Name: 央行大觀：英格蘭銀行鴿派「正在獲勝」！ (Macro Matters: Bank of England doves 'are winning')
Uploaded: 2026-02-19T17:22:42.000Z
Duration: 5 min 31 s

So is the bank of England ready to catch up?

那麼英格蘭銀行準備好跟上了嗎？

This is macro matters and we're talking about the uk.

這是宏觀經濟要事，我們在談論英國。

Catherine Mahon has never been shy about staking out her position.

Catherine Mahon 從來都不避諱表達她的立場。

Since joining the bank of England in 2021, she's become one of the most forceful, dovish voices, warning that years of high inflation have left lasting scars.

自從 2021 年加入英格蘭銀行以來，她已成為最有力的鴿派聲音之一，警告說多年的高通膨留下了持久的創傷。

Now, inflation has fallen to its lowest level since March 2025 and, and

現在，通膨已降至 2025 年 3 月以來的最低點，而且

markets are betting that rate cuts are coming.

So is man's argument starting to win the day?

那麼，Man 的論點開始佔上風了嗎？

Let's ask Liz Martins, senior UK economist at hsbc.

我們來問問 HSBC 的英國資深經濟學家 Liz Martins。

So, Liz, petrol and airfares helped pull January inflation down to a 10 month low, but

Liz，汽油和機票幫助將一月份的通膨拉低至 10 個月新低，但是

No, we do think inflation has now peaked.

不，我們確實認為通膨已經達到頂峰。

Service inflation a little bit higher than maybe some were expecting, although it was in line with our own forecast, and

服務業通膨比一些人預期的略高一點，儘管這與我們的預測一致，而且

momentum is returning to something much more normal.

動能正在恢復到更正常的水準。

So we think overall headline inflation and indeed services inflation have peaked.

所以我們認為總體通膨，尤其是服務業通膨，已經達到頂峰。

And where we'll see that really noticeably should be in the month of April.

而我們真正會明顯看到這一點，應該是在四月份。

If you think back to last year, we had awful April, where all kinds of household prices went up at the same time and it led the overall rate to jump.

如果你回想去年，我們經歷了糟糕的四月，當時各種家庭開支價格同時上漲，導致整體年化通膨率飆升。

Now, this year I'm calling less awful April.

今年我稱之為「較不糟糕的四月」。

So a lot of those rises will still come through, but to a much lesser extent, and

所以，許多漲價還是會出現，但程度會小得多，而且

that will mathematically reduce the annual rate of inflation in April in particular.

這在數學上會降低四月的年化通膨率。

So hopefully that will provide some relief.

Well, the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic and wage growth is slowing.

嗯，失業率已升至疫情以來最高點，薪資增長也在放緩。

So is this the start of something more worrying for the labour market?

那麼，這是否是勞動市場開始出現更令人擔憂的跡象？

Well, the labour market is a bit of a worry.

嗯，勞動市場確實有點令人擔心。

I think there's two narratives out there.

So one narrative, the optimistic one, and

其中一種敘事，也就是樂觀的敘事，

if you talk to recruiters, you'll hear this, is that actually there are a lot of demand for new hiring was pent up because of budget uncertainty.

如果你跟招聘人員聊聊，你就會聽到這個說法，那就是其實因為預算不確定性，有很多新招聘的需求被壓抑了。

You know, people waiting for the budget, waiting for Christmas.

你知道，人們在等待預算、等待聖誕節。

And we'll start to see some of those jobs, jobs being filled now, but

而我們將開始看到其中一些職位，現在正在填補的職位，但

I haven't seen a whole lot of evidence of that yet.

我還沒看到太多這方面的證據。

And we've got some quite timely data on new job postings, for example, which haven't seen much of a recovery at all into the new year.

而且我們有一些關於新職位發布的及時數據，例如，這些數據在新的一年裡並沒有看到太多復甦。

And of course, we're quite a long way past Christmas now and we still haven't seen that recovery.

當然，現在聖誕節已經過去很久了，我們仍然沒有看到這種復甦。

The big question, Liz, the latest data has reinforced expectations of a rate cut in March and June.

大問題是，Liz，最新的數據加強了對三月和六月降息的預期。

Does that align with your outlook and how quickly do you see rates coming down this Year, Yeah.

這是否符合你的展望，以及你認為今年降息的速度有多快？

So we have three cuts, cuts in our own forecast this year, down to taking bank rates 3% by the end of the year.

所以我們預測今年會有三次降息，到年底銀行利率將降至 3%。

To be honest, the timing of those cuts is incredibly uncertain.

說實話，這些降息的時間點非常不確定。

The bank of England sort of, you know, the messaging changes seemingly from one meeting to another.

英格蘭銀行，你知道，訊息似乎從一次會議變到另一次會議。

So it does jump around in terms of expectations.

所以它在預期方面確實會跳動。

At the moment, the market is pricing very high probability that the next cut will come on the 19th of March.

目前，市場正在定價極高的可能性，認為下一次降息將在 3 月 19 日發生。

And generally speaking, the Boeing probably doesn't want to deliver a big surprise to the market.

總體來說，英格蘭銀行大概不太想給市場一個大驚喜。

So March is possible, April is definitely possible as well, if they want to wait and see a few more bits of data.

所以三月有可能，四月也絕對有可能，如果他們想再觀察一些數據的話。

And then I think it will all come down to the combination of that data that we've been talking about.

然後我認為這一切都會取決於我們一直在談論的那些數據的組合。

Does unemployment continue to rise or does it stabilize?

失業率會繼續上升還是會穩定下來？

But we do think they can cut two more times this year and ultimately get 3% by the end of the year, whether it's sooner or perhaps takes a bit longer.

但我們確實認為他們今年可以再降息兩次，最終在年底達到 3%，無論是早一點還是晚一點。

Well, Chief Economist Hugh Pill has warned that rates may need to stay higher for longer.

嗯，首席經濟學家 Hugh Pill 已警告，利率可能會需要維持較高水平較長時間。

Is agreement and consensus among the NPC still a long way off?

NPC 之間的共識和協調是否還離得很遠？

Yeah, there's a pretty clear divide in the NPC between people who think the biggest worry at the moment is soft demand, rising unemployment, the risk of ultimately an undershoot in inflation, and

是的，NPC 內部存在明顯的分歧，有些人認為目前最大的擔憂是需求疲軟、失業率上升，最終通膨可能低於預期，而

those who think the biggest risk is for inflation to stay high or maybe even pop back up again.

另一些人則認為最大的風險是通膨維持高位，甚至可能再次反彈。

And, you know, to be honest, it is a very uncertain time.

說實話，這確實是一個非常不確定的時期。

And I think both of those arguments can be compelling.

而且我認為這兩種論點都有說服力。

At the moment, though, I think the dovish side is winning the argument from the data.

不過目前來看，我認為從數據來看，鴿派的論點比較佔優勢。

You know, we've talked about slowing pay growth, rising unemployment, lower inflation, and

你知道的，我們已經談到薪資增長放緩、失業率上升、通膨下降，

so at the moment, the dovish side is kind of just about winning the argument.

所以目前來看，鴿派的論點差不多是贏了。

But as we move through the year, we'll, we'll find out whether, you know, some of those hawkish concerns do prove right, because after all, companies have been under a lot of pressure, margins have been squeezed, and

但隨著我們進入今年，我們會發現，你知道的，那些鷹派的擔憂是否會成真，畢竟，企業一直承受著很大的壓力，利潤被壓縮，

if companies want to rebuild those margins, you know, they may want to put prices up down the line.

如果企業想重建利潤，你知道的，他們可能會想在未來提高價格。

So, you know, I think, I think Hugh Pill's concerns are absolutely justified.

所以，你知道的，我認為，我認為 Hugh Pill 的擔憂是絕對合理的。

這確實是一個非常不確定的時期。

So I think the near term outlook is a bit more dovish.

所以我認為短期前景比較偏向鴿派。

But there is a big question mark over the medium term.

Well, finally, Liz, some are saying that the UK bonds are expected to rally in 2026, pushing borrowed costs are lowest since 2024.

好，最後，Liz，有人說英國債券預計會在 2026 年反彈，將借貸成本推向自 2024 年以來的最低點。

Yeah, well, I think there's a few different factors here.

嗯，我認為這裡有幾個不同的因素。

I mean, on the one hand, you know, you have got still heavy issuance and you've got still got a sizable fiscal deficit, which is part of the reason why yields have stayed higher.

也就是說，一方面，你知道的，你仍然有大量的發行，而且你仍然有一個相當大的財政赤字，這也是殖利率保持較高的原因之一。

But if we are right and bank rate is coming down to 3%, that's a bit lower than what the market is pricing at 325 and then that should open up some scope for slightly lower gilt yields.

但如果我們是對的，銀行利率將降至 3%，這比市場預期的 3.25% 要低一些，那麼這應該會為公債殖利率略微下降騰出一些空間。

Of course, politics is always a risk to that and uncertainty plays into that.

當然，政治因素始終是一個風險，不確定性也會影響其中。

But yeah, I think slight, slightly low yields is absolutely possible.

但是的，我認為略微降低的殖利率是絕對有可能的。

Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com.

別忘了你可以在 Reuters.com 上觀看更多影片。