the hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles fired throughout the region over 16 days of the conflict.

波斯灣國家在衝突的 16 天內，為了擊落數百架伊朗發射的無人機和飛彈，約花費了 260 億美元。

Now, the United States has fired more long-range Tomahawk missiles than in any other military campaign in recent history, at least 850 to date, at a cost of $3.6 million.

現在，美國發射的長程戰斧飛彈數量，比近期任何其他軍事行動都多，至今至少有 850 枚，每枚成本 360 萬美元。

That's an excess of $3 billion spent just on those munitions.

這光是彈藥就超出了 30 億美元。

And then there's the human toll of the war, with at least 13 US service members killed and more than 300 wounded in Iranian strikes to date.

另外還有戰爭的人員傷亡，到目前為止，在伊朗的攻擊中，至少有 13 名美國軍人喪生，超過 300 人受傷。

Harlan, if I can come back to you, I mean, those are staggering numbers a month into this war.

哈蘭，如果我能回到你那裡，我是說，這場戰爭一個月以來，這些數字真是驚人。

We know there's a $200 billion that Congress has been asked to try and find to help Donald Trump continue this war.

我們知道國會被要求設法找到 2000 億美元，來幫助唐納·川普繼續這場戰爭。

You're talking about Iran not losing, the US just going to continue battering them into submission if they can.

你說的是伊朗沒有輸，美國如果能做到，就會繼續擊潰他們直到屈服。

How long can they continue trying to do that, at least?

至少，他們還能繼續這樣做多久？

We're running out of bullets, in essence.

說到底，我們的子彈快用完了。

And if the Houthis decide to blockade the Red Sea or Abu Hamdab, we're going to be running out of ships.

如果胡塞武裝決定封鎖紅海或阿布哈姆丹，我們的船也會不夠用。

The fire on the USS Ford may not have been an accident, would suggest that there are some questions with morale.

美國福特號航空母艦上的火災可能不是意外，這暗示著士氣可能有些問題。

So the tolls that you look at, we've had a relatively small number of Americans killed and wounded so far, thank goodness.

所以你看到的傷亡數字，謝天謝地，到目前為止，我們陣亡和受傷的美國人數量相對較少。

But the toll on equipment, the toll on our weapons magazines and our personnel cannot be calculated.

但裝備的損耗、彈藥庫的損耗以及我們人員的損失是無法計算的。

And the fact of the matter is, by bringing in the Marine Expeditionary Units and a brigade of the 82nd Airborne, those forces can establish toe holds,

事實上，透過調派海軍陸戰隊遠徵部隊和第82空降師的一個旅，這些部隊可以建立立足點，

In fact, I've been just watching the movie "A Bridge Too Far" about the failed Arnhem operation, in which we parachuted in three British and American Airborne divisions that failed.

事實上，我剛看了電影「遙遠的橋」，講述了失敗的阿納姆行動，我們在那次行動中空降了三個英國和美國的空降師，但都失敗了。

And so you ask the question about what options does Mr.

He can withdraw and try and claim victory, or he can escalate.

他可以撤軍並試圖宣稱勝利，或者他可以升級。

And frankly, escalation is just going to make matters worse, because I don't see any way of resolving this war by sheer use of military force.

坦白說，升級只會讓事情變得更糟，因為我看不出有任何方法可以僅憑軍事力量來解決這場戰爭。

And as we have discussed, this war is expanding rapidly.

而且就像我們討論過的，這場戰爭正在快速擴張。

And as I said, Russia will become more deeply engaged.

而且就像我說的，俄羅斯會更深入地介入。

And don't forget, one of the clever aspects of Mr.

而且別忘了，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基先生策略裡一個很聰明的部分是，他要去中東。

Zelensky, the President of Ukraine's approach, he's going to the Middle East.

他要去海灣國家，來獲取他所需要的全部資金，因為他無法從美國那裡得到。

He's going to the Gulf States to get all the money he needs because he cannot get it from the United States.

換句話說，他的B計畫是，「我認為美國不會長期支持我。

In other words, his plan B is, "I don't think the US is with me for the long term.

阿拉伯國家會幫我嗎？」這也是美國政治中另一個需要進一步考慮的因素。

Will the Arab states help me?" That's something else that's going to be a further consideration in America's politics.

同時，羅斯，巴基斯坦將主辦這次毫無疑問至關重要的峰會，就在明天，週日開始。

At the same time, Ross, Pakistan's hosting this what is going to be a crucial summit, no doubt, that begins Sunday, tomorrow.

Diplomats from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, all, I guess, coming together to try and find a way to de-escalate the situation as it stands.

來自土耳其、沙烏地阿拉伯、埃及的外交官們，我想大家齊聚一堂，試圖找出緩和當前局勢的方法。

Do you think they're going to have any success?

Because obviously the US and Iran, there's so little trust between anyone in the conflict at this point in time.

因為很明顯，美國和伊朗之間，在這個時間點，幾乎沒有任何互信了。

Where do you even begin with something like this?

You know, Tom, it's a great question, because what Iran has done is they've sort of set up a 3D chessboard, right?

湯姆，這真是個好問題，因為伊朗所做的，就像是佈下了一個三維的西洋棋盤，對吧？

They're attacking Israel directly, then they're attacking the Gulf Arab states to put pressure on Donald Trump,

他們直接攻擊以色列，然後攻擊海灣阿拉伯國家，對川普施壓，

and then they close the Strait of Mendeb.

So they're playing a very complex military or quasi-military game.

所以他們正在玩一場非常複雜的軍事或準軍事遊戲。

And then what has to happen is there has to be a three-dimensional diplomatic game as well.

然後，必須要有一個三維的外交遊戲同時進行。

And I think that's what you're seeing in Islamabad, which is the states that have a stake in the outcome here, right?

我認為這就是你們在伊斯蘭堡看到的，那些對結果有利害關係的國家，對吧？