Name: 伊朗攻擊海灣國家是為了對美國施壓達成停火的「混亂策略」？專家這麼說！ (Iran attacks on Gulf states part of ‘strategy of chaos’ to pressure US into ceasefire: Analyst)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T21:34:34.000Z
Duration: 6 min 2 s

Let's discuss the latest developments now with Bob Gates Pinfold, who's a lecturer in International Security at King's College London.

接下來我們就來請教國際安全學講師 Bob Gates Pinfold，他是 King's College London 的。

Thank you, Rob, for being with us once again.

Rob，再次謝謝你來我們的節目。

Let's start with the message from the new Supreme Leader of Iran, the first one since he was appointed.

我們先從伊朗新任最高領導人發出的第一則訊息開始談起，這是他上任後的第一則。

It was a defiant one, a defiant tone, especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which he says will remain closed.

訊息充滿挑釁意味，語氣也很強硬，尤其是在談到荷姆茲海峽時，他說海峽將會持續關閉。

What do you make of that and what does it indicate about the direction in which Iran wants to take this conflict?

你怎麼看這件事？這又透露出伊朗想把這場衝突帶往什麼方向呢？

他的語氣確實非常、非常強硬。

Words that stood out for me were ones like revenge, destroy, for example.

讓我印象深刻的詞句，像是 revenge（復仇）、destroy（摧毀）等等。

It was very much a reiteration of Iran's existing messages.

這基本上就是重申伊朗現有的訊息。

There was, to be frank, very, very little new under the sun here.

坦白說，這裡面沒有什麼新東西。

Iran has already announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed.

伊朗已經宣佈荷姆茲海峽將會關閉。

The new Supreme Leader said that it will continue to be closed.

新的最高領導人說，荷姆茲海峽將會持續關閉。

He continued to parrot the line that Iran seeks friendly relations with GCC states and it's not targeting civilian assets there, only US military bases.

他繼續重複伊朗尋求與 GCC states 建立友好關係，並且不針對平民資產，只針對美軍基地這樣的說法。

And of course we know, as you discussed with your previous guest, that the GCC state specifically asked the US not to use those bases to attack Iran.

當然，我們也知道，就像你和之前的來賓討論過的，GCC states 特別要求美國不要使用那些基地來攻擊伊朗。

The Iranians are saying, including the guests I had previously, that attacks are being launched from, from, you know, bases in this region, from U.S.

伊朗人說，包括我之前邀請的來賓，都說攻擊是從這個區域的基地發動的，從美國的。

We do know the GCC countries demanded before the war that the US not use their bases to, to attack Iran.

我們確實知道，在戰爭之前，GCC states 要求美國不要使用他們的基地來攻擊伊朗。

There was an evacuation of US personnel, for example, from the Al Udeid base in Qatar.

像是從卡達的 Al Udeid base 撤離了美國人員。

That wasn't just because they were expecting retaliation.

這不只是因為他們預期會遭到報復。

It's out of expectation that they couldn't use that base to attack Iran.

而是因為他們預期無法使用那個基地來攻擊伊朗。

So the GCC states really stuck their necks out here in trying to not give Iran any legitimacy or any excuse to attack them.

所以 GCC states 這次真的豁出去了，試圖不給伊朗任何正當性或藉口來攻擊他們。

And nevertheless, Iran did still attack them.

It not only attacked countries with whom it's long had difficult relations, for example, Saudi Arabia, it attacked every single GCC state, including those that really tried to mediate until the very last minute, including Oman, including Qatar, for example.

它攻擊的不僅是與其長期關係緊張的國家，例如沙烏地阿拉伯，而是攻擊了每一個 GCC states，包括那些直到最後一刻都試圖調解的國家，例如阿曼，還有卡達。

So this is all part of Iran's broader strategy of chaos.

所以這一切都是伊朗更廣泛的混亂策略的一部分。

It's basically trying to push for a ceasefire by causing so much chaos, so much instability, that the US has perceives this conflict as no longer in its interests and it's willing to burn its bridges with any and all Gulf states in order to pursue that very high risk strategy.

它基本上試圖透過製造如此多的混亂、如此多的不穩定，來推動停火，讓美國認為這場衝突不再符合其利益，並且願意為了追求這個高風險策略而與所有海灣國家斷絕關係。

And looking at the battlefield today, Rob, is there, is either side, you think, closer to achieving a decisive outcome, or are we entering a phase of this conflict that's going to be basically a deadlock?

而且，Rob，看看今天的戰場，你認為哪一方更接近達成決定性結果，還是我們要進入一個基本上僵持的衝突階段？

I mean, we don't know exactly what the ultimate goal is for the US but what does it say about where we are at this time of the conflict?

我的意思是，我們不確確切切知道美國的最終目標是什麼，但這對我們目前所處的衝突階段說明瞭什麼？

Well, we of course, do not know what is going on behind the scenes.

嗯，我們當然不知道幕後發生了什麼。

Shortly before the new Supreme Leader's recorded speech, we heard Anwar Gargashi, influential UAE presidential adviser, saying that a breakthrough was in reach.

在新任最高領導人錄製演講前不久，我們聽到有影響力的阿聯酋總統顧問Anwar Gargashi說，突破即將到來。

Well, there's quite a disconnect between that optimistic projection and the speech by the new supreme leader which is around.

嗯，這種樂觀的預期與新任最高領導人的演講之間存在很大的差距。

Could it be that breakthrough between Gulf countries and Iran?

這會是海灣國家與伊朗之間的突破嗎？

Because again, we've heard the Iranian supreme leader say that, you know, these are brothers, these are regional countries, we want good relations with them.

因為，我們又聽伊朗最高領導人說，你知道，這些是兄弟，這些是區域國家，我們希望和他們維持良好關係。

we've heard that time and time again, we've heard Iranian, the Iranian president say that they apologize for attacking the Gulf states whilst Iran continued to attack the Gulf states.

我們聽過很多次了，我們聽過伊朗人，伊朗總統說他們為攻擊海灣國家道歉，但伊朗卻持續攻擊海灣國家。

We've heard the Iranian foreign minister claim that it was wrong to do so and to apologize.

我們聽過伊朗外交部長聲稱這麼做是錯的，並為此道歉。

We've heard Iranian claims that Mossad cells have been arrested in these Gulf states, when in fact Iraq IRGC cells have been arrested within these Gulf states.

我們聽過伊朗聲稱，在這些海灣國家逮捕了摩薩德（Mossad）細胞，但事實上，在這些海灣國家逮捕的是伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）的細胞。

We heard today Iran deny that it had attacked Oman, despite the fact that shahed drones landed in Oman or were sent towards Oman.

我們今天聽到伊朗否認攻擊阿曼，儘管沙希德（Shahed）無人機降落在阿曼或被派往阿曼。

So, frankly, none of this is plausible anymore.

所以，坦白說，這些說法都不可信了。

One is that the Iranian regime has lost control over its own forces, or that it's complicit in this strategy of chaos and is simply lying through its teeth.

一種是伊朗政權已經失控，或者他們是這場混亂策略的共犯，只是在睜眼說瞎話。

Neither of those potential explanations are promising for Iran's continued relations with the Gulf states.

這兩種可能的解釋，對伊朗與海灣國家持續的關係來說，都不是好消息。

It's fair to say, yeah, and Iran said it wants good relations with the Gulf states.

坦白說，伊朗也說他們希望跟海灣國家有良好關係。

Do you, do you see those relations getting back to where they were when this conflict ends?

你認為，衝突結束後，這些關係有機會回到從前的樣子嗎？

Well, the Gulf states know they have no choice but to have some kind of dialogue with Iran.

嗯，海灣國家知道他們別無選擇，只能跟伊朗進行某種程度的對話。

This is normally any kind of situation like this.

For example, you know, looking at the Israeli front, you saw that Israel pass messages between themselves and Hezbollah, between themselves and Hamas before the recent confrontation.

舉例來說，你知道，看看以色列那邊，在最近的對峙之前，你看到以色列在他們自己和真主黨、以及他們自己和哈瑪斯之間傳遞訊息。

So we'll probably have a similar scenario where there are still channels open between the Gulf states and Iran, though I think it's fair to say, and

所以我們很可能會看到類似的狀況，海灣國家和伊朗之間仍然有溝通管道，雖然我認為坦白說，

you guys in Doha will probably know better than I, that there is now very much no love lost between the Gulf states and Iran, not just Gulf leaders, but

你們在杜哈的人可能比我更清楚，現在海灣國家和伊朗之間真的沒有什麼好感了，不只是海灣國家的領導人，

There is a real feeling that this is not their war.

大家真的覺得這不是他們的戰爭。

They are not legitimate targets, and particularly their civilians are not legitimate targets.

他們不是合法的攻擊目標，尤其是他們的平民也不是合法的攻擊目標。

But Iran continues to pound and target GCC cities from Riyadh to Doha and everything in between.

但伊朗持續從利雅德到杜哈，以及中間所有城市，猛烈攻擊海灣國家的城市。

Rob Gay Spinfoil joining us there from London.

來自倫敦的 Rob Gay Spinfoil 加入我們的行列。