Name: 川普政府「嚴重低估」伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的可能性！ (Trump admin ‘significantly underestimated’ Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure)
Uploaded: 2026-03-13T23:05:03.000Z
Duration: 8 min 9 s

程度副詞

So not prepared for something that administrations have been talking about for decades.

所以對於幾十年來政府一直都在談論的事情，卻沒有做好準備。

Yeah, look, this is reporting from cnn, Zach Cohen, Phil Mattingly, Kevin Liptak and Kylie Atwood.

沒錯，這是 CNN 的報導，由 Zach Cohen、Phil Mattingly、Kevin Liptak 和 Kylie Atwood 提供的。

And it gets into just how problematic what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, which of course, is one of the world's most important energy chokeholds in the country.

內容深入探討了荷姆茲海峽發生的事情有多麼棘手，而荷姆茲海峽當然是世界上最重要的能源咽喉之一。

It's responsible for 20% of the global crude oil that comes out of that very key waterway.

全球有 20% 的原油是通過這個關鍵水道運輸的。

And what they're learning, our colleagues, is that essentially that while key officials from the Department of Energy and the Department of Treasury were present for a lot of these briefings, what is typical in planning for something of this magnitude, an operation, military operation of this magnitude in the Middle East.

我們的同事們瞭解到，雖然來自能源部和財政部的關鍵官員出席了許多簡報，但對於中東地區如此規模的軍事行動，這在過去的政府裡是決策過程中的關鍵要素，但這次卻成了次要考量。

They said that the agency analysis and forecast that would be integral elements of the decision making process in past administrations, which were secondary considerations here.

他們說，單位分析和預測是過去政府決策過程中的關鍵要素，而這次卻成了次要考量。

Now, I think one of the key things is what the administration is actually going to do about this, John, and

現在，我認為關鍵在於政府實際上會怎麼做，John，

what we've heard from top officials and what our colleagues are hearing from their sources involved in some of the planning on this is that it could be weeks before the Trump administration's efforts to really try and alleviate the impact of what is happening in the Strait can actually take effect.

我們從高層官員那裡聽到的，以及我們的同事從參與部分規劃的線人那裡聽到的消息是，川普政府要真正設法減輕荷姆茲海峽發生的事情的影響，可能需要幾週的時間才能見效。

We have heard many officials kind of talk about the possibility of having the US Navy go, go in and escort some of these oil tankers and ships through the Strait to make sure they're safer.

我們聽過許多官員談論讓美國海軍進入並護送一些油輪和船隻通過海峽的可能性，以確保它們更安全。

And that is something that we've now heard as well from top officials like the energy secretary, Chris Wright, noting that it can be very dangerous to do that.

這也是我們現在從能源部長 Chris Wright 等高層官員那裡聽到的，他提到這麼做可能非常危險。

Meanwhile, we've heard from the president kind of trying to downplay some of the tumult we've seen with energy and what has been happening in the Strait.

同時，我們也聽到了總統試圖淡化我們看到的能源動盪以及海峽發生的事情。

Now, I do want to reference what we heard from the treasury secretary, Scott Bessen, yesterday.

現在，我想引用我們昨天從財政部長 Scott Bessen 那裡聽到的話。

He was speaking with Sky News and he said that the escorts from the US Navy will begin to quote as soon as militarily possible.

他在接受 Sky News 採訪時表示，美國海軍的護航將「盡快在軍事上可行時」開始。

And there's a chance that the US Navy or perhaps an international coalition could ultimately escort these tinkers through.

而且，美國海軍或國際聯盟最終有可能護送這些油輪通過。

We also heard, just speaking on this idea of preparedness and the lack thereof that our colleagues are reporting on.

我們也聽到了，關於我們同事正在報導的準備不足的問題。

We did hear from the White House, a spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, this is what she told cnn.

我們確實聽到了白宮發言人 Anna Kelly 的說法，這是她告訴 CNN 的。

She said through a detailed planning process, the entire administration is and was prepared for for any potential action taken by the terrorist Iranian regime.

她說，透過詳細的規劃過程，整個政府都已準備好應對伊朗恐怖政權可能採取的任何行動。

She went on to say that the president has been clear that any disruptions to Energy are temporary and will result in a benefit to our country.

她接著說，總統已經明確表示，任何對能源的幹擾都是暫時的，並將為我國帶來好處。

We've heard from this White House that what is happening right now with oil is temporary.

我們從白宮聽到的說法是，現在發生的石油事件是暫時的。

But all to say, we do know that energy executives as well are kind of trying to play it safe right now.

但總而言之，我們確實知道，能源公司的執行長們現在也試圖謹慎行事。

They do not want to be sending their oil tankers through, risking lives, risking their ships at this moment.

他們不想冒著生命危險、冒著船隻風險，運送他們的油輪通過。

So this is a problem that is likely going to continue for a long time until the administration, administration can figure out how to safely escort these ships and reopen the strait in a way that is safe for everyone.

所以這個問題很可能會持續很長一段時間，直到政府、行政部門想出如何安全護送這些船隻，並以對每個人都安全的方式重新開放海峽。

John Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told Kate yesterday they were not yet ready to escort these fuel tankers through the strait.

能源部長 John Chris Wright 昨天告訴 Kate，他們還沒有準備好護送這些油輪通過海峽。

General, the reporting is that somehow the administration, the National Security Council, the Pentagon maybe underestimated what Iran was willing to do in the strait.

將軍，報導指出，不知何故，政府、國家安全會議、五角大廈可能低估了伊朗在海峽的行動意願。

How could that be when I know that a straight closure has been near doctrine in the US for decades?

這怎麼可能呢？因為我知道關閉海峽幾十年來一直是美國的準則。

John I was very surprised by those, you know, that reporting as well, in my experience, and

John 我對這些報導也感到非常驚訝，根據我的經驗，

I spent, you know, a couple of decades working in the Central Command area of responsibility to include being part of, you know, the development and the review of the concepts of operations to address the threats that Iran poses to the region and specifically the straits.

我花了幾十年在中央司令部責任區工作，包括參與制定和審查應對伊朗對該地區和特別是海峽構成威脅的行動概念。

So I believe that CENTCOM certainly had this as a potential response option based on, you know, offensive operations into Iran.

所以，我相信 CENTCOM 肯定將此視為潛在的應對選項，基於，你知道的，對伊朗發動攻勢。

So now the fact that potentially all the capability to start clearing the strait to allow freedom of navigation and we may have to have additional capabilities build up to include, similar to what we had with Prosperity Guardian to rely on our coalition partners in the Gulf states and our allies from NATO to assist.

所以現在，我們有潛力擁有清除海峽以確保航行自由的所有能力，而且我們可能需要建立額外的能力，就像我們之前與「守護繁榮行動」一樣，依賴海灣國家和北約盟友的協助。

Let's listen to what the secretary just said about the Strait of Hormuz.

讓我們聽聽部長剛才對荷姆茲海峽說了什麼。

They are exercising sheer desperation in the Straits of Hormuz, something we're dealing with.

他們在荷姆茲海峽展現了純粹的絕望，這是我們正在處理的事情。

We have been dealing with it and don't need to worry about it, were on plan to defeat, destroy, disable all of their meaningful military capabilities at a pace the world has never seen before.

我們一直在處理，不用擔心，我們正按計畫以前所未有的速度擊敗、摧毀、癱瘓他們所有有意義的軍事能力。

The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.

目前唯一阻礙海峽通行的就是伊朗向船隻開槍。

Should Iran not do that now, there's a reason why we chose as one of our primary objectives, destroy the navy.

如果伊朗現在不這麼做，我們選擇摧毀海軍作為主要目標之一是有原因的。

We understood the ability to interdict shipping is something Iran has done for 40 years.

我們明白，伊朗攔截船隻的能力是他們做了 40 年的事情。

The world is seeing what they'll do to fight back in that context.

世界正看見他們將如何在此情境下反擊。

And so we've heard them talk about taking various measures, and we're Planning for all of them.

是以我們聽過他們談論採取各種措施，我們也正為所有這些措施做計畫。

所以我們在這裡為每個選項都有計畫。

We're working with our interagency partners, and

我們正與我們的跨部會夥伴合作，

that's not a straight we're going to allow to remain contested or with a lack of flow of commercial goods.

我們不會允許這個海峽持續處於爭議中或商業貨物流通不暢。

We're laser focused on our military objectives, but

我們正專注於我們的軍事目標，但

also want to make sure our partners across this government understand we're working with you to make sure that energy flows.

也想確保我們政府各地的夥伴瞭解，我們正與你們合作，確保能源順暢流通。

It's really become the center of this war right now.

它現在真的成了這場戰爭的中心。

And maybe more than anything else, this seems to be bringing the battle home for the American people.

而且，這件事似乎比其他任何事情都更能讓美國民眾感受到這場戰鬥就在身邊。

And a lot of people may be puzzled by it.

They say, look, that's a conflict way over there.

他們會說，看，那是一個很遙遠的衝突。

The United States does produce a lot of oil and gas.

美國確實生產大量的石油和天然氣。

So why is the cost going up at my corner gas station, first of all, because that is also a big oil and G region.

所以，為什麼我街角的加油站價格會上漲？首先，因為那裡也是一個主要的石油和天然氣區域。

A lot of petroleum products there from the UAE to Saudi Arabia, huge producer.

阿聯酋到沙烏地阿拉伯，那裡有大量的石油產品，都是大宗生產國。

科威特、伊拉克，還有伊朗本身。

And almost all of it has to come through this thin ribbon of water down here and pass through the very tight Strait of Hormuz.

幾乎所有的石油都必須通過這條狹窄的水道，經過非常緊繃的荷姆茲海峽。

About 3,000 ships a month, about 20 million barrels of oil a day.

每個月大約有三千艘船，每天約兩千萬桶原油。

And Iran, as you noted above, Jake, is really putting a lot of military pressure on those ships and in effect slamming the gates shut there at the strait and letting almost nothing through.

而伊朗，就像你剛才提到的，正在對這些船隻施加巨大的軍事壓力，實際上是關閉了海峽的通道，幾乎不讓任何東西通過。

We've heard about the effort to mine the strait sea mines by the Iranians.

我們聽說伊朗試圖在那裡佈設水雷。

What do we know about Iran's ability, their capability to do that?

我們對伊朗有這種能力的瞭解有多少？

We know that they have a lot of mines and they're not the old mines that you see in World War II movies, for example.

我們知道他們有很多水雷，而且不是像二戰電影裡那種老舊的水雷。

They have this type of mine which is called an influence mine.

他們有這種叫做「感應水雷」的水雷。

It sits underwater and it basically takes readings on what's passing above.

它會藏在水下，然後偵測上方經過的船隻。

So that if a small boat or ship goes goes by, it may ignore it.

所以如果小船或小艇經過，它可能會忽略。

But if a big tanker goes by and that's what it's been tuned to, that's when it may detonate.

但如果是一艘大型油輪經過，而且這正是它設定的目標，它就可能會引爆。

But that uncertainty alone is also contributing to the notion that none of these ships that ought to be going out are doing so.

但光是這種不確定性，也加劇了「應該要出航的船隻都不出航」的這種想法。

Tom, most of the oil from the strait goes to Asia, notably to China.

湯姆，從海峽運出的原油大部分都運往亞洲，特別是中國。

Almost none of it comes to the United States.

But the problem is oil is traded on a world market.

但問題是，原油是在全球市場上交易的。

Once it gets out there, it's basically being all mixed together and traded.

一旦進入市場，基本上就會混合在一起交易。

So if I were to put barrels in the back of our warehouse here and make them represent all the oil being traded in the world, 20% of it is now not passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

所以，如果我把我們倉庫裡的這些油桶代表全球交易的原油，其中有 20% 的原油現在無法通過荷姆茲海峽。

You simply cannot remove that much from the market when.

當市場上少了這麼多的原油時，你根本無法避免影響。

Without affecting shipping and trade and manufacturing and, yeah, absolutely, what all of you are likely to pay this weekend when you go to gas up your car.

而不影響運輸、貿易、製造業，以及絕對會影響到你這個週末去加油時，你可能要付的錢。