Name: 哈利·安騰本週的數字分析！28分鐘帶你看透！ (28 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers)
Uploaded: 2026-03-28T16:42:46.000Z
Duration: 27 min 29 s

程度副詞

So one of the things that Harry loves, almost as much as politics, is Carvel.

所以 Harry 最喜歡的一件事，幾乎跟政治一樣，就是 Carvel。

And Harry doesn't share that love of Carvel.

而且 Harry 並不分享對 Carvel 的喜愛。

And so we decided that how about a little Fudgy the Way?

所以我們決定，不如來點 Fudgy the Way 吧？

Fudgy is starting to slip, and I warn you that Fudgy may be a little slippy.

Fudgy 開始滑了，我警告你 Fudgy 可能會有點滑。

Sarah Seidner coming through with a cake.

If there was a poll and it was this high, you'd be hitting it.

如果真的有民調顯示這麼高，你肯定會大聲說出來。

How is the president standing right now, March 24, 2025, with men?

總統在 2025 年 3 月 24 日，在男性選民中的支持度如何？

Time flies when you're having fun here with Harry Enten.

跟 Harry Enten 一起在這裡，時間過得真快。

Although the older I get, I don't even know.

雖然我年紀越大，我也不知道。

Look, the bottom line is this, Erica Hill: Donald Trump and Republicans won in 2024 because of support from male voters.

看，重點是這個，Erica Hill：Donald Trump 和 Republicans 在 2024 年贏是因為有男性選民的支持。

The only way they can win, given the gender gap in this country, is support from male voters.

考慮到這個國家的性別差距，他們贏的唯一方法就是獲得男性選民的支持。

And male voters are abandoning Donald Trump.

而且男性選民正在拋棄 Donald Trump。

In November of 2024, he beat Kamala Harris, among them, by 13 points.

在 2024 年 11 月，他在這些人中以 13 個百分點擊敗了 Kamala Harris。

Look at where he is now on his net approval rating.

It's a 20-point shift away from Donald Trump.

這意味著對 Donald Trump 的支持度轉向了 20 個百分點。

He is now seven points underwater at this particular point among men.

他現在在男性選民中的支持度是負 7 個百分點。

I think it is very difficult for Republicans to do well in this midterm cycle if Donald Trump is underwater with men, as my uncle once wrote, "Where the boys are, where the men are, they are underwater when it comes to Donald Trump." OK, so that's overall men.

我認為，如果 Donald Trump 在男性選民中的支持度不佳，共和黨在這個期中選舉週期要表現得好會非常困難，就像我叔叔以前寫的，「男孩們在哪裡，男人們在哪裡，他們在 Donald Trump 這邊是處於劣勢的。」好的，這是整體男性。

But what about young men who were really influential?

但那些真正有影響力的年輕男性呢？

There was a massive shift to Donald Trump from 2020 to 2024 among young men.

從 2020 年到 2024 年，年輕男性對 Donald Trump 的支持度出現了巨大的轉變。

25歲以下的男性對川普的看法。

他在2024年贏得了他們五個百分點的差距。

Nearly a 25-point switcheroo against the president of the United States when it comes to men under the age of 45.

對於45歲以下的男性來說，這幾乎是美國總統的25個百分點的轉變。

Those men that had switched their allegiances over to the Republican Party are seeing what the president is doing.

那些轉向共和黨的男性，正在看總統在做什麼。

They don't like what the president is doing.

And they have very much soured on the president of the United States, men under the age of 45.

而且45歲以下的男性，對美國總統的看法大大轉差。

What is it specifically that they don't like?

What issues have caused them to sour on President Trump?

是什麼議題讓他們對川普總統的看法轉差？

I think there are a lot of issues that have caused them to sour on President Trump.

我認為有很多議題讓他們對川普總統的看法轉差。

But one in particular, we've spoken about it over and over and over again, it's the cost of living.

但其中一個特別的，我們已經說過很多次了，就是生活成本。

Look at this, OK, men on Trump and the cost of living.

看看這個，好的，男性對川普和生活成本的看法。

Trump was trusted more than Kamala Harris by 10 points on this issue.

在這項議題上，川普比賀錦麗獲得多10個百分點的信任。

Now we've got a 40-point switcheroo in the other direction.

現在我們看到一個40個百分點的巨大轉變，方向相反。

His net approval rating on the cost of living among men is underwater by 30 percentage points.

在男性對生活成本的淨認可度上，他落後了30個百分點。

There is no way in God's green earth that the Republican Party can hold on to the House of Representatives if this number holds, when you're 30 points underwater with the gender that, of course, puts you over the top in the election on the cost of living, the number one issue.

如果這個數字持續下去，共和黨根本不可能守住眾議院，因為在生活成本這個頭號議題上，你對那個能讓你贏得選舉的性別落後了30個百分點，這簡直是天方夜譚。

That means see you later to that Republican House majority and maybe that Senate majority as well.

這意味著共和黨的眾議院多數席位，甚至可能還有參議院多數席位，都要說再見了。

When there was this slew of initial polls that came out, the Fox News poll was the one initial poll that did not show that the war was unpopular.

當初有一批初步民調出來的時候，Fox News 的民調是唯一一份沒有顯示戰爭不受歡迎的民調。

Trump has lost his one good poll when it comes to the Iran war.

川普失去了一個關於伊朗戰爭的好民調。

Net approval rating of U.S. military action in Iran.

三月初的時候，差不多是持平，對吧？

What that essentially means is 50% approved, 50% disapproved.

這基本上意味著 50% 的人贊成，50% 的人反對。

The net approval rating for the U.S. military action in Iran, negative 16 points.

伊朗軍事行動的淨認可度，負 16 點。

Just 42% of the American public approve of it, 58% disapprove.

只有 42% 的美國民眾贊成，58% 的人反對。

So now we're looking at basically every single poll in which the clear plurality or majority of Americans disapprove of the U.S.

所以現在我們看到，幾乎所有民調都顯示，美國民眾的明顯多數或絕對多數反對美國。

military action in Iran, Trump can no longer point to a poll that actually shows that among the general public at large, that the American public actually approve of this military action.

伊朗軍事行動，川普再也無法拿出任何一份民調顯示，在一般大眾中，美國民眾真的贊成這項軍事行動。

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哈利·安騰本週的數字分析！28分鐘帶你看透！ (28 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers)

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average