Name: 市場現況剖析：油價飆漲「讓荷包扁扁的消費者雪上加霜」！ (Sectors Up Close: High oil prices 'kicking the consumer while they're down')
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T17:28:13.000Z
Duration: 6 min 11 s

As oil drives over $100 a barrel, what does that mean for consumer stocks?

隨著石油價格衝破每桶 100 美元，這對消費者股票意味著什麼？

This is sectors up close and we're talking consumer stocks.

這裡是由板塊近距離觀察，我們正在談論消費者股票。

Oil surged above $100 a barrel this Monday and American drivers are already starting to see the impact of this latest Middle east conflict at the pump where the price of an average gallon of Gasoline was at $3.45 on Sunday.

這週一，石油價格飆升至每桶 100 美元以上，美國駕駛者在中東衝突的影響下，已經開始在加油站感受到汽油價格的變動，週日每加侖平均汽油價格為 3.45 美元。

Higher energy prices disproportionately do affect poorer Americans.

更高的能源價格不成比例地影響較貧窮的美國人。

So could this squeeze consumer staples that sector winner so far this year up over 10% before Monday's open.

那麼，這會不會擠壓到消費必需品，也就是今年到目前為止的板塊贏家，在週一開盤前已上漲超過 10%？

While Adam Phillips is managing director of investments at EP Wealth Advisors.

Adam Phillips 是 EP Wealth Advisors 的投資總經理。

Adam, where in the economy will $100 oil bite the hardest?

Adam，在經濟的哪個部分，每桶 100 美元的油價衝擊最大？

Well, for the last couple of years we've been talking about the K shaped consumer and this is really kicking that lower part of the K.

嗯，過去幾年我們一直在談論 K 型消費者，這真的在衝擊 K 型的下半部。

While they're already down, we know that they've been struggling with higher interest rates with a softening job market.

他們已經處於劣勢，我們知道他們一直在為利率上升和疲軟的就業市場而掙扎。

And so add on top of that the fact that we're seeing gas prices at 345 a gall on a national average that's up 15% week over week.

再加上我們看到全國平均汽油價格為每加侖 3.45 美元，這比上週上漲了 15%。

That's the highest since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

這是有史以來最高的，自 2005 年卡崔那颶風以來。

And so these are certainly they're trending in the wrong direction.

所以這些肯定是在朝錯誤的方向發展。

And gasoline is something that it's right in front of you.

而汽油是你看得到、摸得到的東西。

There's a gas station on every other corner here.

這條路上每隔幾個街角就有加油站。

So that's really where it's going to bite the hardest, is these consumers who are already feeling so strapped and so much pressure on their balance sheet.

所以這真的會衝擊最大，就是這些已經感到拮据、資產負債表壓力巨大的消費者。

This feels a very old school thing to happen in the market.

這在市場上感覺像是一件很老派的事。

Is US Consumer demand more resilient to oil shocks than it used to be?

美國消費者的需求對油價衝擊比以前更有韌性嗎？

You know, we are the old playbook was that there was a lot of vulnerability when we saw supply shocks, specifically in oil prices.

你知道，過去的劇本是，當我們看到供應衝擊，特別是油價時，會有很大的脆弱性。

We've been so for the past five years or so.

過去五年左右我們一直是這樣。

I think that that means that the economy is a little bit more resilient.

我認為這意味著經濟更有韌性。

But I would also caveat with the fact that we've seen over the last few years we actually drew down our strategic petroleum reserves and so they are now down about close to 40% from peak.

但我還是要補充一點，過去幾年我們其實動用了戰略石油儲備，現在比高峰時少了將近40%。

We drew them down over the last few years and so we come into this period in a little bit of a weaker spot.

我們過去幾年動用了它們，所以我們現在處於一個比較弱的狀況。

But I would also just go back to the fact that the consumer doesn't know and probably doesn't care that we are a net exporter of oil.

但我還是要回到消費者不知道，而且可能也不在乎我們是石油淨出口國這個事實。

If these are gas prices, are really smacking them in the face wherever they go.

如果這些汽油價格真的讓他們處處受影響。

I think that's what ultimately could weigh on psyche.

我認為這最終可能會影響到心理。

And as we know, when we talk about the consumer and their willingness and desire to go out and spend so much comes down to confidence.

而且我們知道，當我們談論消費者以及他們外出消費的意願和渴望時，很大程度上取決於信心。

What does a more cash strapped shopper then mean for consumer goods companies and retailers?

這樣一來，手頭比較緊的購物者對消費品公司和零售商意味著什麼？

Is this good for retailers at the lowest end as people trade down or will customers be hard hit across the board?

這對低價零售商來說是好事，因為人們會轉向更便宜的商品，還是所有顧客都會受到嚴重衝擊？

So we own a few more defensive types of retailers and discretionary companies, One of them being McDonald's, one of them being TJX.

所以我們持有更多防禦型的零售商和非必需消費品公司，其中一家是麥當勞，另一家是 TJX。

And so it's good to have exposure to some of these more resilient types of companies because we do expect many households to trade down.

是以，接觸一些更有彈性的公司是很不錯的，因為我們預期許多家庭會轉向更便宜的商品。

Now at the same time, what we're watching is going back to that idea about the K shaped economy that we've been talking about for so long.

同時，我們正在關注的，是回到我們長期以來一直在談論的 K 型經濟的概念。

One of the things that's been supporting that upper end of the K has been the fact that we've seen net worth rise just to these record levels year after year.

支撐 K 型經濟上端的其中一件事，就是我們看到淨資產一年比一年創下新高。

So much of that has been driven by a rising stock market.

其中很大一部分是由於股市上漲所帶動。

If on top of oil prices, we see this conflict in the Middle east drag on longer than many expected or hope that it would, that's something that could impact equity values and start to actually weigh on that the higher income consumer as well.

如果在中東衝突的影響下，油價持續比許多人預期或希望的更長，這可能會影響股票價值，並開始對較高收入的消費者造成壓力。

That certainly doesn't bode well for consumer spending which drives so much of broad economic growth.

這肯定不利於帶動廣泛經濟增長的消費者支出。

This is coming just as the trade uncertainty picture had been improving for retailers and consumer goods firms.

這是在零售商和消費品公司貿易不確定性狀況原本正在改善之際出現的。

Now they need to worry again again, don't they, about disruptions to the supply chain not just in energy, but

現在他們又得擔心了，對吧？不僅是能源，還有

食品和其他商品的供應鏈中斷問題？

This really comes at a tough time for consumers.

這對消費者來說確實是個艱難的時刻。

We thought we had the trade issues sorted out.

我們以為貿易問題已經解決了。

The Supreme Court weighed and voted down President Trump's use of IA when it comes to tariffs, that kind of put it back on the table a little bit.

最高法院對川普總統在關稅方面的 IA 使用進行了權衡並投票否決，這讓問題又重新浮現。

And now on top of that, we have another supply scare.

現在更糟的是，我們又面臨另一個供應恐慌。

It could go to more agricultural types of commodities and hit people at the, at the grocery market instead.

這可能會影響到更多農產品，並在雜貨市場衝擊人們。

And so this is something that really comes at a tough time for the economy.

對於經濟來說，這確實是個艱難的時刻。

One of the things that I've been watching is the fact that savings rates were already low.

我一直在關注的一件事是，儲蓄率本來就已經很低了。

How should you position then if we're suddenly going back into a much higher inflation environment?

如果我們突然又回到高通膨的環境，你該如何佈局呢？

Yeah, well, hopefully, hopefully this is a, this conflict is short lived.

是的，嗯，希望，希望這場衝突能很快結束。

I think it's already, it shows no signs of abating as we're talking here this morning.

我認為現在已經沒有緩和的跡象了，就在我們今天早上談話的時候。

But the way that we're positioned is we came into this year and therefore this conflict focused on diversification.

但我們的佈局方式是，我們在今年年初就開始，是以這場衝突著重於分散風險。

Magnificent seven that has been driven so much by AI and focused on in some cases the consumer.

輝達等七檔熱門股，很大程度上受 AI 驅動，有時也聚焦於消費者。

We came in with the expectation that the odds of a recession were low and we still believe that's the case.

我們年初的預期是經濟衰退的機率很低，我們仍然相信是這樣。

If this drags on, we will be watching for a number of trends.

如果這場衝突持續下去，我們會密切關注一些趨勢。

Last Friday's jobs report, certainly it got my attention.

上週五的就業報告，確實引起了我的注意。

我們損失了超過九萬個工作機會。

If you don't round that unemployment rate, you are 100th of a percent away from 4.5% on the unemployment rate.

如果你不去計算失業率的四捨五入，失業率就離百分之四點五差了百分之零點一。

And so things are moving in the wrong direction.

所以事情正朝錯誤的方向發展。

Is this just one print or is it the start of the trend?

這只是一份報告，還是趨勢的開始？

Right now we are very diversified across sectors.

目前我們在各個板塊都非常分散。

We are more neutral and we think this can go either way when it comes to the consumer.

我們比較中性，而且我們認為這在消費者方面可能會朝任何方向發展。

That was Adam Phillips of EP Wealth Advisors.

以上是 EP Wealth Advisors 的 Adam Phillips。

Don't forget you can watch More videos on Reuters.com.

別忘了你可以在 Reuters.com 上觀看更多影片。

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市場現況剖析：油價飆漲「讓荷包扁扁的消費者雪上加霜」！ (Sectors Up Close: High oil prices 'kicking the consumer while they're down')

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