Name: 高市早苗規劃日本新經濟藍圖！| DW 新聞 (Sanae Takaichi charts a new economic course for Japan | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-14T17:14:35.000Z
Duration: 12 min 9 s

She already gained quite a lot of support from the voters.

她已經贏得了相當多的選民支持。

You know, they gave her a mandate to govern.

你知道，他們給了她執政的授權。

Now the dialogue with the market has to begin.

Probably the best thing that the bank of Japan can do is look at whether that that weekend is indeed inviting unwanted imported inflation.

日本央行最好的做法，可能是看看那個週末是否真的會引進不受歡迎的輸入性通膨。

The government might have to get out of its own way a little bit.

I'm not saying that fiscal stimulus should never be used, but, but

我不是說財政刺激永遠不能用，但是，但是

the type of fiscal stimulus should be considered.

Japan's Sanae Takeichi has just won the strongest majority for a Japanese government in more than 70 years.

日本的高市早苗贏得了日本政府七十多年來最強勢的多數席位。

Now she has to deal with an economy hindered by weak private consumption, an aging population and inflationary pressures.

現在她必須處理一個受到私人消費疲軟、人口老化和通膨壓力阻礙的經濟體。

The cost of rice, for example, doubled last year in Japan.

像是日本去年的米價就翻了一倍。

Naomi Fink is chief global strategist at Imova Asset Management.

Naomi Fink 是 Imova 資產管理公司的全球首席策略師。

Now, looking broadly, what problem do you think Takaichi is trying to solve most?

那，從大方向來看，妳覺得高市早苗最想解決的問題是什麼？

Is it slow growth, weak wages, or national security?

是成長遲緩、薪資疲軟，還是國家安全？

And can she realistically fix all three of these at once?

而且她真的有可能一次解決這三個問題嗎？

Well, first of all, I think that the economy is doing a lot better than it was during her mentor's time, Prime Minister Abe.

嗯，首先，我認為經濟狀況比她的導師安倍總理時期好很多了。

And paradoxically, that makes it perhaps a little bit more difficult to determine policy.

而矛盾的是，這反而可能讓制定政策變得稍微困難一些。

In Abe's situation, it was pretty much appropriate to engage in fiscal easing and monetary easing in size simultaneously.

在安倍時期，同時進行大規模的財政寬鬆和貨幣寬鬆是相當合適的。

However, we have a very different economy.

不過，我們的經濟狀況很不一樣。

Now you mentioned inflation and that makes a big difference.

現在你提到了通膨，這就差很多了。

So if you were to engage in some sort of unfettered fiscal stimulus, then you also risk putting upside pressure on inflation.

所以如果你要進行某種程度的無限制財政刺激，你也會有通膨上漲壓力的風險。

And that is what ails households right now because we are seeing an expansion in growth.

這就是現在家庭面臨的問題，因為我們看到經濟正在擴張。

One of the reasons why households consumption is hindered is because of the rise in prices, especially in food.

家庭消費受阻的原因之一，是因為物價上漲，特別是食物。

So usually inflation is the central bank's job.

所以通常，通膨是中央銀行的職責。

So fighting inflation is the bank of Japan's job.

And while the government might be able to put in near term pressures to try to keep growth going, usually what its job really is is to manage the long term fiscal situation.

雖然政府或許能在短期內施壓以維持經濟成長，但通常它的職責是管理長期的財政狀況。

And while nothing is going to fall apart tomorrow, it's more of a credibility and trust situation.

雖然明天不會有什麼事情崩壞，但這更多是關於信譽和信任的問題。

So the markets now have had a bit of time to process this landslide victory.

所以市場現在已經有一點時間來消化這次壓倒性的勝利了。

How do you think they will judge Takaishi now?

你覺得市場現在會怎麼評價高市呢？

Well, for one, we still have budgets forthcoming and a lot of investors are wondering how those budgets.

嗯，首先，我們還有即將公佈的預算，很多投資人都在想那些預算。

Well, what, what the content of those budgets will be and how those budgets are going to be financed.

嗯，那些預算的內容會是什麼，以及預算要怎麼籌措資金。

Are they going to be debt financed and how much?

會不會是靠債務融資？又會融資多少？

And if there is a fe feeling by the markets that debt financing is going over the top, then we might see that play out in bond markets.

如果市場感覺債務融資有點太過頭了，那債券市場可能會出現一些反應。

So I think it's fully possible for Prime Minister Takaichi to establish a healthy dialogue with markets and gain their trust.

所以我覺得高市總理完全有可能跟市場建立一個健康的對話，贏得他們的信任。

And also read the signals coming in when there are the initial thoughts about the budgets floated, whether they are going a little bit over the top when it comes to fiscal stock sustainability and it's possible to adjust this way.

同時也能讀懂預算初期的訊號，看看財政刺激的可持續性會不會有點過頭，這樣就可以進行調整。

The whole issue of debt has been something that, that people have been talking about.

債務問題一直是大家都在討論的。

I mean how she made all these promises which were quite broad during the, during the election campaign and Japan already has very high public debt.

畢竟她在競選期間做了很多相當廣泛的承諾，而日本的公共債務已經很高了。

What do you think her threshold would be for too much borrowing, if there is any.

你覺得她對於過度借貸的容忍度會是多少，如果有的話。

Look, Japan already did set some targets a while ago for fiscal responsibility and it didn't have to do with any type of absolute debt to GDP ratio target.

其實日本之前已經設定了一些財政責任的目標，這跟任何絕對的債務對GDP比率目標無關。

But they did say that they wanted to target primary balance and Japan is actually looking like it will achieve that this year.

但他們確實說過，他們想以達成歲計盈餘為目標，而日本今年看起來真的能達成。

But then on the other hand, prior to the election we heard about the, the abandonment of the year to year primary balance targeting.

但另一方面，在選舉前我們聽到說，放棄了逐年的歲計盈餘目標。

So if not that, then there probably has to be another metric signaling responsibility put in place.

所以如果不是這樣，那可能就得有另一個指標來展現責任感了。

And I think at the moment markets aren't really sure what that metric is yet.

我認為目前市場還不太確定那個指標是什麼。

And looking, looking at our policies, I mean some of the issues that, that Japan's faces like Japan has struggled to raise wages for a long time.

看看我們的政策，日本面臨的一些問題，像是日本長期以來薪資一直難以提高。

What specific policies in our plans do you think would actually help to push wages higher?

你認為我們計畫中的哪些具體政策能真正幫助推升薪資？

So I think the main issue here is real wages because nominal wages have been rising for quite some time.

所以我想這裡的主要問題是實質薪資，因為名目薪資已經上漲一段時間了。

So bringing inflation under control is very important, but again that's the bank of Japan's job.

所以控制通膨非常重要，但這又是日本銀行的職責了。

So there the government might have to get out of its own way a little bit.

所以政府或許得稍微讓自己別礙事。

And I mean that in the best possible way.

I'm not saying that fiscal stimulus should never be used, but

我不是說財政刺激永遠不能用，而是

For example, I think there's been some talk of raising the primary tax threshold.

例如，我認為有人在討論提高主要稅收門檻。

我是說，我們是怎麼走到這一步的？

我們一開始是怎麼走到這裡的？

And if inflation continues, it will also go away.

如果通膨持續下去，它也會消失。

That's a pretty solid temporary measure that's not going to create any problems for fiscal credibility.

這是一個相當穩健的臨時措施，不會對財政信譽造成任何問題。

Now I think there's been a greater debate about consumption tax and I think for the moment it's been in the context of do we temporarily exempt food from the consumption tax?

我認為關於消費稅的爭論比較多，而目前大家討論的焦點是，我們是否要暫時豁免食物的消費稅？

And I'm not saying that that's necessarily a bad idea.

我並不是說這一定是個壞主意。

It's just that consumption tax rises in general are hard won measures.

只是說，消費稅的調漲通常都是得來不易的措施。

If you do allow a period of exemption, then how likely are you going to be or how credible are you going to be when you say you're going to reimpose it after two years?

如果你允許一段豁免期，那麼當你說兩年後要重新實施時，你有多大的可能性或可信度？

Because you know, there are a lot, there's a lot that can happen in that two years.

因為你知道，這兩年內會發生很多事。

What's going to enforce that, that reimposition?

And another big factor in the, in the debate has been coming up is, has been the currency.

另一個辯論中的重要因素，也就是最近大家都在討論的，就是匯率。

And are you anticipating, I mean there's an argument between whether Japan needs a weaker or stronger yen.

你預期日圓會走弱還是走強呢？

And you know, Takaichi argued in favor of a weaker yen, but

而高市早苗主張日圓應該走弱，但

後來她又稍微收回了這個說法。

Are you anticipating a weaker or a stronger yen?

And do you think a weaker yen would be good for Japan right now?

你認為日圓走弱對現在的日本是好事嗎？

So one thing we have to keep in mind, especially since recently we've heard a lot of comparisons in the media with, with the Plaza Accords, is that Japan's currency is freely floating now.

所以有一件事我們必須記住，特別是最近媒體常拿來和《廣場協議》做比較，那就是日本的貨幣現在是自由浮動的。

所以政府可能會對此有所行動。

I mean the bank of Japan also might consider it in interest rate setting, especially if the weekend invites in inflation, imported inflation, but

我想日本銀行也可能在設定利率時考慮到這一點，特別是如果日圓走弱引發了通貨膨脹，輸入性通膨，但

really the markets decide the level of the yen.

So right now probably the best thing that the bank of Japan can do is look at whether that weekend is indeed inviting unwanted imported inflation.

所以現在日本銀行最好的做法，大概就是看看日圓走弱是否真的會引發不受歡迎的輸入性通膨。

And as for the government, typically intervention only really happens when moves get disorderly.

至於政府，通常幹預只會在匯率波動變得混亂時才會發生。

And in the absence of those disorderly moves, perhaps it might be a good idea to wait for the bank of Japan to implement monetary policy.

在沒有這種混亂情況下，或許可以等日本銀行實施貨幣政策。

And monetary policy is by nature slow and blunt, but it is the right tool to fight inflation.

而貨幣政策本質上是緩慢且鈍化的，但它是對抗通膨的正確工具。

And if we do get some greater compression of interest rate differentials over time, then some of the pressure for the yen to weaken may alleviate.

如果未來利率差異進一步縮小，那麼日圓走弱的壓力可能會減輕。

Maybe looking at a more, more macro issue that's facing, facing Japan would be the fact that the population is getting older fast.

或許可以看看日本面臨的另一個更宏觀的問題，那就是人口快速老化。

Does Takechi have a real plan to tackle these demographic challenges?

竹中是否有真正解決這些人口結構挑戰的計畫？

Well, so this issue has been known for decades now.

嗯，這個問題已經存在幾十年了。

I think Japan's population started declining in 2010.

我認為日本人口在2010年就開始下降了。