Name: 雅德尼：伊朗戰爭恐引發股市崩盤！風險大增！ (Yardeni Sees Increased Risk of a Sharp Selloff Due to Iran War)
Uploaded: 2026-03-11T21:36:22.000Z
Duration: 9 min 26 s

Joining us now is Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who raised the probability earlier this week of a market meltdown to 35% for the rest of the year.

Yardeni Research 的 Ed Yardeni 加入我們，他本週稍早將今年剩餘時間市場崩盤的機率提高到 35%。

Does that 35% change at all with what we heard from the President yesterday?

總統昨天說的話，有沒有讓這個 35% 有任何改變？

Because while the President seems as though he's ready to declare a mission accomplished or that victory is at hand, I mean, I don't know that the Iranians are acting that way.

因為雖然總統看起來像是準備宣告任務達成，或是勝利在望，但我想，我不知道伊朗人是不是這樣做的。

I mean, Iran has been at war with us for 47 years and it doesn't look like they're ready to give us unconditional surrender, which was another demand of the president.

我的意思是，伊朗跟我們打仗已經 47 年了，而且看起來他們並沒有準備要無條件投降，這也是總統的另一個要求。

And yet it's, we're not even close to that.

然而，我們離那樣的目標還差得遠呢。

So why is the market so willing to take one sentence, you know, one news cycle and sell oil off rather than saying, look, war makes its own momentum and there are two or three or 12 sides here and we're going to continue to bid up this price?

那麼，為什麼市場這麼願意接受一句話，你知道的，一個新聞週期，然後就賣油，而不是說，看吧，戰爭有它自己的動能，而且這裡有兩、三、甚至十二方，我們會繼續抬價？

I mean, every, everybody's a military expert.

我的意思是，每個人都是軍事專家。

And I'll be, I'll turn more optimistic when I see a few tankers go through the Strait of Hormuz without getting shot at.

而且我會，當我看到幾艘油輪順利通過荷姆茲海峽，沒有被射擊時，我會更樂觀。

And until that happens, I think there's still a significant risk.

而且在那之前，我認為還是有重大風險。

You still have, though, your long term bull call in place, right?

你仍然有你的長期看漲呼籲，對吧？

I don't think this is going to last for four months.

I kind of agree that it could last for weeks.

我有點同意這可能會持續數週。

I think even the Iranians are strangling themselves because they can't get their oil out and they can't get whatever they import in.

我認為就連伊朗人也在扼殺自己，因為他們無法將石油運出去，也無法將他們進口的任何東西運進來。

So at some point there's going to have to be a cease fire, but

it's not going to be an unconditional surrender by the Iranians, as far as I can tell at this point.

就我目前看來，伊朗人不會無條件投降。

I mean, again, I'm no military expert, but

I know that military historians have said that it's very hard to win a war just by dropping bombs from the air.

我知道軍事史學家說過，光靠從空中投擲炸彈很難贏得戰爭。

And we're certainly not ready to put boots on the ground.

而且我們肯定還沒準備好派地面部隊。

You know, the problem with this enemy is it's a terrorist state that has been beheaded, but

你知道，這個敵人的問題在於它是一個被斬首的恐怖主義國家，但

they've got these terrorist subsidiaries that operate within Iran to keep their people at bay and also around the region.

他們有這些在伊朗境內運作的恐怖主義子公司，來控制他們的人民，也在該地區活動。

So again, I'd like to see that the drones stop.

If the drones, the suicide drones coming out of Iran don't stop, then obviously they can pick and choose their targets in the Strait and trying to escort them is going to be a dangerous mission.

如果來自伊朗的自殺式無人機不停下來，那麼顯然他們可以挑選海峽裡的目標，而護送它們將是一項危險的任務。

You also wrote over the weekend, I know you still have your bullish long term outlook, but

你週末也寫道，我知道你仍然有你的長期看漲呼籲，但

you can't roll out a bear market and even a recession.

你無法推出一個低迷的市場，甚至是一個衰退。

What does that scenario look like where we get the bear market in a recession?

在我們出現低迷的市場和衰退的這種情況下，會是什麼樣子？

Well, I think we've all been kind of amazed by the resilience of the stock market here.

嗯，我認為我們都對股市的韌性感到驚訝。

It looked pretty bad Sunday night when the price of oil was going up to about $120 a barrel.

週日晚上，油價漲到每桶約 120 美元時，情況看起來相當糟糕。

And when you looked at futures markets, things were trading down.

而當你看看期貨市場時，東西都在下跌。

But it turned out the P500 actually closed up.

但結果是，標準普爾 500 指數實際上收盤上漲。

So I think there's still a lot of buying on the dips, there's still a lot of wishful thinking and I am hopeful that this thing will be done sooner rather than later.

所以我認為逢低買進的狀況仍然很多，仍然有很多一廂情願的想法，我希望這件事能盡快結束。

But I need to see some evidence that that's the case.

但我需要看到一些證據來證明這一點。

And that just doesn't seem to be the case.

So I think we're still looking at it something like a 10 to 15% correction, bear market to be 20% or more.

所以我認為我們仍然預期會有 10% 到 15% 的修正，低迷的市場則會是 20% 或更多。

And I think we can't rule that simply because we have a history where we've seen that oil shocks tend to cause recessions, tend to cause bear markets.

而且我認為我們不能排除，因為我們過去的經驗顯示油價衝擊通常會導致經濟衰退、導致低迷的市場。

Now we did have 2022 where we had the bear market, but no recession.

現在我們在 2022 年確實經歷了低迷的市場，但沒有經濟衰退。

I don't think this is going to be the 1970s all over again, but

我不認為這會重演 1970 年代的劇本，但

it's sure starting to look somewhat like it.

What do you expect the Fed to do and where do you see rates going?

你預期聯準會會怎麼做？利率又會走向何方？

Because even if we have a growth slowdown, we're looking at inflation that's still far above the Fed's target and could rise even further.

因為即使我們經濟成長趨緩，我們看到的通膨仍然遠高於聯準會的目標，而且可能還會進一步上漲。

Well, you know, the Fed is between Iran and a hard place.

嗯，你知道，聯準會真是左右為難。

I mean, you know, they've got the hard places.

我的意思是，你知道，他們確實面臨了困境。

The labor market looks pretty weak and if inflation wasn't a problem, they probably lower rates.

勞動市場看起來相當疲弱，如果通膨不是問題，他們可能會降息。

But now you've got a mess with their dual mandate from the war because the war is push is pushing up energy prices, it is pushing up gasoline prices with a lag.

但現在他們面臨了兩難，因為戰爭推升了能源價格，也推升了汽油價格。

We need a lot of fertilizer for the planting season and apparently a lot of the material comes through the strait.

播種季節需要大量肥料，而顯然很多原料都通過那個海峽。

So there is this concern about inflation picking up instead of continuing to come down closer to 2%.

所以大家擔心通膨會回升，而不是繼續下降到接近2%。

And I think even if Kevin Wash is nominated, is, is approved and becomes the next Fed chair, I can't see that he's going to be able to convince anybody to lower interest rates.

我認為即使凱文·華許被提名並獲準成為下一任聯準會主席，我也看不出來他能說服任何人降息。

His nomination is going to be really interesting.

That Hearing of talking about that, knowing that a president might pull it, I want to get a ticket for that one.

關於那個聽證會，知道總統可能會撤回提名，我真想去買張票。

如果你懂我們，就讓我們成為你的最佳拍檔。

The other thing, by the way, you've been so excellent on surveillance, talking about AI derangement syndrome.

另外，說到 AI 錯亂症候群，你對監控的掌握真是太棒了。

But one of the weird things about last week was software.

但上週有個奇怪的地方是關於軟體。

IGV, the biggest ETF that tracks it, was up more than 7%.

IGV，追蹤它的最大 ETF，上漲超過 7%。

That flips when we get the president speaking yesterday.

總統昨天發言後，情況就翻轉了。

Does something about the fog of war and need for safety push us back towards tech?

戰爭迷霧和對安全的需要，會不會讓我們又回到科技股？

Or is that something different happening there?

還是那裡有什麼不同的情況正在發生？

Well, it's an interesting notion because back at the beginning of December, I actually recommended underweighting the Magnificent Seven.

不過，這聽起來很有意思，因為在十二月初的時候，我其實建議大家減碼「七雄」。

But I guess it's kind of back to the pandemic environment where the Magnificent Seven were just about the only companies that did well because they had their moats, they had their defined businesses.

不過我想，這又有點回到疫情期間的狀況了，那時候「七雄」幾乎是唯一表現好的公司，因為牠們有護城河、有明確的事業。

I've made the analogy with Game of Thrones.

我曾經拿《權力遊戲》來做比喻。

It's like having seven kingdoms with their moats that used to kind of leave each other alone, but

就像有七個王國，各自有護城河，以前大家比較不會互相干擾，但是

it's going to force them into a arms race.

And so I think tech, you got to do it selectively.

所以我覺得科技股，你得有選擇性地操作。

And I have no problems with buying things on dips here.

I. I have this quaint notion that corrections in bear markets are actually buying opportunities.

我有一個老派的想法，認為空頭市場中的修正其實是買進的機會。

So I have really no, no problem with picking things that are taking a dive.

所以，我一點都不介意挑選那些正在下跌的標的。

I know some people view that as trying to catch a knife, but

我知道有些人會覺得這是想去接飛刀，但是

when people start using that expression, that usually is the time to buy, to try to catch that knife.

當大家開始這樣說的時候，通常就是進場買進、試著接飛刀的時機。

I wonder about gold, because we saw it sell off on days when I thought people should be piling in, should be piling gold as a hedge.

我對黃金有點好奇，因為我們看到它在那些我認為大家應該要大量買進、買進黃金來避險的日子裡卻賣壓出籠。

And you've made some really prescient calls on gold.

而且你對黃金做了一些非常精準的預測。

You were early to this incredible rally that we watched.

你很早就預見了我們看到的這波驚人的漲勢。

I mean, well, is it, Is it, is it, is it now a speculative asset rather than store of wealth?

我是說，嗯，它現在是投機性資產，而不是財富的儲存工具了嗎？

Still, I think it's turning out to be a good competitor for bitcoin, for example.

不過，我認為它正開始成為比特幣等資產的良好競爭對手。

No, I think it's just consolidating around $5,000 an ounce.

不，我認為它只是在每盎司 5,000 美元左右盤整。

Younger me reporting on Bitcoin at $600 had heard someone say gold could be a good competitor to bitcoin.

年輕時，我報導比特幣價格為 600 美元，曾聽說有人說黃金可能是比特幣的有力競爭者。

Well, that's been the case for the past year or so.

嗯，過去一年左右就是這樣了。

But no, I'm still using 6000 by the end of the year and I'm still using 10,000 by the end of the decade.

不過，我還是認為年底會到 6000，而且我認為年底會到 10,000。

So, okay, 10,000 by the end of the decade.

Is this thing still the hedge for the market at the moment when you want to find somewhere that's nice and cozy to hide?

現在市場動盪不安，想找個安全的地方躲起來的時候，這東西還能避險嗎？