Name: 川普的製造業復興是真的嗎？！ (Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?)
Uploaded: 2026-02-15T21:58:08.000Z
Duration: 10 min 28 s

President Trump campaigned on returning manufacturing growth to United States and the White House.

川普總統競選時承諾要讓美國製造業增長重返白宮。

I looked this up, says that they are surging forward with unprecedented momentum.

我查了一下，說他們正以空前的動能向前衝刺。

Manufacturing output had been declining, actually quite steadily, going back to even before Trump.

製造業產出其實一直在持續地下降，甚至比川普上任前就開始了。

It did go up in January, but that's one month.

一月份確實有上升，但那只有一個月。

And I don't think we can draw any conclusions from that.

而且我認為我們無法從中得出任何結論。

But essentially our manufacturing continues to go down, and for the most part, manufacturing employment goes down.

但基本上，我們的製造業持續下滑，而且大部分情況下，製造業就業也在下滑。

Productivity has been bouncing around a bit.

And to be fair to the president, I think you have to say not yet.

說句公道話，總統方面，我認為你得說還沒有。

Any sign that his policies have changed the trajectory of manufacturing in the United States?

他的政策有任何跡象改變美國製造業的軌跡嗎？

It takes a while to build a plant, to get up and running.

建造工廠、讓它投入運營需要一些時間。

What kind of time horizon, you know, manufacturing.

你知道，製造業的時間範圍是多久？

Well, are we looking at to really grow manufacturing?

嗯，我們是要看多久才能真正發展製造業？

But the question is, is anybody actually doing, and

I don't know, I would say anecdotally, I haven't heard anybody say any CEOs that they're rushing out to build plants here because of all this.

我不知道，我會說軼事地聽來，我沒聽說有任何執行長說他們因為這些原因紛紛湧現要來這裡建造工廠。

There's obviously a huge boon in construction going on in data centers, which don't manufacture things.

顯然，資料中心正在大興土木，但它們並非製造業。

But it's a capital investment in the US But I don't have any sign or any idea that the number of car plants in this country is increasing because of what Mr.

但這是在美國的資本投資，我沒有任何跡象或想法顯示這個國家的汽車工廠數量正在因為川普先生所做的事情而增加。

An important tool for President Trump in his toolbox on manufacturing are tariffs, and

川普總統工具箱裡一個重要的製造業工具就是關稅，

he certainly has imposed a lot of tariffs.

Can we bring back manufacturing through tariffs?

我們能透過關稅把製造業帶回來嗎？

Even Alexander Hamilton advocated for tariffs in a different set of circumstances.

即使是亞歷山大·漢密爾頓在不同的情況下也主張關稅。

The idea was to nurture young industries in the US by using tariffs to protect them.

這個想法是透過關稅來保護美國年輕的產業，以培養它們。

And so there was something to be said of it.

Keynes actually advocated, surprisingly, for tariffs in the Depression, but

凱因斯其實主張，令人驚訝的是，在大蕭條時期支持關稅，但

partly because the pound was so overvalued, it was the only way Britain could end up not being flooded with imports.

部分原因是因為英鎊被嚴重高估，這是英國避免進口氾濫的唯一方法。

So there are places and roles for tariffs, but

所以關稅是有其存在的空間和作用，但是

you really want to use them to protect an industry that would ultimately become very competitive globally, not as some kind of permanent way to offset the fact that other countries can perhaps make things cheaper and better.

你真的應該用它們來保護一個最終能在全球競爭的產業，而不是作為一種永久性的手段，來抵銷其他國家可能生產更便宜、更好的東西的事實。

There's another function that President Trump seems to be using tariffs for, which is to extort or command negotiations with foreign countries to make investment.

川普總統似乎還有另一種使用關稅的功能，那就是透過勒索或命令與外國談判，來促成投資。

I mean, if we have Stellantis saying $13 billion, they're going to invest, Japan is saying $500 billion, they're going to invest.

我的意思是，如果Stellantis說要投資130億美元，日本說要投資5000億美元。

Is that a way to bring manufacturing back by basically getting countries and companies to agree they're going to come invest in manufacturing plants here?

這是否是一種讓國家和公司同意在這裡投資製造業工廠，進而帶回製造業的方法？

I have no particular reason to think it is because the tariffs are imposed on companies.

我沒有特別理由這樣認為，因為關稅是針對公司課徵的。

The companies are separate from the countries.

So the countries can't really say to the companies, go build a plant.

所以各國不能真的跟公司說，去建造工廠。

The companies might do it if they felt that the tariffs drove them in that direction.

如果公司覺得關稅讓他們朝那個方向走，他們可能會這麼做。

But I don't see any real evidence that that's having much of an impact.

但我沒看到任何實際證據顯示這有什麼影響。

I mean, we've talked about automobiles before.

我的意思是，我們之前討論過汽車。

What is the prospect of having more automobiles manufactured in the United states, either by U.S.

在美國製造更多汽車的前景如何，無論是美國公司

We've kind of put a bit of a speed bump in front of automobiles.

我們有點在汽車前面設了個減速帶。

我們告訴他們，要製造電動車。

And we backed it up with tax credits, and they all rushed around to build them.

我們還提供了稅收抵免作為後盾，他們紛紛湧現去製造。

Now you can see them all taking these large charges to essentially either get out of or modify their EV business because the Trump administration is anti ev.

現在你可以看到他們都大舉削減或修改電動車業務，因為川普政府反對電動車。

So we haven't really done the auto industry any great favors.

所以我們並沒有真正幫助汽車產業。

There's also a story this week about Ford, I think, losing $900 million because of Tarif.

這週還有個關於 Ford 的消息，我認為他們因為關稅損失了 9 億美元。

I'm not sure whether Trump understands this or not, but

我不確定川普是否明白這一點，但

when you put a tariffs on auto parts, you're actually hurting what we call the OEMs, the original equipment manufacturers in the US because the parts become more expensive.

當你對汽車零件徵收關稅時，你實際上是在傷害我們稱之為 OEM 的美國原始設備製造商，因為零件變得更貴了。

We're seeing auto manufacturers overseas struggle, particularly in the UK and Germany.

我們看到海外的汽車製造商陷入困境，尤其是在英國和德國。

Does it matter whether the company is owned by a foreign country?

公司由哪個國家擁有，這重要嗎？

I mean, why don't we just let BYD come and manufacture automobiles in the United States?

我的意思是，我們為什麼不讓比亞迪來美國製造汽車呢？

The first part of the answer is, do we think they want to?

答案的第一部分是，你認為他們想這麼做嗎？

It's like Apple moving iPhone assembly out of China.

這就像蘋果把 iPhone 組裝移出中國一樣。

They can do it, but it's much more expensive.

他們可以做到，但成本會高很多。

I would think from our point of view, you're right.

我認為從我們的角度來看，你是對的。

People sometimes get confused between companies and jobs.

人們有時候會混淆公司和工作。

I mean, if you want jobs, then you want the plants to be built here.

我的意思是，如果你想要工作，那麼你就希望工廠在這裡建造。

And conversely, having a US Company build a plant in some other country doesn't help us in terms of jobs.

反過來說，一家美國公司在其他國家建造工廠，對我們的工作機會並沒有幫助。

If we want to talk about how do we get more economic progress here, the idea would be to make more things here rather than somewhere else.

如果我們要談論如何在這裡獲得更多經濟發展，那就是要在這裡生產更多東西，而不是在別的地方。

When we talk about tariffs, it may have effects on companies or even potentially on countries in negotiating.

當我們談論關稅時，它可能會影響公司，甚至可能影響國家之間的談判。

I mean, what is the price to American consumers?

我的意思是，美國消費者要付出的價格是多少？

Of keeping out very inexpensive BYD automobiles.

Well, this is something that has not gotten the kind of attention it should get.

嗯，這件事沒有得到應有的關注。

And the rough math is we sell 16 million cars here a year.

大致的數字是，我們一年在這裡賣出 1600 萬輛汽車。

比亞迪可以賣，而且他們只生產電動車。

So it'd be EVs here at, I think conservatively at $10,000 less than a comparable US car.

所以在這裡賣的電動車，我保守估計會比同等級的美國汽車便宜 1 萬美元。

And so you're talking about $160 billion a year that consumers in the US are paying because we feel it's important.

所以你說的是，美國的消費者因為我們覺得這很重要，一年要多付 1600 億美元。

I'm not meaning at all to be sarcastic about this, that we feel it's important to have an auto industry in the US we could just open the doors.

我不是在諷刺，而是我們覺得在美國擁有汽車產業很重要，我們可以就這樣敞開大門。

We have 100% tariff on them now, as you probably know.

你可能知道，我們現在對它們有百分之百的關稅。

consumers would be amazed at how inexpensive and how good these cars are.

消費者會驚訝於這些車子有多便宜、多好。

So that would be great for consumers, at least in the short term.

所以這對消費者來說會很棒，至少短期內是這樣。

What are the strategic disadvantages to the United States, either economically or even in terms of national security, of doing that?

這麼做對美國在經濟上，甚至在國家安全方面，會有什麼戰略上的劣勢嗎？

It would be great for consumers in the short run and the long run.

這對消費者來說，短期和長期都會很棒。

And I don't think that the economic impact of all that would be a negative for the US Might even be a positive.

我不認為這一切的經濟影響對美國會是負面的，甚至可能是正面的。

But I do think there's a really important question that I don't have a great answer to, which you alluded to, which is the strategic imports.

但我認為有個非常重要的問題，我還沒有很好的答案，你剛剛也提到了，那就是戰略進口。

Obviously, everybody knows that In World War II, we took these auto plants and they started making planes and tanks and all this other stuff.

顯然，大家都知道第二次世界大戰時，我們把這些汽車工廠改造成生產飛機、坦克和其他各種東西。

I don't think we're going to be fighting a war like that again, hopefully at any time in the foreseeable future.

我希望在可預見的未來，我們不會再打那樣的戰爭了。

But the question is, do you want to have that kind of industrial capacity in case we have another Covid and we want to make N26 masks or whatever?

但問題是，萬一我們又遇到像 COVID 這樣的疫情，需要生產 N26 口罩或其他的東西，你願不願意擁有那樣的工業產能？

How much do you want to pay to have all this manufacturing capacity here in case we need it someday?

為了以防萬一我們哪天需要這些製造業產能，我們願意支付多少代價？

As you probably know, manufacturing jobs now pay less on average than service jobs.

你可能也知道，製造業的平均薪資現在比服務業的薪資還要低。

So the idea that these, you know, the romantic idea that these are good jobs and so to lose these manufacturing jobs would be bad for America.

所以那種認為這些是好工作，失去這些製造業工作對美國來說很糟糕的浪漫想法。

You know, the everyday Americans is false.

We would need to replace them with other jobs.

我們需要用其他工作來取代它們。

字幕列表影片播放

川普的製造業復興是真的嗎？！ (Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?)

stuff

ultimately

essentially

debate