Name: 川普國情諮文前的民調低點，到底發生了什麼事？ (Enten on Trump’s pre-State of the Union polling lows)
Uploaded: 2026-02-23T21:36:13.000Z
Duration: 10 min 53 s

Sienna's Harry Antin is running the numbers on this one for us.

Sienna 的 Harry Antin 正在為我們分析這些數字。

Harry, what's your take with what you're looking at on how people are feeling about how Trump is doing in this moment?

Harry，你看了這些數據後，覺得大家現在對川普的表現有什麼看法？

I would borrow the phrasing of Tony Blair, of course, the former prime Minister of Great Britain saying, weak, weak, weak.

我想借用英國前首相東尼·布萊爾的話，他說：「弱、弱、弱。」

It was weak over there in the United Kingdom.

It is weak here in the United States when it comes to President Trump.

在美國，就川普總統來說，表現也很弱。

好的，我們現在來到這個階段。

The snow is up to the knees here in New York City and Trump seems to be well underneath it at this point.

紐約市這裡的雪都到膝蓋了，川普在這個時候似乎也深陷其中。

Compare that to where he was in 2020, 2019 and 2018 in term one going into those state of unions.

跟他在2020年、2019年和2018年第一任期進入國情諮文時的表現相比。

Donald Trump has never been weaker going into a State of the Union address, according to our CNN polling, than he is right now, and weaker by a considerable amount.

根據我們CNN的民調，唐納·川普在進入國情諮文時從來沒有這麼弱過，而且差距還不小。

So this is his first term to his second term.

所以這是他的第一任期到第二任期。

How does it compare to other presidents at this point in their second term, though?

不過，跟其他總統在第二任期的這個時候比起來，表現如何呢？

It's not just that Donald Trump is breaking records compared to himself when it comes to State of Unions.

不只是唐納·川普在國情諮文的表現上打破了自己的紀錄。

He's breaking records compared to other presidents at this point going into a State of the Union.

他在進入國情諮文時，也打破了跟其他總統在這個時間點的紀錄。

Look at all the 21st century presidents on your screen right here about at this point, a second term going into the State of the union.

看看螢幕上這些21世紀的總統，在第二任期進入國情諮文的差不多這個時候。

You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that minus 27 points is considerably lower than minus 15 or minus 11.

你不需要是個數學天才，就知道負27點遠低於負15或負11。

So Trump isn't just weaker than he's ever been going into a State of the Union address.

所以川普不只是進入國情諮文時比他以往任何時候都弱。

He is weaker than any other president this century going into a State of the Union address at this point in their second term.

他在第二任期進入國情諮文的差不多這個時候，比這個世紀任何其他總統都弱。

You're talking about it all throughout the show as we're going through these numbers.

我們在節目中，隨著這些數字的推進，一直在談論這件事。

But talk about what is driving this drop for the president.

但來談談是什麼導致了總統的這項下降。

I said record was the name of the game when it came to this segment.

我說過，在這個環節中，紀錄就是一切。

Talking about the lowest Trump has ever been going into the State of the Union, the lowest that any president has been this century going into a State of the Union at this point in their presidency.

談論川普在進入國情諮文時創下的最低紀錄，也是這個世紀任何總統在 presidency 的這個時間點進入國情諮文的最低紀錄。

It is also the weakest that Donald Trump has ever been with independence.

這也是唐納·川普在無黨籍選民中的最低點。

We've been talking about it the past few months.

我們過去幾個月一直在談論這件事。

At this point, a year ago, Donald Trump was at -13 points.

在這個時間點，一年前，唐納·川普是負13點。

Look at this, -47 points among independents, the lowest Donald Trump has ever been in either of his two terms as president.

看看這個，無黨籍選民中有負47點，這是唐納·川普在他擔任總統的兩個任期中的最低點。

When you're 47 points underwater with independence, that's the name of the game.

當你在無黨籍選民中落後47點時，這就是關鍵。

And that is why Donald Trump is near record lows overall and the lowest he's ever been going into a State of the Union address.

這就是為什麼唐納·川普的整體支持率接近歷史低點，也是他在進入國情諮文時的最低點。

We have a new CNN poll out this morning with President Trump's approval rating at 36%.

我們今天早上有一份新的 CNN 民調出爐，川普總統的淨聲望評分是 36%。

That's lower than President Biden was at this point four years ago, and it's down 12 percentage points since a year ago.

這比拜登總統四年前同期還要低，而且比去年下降了 12 個百分點。

Just Last February, just 32% of Americans say the president is focused on the right priorities, 68%.

就在去年二月，只有 32% 的美國人認為總統關注的是正確的優先事項，68%。

Nearly 7 in 10Americans say he is focused on the wrong things.

將近 7 成的美國人認為他關注的是錯誤的事情。

This morning, the president had this to say about tomorrow's address.

今天早上，總統對明天的演講是這麼說的。

We have the most activity we've ever had.

I'm making a speech tomorrow night and you'll be hearing me say that.

我明天晚上要發表演講，你們會聽到我這麼說。

I mean, it's going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about.

我的意思是，這會是一場很長的演講，因為我們有很多事情要談。

I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters.

我和一群很棒的記者們在一起。

Kristen, I'm going to start with you and the we just showed the overall approval rating, but the story is deep in the poll with a couple of, actually several of the key demographics.

Kristen，我先從妳開始，我們剛剛播了整體的淨聲望評分，但這份民調的深入報導，其實有好幾個、甚至好幾個關鍵的族群。

This is one of the most remarkable stories here.

這是其中一個最令人驚訝的結果。

If you look at where the president was In January of 2021, this is January 6th, the attack on the Capitol.

如果我們看看總統在2021年1月的狀況，這是1月6日，國會山莊遇襲。

Now he's at 26% among independents, which means only a quarter of independents in the United States of America approve of the job that he is doing.

現在他在無黨籍選民中的支持度是26%，這代表全美國只有四分之一的無黨籍選民認同他的施政表現。

Yeah, and he's very aware of that now, of course, I don't think any of us are surprised that he's going to be giving a long speech tomorrow.

對，他當然現在很清楚這一點，我想我們都不意外他明天會發表一篇很長的演講。

不過，以他的任期來說，算是很長的了。

I mean, that seems like it might be really, really long.

我的意思是，那聽起來可能會非常、非常長。

我的意思是，他自己說會很長。

But, you know, when it comes to independents, when it comes to the job that he's doing, there is a lot of frustration inside of the White House.

不過，你知道的，就無黨籍選民來說，就他的施政表現來說，白宮裡其實有很多不滿。

It's not as though he is not Seeing these polls, we know that he is reliant on these polls.

並不是說他沒看到這些民調，我們知道他很依賴這些民調。

We know that he is seeing polls on a regular basis from his own in house pollsters.

我們知道他自己的內部民調人員會定期提供民調給他看。

And that's why you're hearing a lot more frustration when it comes to the President when you're hearing him give these speeches saying essentially even just now in this event that he was doing with these angel families, talking about how the media never gives him good coverage, he never gets credit for anything that he's doing.

這也是為什麼當你聽到總統在演講時，會聽到更多的不滿，就像他剛才在活動上跟這些天使家庭說的，抱怨媒體從來不給他好報導，他做的任何事都得不到肯定。

He believes that this is the media's fault, that this is his own PR's fault and that's the reason that he's not getting the credit.

他認為這是媒體的錯，是他自己公關團隊的錯，所以他才得不到肯定。

Not because of what he is focused on, it's because how people feel out there.

不是因為他關注的重點，而是因為外面的民眾感受如何。

And you obviously every day talk to people who are on the ballot in just a few months.

而且你每天都會跟幾個月後就要參選的人們聊到。

I know the answer to this question, but I'll just ask it anyways.

我知道這個問題的答案，但我還是想問。

Can he actually show some empathy to what the American public is feeling right now, which is not everything is so great.

他能不能展現一點同理心，去感受美國民眾現在的心情，也就是事情並沒有那麼美好。

And trying to cheerlead his way into convincing Americans that they're not feeling how they're feeling.

然後試圖用打氣的方式，說服美國人他們感受到的不是真的。

Can he move in a direction saying, look, we understand there's pain right now that people are feeling, we are working on it to deal with it.

他能不能換個說法，說「看，我們知道大家現在很痛苦，我們正在努力解決。」

We're dealing with X, we're dealing with Y, we're dealing with Z.

So I think we can expect him to try to try to convince a very skeptical American public.

所以我覺得我們可以預期他會試圖說服非常懷疑的美國大眾。

Look, tomorrow is going to be probably his biggest audience he's going to have before the midterm elections and his opportunity to try to reset some Americans perceptions of how the job that he is doing in office.

看，明天大概是他中期選舉前最大的觀眾群了，這也是他試圖重塑部分美國人對他執政表現看法的機會。

But this midterm is going to be a referendum on him, which is why those numbers are freaking out Republicans who are going to be on the ballot in November.

但這次期中選舉將是對他的公投，這也是為什麼那些數字讓即將在十一月參選的共和黨人感到恐慌。

Yeah, I mean independents are, I mean not only the swing voters, but they are the sort of telltale sign of, of where things are headed with regard to the next time there's a major election.

是啊，我的意思是，無黨籍選民，我的意思是，不只是搖擺選民，他們是接下來有重大選舉時，事情發展方向的指標。

And it's really, really bad for Republicans.

這對共和黨來說真的很、真的很糟糕。

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川普國情諮文前的民調低點，到底發生了什麼事？ (Enten on Trump’s pre-State of the Union polling lows)

struggle

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skeptical

convince