Name: 如果伊朗政權無法被推翻？麗絲·杜塞分析 | BBC News (What if the Iranian regime can’t be overthrown? Lyse Doucet analysis | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-06T23:06:04.000Z
Duration: 8 min 8 s

President Trump keeps saying he wants to create an opportunity for Iranians to take control of their government.

President Trump 一直說他想創造機會讓伊朗人掌控自己的政府。

The United States and Israel are launching airstrikes across Iran.

美國和以色列正在伊朗各地發動空襲。

To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.

各位偉大、驕傲的伊朗人民，今晚我要告訴你們，你們自由的時刻已經來臨。

I'm the BBC's chief international correspondent.

And I've been visiting Iran for a very long time.

So since 1988, this is the moment for action.

所以自 1988 年以來，現在是採取行動的時刻了。

Everyone keeps asking, why did this war start and where will it end?

大家都在問，這場戰爭為什麼開始，又會在哪裡結束？

And it's difficult to answer that question because every day a leading member of President Trump's administration gives a slightly different version of what the end game is.

而且這個問題很難回答，因為每天 President Trump 領導層的成員都會給出對最終目標略有不同的說法。

What we do know is President Trump has always been clear, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

我們所知道的是，President Trump 一直都很清楚，伊朗不能擁有核武器。

Now, Iran always said that it has not been developing a nuclear weapon and has no ambition to do so.

現在，伊朗一直表示他們沒有在研發核武器，也沒有這樣的野心。

Last night, on President Trump's orders, US Central Command conducted a precision strike in the middle of the night against three nuclear facilities in Iran.

昨晚，在 President Trump 的命令下，美國中央司令部在深夜對伊朗的三個核設施進行了精準打擊。

So this time, again, they are also hitting some of the nuclear sites in the same way they did last year during the June war against Iran.

所以這次，他們又一次攻擊了部分核 sites，就像去年六月對伊朗的戰爭一樣。

Ballistic missiles are especially a target.

And from what we can see so far, they're going after the launches from which allow Iran to attack not just Israel, but

從我們目前看到的來看，他們正在攻擊那些讓伊朗不僅能攻擊以色列，還能

what we're seeing in this war, it's attacking countries across the Middle East.

在這場戰爭中，我們看到的是攻擊中東各國。

It says it's doing that in self defense, but those leaders are really angry at Iran.

伊朗聲稱是為了自我防衛，但那些國家的領導層對伊朗非常憤怒。

It also wants to ensure that Iran doesn't have the capacity to produce more ballistic missiles.

它也想確保伊朗沒有能力生產更多彈道飛彈。

Well, it's targeting the offices of the leadership, the security forces which protect the leadership, the bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the Basichi, their volunteer militia, and

嗯，目標是領導層的辦公室、保護領導層的安全部隊、伊斯蘭革命衛隊的基地，還有巴斯基民兵，他們的志願軍。

both the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in the Basichi, those are volunteer militia.

伊斯蘭革命衛隊和巴斯基民兵，那些都是志願軍。

They are the foot soldiers of this revolution.

They were set up in 1979 with a task to defend, to protect and to preserve the Islamic Republic.

他們成立於 1979 年，任務是保衛、保護和保存伊斯蘭共和國。

And they are still in action, although they are getting pounded every day.

他們至今仍在行動，儘管每天都遭受重創。

Will it be also that President Trump is not going to end this war until he brings down the regime?

難道 President Trump 不會結束這場戰爭，直到他推翻這個政權嗎？

Well, he set out concern, conflicting signals about that.

嗯，他對此發出了令人擔憂、矛盾的訊號。

Whether he would be willing to work with someone else in the clerical regime or whether he wants a totally new order, the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

他是願意跟神職人員政權裡的其他人合作，還是他想要一個全新的秩序，也就是伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的終結。

Every time there's a wave of protests in Iran, and

每次伊朗出現一波抗議潮，而且

there's been waves of protest every few years, many ask, is this going to mean the end of the Islamic Republic.

過去幾年每隔幾年都會有抗議潮，很多人都會問，這會不會意味著伊斯蘭共和國的終結。

But even in January, there were no cracks in the security forces, no major defections.

但即使在一月，安全部隊也沒有出現裂痕，沒有重大的脫逃。

Well, we know day after day the Israeli American attacks are killing Iranian leaders.

嗯，我們知道以色列和美國的攻擊一天比一天殺死伊朗的領導人。

The last number we had was that 49 very senior leaders had already been killed, including the top cleric, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.

我們最後的數字是，包括最高領導人、最高精神領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊在內，已有 49 位非常資深的領導人被殺。

He was killed in the first wave of attacks on Saturday.

他在週六的第一波攻擊中身亡。

So far, even though there has been several significant damage to the leadership at the buildings, to their offices, to the military bases, there's still no sign, no one is defecting.

到目前為止，即使領導層、他們的辦公室、軍事基地都遭受了幾次重大損害，但仍然沒有跡象，沒有人脫逃。

到目前為止，我們還沒看到任何裂痕。

So so far, even though it's under attack, the regime seems to be holding.

所以到目前為止，即使受到攻擊，這個政權似乎還撐得住。

The United States armed forces conducted an extraordinary military operation in the capital of Venezuela.

美國軍方在委內瑞拉首都執行了一次非同尋常的軍事行動。

President Trump talked about what happened in Venezuela.

President Trump 談到了在委內瑞拉發生的事。

In January, where with American military action, they were able to extract the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.

一月份，美國軍方透過行動，成功將委內瑞拉總統 Nicolas Maduro 帶走。

His wife insisted on going with him, too, and he's now on trial in New York.

他的妻子也堅持要跟他一起去，他現在正在紐約接受審判。

And President Trump's administration is working with what's left of his order.

而 President Trump 的政府正在與他殘餘的勢力合作。

It's not that simple in the Islamic Republic of Iran that you would get one person who may be more pragmatic.

在伊斯蘭共和國，事情沒那麼簡單，你不會找到一個可能比較務實的人。

Suspicion and hostility towards the United States, more broadly to the west, runs deep in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

在伊斯蘭共和國，對美國，更廣泛地對西方，懷疑和敵意根深蒂固。

And there are layers and layers of security, political, ideological organizations.

而且有層層疊疊的安全、政治、意識形態組織。

It isn't just a question of taking off the top and you can work with the new order.

這不只是把頂層拿掉，你就能跟新秩序合作的問題。

But there is discussion that perhaps if there is new leading.

但有討論說，或許如果出現新的領導。

President Trump has said, well, we're looking for new leaders.

President Trump 說，嗯，我們在尋找新的領導人。

He said, most of the leaders that we had in mind are now dead.

他說，我們原本屬意的領導人大多都已經死了。

And, of course, President Trump keeps changing his mind.

當然，President Trump 想法一直在變。

Sometimes he talks about changing the regime, and sometimes he talks about change in the regime.

有時候他說要改變政權，有時候他說要政權改變。

Could the people of Iran even take over their government?

伊朗人民甚至有可能接管他們的政府嗎？

We saw in January an extraordinary wave of protests which went right across the country, and

我們在1月看到一股非凡的抗議浪潮席捲全國，

it was put down with lethal force, causing thousands, many thousands of death, the greatest number in Iranian history.

並以致命武力鎮壓，造成數千、非常非常多人死亡，是伊朗史上最多。

Even before this war, Iran was at a crossroads, pulling in different directions.

在這場戰爭之前，伊朗就已經處於十字路口，拉扯著不同方向。

而現在，這個國家正處於戰爭狀態。

And even those Iranians who would like to go out on the streets to call for change, they're now trying to help protect themselves against the missiles which are landing in Tehran and many other cities.

即使是那些想走上街頭呼籲改變的伊朗人，現在也試圖保護自己，免受落在德黑蘭和許多其他城市飛彈的襲擊。

Iranians now feel conflicting emotions, and

they've been warned by the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards that if you go out into the streets to protest you'll meet an iron fist and be considered a collaborator.

而且他們被精英伊斯蘭革命衛隊警告，如果走上街頭抗議，將會遭到鐵腕鎮壓，並被視為合作者。

This war is being regarded by the leaders of the Islamic Republic as a battle for survival.

這場戰爭被伊斯蘭共和國的領導人視為一場生存之戰。

And Iranians now are asking, is it a battle for their survival, too?

而伊朗人現在正在問，這也是他們生存之戰嗎？

It's hard to give an exact idea what the people of Iran are thinking.

很難確切知道伊朗人民在想什麼。

這是一個幅員遼闊的國家，有九千兩百萬人口。

There are no reliable opinion polls, and the Internet is always restricted.

沒有可靠的民意調查，網路也總是受到限制。

But I was really struck when we went to Tehran in February, just how many people came up to us and says, we need change now.

但當我們二月去德黑蘭時，真的讓我印象深刻，有多少人主動來找我們說，我們現在就需要改變。

For some people, it's simply a question of making their lives better.

對一些人來說，這純粹是讓生活變得更好的問題。

Remember that this last wave of protests had been triggered by financial woes, by the spiraling inflation.

請記得，這一波最新的抗議活動是由財務困境、不斷飆升的通貨膨脹所引發的。

And also the currency, the real currency, in free fall against the dollar.

還有貨幣，裡亞爾，對美元匯率自由落體。

They just want a normal life and they want the international sanctions to be lifted.

他們只想過正常生活，希望解除國際制裁。

But for other Iranians, there are no quick fixes.

但對其他伊朗人來說，沒有什麼速成的辦法。

The only way to bring about change is to change the Islamic Republic of Iran to bring down the current order.

唯一的改變方式就是推翻伊朗伊斯蘭共和國，瓦解現有的政權。

How many people came up to us and they wanted.

Their emotion was so raw after what had happened in January during the crackdown.

在一月份鎮壓事件發生後，他們的情緒非常真實。

Some people burst down and broke down in tears.

So those are people who were hoping that the end of the top leadership would bring about the end of regime.

所以這些人原本希望最高領導層的結束能帶來政權的終結。

But as this war goes on, they know it's not that easy.

但隨著這場戰爭持續，他們知道事情沒那麼簡單。

How many people support the current regime?

We do know that, for example, when you take the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated in the early hours of this war, that there are those who revered him and they were those who reviled him.

我們知道的是，舉例來說，最高領導人哈米尼，他在這場戰爭初期被暗殺了，有些人崇拜他，也有人憎恨他。

But I think you can say everyone, no matter whether they support the government or don't support the government, before this war started, they knew something had to change.

但我想你可以說，無論他們是否支持政府，在這場戰爭開始前，大家都知道有些事情必須改變。

Change in Iran's relationship with the world, particularly with the west, and

伊朗與世界的關係必須改變，特別是與西方國家，

most of all with the United States, and change in their own lives.

還有，最重要的是與美國，以及他們自身的生活也必須改變。